Predicting injuries – not to mention when they will occur – can be a slippery slope (but one I choose to navigate for you, my readers) while camp battles often aren’t decided until weeks or even days before the start of the season. (We all remember how long the competition between Cam Newton and Jimmy Clausen raged last season and how that turned out, right?) But one factor I have long believed owners could exercise some control over was putting their non-elite players in the best position possible to produce for their fantasy team. For the reasons I’ve already mentioned, projecting future performance will always be more art than science, but that shouldn’t stop us from maximizing the science part of the equation while allowing ourselves to enjoy the unpredictability the NFL offers when the “artistry” takes over on the field.

For those of us in high-stakes leagues, we know consistent success in this hobby is difficult. By extension, this fact means the preparation necessary to claim the grand prize or championship each season consists of more than casually eyeballing a player’s season totals and assigning him a number. The method I choose to use – painstakingly predicting each individual matchup during the fantasy season – takes into account the requisite factors such as a player’s talent, supporting cast, scheme, injury history and age in much the same way every other fantasy owner and/or analyst does. I believe the key difference with my projection system offers is that I actually account for the likelihood that a safety like Oakland’s Tyvon Branch will be matched up primarily with Rob Gronkowski (it’s a matchup Branch won rather handily last season) or how often the Jets’ Darrelle Revis matches up against Wes Welker (it doesn’t happen as often as you’d think).

In short, I am not using a team’s schedule as my only means to project (and ultimately rank) a player. Forecasting the season using Preseason Matchup Analysis takes me almost three weeks to complete and needs to be updated regularly as new information becomes available throughout the preseason. It is part of a much bigger picture that starts in early June that doesn’t really end until I submit my final Big Board in early September. Since the goal of this hobby is winning the fantasy title, my emphasis is on securing as many good matchups during the regular season (and particularly the fantasy playoffs) as possible. While I will not suggest there is a huge difference between the Broncos and Chargers’ defenses this season, it is the likely matchups within the game that often determine how the fantasy-point pie is distributed. I do know that I’d prefer that my running back is facing the Panthers and not the Ravens or Steelers during the most important time of the season. For receivers and quarterbacks, I’ll take my chances against the Lions’ secondary and do my best to avoid the Jets. When you get right down to it, my method is all about increasing your likelihood of success during the fantasy postseason – a time when there is usually very little separating each of the remaining playoff teams.

Before digesting my latest round of projections, feel free to review my thoughts and forecasts for the AFC and NFC East as well as the AFC and NFC North. I feel it is important to note that I do not use this forecasting method to justify taking a very good player over an elite player. Since the most elite player in just about every sport is what we like to call “matchup-proof”, there is often no reason to move them down a draft board in the first place. The trick is understanding there are few true matchup-proof players, so winning a league can often come down to which fantasy team’s non-elite players perform better and that is truly where I believe using Preseason Matchup Analysis helps the most.

Much like any projection “system”, each year gives me the opportunity to tweak and hopefully improve the product. In my never-ending quest to make my PSAs and Big Boards the best draft preparation guides I can, I have made a few tweaks that I want to share with you. By now, you should be familiar with my color-coded family. Here’s a quick explanation of each:

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

Grey– Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

One notable change I made from last year regarding the labeling of red, yellow or green matchups is acknowledging that while elite players can sometimes have unfavorable matchups, their all-around game simply makes them impossible to bench. (To take an obvious example, sitting Michael Turner or Shonn Greene in a road matchup vs. a fully healthy Seahawks defense is an understandable move because Turner and Greene are highly dependent on the running game in order to be viable in fantasy and Seattle’s run defense is pretty solid when healthy, particularly at home. On the other hand, LeSean McCoy cannot be benched against any defense simply because he is so likely to get his 100 total yards almost regardless of the competition since he is so versatile.) As a result, the elite players will have mostly yellow boxes where the non-elite players would typically have red. As far as the passing game is concerned, more defenses are talking about using “shadow” CBs than in recent years. (And just to be clear, the term “shadow” doesn’t mean that he is locked onto a team’s top option 100% of the time.) There are the ”shadow” CBs most of us have become familiar with – names such as Darrelle Revis, Johnathan Joseph and Joe Haden – who will warrant a red box by many of the top receivers they face. Many other cornerbacks – players like Nnamdi Asomugha and Asante Samuel come immediately to mind – typically remain on one side of the field, making it difficult to give an opposing a true red since they may escape either player by spending most of their time in the slot. In the case of Samuel, however, he will have an equally effective corner opposite him in Brent Grimes, making the slot (against the disappointing Dunta Robinson) the only place of refuge for opposing receivers.

I’ve updated the notes since last week, so please read over them closely to better understand what you see below in the tables:

Notes:

1. The grey highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game.
   
   
2. These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. Changes may come in the form of a different-colored matchup and/or a player’s “game log”. In some cases, a strong preseason may warrant the inclusion of one name in a team projection and the removal of another. I also feel obligated to mention that players with minimal projections (such as less than 100 yards rushing or receiving) will be excluded from this four-week series but have been accounted for in my overall projections.
   
   
3. For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game.
   
   
4. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2012.
   
