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Doug Orth | Archive | Email | Twitter
Staff Writer


Projections - AFC & NFC South
Preseason Matchup Analysis
7/31/12

East | North | South | West

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

With the first preseason game kicking off this weekend, it is hard not to get a bit excited about the surprises this season has in store for us. Preseason injuries often give a talented second-string player the opportunity he has been waiting for while training camp competitions at a certain position can help propel a player into fantasy stardom as the final piece to an offense that just needed a quarterback or receiver to step up on what was otherwise a talented starting lineup.

Predicting injuries – not to mention when they will occur – can be a slippery slope (but one I choose to navigate for you, my readers) while camp battles often aren’t decided until weeks or even days before the start of the season. (We all remember how long the competition between Cam Newton and Jimmy Clausen raged last season and how that turned out, right?) But one factor I have long believed owners could exercise some control over was putting their non-elite players in the best position possible to produce for their fantasy team. For the reasons I’ve already mentioned, projecting future performance will always be more art than science, but that shouldn’t stop us from maximizing the science part of the equation while allowing ourselves to enjoy the unpredictability the NFL offers when the “artistry” takes over on the field.

For those of us in high-stakes leagues, we know consistent success in this hobby is difficult. By extension, this fact means the preparation necessary to claim the grand prize or championship each season consists of more than casually eyeballing a player’s season totals and assigning him a number. The method I choose to use – painstakingly predicting each individual matchup during the fantasy season – takes into account the requisite factors such as a player’s talent, supporting cast, scheme, injury history and age in much the same way every other fantasy owner and/or analyst does. I believe the key difference with my projection system offers is that I actually account for the likelihood that a safety like Oakland’s Tyvon Branch will be matched up primarily with Rob Gronkowski (it’s a matchup Branch won rather handily last season) or how often the Jets’ Darrelle Revis matches up against Wes Welker (it doesn’t happen as often as you’d think).

In short, I am not using a team’s schedule as my only means to project (and ultimately rank) a player. Forecasting the season using Preseason Matchup Analysis takes me almost three weeks to complete and needs to be updated regularly as new information becomes available throughout the preseason. It is part of a much bigger picture that starts in early June that doesn’t really end until I submit my final Big Board in early September. Since the goal of this hobby is winning the fantasy title, my emphasis is on securing as many good matchups during the regular season (and particularly the fantasy playoffs) as possible. While I will not suggest there is a huge difference between the Broncos and Chargers’ defenses this season, it is the likely matchups within the game that often determine how the fantasy-point pie is distributed. I do know that I’d prefer that my running back is facing the Panthers and not the Ravens or Steelers during the most important time of the season. For receivers and quarterbacks, I’ll take my chances against the Lions’ secondary and do my best to avoid the Jets. When you get right down to it, my method is all about increasing your likelihood of success during the fantasy postseason – a time when there is usually very little separating each of the remaining playoff teams.

Before digesting my latest round of projections, feel free to review my thoughts and forecasts for the AFC and NFC East as well as the AFC and NFC North. I feel it is important to note that I do not use this forecasting method to justify taking a very good player over an elite player. Since the most elite player in just about every sport is what we like to call “matchup-proof”, there is often no reason to move them down a draft board in the first place. The trick is understanding there are few true matchup-proof players, so winning a league can often come down to which fantasy team’s non-elite players perform better and that is truly where I believe using Preseason Matchup Analysis helps the most.

Much like any projection “system”, each year gives me the opportunity to tweak and hopefully improve the product. In my never-ending quest to make my PSAs and Big Boards the best draft preparation guides I can, I have made a few tweaks that I want to share with you. By now, you should be familiar with my color-coded family. Here’s a quick explanation of each:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

Grey– Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

One notable change I made from last year regarding the labeling of red, yellow or green matchups is acknowledging that while elite players can sometimes have unfavorable matchups, their all-around game simply makes them impossible to bench. (To take an obvious example, sitting Michael Turner or Shonn Greene in a road matchup vs. a fully healthy Seahawks defense is an understandable move because Turner and Greene are highly dependent on the running game in order to be viable in fantasy and Seattle’s run defense is pretty solid when healthy, particularly at home. On the other hand, LeSean McCoy cannot be benched against any defense simply because he is so likely to get his 100 total yards almost regardless of the competition since he is so versatile.) As a result, the elite players will have mostly yellow boxes where the non-elite players would typically have red. As far as the passing game is concerned, more defenses are talking about using “shadow” CBs than in recent years. (And just to be clear, the term “shadow” doesn’t mean that he is locked onto a team’s top option 100% of the time.) There are the ”shadow” CBs most of us have become familiar with – names such as Darrelle Revis, Johnathan Joseph and Joe Haden – who will warrant a red box by many of the top receivers they face. Many other cornerbacks – players like Nnamdi Asomugha and Asante Samuel come immediately to mind – typically remain on one side of the field, making it difficult to give an opposing a true red since they may escape either player by spending most of their time in the slot. In the case of Samuel, however, he will have an equally effective corner opposite him in Brent Grimes, making the slot (against the disappointing Dunta Robinson) the only place of refuge for opposing receivers.

I’ve updated the notes since last week, so please read over them closely to better understand what you see below in the tables:

Notes:

  1. The grey highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game.

  2. These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. Changes may come in the form of a different-colored matchup and/or a player’s “game log”. In some cases, a strong preseason may warrant the inclusion of one name in a team projection and the removal of another. I also feel obligated to mention that players with minimal projections (such as less than 100 yards rushing or receiving) will be excluded from this four-week series but have been accounted for in my overall projections.

  3. For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game.

  4. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2012.

Key to the table below:

PPR Aver - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Aver - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR
.

