In case you hadn’t noticed, fantasy football is a bit like my full-time job away from my full-time job. And there is nothing wrong with that; there’s a big difference between working hard at something you love to do and simply working hard just to earn a paycheck.

As fantasy football continues to grow year after year, so does the sophistication of the average football fan. When I first started Preseason Matchup Analysis for public consumption back in 2008, it was a noble concept that needed more information than I had available to me at the time. As more and more sites have found their way into the public consciousness and established certain metrics that help break down the game, my knowledge of the game and ability to deliver a finer product has also increased. In the beginning, it was enough to consider a team like Baltimore or Pittsburgh to be bad news for every fantasy player they faced. Now, my PMAs consider factors such as the likelihood of how often a certain receiver will play in the slot against how often he may square off against the defense’s best corner – and how he matches up against him physically. While it is a long process, it is a worthwhile exercise.

It is this kind of painstaking detail that I believe sets “Preseason Matchup Analysis” apart from any other projection method in the business. While last year’s ranks and numbers are considered when predicting game-by-game totals, consistently successful prognosticators and fantasy owners typically “see the future” better than their counterparts. No method is foolproof or all-encompassing; for every Doug Martin, Arian Foster or Eric Decker breakout I get right, there will always the players like Cecil Shorts that go from third- or fourth-string on their team’s depth chart to fantasy stardom.

Also, every set of projections has some bias attached to them; the trick is running the bias through enough filters in order to minimize the impact of it, which I believe this method does. One of the main tenets of my method is based on the notion that elite players will be elite about 75% of the time or more regardless of the matchup. But elite fantasy players are simply the foundation of your team. In order to consistently make the playoffs and succeed in the fantasy postseason, “little things” such as potential matchups play a vital role in determining which good players will perform at an elite level in that week. This method is all about increasing your likelihood of success during the playoffs – a time where there is usually very little separating each of the remaining teams.

Quite often, the best businesses (and their practices) in the real world are the ones that are the most transparent and adaptable to change. It’s hard to be more transparent than I am each year with my projections. As for the ability to change, one preseason injury to a key offensive player can cause a ripple effect to the entire team’s projections while an injury to a key defensive player can do the same to each of their opponents. While it sounds like a lot of work – and it is – it is necessary because those “ripple effects” are felt on the field as well. (Art imitating reality…what a wonderful concept!)

Here’s a quick explanation of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

For an example as to the amount of possibilities and factors I consider, take a look below at New England’s projections. Danny Amendola does not have a single “red” on his schedule because most defenses that have clear No. 1 CBs usually have them play certain sides of the field and do not use them as “shadows”. And for the teams that use “shadows”, almost none of them use that player to guard a slot receiver, which is where Amendola will spend a great deal of his time. And really, that is just the tip of the iceberg when I hammer out these projections. As you can tell, a lot of thought goes into this.

Here are some final notes to help you understand what you see below in the tables:

Notes:

1. The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season.
   
   
2. These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. Changes may come in the form of a different-colored matchup and/or a player’s “game log”. In some cases, a strong preseason may warrant the inclusion of one name in a team projection and the removal of another.
   
   
3. For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game. Additionally, players with fewer than 10 projected catches or 100 projected yards have been removed, which will explain the discrepancy in some of the quarterback’s final numbers.
   
   
4. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2013.
   

Key to the table below:

PPR Aver - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Aver - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC East

Matchup analysis: While there is no extended stretch of weak defenses, Buffalo will start off the season with two home games, including one against a New England team that could take a while to find itself and a Panthers’ defense that will likely feature two rookies among their top three defensive tackles and a defensive backfield that is a huge question mark beyond top CB Josh Norman. The Bills will play four of six on the road after hosting Carolina in Week 2, making that stretch a critical one for an offense that wants to go up-tempo and run the ball. During that six-week period, it will be difficult for anyone outside of Spiller and Johnson to maintain any level of consistency. Spiller’s all-purpose game will make him a weekly 100 total-yard, one-score threat regardless of the opponent while Marrone’s willingness to use Johnson in the slot on a more regular basis – to avoid most teams’ top corners and double teams – should allow him to take his fantasy game to another level for as long as Kolb is the starter. By using his team’s two most dynamic weapons in the manner in which it appears he will use them, Marrone is setting up the rest of his team for success despite a difficult schedule. The true wild-card will be if Graham or Rogers can step up and be a legitimate threat in addition to Woods, something only time will tell us.