   

Key to the table below:

PPR Aver - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Aver - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC SOUTH

Matchup analysis: Take a minute to compare Houston’s matchups vs. Indianapolis’ – this is perhaps one of the best examples of the contrast that can occur when grading matchups during the preseason. A veteran quarterback with a strong running game and proven in-his-prime playmaker vs. a rookie quarterback with very little running game and a cast of mostly young receivers playing essentially the same schedule (11 common opponents during the fantasy season). As you can tell, the Colts’ slate looks dreadful while the Texans’ looks more than manageable. Starting with Luck and the passing game, they might get a break in Week 2 against Minnesota, but the rest of the first half schedule appears to be quite treacherous. The Bears and Packers should have more than enough pass rush to make Luck uncomfortable, while Wayne will get to face off against Revis and Joe Haden in consecutive weeks. Things lighten up a bit during the first part of the second half of the schedule, but Weeks 12-16 once again figure to overwhelm this offense. Luck owners cannot expect to count on him late in the season as he will play road games against Houston (Week 15) and Kansas City (Week 16) – two defenses that have cornerbacks to shut down Wayne and defenses that figure to be much too talented for the Colts to solve. The running game has similar problems with only one green matchup on the board. Once again, I have the second half of the schedule lightening up for Indianapolis, but how many of the neutral games will actually be competitive? In other words, can we really expect this Colts team to stay in the game long enough against the high-powered offenses of the Titans (twice), Patriots and Lions (both of which are on the road)? Luck will set the stage this season for a potentially dynamic 2013 and beyond, but it may be too much to ask any player from this offense (outside of Wayne and maybe Austin Collie as potential WR3s) to be a regular fantasy starter.

Matchup analysis: All bets are off until MJD reports to camp, but we’ll proceed as if he’ll return in the next week or two. And judging by the relative lack of red on the schedule, it should be one this running game can handle – especially during the middle part of the season. Because the Jags’ defense should be pretty solid and Mularkey loves running the ball, there should be more than enough opportunity for both Jones-Drew and Jennings to be relevant in fantasy (like a poor man’s Foster and Tate in Houston). I certainly wouldn’t expect another rushing title for MJD, but a fourth consecutive 1,300-yard season should be achievable. The outlook is not nearly as bright for the passing game, which will obviously be affected by how much better Gabbert is in his second season. Assuming he makes the improvement I think he can make (but not the one I’m projecting obviously), Gabbert has a chance to be usable during the middle part of the season. I highly doubt owners will want to consider him – even if he is significantly better – before Week 7 or after Week 10, for what it’s worth. Similarly, I feel pretty confident in projecting both Robinson and Blackmon – assuming he doesn’t fall hopelessly behind due to his holdout – to play at low-end WR3 levels because Gabbert’s readiness level does not yet figure to be on par with the receivers’ talent level. As is the case with Gabbert, owners may get some useful games from the pair of newcomers during the middle part of the season. All in all, however, there figures to be a lot more miss than hit with this passing game when it comes to deciding whether Blackmon or Robinson should be in fantasy lineups this season.

Matchup analysis: Fortunately, the Titans’ schedule is such that it presents four legitimately difficult matchups almost across the board (Pittsburgh, New York Jets and twice against Houston), so the quarterback-matchup board will look the same regardless of the camp competition between Hasselbeck and Locker. The winner should get off to a fast start in what should be track-meet games against New England and Detroit and relatively neutral matchups against San Diego and Minnesota. As a whole, two reds and a yellow through 10 pre-bye weeks means the quarterback should have a great deal of success. After the bye, the Titans may want Locker under center in order to use his running ability because Tennessee has four pretty difficult opponents to close out the fantasy season. Of course, the Titans’ offensive plight would be reduced somewhat if Johnson follows up his strong offseason with a return to CJ2K form; Johnson was just the most recent example of why lengthy holdouts do not typically end well. For the average running back (look at Javon Ringer’s line in the table above), this schedule may be enough reason for matchup-conscious owners like myself to worry. But Johnson’s big-play ability along with his receiving skills makes him a relatively safe play on a weekly basis, even after last season. Yes, he does have five yellow-colored matchups to deal with, but a focused Johnson with all the offensive weapons now surrounding him means he should produce like a RB1 in all but one or two of those games.

NFC SOUTH

Matchup analysis: In all my years of analyzing the matchups during the preseason, I’m not sure I’ve ever come across one quite like this – I could not bring myself to label a single matchup red. Certainly, the Falcons have some potentially difficult matchups in the passing game, but which receiver is Denver’s Champ Bailey or Kansas City’s Brandon Flowers going to guard? And when the “other” receiver burns his defender enough times, is Bailey or Flowers going to switch receivers? Unlikely, but I bet the receivers will take turns burning the other cornerback(s) on the opposite side of the formation. More than the absence of red, however, is the preponderance of green, especially at the back end of the schedule. Since I’m assuming defenses will still consider White the top receiver, Ryan and Jones should have a field day carving up the Saints (particularly in the Georgia Dome), Bucs and Lions down the stretch. While White will likely see his share of Aqib Talib, Patrick Robinson, Chris Gamble and Chris Houston over the last seven games of the season, Jones will likely see more of Jabari Greer, Alphonso Smith, Captain Munnerlyn and Eric Wright. While Greer is no slouch, all four defenders are poor matchups for someone of Jones’ stature and playmaking ability. With the offense finally geared towards the talents in the passing game, it is entirely possible Turner will be able to finish the season strong for the first time since 2008, the year he joined the team. Of the matchups I marked yellow for Turner, Rodgers and Snelling, only the Chargers and Cardinals give me some pause. I hesitated giving Rodgers any yellows due to the simple fact that he should be used in a capacity similar to Darren Sproles, but I have my doubts that Atlanta wants to commit 86 catches and 173 offensive touches to Rodgers like the Saints did with Sproles a season ago.