AFC SOUTH

 Houston Texans
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
MIA JAX DEN TEN NYJ GB BAL bye BUF CHI JAX DET TEN NE IND MIN
QB Matt Schaub 31 18.3 18.3 275 275 3800 240 230 270 245 225 310 240 275 215 215 335 240 340 180 240
TD 24 2 1 2 3 0 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 3 1 2
INT 12 0 1 1 0 0 2 1 1 2 0 0 2 1 1 0
Ru Yards 30 0 5 5 0 0 5 0 5 0 0 5 0 0 0 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Arian Foster 26 23.4 19 351.5 285.5 1395 105 80 115 105 90 105 85 90 75 100 80 75 80 125 85
Ru TD 13 1 0 1 2 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 2 1
Re Yards 560 20 25 45 60 20 50 25 30 65 30 55 25 70 10 30
Re TD 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 66 3 5 6 4 3 7 4 4 7 3 5 4 6 2 3
RB Ben Tate 24 7.5 6.9 112.5 103.5 675 40 30 70 70 25 40 25 30 40 55 35 40 45 55 75
Ru TD 5 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1
Re Yards 60 5 0 10 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 10 0 25 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 3 0 0
RB James Casey 27 2.6 1.8 38.5 27.5 20 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 5 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 135 0 0 65 0 0 25 0 0 5 0 0 0 40 0 0
Re TD 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 11 0 0 5 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0
WR Andre Johnson 31 18.1 12.2 235.5 158.5 1105 85 100 55 105 40 115 75 105 INJ INJ 125 80 100 65 55
Re TD 8 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 INJ INJ 2 0 1 1 0
Rec 77 5 8 4 7 3 9 6 6 INJ INJ 10 5 7 4 3
WR Kevin Walter 31 6.4 3.8 95.5 56.5 445 40 25 35 25 20 40 30 40 30 35 40 20 10 30 25
Re TD 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 39 3 2 3 2 2 4 3 3 2 3 4 2 1 3 2
WR Lestar Jean 24 7.5 5.1 112 77 530 30 40 20 0 45 25 35 20 35 70 40 45 50 25 50
Re TD 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1
Rec 35 2 3 1 0 3 2 3 2 3 4 2 2 3 2 3
TE Owen Daniels 29 9.5 5.7 142 86 620 40 40 35 50 65 45 25 40 50 35 40 30 45 30 50
Re TD 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 56 4 4 3 4 6 3 2 4 5 3 4 3 4 3 4
TE Garrett Graham 26 2.7 1.8 41 27 150 10 0 0 5 15 0 30 15 15 10 25 10 0 0 15
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 14 1 0 0 1 2 0 3 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 1

General overview: Perhaps no team currently embodies the old-school mentality of running the ball and playing good defense like the Texans. Houston running backs combined for an astounding 510 carries (and 599 touches) last season totaling 3,367 total yards and 19 touchdowns. (The last team to exceed both carry and touch figures was the 2008 Baltimore Ravens, who managed 522 carries and 605 total touches. However, they were not nearly as productive in the yardage department with 2,688 yards.) In today’s NFL where the passing game rules, the Texans were just one of three teams to run the ball more than it passed in 2011. Despite the loss of the starting right side of their offensive line, the Texans have very little reason to change their run-heavy approach since they believe they have players in-house capable of helping the team pick right back up where it left off in 2011. It could be argued that two of their three best offensive weapons – Arian Foster and Ben Tate – are running backs. The emphasis on the rushing attack was already well in motion before Andre Johnson’s injury woes last season; however, it probably helps the franchise to know it can win games during the regular season without the best player in franchise history, much less claim a division title and make a Super Bowl run with him less than 100%. They also made this same push without QB Matt Schaub, who pretty much took what fantasy value this passing game had away when he was lost for the season in Week 10 with a Lisfranc injury. Schaub averaged 248 yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game through 10 games; rookie T.J. Yates managed 175 yards and 0.5 scores over his five starts.

Matchup analysis: Considering the talent level of the players in question and their fit within the offensive scheme, the matchups for Foster and Tate are about as appealing as they come. Only Jacksonville (Weeks 2 and 11) and Baltimore (Week 7) strike any real fear in me if I own one of the Texans’ running backs. If Foster can get help your team to a winning record through 11 weeks, he should be an absolute beast during the fantasy playoffs, assuming the Texans don’t have the luxury of resting him due to a huge lead in the division standings. Tate, as was the case on occasion last season, will be useful as a flex in games against the weaker run defenses and/or in potential blowouts. As luck would have it, Weeks 15 and 16 could easily end up being the latter with home games vs. the Colts and Vikings. On a run-heavy offensive team like the Texans, the passing game can be hit or miss. The good news for key players like Schaub and Johnson is that a few of the teams on Houston’s schedule this year may be able to get Houston in a bit of a shootout, which Schaub has thrived in over the years as a Texan. Such games include the Broncos, Titans and Packers before the bye and the Bills, Bears, Lions, Titans and Patriots after it. While many of the matchups are yellow for Schaub due to a lack of notable weapons at receiver, Johnson has the edge in just about every matchup he will see this season outside of a likely showdown against Champ Bailey in Week 3 and a date with shadow corner Darrelle Revis in Week 5. Although Owen Daniels doesn’t exactly deserve to be lumped in with the Texans’ “other” receivers, there were points during last season in which Daniels was nearly as much of an afterthought as Walter or Jacoby Jones (now with the Ravens). Despite the fact that his play hasn’t really dropped off over the past few years, Daniels is now a high-end TE2 option in this run-based attack.

 Indianapolis Colts
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CHI MIN JAX bye GB NYJ CLE TEN MIA JAX NE BUF DET TEN HOU KC
QB Andrew Luck 22 18.2 18.2 273.7 273.7 3805 245 270 285 290 215 175 295 205 180 300 270 345 325 195 210
TD 21 0 2 2 2 1 0 3 2 0 3 1 2 2 1 0
INT 16 1 0 1 2 0 1 1 1 0 2 1 3 0 2 1
Ru Yards 155 15 5 10 10 5 5 25 15 5 0 10 15 10 15 10
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Donald Brown 25 7.8 6.6 93 79 520 40 55 35 40 25 90 50 INJ INJ INJ 20 65 35 25 40
Ru TD 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 INJ INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 90 15 10 5 10 10 0 10 INJ INJ INJ 5 0 10 10 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 14 2 2 1 2 1 0 1 INJ INJ INJ 1 0 1 2 1
RB Vick Ballard 22 8.3 7.6 125 114 775 20 40 35 40 50 70 40 75 50 65 55 60 80 40 55
Ru TD 5 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 65 0 0 10 5 0 10 5 5 10 0 0 10 0 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 11 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 0 0 2 0 0 2
RB Delone Carter 25 1.6 1.4 24 21 130 15 10 10 0 15 0 10 20 15 20 0 0 15 0 0
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 5 0 0 0 10 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
RB Mewelde Moore 30 5.3 2.9 73.5 40.5 135 10 0 15 10 10 0 5 20 10 15 10 10 INJ 10 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0
Re Yards 210 15 10 25 15 30 5 20 10 0 30 15 10 INJ 10 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0
Rec 33 3 2 3 2 4 1 3 2 0 5 3 2 INJ 2 1
WR Reggie Wayne 33 12.2 7.6 182.5 113.5 835 70 45 80 60 30 25 75 55 60 75 40 100 55 25 40
Re TD 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 69 6 4 5 5 3 2 7 4 5 5 4 8 5 2 4
WR Donnie Avery 28 11.9 8.7 83 61 430 45 65 30 20 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ 75 85 110 INJ INJ
Re TD 3 0 1 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ 0 1 1 INJ INJ
Rec 22 3 4 3 1 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ 3 4 4 INJ INJ
WR Austin Collie 26 11.1 6.7 155.5 93.5 695 40 35 50 65 35 50 70 35 INJ 55 20 65 45 80 50
Re TD 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 INJ 1 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 62 3 3 5 6 2 4 7 3 INJ 5 2 6 3 8 5
WR LaVon Brazill 22 1.9 1.3 29 19 190 0 25 0 15 35 0 20 30 0 25 0 0 0 20 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 0 1 0 1 1 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 1
WR T.Y. Hilton 22 1.9 1.1 28 16 160 0 0 0 10 15 25 0 0 55 0 20 0 10 0 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 2
TE Coby Fleener 23 9.2 5.9 138 89 650 30 45 65 50 35 45 60 25 30 70 55 45 70 10 15
Re TD 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 49 2 4 5 4 3 2 3 1 3 5 4 4 6 1 2
TE Dwayne Allen 22 7.9 5.1 118 76 460 30 35 20 40 25 15 30 45 20 45 40 30 15 40 30
Re TD 5 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 42 3 3 2 3 2 1 3 4 2 4 3 4 2 4 2