Matchup analysis: Assuming new Browns DC Ray Horton will use CB Joe Haden as a “shadow”, Wallace could have a difficult Week 1, but he has a great shot of going into the bye with at least three high-quality starts. His post-bye slate is a different story as he’ll likely see plenty of the Bills’ Stephon Gilmore (twice), a potentially healthy Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie – just to name a few. The way their matchups line up this season, it is possible most of Keller’s good games will come during Wallace’s “off” games. The pre-bye schedule is loaded with solid cover safeties, but the post-bye part is not, meaning it will be important for the offensive braintrust to be creative with their formations early on in order to get Keller matched up with a linebacker as often as possible. Hartline will obviously not see another 74-catch season anytime soon, but there aren’t many opponents on the schedule with the personnel to match up comfortably with him now that he is the No. 2 receiver. In other words, Hartline – and the entire passing game for that matter – should be much more consistent in 2013. Somewhat like Spiller, Miller’s versatility should keep his value afloat despite a challenging list of tough run defenses from the AFC North, Tampa Bay and the improved units in Miami’s own division (Jets and Bills). Unlike last season, Tannehill has enough firepower to compete against any defense, so it will be critical that he can make the transition from being a signal-caller reliant on Hartline in 2012 to a spread-the-wealth quarterback in 2013. He’s more than capable of doing just that.

Matchup analysis: Because Amendola will be doing most of his damage from the slot, his fantasy owners don’t have a lot to worry about for most of the season until the second half of the season when he could square off against top-10 slot CBs – per Pro Football Focus – Chris Harris (Denver) and Brice McCain (Houston) as well as renowned Ravens slot CB Lardarius Webb. The road will not be nearly as smooth for whichever receiver wins Brandon Lloyd’s old job – be it Edelman, Dobson, Jones or even Michael Jenkins. It is another reason why Vereen should be on fantasy owners’ radar as a high-upside RB3 in PPR leagues since he will more than likely assume all of Woodhead’s 116 offensive touches from a season ago and then some, regardless of whether or not Gronkowski misses significant regular-season action. New England has actually possessed one of the better run-blocking offensive lines in recent years and is young enough up front to keep it going for a while longer, so whatever the Patriots’ running backs lost in terms of the space created by the passing game, they should make up for in 2013 with volume. New England faces some potentially difficult matchups against the run in Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Houston and Baltimore – to name a few – but should rank among the top rushing teams in the league again in 2013.

Matchup analysis: Due to the personnel shortcomings of ex-GM Mike Tannenbaum, the Jets have a number of offensive position “battles” and very little in terms of clarity. About the only thing that seems certain is that Ivory will carry the load for as long as he can; although between high-scoring offenses that could make the Jets abandon the running game early and tough rushing defenses, Ivory will have his work cut out for him throughout most of his schedule. The ex-Saint could be a fantasy playoff stud assuming the Raiders and Panthers don’t make an incredible leap in their ability to stop the run, however. Sanchez will probably begin the season as the starter despite playing about as poorly as he could have last season, but is almost certain to lose his job at some point to Smith. The rookie should be an upgrade, but expecting him to provide some kind of spark with the Jets’ mediocre talent at receiver and their difficult schedule is asking a lot. (In the interest of full disclosure, my expectation is that Holmes will begin the regular season on the Physically Unable to Perform list, which is why his highlights match Hill’s over that time.) It is rare to write off an entire half of one team’s offense before the season starts, but there is no guarantee Holmes will return to the field healthy or that Hill will take a huge stride forward, leaving Kerley as the receiver most likely to carry the most fantasy value.

NFC East