General overview: As close as the Texans feel like they are to the Super Bowl, the Colts are just about as far away. Indianapolis is in full-rebuilding mode, but at least the new front office had the good sense to surround Peyton Manning’s successor with as many weapons as possible from the draft after dismissing several of the team’s staples (Manning, Pierre Garcon, Joseph Addai, Jeff Saturday – to name a few). As the old cliché goes, young quarterbacks love their tight ends, so the Colts took Andrew Luck’s highly-regarded Stanford teammate in Coby Fleener one round after drafting the top quarterback prospect in years and added the draft’s best all-around tight end one round later in Clemson’s Dwayne Allen. In later rounds, Indianapolis added slot extraordinaire/return specialist T.Y. Hilton and a player they hope will soon replace Garcon is Ohio speedster LaVon Brazill. However, the most interesting move may have been the one Reggie Wayne made, when he decided to remain a Colt – a move that ensures Luck will have the “luxury” of leaning on a proven veteran as he acclimates himself to the league. What he does not figure to have, though, is a proven running back to carry the load for an offense that new HC Chuck Pagano wants to be a physical, smash-mouth unit. Donald Brown came on down the stretch last season, but rookie Vick Ballard strikes me as the type of player that will emerge as the lead back of this committee before the end of the season.

Matchup analysis: Take a minute to compare Houston’s matchups vs. Indianapolis’ – this is perhaps one of the best examples of the contrast that can occur when grading matchups during the preseason. A veteran quarterback with a strong running game and proven in-his-prime playmaker vs. a rookie quarterback with very little running game and a cast of mostly young receivers playing essentially the same schedule (11 common opponents during the fantasy season). As you can tell, the Colts’ slate looks dreadful while the Texans’ looks more than manageable. Starting with Luck and the passing game, they might get a break in Week 2 against Minnesota, but the rest of the first half schedule appears to be quite treacherous. The Bears and Packers should have more than enough pass rush to make Luck uncomfortable, while Wayne will get to face off against Revis and Joe Haden in consecutive weeks. Things lighten up a bit during the first part of the second half of the schedule, but Weeks 12-16 once again figure to overwhelm this offense. Luck owners cannot expect to count on him late in the season as he will play road games against Houston (Week 15) and Kansas City (Week 16) – two defenses that have cornerbacks to shut down Wayne and defenses that figure to be much too talented for the Colts to solve. The running game has similar problems with only one green matchup on the board. Once again, I have the second half of the schedule lightening up for Indianapolis, but how many of the neutral games will actually be competitive? In other words, can we really expect this Colts team to stay in the game long enough against the high-powered offenses of the Titans (twice), Patriots and Lions (both of which are on the road)? Luck will set the stage this season for a potentially dynamic 2013 and beyond, but it may be too much to ask any player from this offense (outside of Wayne and maybe Austin Collie as potential WR3s) to be a regular fantasy starter.

 Jacksonville Jaguars
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
MIN HOU IND CIN CHI bye OAK GB DET IND HOU TEN BUF NYJ MIA NE
QB Blaine Gabbert 22 15.1 15.1 150.6 150.6 2315 215 185 255 230 210 245 190 160 255 370
TD 10 1 0 1 1 0 2 1 0 2 2
INT 8 0 1 1 0 2 1 2 0 0 1
Ru Yards 80 10 10 5 5 10 10 10 5 5 10
Ru TD 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
QB Chad Henne 27 16.4 16.4 98.1 98.1 1240 65 310 200 190 235 240 INJ INJ INJ
TD 8 0 2 2 1 2 1 INJ INJ INJ
INT 5 1 1 2 0 1 0 INJ INJ INJ
Ru Yards 45 5 10 0 10 5 15 INJ INJ INJ
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 INJ INJ INJ
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 27 17.2 14.6 258.5 219.5 1250 85 65 100 75 65 85 75 100 80 60 110 70 85 115 80
Ru TD 10 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
Re Yards 285 15 35 15 10 15 15 30 40 10 5 25 10 15 20 25
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 39 1 4 2 1 2 3 3 4 2 1 3 2 3 3 5
RB Rashad Jennings 27 7.5 6.2 97 81 515 25 30 45 40 30 65 40 50 90 25 30 INJ INJ 30 15
Ru TD 3 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0
Re Yards 115 5 10 0 15 5 5 20 0 0 10 10 INJ INJ 15 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0
Rec 16 1 1 0 2 1 1 2 0 0 1 2 INJ INJ 2 3
WR Laurent Robinson 27 11.6 7.8 151 101 710 45 25 75 55 40 65 50 90 55 30 INJ INJ 30 70 80
Re TD 5 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 INJ INJ 0 1 1
Rec 50 3 2 6 4 3 5 4 5 3 2 INJ INJ 3 4 6
WR Justin Blackmon 22 10.7 7.2 161 108 780 50 30 55 70 45 45 65 70 30 40 65 60 10 40 105
Re TD 5 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 53 4 2 4 5 3 3 4 4 2 3 5 5 1 3 5
WR Mike Thomas 25 8.9 5.1 133.5 76.5 645 40 40 35 20 55 35 30 60 25 70 55 45 40 45 50
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 57 4 4 3 2 5 4 3 5 2 5 5 4 3 3 5
WR Lee Evans 31 3.7 2.4 55.5 36.5 305 15 0 35 0 10 25 0 15 30 0 40 45 20 30 40
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 19 1 0 2 0 1 2 0 1 1 0 2 2 2 3 2
TE Marcedes Lewis 28 8.5 5.4 128 81 570 35 20 40 45 35 55 40 20 35 15 40 60 45 35 50
Re TD 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Rec 47 3 2 3 4 3 3 5 2 3 1 3 6 3 2 4
TE Zach Miller 27 2.2 1.2 21.5 11.5 115 10 25 0 15 0 0 20 15 15 15 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ
Rec 10 1 2 0 1 0 0 2 1 2 1 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ

General overview: There’s no way around it: last year, there was Maurice Jones-Drew…and then the sound of crickets (or passes hitting the ground, take your pick). This offense was abysmal last year and it really shouldn’t have come as a big surprise when the Jaguars decided to roll with Mike Thomas and Jason Hill as their starting receivers, and that was before Jacksonville surprised many of us by releasing David Garrard and promoting Luke McCown. That, of course, did not end well, prompting then-HC Jack Del Rio to perform the face-saving move of rushing rookie Blaine Gabbert into the lineup. The book on Gabbert was that he may need some time to develop and the book did not disappoint in that regard as he finished with the worst passer rating of any regular starter at quarterback in 2011. (On the plus side, his 65.4 QB rating as a rookie was better than those of Hall of Famers Bob Griese, Troy Aikman and Sammy Baugh in their rookie seasons, so there is hope.) However, the Jags attacked this offseason signing the talented yet injury-prone receiver Laurent Robinson and trading up two spots in the draft to secure Justin Blackmon as new HC Mike Mularkey attempts to install his ball-control, big-play passing scheme in Jacksonville. Thomas moves back to where he should be – in the slot – while Marcedes Lewis stands to benefit from all the attention that his new receivers will attract outside the hashmarks. Believe it or not, there is fantasy upside here with Gabbert because he will have NFL-caliber weapons to throw to in 2012, but the question is whether or not he’ll improve at a pace acceptable enough to hold off Chad Henne. Mularkey’s teams have run the ball pretty well everywhere he has coached or called plays, so MJD owners shouldn’t expect much – if any – drop-off based on the coaching change. If his production does fall off, it will likely be because of backup Rashad Jennings nipping at his heels, much like he did in 2010.

Matchup analysis: All bets are off until MJD reports to camp, but we’ll proceed as if he’ll return in the next week or two. And judging by the relative lack of red on the schedule, it should be one this running game can handle – especially during the middle part of the season. Because the Jags’ defense should be pretty solid and Mularkey loves running the ball, there should be more than enough opportunity for both Jones-Drew and Jennings to be relevant in fantasy (like a poor man’s Foster and Tate in Houston). I certainly wouldn’t expect another rushing title for MJD, but a fourth consecutive 1,300-yard season should be achievable. The outlook is not nearly as bright for the passing game, which will obviously be affected by how much better Gabbert is in his second season. Assuming he makes the improvement I think he can make (but not the one I’m projecting obviously), Gabbert has a chance to be usable during the middle part of the season. I highly doubt owners will want to consider him – even if he is significantly better – before Week 7 or after Week 10, for what it’s worth. Similarly, I feel pretty confident in projecting both Robinson and Blackmon – assuming he doesn’t fall hopelessly behind due to his holdout – to play at low-end WR3 levels because Gabbert’s readiness level does not yet figure to be on par with the receivers’ talent level. As is the case with Gabbert, owners may get some useful games from the pair of newcomers during the middle part of the season. All in all, however, there figures to be a lot more miss than hit with this passing game when it comes to deciding whether Blackmon or Robinson should be in fantasy lineups this season.

 Tennessee Titans
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
NE SD DET HOU MIN PIT BUF IND CHI MIA bye JAX HOU IND NYJ GB
QB Jake Locker 24 19.2 19.2 288.2 288.2 3730 240 275 315 235 330 170 260 240 240 275 240 215 295 160 240
TD 23 1 1 2 0 1 0 3 3 1 3 1 1 2 1 3
INT 15 0 2 0 2 0 1 2 0 1 1 2 1 1 0 2
Ru Yards 190 20 15 5 15 5 25 10 0 20 10 10 10 10 15 20
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
RB Chris Johnson 26 19 16 284.5 240.5 1315 105 85 120 55 100 40 90 135 65 90 70 85 110 75 90
Ru TD 10 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 1 1 0
Re Yards 370 15 20 15 40 10 10 50 15 35 15 15 20 15 30 65
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 44 2 3 2 6 1 2 4 1 6 2 2 3 2 4 4
RB Javon Ringer 25 4 2.8 59.5 42.5 190 10 15 5 20 10 20 5 20 10 20 15 15 10 5 10
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 115 5 0 15 10 10 0 15 5 10 5 5 0 0 10 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 17 1 0 2 2 1 0 3 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 3
WR Kenny Britt 23 10.8 7.3 86.5 58.5 405 INJ INJ 50 40 65 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ 40 60 55 15 80
Re TD 3 INJ INJ 0 0 1 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ 0 0 1 0 1
Rec 28 INJ INJ 3 3 4 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ 3 4 5 1 5
WR Nate Washington 29 13.4 9.3 201 139 970 90 70 115 15 75 30 50 65 50 80 70 40 105 45 70
Re TD 7 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 62 6 5 6 1 5 2 3 4 3 5 6 3 5 3 5
WR Kendall Wright 22 9.6 6.2 125 80 620 55 65 55 70 65 30 25 50 20 75 40 25 45 INJ INJ
Re TD 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 INJ INJ
Rec 45 4 4 3 6 5 2 4 3 2 5 3 1 3 INJ INJ
WR Damian Williams 24 5.5 3.1 82.5 46.5 405 10 35 20 15 40 50 70 25 15 35 20 40 0 20 10
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 36 1 3 2 2 3 4 6 2 2 3 2 3 0 2 1
WR Lavelle Hawkins 26 0.3 0.2 4.5 2.5 25 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
TE Jared Cook 25 10.9 6.9 163 104 740 65 65 40 30 55 40 50 80 25 65 45 30 65 30 55
Re TD 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1
Rec 59 4 5 4 3 4 3 4 6 2 5 3 3 5 3 5
TE Craig Stevens 28 2.3 1.5 35 23 110 0 10 5 15 10 10 0 0 10 0 15 0 10 10 15
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 12 0 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 1

General overview: Questions abound on a team that has a chance to be incredibly explosive. Who’s going to be the quarterback? When will Kenny Britt ever get things figured out and when will he ever be healthy enough to capitalize on his incredible talent? Can Chris Johnson have another pre-2011 season? When will Jared Cook finally be able to carry over a strong finish from a previous season with a Pro Bowl-caliber performance the following year? All of these are legitimate questions and, as a result, make the Titans a nightmare to project. Because this team will be a vastly different animal if Jake Locker wins the job, I took the unprecedented step to project 15 full games with him as the quarterback and did the same for Matt Hasselbeck. (Because I think the organization is anxious to see what the future holds for them right now, I think Locker wins the job and posted the appropriate projections.) Hasselbeck is certainly a more efficient passer than Locker, but doesn’t the first-round pick from 2011 give Tennessee a better shot to move the ball because of his mobility and big arm? And we’ve seen what the full-time presence of a mobile quarterback can do for his running back in recent years, all of which makes Johnson an interesting fantasy player this season. Britt’s injury and off-field woes may clear the way for Nate Washington, rookie Kendall Wright and Cook to star in this offense – something each of the two veterans proved they were capable of doing at times last season. To what degree they do so this year depends on the quarterback and Britt, all of which is to say this team projection is very fluid.

Matchup analysis: Fortunately, the Titans’ schedule is such that it presents four legitimately difficult matchups almost across the board (Pittsburgh, New York Jets and twice against Houston), so the quarterback-matchup board will look the same regardless of the camp competition between Hasselbeck and Locker. The winner should get off to a fast start in what should be track-meet games against New England and Detroit and relatively neutral matchups against San Diego and Minnesota. As a whole, two reds and a yellow through 10 pre-bye weeks means the quarterback should have a great deal of success. After the bye, the Titans may want Locker under center in order to use his running ability because Tennessee has four pretty difficult opponents to close out the fantasy season. Of course, the Titans’ offensive plight would be reduced somewhat if Johnson follows up his strong offseason with a return to CJ2K form; Johnson was just the most recent example of why lengthy holdouts do not typically end well. For the average running back (look at Javon Ringer’s line in the table above), this schedule may be enough reason for matchup-conscious owners like myself to worry. But Johnson’s big-play ability along with his receiving skills makes him a relatively safe play on a weekly basis, even after last season. Yes, he does have five yellow-colored matchups to deal with, but a focused Johnson with all the offensive weapons now surrounding him means he should produce like a RB1 in all but one or two of those games.

NFC SOUTH

 Atlanta Falcons
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
KC DEN SD CAR WAS OAK bye PHI DAL NO ARI TB NO CAR NYG DET
QB Matt Ryan 27 23.5 23.5 352.1 352.1 4340 230 275 335 250 305 255 245 285 375 295 275 280 270 315 350
TD 31 2 1 3 1 2 3 2 2 3 1 3 3 1 1 3
INT 11 1 0 1 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 2
Ru Yards 85 5 15 5 0 5 0 10 5 0 5 5 10 5 10 5
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Michael Turner 30 11.5 10.8 172.5 161.5 995 60 70 45 100 55 80 70 50 60 35 85 105 70 40 70
Ru TD 9 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1
Re Yards 80 0 10 5 5 0 0 10 10 0 0 15 0 10 5 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 11 0 2 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1
RB Jacquizz Rodgers 23 8.1 5.7 121 85 300 25 20 20 10 40 25 15 15 40 15 15 15 15 20 10
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 310 25 35 25 15 50 15 0 15 30 5 10 40 10 10 25
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 36 3 5 3 2 3 2 0 2 4 1 2 3 2 1 3
RB Jason Snelling 28 6.2 4.6 92.5 68.5 355 15 25 25 0 20 10 40 20 35 45 35 10 25 25 25
Ru TD 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 150 5 15 0 10 20 5 15 5 10 0 10 15 5 25 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 24 1 3 0 1 3 1 3 1 2 0 1 2 1 3 2
WR Roddy White 30 17.1 11.5 256.5 172.5 1185 50 40 90 80 130 100 60 55 125 50 65 90 60 70 120
Re TD 9 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 1 1
Rec 84 5 4 8 6 9 6 4 5 10 3 4 5 3 5 7
WR Julio Jones 23 17.1 12.1 239 170 1100 70 60 120 50 INJ 55 45 85 75 115 90 40 125 65 105
Re TD 10 1 0 2 0 INJ 1 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 1
Rec 69 5 4 5 3 INJ 3 3 6 6 5 7 4 7 4 7
WR Harry Douglas 27 8.2 5.3 122.5 79.5 615 30 45 35 35 50 60 55 35 75 25 50 40 10 40 30
Re TD 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 43 3 4 3 2 3 2 3 2 4 2 4 3 1 4 3
TE Tony Gonzalez 36 12.2 7.6 183 114 780 40 60 55 40 35 20 60 55 60 90 30 55 50 80 50
Re TD 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 69 4 5 5 3 3 2 5 4 6 8 3 5 4 7 5

General overview: The plan that GM Thomas Dimitroff set into motion during the NFL Draft in 2011 is starting to round into form. After years of leaning on the ground game, the Falcons are opening things up. Matt Ryan, who did nothing but improve each season in former OC Mike Mularkey’s conservative offensive attack, should have every opportunity to launch an all-out aerial assault under new OC Dirk Koetter. Roddy White and Julio Jones – the apple of Dimitroff’s eye in the aforementioned draft – combine to give Ryan one of the most talented 1-2 punches at receiver in the league. In the rare instance neither receiver is open on a given play, Tony Gonzalez is still around and is almost a lock for at least 60-70 catches. And if that weren’t enough, Jones’ draft classmate Jacquizz Rodgers has the ability to take a draw or screen pass the distance and will be given a chance to do so much more often in 2012. While the emphasis on the passing game might serve as a buzzkill to Michael Turner’s owners, 50-75 fewer rushing attempts per season may actually allow him to be an effective fantasy runner during fantasy playoff time and until his contract expires following the end of the 2013 season. If Atlanta follows through with its plan to cater to Ryan’s strengths as a passer and field general – especially when it comes to the no-huddle - this offense could be incredible.

Matchup analysis: In all my years of analyzing the matchups during the preseason, I’m not sure I’ve ever come across one quite like this – I could not bring myself to label a single matchup red. Certainly, the Falcons have some potentially difficult matchups in the passing game, but which receiver is Denver’s Champ Bailey or Kansas City’s Brandon Flowers going to guard? And when the “other” receiver burns his defender enough times, is Bailey or Flowers going to switch receivers? Unlikely, but I bet the receivers will take turns burning the other cornerback(s) on the opposite side of the formation. More than the absence of red, however, is the preponderance of green, especially at the back end of the schedule. Since I’m assuming defenses will still consider White the top receiver, Ryan and Jones should have a field day carving up the Saints (particularly in the Georgia Dome), Bucs and Lions down the stretch. While White will likely see his share of Aqib Talib, Patrick Robinson, Chris Gamble and Chris Houston over the last seven games of the season, Jones will likely see more of Jabari Greer, Alphonso Smith, Captain Munnerlyn and Eric Wright. While Greer is no slouch, all four defenders are poor matchups for someone of Jones’ stature and playmaking ability. With the offense finally geared towards the talents in the passing game, it is entirely possible Turner will be able to finish the season strong for the first time since 2008, the year he joined the team. Of the matchups I marked yellow for Turner, Rodgers and Snelling, only the Chargers and Cardinals give me some pause. I hesitated giving Rodgers any yellows due to the simple fact that he should be used in a capacity similar to Darren Sproles, but I have my doubts that Atlanta wants to commit 86 catches and 173 offensive touches to Rodgers like the Saints did with Sproles a season ago.

 Carolina Panthers
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
TB NO NYG ATL SEA bye DAL CHI WAS DEN TB PHI KC ATL SD OAK
QB Cam Newton 23 23.4 23.4 351.4 351.4 3935 250 305 285 165 225 320 290 390 235 235 160 215 240 350 270
TD 21 2 2 2 0 1 1 1 3 2 2 0 1 1 1 2
INT 16 0 0 1 2 1 0 3 0 2 1 2 2 1 0 1
Ru Yards 580 30 25 40 35 35 35 25 40 60 45 70 20 30 35 55
Ru TD 7 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0
RB DeAngelo Williams 29 8.2 7.5 123.5 112.5 745 70 60 35 60 30 35 30 45 85 70 30 40 25 75 55
Ru TD 5 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 80 5 0 15 10 0 10 0 10 5 0 15 0 0 10 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 11 1 0 2 1 0 1 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 2 0
RB Jonathan Stewart 25 11.4 9.4 170.5 141.5 765 45 75 50 25 65 45 50 30 45 50 60 75 35 35 80
Ru TD 6 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1
Re Yards 230 15 20 10 5 0 15 10 45 40 10 25 10 10 10 5
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 29 2 2 1 1 0 2 1 4 6 2 2 1 2 2 1
RB Mike Tolbert 26 8.4 5.4 109.5 70.5 160 15 5 15 0 10 25 10 INJ INJ 15 10 10 20 15 10
Ru TD 4 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 INJ INJ 0 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 245 20 15 25 35 10 10 25 INJ INJ 15 25 10 20 15 20
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 39 3 2 4 5 2 2 4 INJ INJ 3 3 2 3 2 4
WR Steve Smith 33 14.7 9.9 220 148 1120 30 105 80 40 75 90 130 130 40 65 40 50 70 115 60
Re TD 6 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1
Rec 72 3 7 6 3 5 5 7 8 3 5 3 4 4 6 3
WR Brandon LaFell 25 8.4 5.4 125.5 81.5 575 50 30 45 15 25 65 30 25 50 35 0 70 15 65 55
Re TD 4 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 44 5 2 4 1 2 5 3 2 4 2 0 4 1 5 4
WR David Gettis 25 5.7 3.4 80 48 420 30 20 35 10 15 45 20 40 25 INJ 20 35 40 45 40
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 32 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 3 2 INJ 2 2 3 4 2
WR Louis Murphy 25 3.8 2.5 57.5 37.5 255 40 25 0 15 35 10 0 20 0 45 15 0 10 0 40
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 20 3 2 0 2 3 1 0 1 0 3 1 0 1 0 3
TE Greg Olsen 27 10.2 6.4 153.5 96.5 725 30 55 40 25 65 60 45 80 50 65 20 40 60 70 20
Re TD 4 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 57 2 4 4 2 5 6 4 6 4 4 1 3 5 5 2
TE Gary Barnidge 26 4.8 3.1 62.5 40.5 285 30 35 35 10 0 15 30 40 25 0 INJ INJ 15 20 30
Re TD 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0
Rec 22 2 3 2 1 0 1 3 3 2 0 INJ INJ 1 2 2

General overview: From a fantasy perspective, they may not be a team that is harder to get a read on entering this season than the Panthers. Cam Newton wasted little time announcing his arrival as a valuable fantasy property, throwing for over 400 yards in each of his first two starts as a pro. From that point on, however, he topped 300 yards just once more time all year as he spearheaded a rushing attack that finished third in the league. Over the final 14 games of 2011, Carolina rushed for 2,263 yards – an average of 161.6 yards per game. So are the Panthers a proficient running team with the ability to pass when they want or a passing team that runs because of their depth at running back and relative lack of playmakers at receiver? That question figures to go unanswered into this season since the offense’s most important addition was – you guessed it – another running back. Mike Tolbert isn’t your average running back either, primarily because he is a goal-line specialist who is an asset as a third-down back trapped in a fullback’s body. The NFL has seen players like this before – Larry Centers comes to mind – but it further muddies a backfield picture that really didn’t need to be any more complicated than it already was. Even if he spends most of his time at fullback as the team suggests he will, there’s a very good chance Tolbert takes over the goal-line role from Newton and steals a good deal of the flex appeal of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. When the Panthers do throw the ball this year, Newton figures to lean on Steve Smith once again after he was on the receiving end for 34% of Newton’s passing yards and 33% of his passing touchdowns. Meanwhile, owners of Greg Olsen who believe they have their sleeper top-five tight end now that Jeremy Shockey is gone need to understand the team likes what Gary Barnidge can do as a downfield option; he could very well inherit Shockey’s 37 catches and four touchdowns.

Matchup analysis: Much like some of the elite running backs we’ve discussed over the last few weeks, Newton can generally be considered matchup-proof at the moment because he is both a skilled passer and unbelievable runner. Newton doesn’t have a particularly difficult schedule even if you eliminated his ability as a runner, but he could struggle in games against the Giants (Week 3) and the Falcons (Weeks 4 and 14) because each team has enough athleticism up front to chase him down and the depth and talent necessary to shut down their receivers. Nevertheless, Newton should be an asset in the fantasy playoffs. Smith’s road to fantasy success is a bit more difficult with multiple matchups against the likes of Aqib Talib and the duo of Asante Samuel and Brent Grimes as well as single games against Champ Bailey, Nnamdi Asomugha and Brandon Flowers. As I state in the introduction, I do understand that not all of the top cornerbacks are “shadow” corners, but most of the players I just mentioned in the last sentence will likely fill that role this season for their defense. While the passing game is relatively simple from a fantasy point of view, the running game is an absolute nightmare. Stewart and Williams finished with relatively similar numbers in carries and rushing yards, with the former distinguishing himself in the passing game. Tolbert now figures to get the bulk of that work now, essentially making all three the same kind of back for fantasy purposes. This should go a long way in explaining why all three have the exact same color codes on their schedules. The crowded backfield is a shame for fantasy purpose since outside of a five-game stretch from Week 3-8, Carolina has a relatively soft schedule against the run until the start of the fantasy playoffs. Barring injury, owners may just need to resign themselves to the idea the Panthers just won’t provide them with an every-week starter at the RB position.

 New Orleans Saints
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
WAS CAR KC GB SD bye TB DEN PHI ATL OAK SF ATL NYG TB DAL
QB Drew Brees 33 27.5 27.5 412.7 412.7 4930 380 350 345 355 365 360 305 280 255 365 330 235 315 355 335
TD 38 3 2 2 4 3 3 1 2 1 4 3 1 2 4 3
INT 12 0 1 1 2 0 2 0 1 0 0 1 2 1 0 1
Ru Yards 55 5 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 5 0 5 0 5
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Mark Ingram 22 8.9 8.3 115.5 107.5 600 35 55 45 35 40 80 45 40 20 80 10 INJ INJ 65 50
Ru TD 7 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 INJ INJ 1 1
Re Yards 55 5 10 0 0 10 0 10 0 0 15 0 INJ INJ 5 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0
Rec 8 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 2 0 INJ INJ 1 0
RB Pierre Thomas 27 11.1 7.9 166 118 495 30 40 50 40 20 25 35 15 25 15 25 45 75 30 25
Ru TD 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 385 25 35 50 30 25 10 25 40 10 15 50 20 15 10 25
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 48 3 4 5 4 3 2 4 4 2 2 6 3 3 1 2
RB Darren Sproles 29 16.5 11.1 248 167 500 40 25 35 15 45 15 25 45 10 75 10 40 25 55 40
Ru TD 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 690 45 35 65 55 40 55 70 55 20 45 50 15 60 45 35
Re TD 5 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Rec 81 5 5 8 7 5 6 5 8 3 5 7 2 6 4 5
WR Marques Colston 29 17.1 11.3 256.5 169.5 1155 85 100 50 75 65 90 35 55 75 120 45 80 70 130 80
Re TD 9 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 0
Rec 87 7 7 4 6 5 7 2 5 6 9 3 5 6 9 6
WR Lance Moore 29 10.4 6.5 146 91 610 35 25 55 70 30 70 55 40 25 35 40 INJ 35 55 40
Re TD 5 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 INJ 0 1 1
Rec 55 3 2 5 7 3 5 4 3 3 2 5 INJ 3 6 4
WR Devery Henderson 30 6.4 4.4 96.5 66.5 485 65 30 20 45 50 20 10 15 5 80 25 25 55 10 30
Re TD 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 30 3 2 1 1 3 2 1 2 1 4 2 2 3 1 2
WR Nick Toon 23 3 1.6 45 24 240 15 25 45 0 0 25 30 0 15 0 20 35 10 20 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 21 1 2 3 0 0 2 3 0 1 0 2 4 1 2 0
TE Jimmy Graham 25 20.1 13.5 302 203 1190 95 90 45 80 125 80 70 75 85 55 85 55 70 80 100
Re TD 14 1 1 0 1 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 1
Rec 99 7 8 3 6 10 6 6 7 8 5 7 6 5 7 8
TE David Thomas 29 2.1 1.2 32 18 120 10 0 15 0 20 10 0 0 20 0 15 5 0 0 25
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 14 1 0 2 0 2 1 0 0 2 0 3 1 0 0 2

General overview: Here’s a number for you: 7,474 - the total number of scrimmage yards the Saints posted last year as they ran a league-high 1,117 plays and gained an NFL-best 6.7 yards per play. For those of you worried about the effect that losing HC Sean Payton for the year due to suspension will have on this offense, consider that OC Pete Carmichael directed an offensive onslaught that averaged 476.1 yards and 37 points over the final 10 games of the regular season (slight increases over the 452.1 yards and 29.5 points the team averaged in the six games before Payton’s sideline knee injury). So rest easy, New Orleans: barring a multi-week injury to Drew Brees or Jimmy Graham, your offense isn’t likely to take the foot off the pedal anytime soon. While it is too much to ask the Saints for a repeat virtuoso performance, there is really no reason why they can’t come pretty close. Brees no longer has a contract to worry about, Graham is just in his fourth year of organized football and probably has not hit his ceiling as a player yet and Darren Sproles seemingly does more with 10-12 offensive touches per game than just about any player I can remember. The only true loss from a personnel perspective was Robert Meachem, but the team has long waited for an opportunity to promote Adrian Arrington and just has not had the opportunity to do so. Rookie Nick Toon has also reportedly been impressive during the spring and summer. So, with a defense that should only see marginal improvement in 2012 in an offensive division, New Orleans may be on the verge of another 7,000+ yard season.

Matchup analysis: On an offense this wide open and aggressive, it’s hard to say there is a single red-worthy matchup for the passing game regardless of the opponent. Graham is nearly impossible to cover at 6-7 and 265 pounds with an incredible catch radius that complements his jaw-dropping athleticism. Although Marques Colston does not have Graham’s freakish athleticism of Graham or his good track record when it comes to durability, Colston presents a similar dilemma for defenses since the Saints love to use him in the slot; not many defenses have slot corners willing or able to guard a 6-4, 225-pound receiver with sticky hands; it is the amount of time that he spends in the slot that helps him avoid any red matchups. Likewise, not many teams have linebackers or safeties with the ability to tackle Sproles. While Brees is certainly capable of having an off day from time to time, it would seem foolish to label any of his matchups as bad ones due to the fact he possesses three “matchup nightmares” with 80-100 catch potential. Lance Moore has made his living in recent years finding holes in zone coverage, so he’s a worthy play anytime the Saints go against a zone-heavy defense while Devery Henderson is a wildly inconsistent fantasy property that should only be targeted when defenses lack good safety play. I reluctantly gave Mark Ingram three reds against the Falcons and Niners, but since his role is as the short-yardage and inside muscle on a team capable of scoring over 30 points a game, it becomes difficult to say he isn’t capable of converting a 1-2 yard scoring plunge against any opponent. Compared to Sproles and Ingram, Pierre Thomas is really the best of both worlds since he has enough size to be a 10-15 carry-per-game player if necessary but is enough of an asset in the passing game (50 catches in 2011) that he is a strong flex option against just about any opponent.

 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pos Player Age PPR Aver NPPR Aver PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CAR NYG DAL WAS bye KC NO MIN OAK SD CAR ATL DEN PHI NO STL
QB Josh Freeman 24 20.5 20.5 307.8 307.8 3720 255 235 245 240 265 310 225 225 360 150 250 200 190 320 250
TD 22 2 1 1 2 1 3 2 1 2 1 0 2 0 2 2
INT 12 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 1
Ru Yards 270 10 25 20 15 10 20 25 5 40 25 15 15 20 15 10
Ru TD 4 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0
RB Doug Martin 23 15.2 12.5 227.5 187.5 1110 80 65 50 70 80 105 65 90 55 115 55 65 70 65 80
Ru TD 7 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 1
Re Yards 285 20 15 40 10 15 20 10 5 25 0 15 35 15 45 15
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 40 3 3 5 2 2 3 2 1 3 0 3 5 2 4 2
RB LeGarrette Blount 25 7.3 7 95.5 90.5 625 55 45 70 25 40 25 70 65 30 INJ INJ 50 65 30 55
Ru TD 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 INJ INJ 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 40 0 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 15 INJ INJ 10 0 5 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 INJ INJ 1 0 1 0
RB Michael Smith 24 3.6 2.2 54.5 32.5 150 20 10 5 10 15 10 0 10 5 20 15 5 10 15 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 175 15 10 0 15 15 20 10 0 30 20 10 0 15 15 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 22 2 1 0 2 2 3 1 0 3 2 2 0 3 1 0
WR Vincent Jackson 29 15.1 10.6 227 159 1110 85 75 70 120 35 90 45 140 85 40 70 35 55 120 45
Re TD 8 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0
Rec 68 4 5 6 8 3 5 2 7 5 2 4 2 3 8 4
WR Mike Williams 25 12.7 8.3 190.5 124.5 885 55 40 70 45 65 75 55 30 100 50 40 70 35 75 80
Re TD 6 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2
Rec 66 5 4 5 3 4 7 4 3 6 4 2 5 3 5 6
WR Preston Parker 25 7.1 4.1 107 62 500 40 35 35 20 55 30 50 10 25 30 40 20 35 20 55
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 45 4 3 2 2 5 3 4 1 2 3 4 2 3 2 5
WR Arrelious Benn 23 4.9 2.8 58.5 33.5 275 10 15 0 20 40 30 25 25 45 0 50 15 INJ INJ INJ
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ
Rec 25 1 2 0 2 4 3 2 2 3 0 4 2 INJ INJ INJ
TE Luke Stocker 24 1.6 1 24.5 14.5 85 10 5 15 10 10 0 10 0 0 0 0 15 10 0 0
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 1 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0
TE Dallas Clark 33 4.5 2.8 67.5 41.5 295 20 35 15 0 30 40 20 15 35 10 25 0 15 15 20
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 26 2 3 1 0 2 3 2 2 3 1 2 0 2 1 2

General overview: The one team in this division that overhauled their coach and coordinators, the Bucs could be considered something of a mystery team this year. On one hand, they are very likely to be a bruising and physical run-heavy team that has the ability to go deep at will with Vincent Jackson now on the roster. On the other hand, the run defense figures to be among the worst in the league again, which may make it difficult for Tampa Bay to implement Buc-ball each and every game. Lucky for rookie Doug Martin, he is equally adept as a runner and receiver, giving him a substantial advantage over LeGarrette Blount. Jackson’s arrival means less attention (probably offensively and defensively) for Mike Williams but gives Josh Freeman a fighting chance to recapture the form that allowed him to finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2010. Don’t be surprised if he makes another push into that area, now that he has a respected assistant-turned-OC in Mike Sullivan (formerly Eli Manning’s QB coach) and weapons like Martin and Jackson. Also, keep in mind that Freeman can run the ball a bit (he has averaged nearly 20 yards rushing in 41 career games and scored four times in the red zone last season. Having dropped roughly 20 pounds in the offseason and with an offensive emphasis on the run now, Freeman figures to bounce back in a big way as a runner (think a very poor man’s Cam Newton) and thrower with a respectable deep threat and all-purpose running back contributing to his cause.

Matchup analysis: One reason I have a reasonable amount of optimism for this Bucs’ offense is the division they play in – the NFC South. Only Atlanta with new DC Mike Nolan and an impressive secondary strikes me as a defense to avoid and Tampa Bay is fortunate to only meet the Falcons once during the fantasy season. The back end of Freeman’s schedule is no cakewalk, but before dismissing him, you should ask yourself: what is the likelihood is that at least three of those final four games will not be high-scoring? Jackson needs Freeman to be on his game in 2012 as the new WR1 has a string of difficult matchups, especially after the bye. Over the final 11 weeks, V-Jax will square off against likely shadow corners Brandon Flowers, Chris Cook, Chris Gamble and Cortland Finnegan. In his other yellow and red games, Jackson will see plenty of the Falcons (Brent Grimes and Asante Samuel) and Eagles’ CB duos (Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) as well as Champ Bailey. Despite his huge contract, Jackson was already a bad bet to post his first 70-catch season and a review of this schedule makes that task even more daunting unless he has taken great strides to develop the short and intermediate parts of his game this offseason. The tough slate for Jackson bodes well for Williams, but how interested is he in maximizing his talent? Much like the case was for Freeman, I’m optimistic Martin has the skills (and offensive line) necessary to perform at a top-end RB2 level this season. In fact, Martin should be in line for an incredible second half of the season if he leaves Blount in his wake during training camp and doesn’t hit the “rookie wall” late in the season.

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Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.