I consider myself a man of the people, so when the inquiring minds
of the fantasy community ask for something, I try my best to deliver.
One of the most well-received preseason pieces I do each summer
is the Red Zone Report.
For those unfamiliar with it, I do a team-by-team breakdown of
each team’s activity from the previous season and try to
provide some insight into how it affects the upcoming season.
Last week, I was asked to do a midseason version of it and it
makes perfect sense to do so. While I can’t use the same
32-team format that I do for the preseason piece due to the regular-season
time crunch, doing a version that gives owners an idea where Running Backs,
running backs, wide receivers and tight ends stands in relation
to his peers at the position isn’t nearly as time consuming
(and is probably more digestible anyway).
Here is the key to all the abbreviations you will see in the
tables below:
Att – Pass Attempts
Cmp – Completions
PaTD – Pass TD
PaTD % - The rate at which a red-zone
pass attempt resulted in a red-zone touchdown pass
RuAtt – Rush Attempt
RuAtt % - The percentage of red-zone
carries a player had for his team (For example, Andre Ellington
secured 14 of Arizona’s 52 red-zone carries, meaning he
had 14.3% of his team’s red-zone rushing attempts.)
RuTD – Rush TD
RuTD % - The rate at which a red-zone
rush attempt resulted in a red-zone touchdown run
Tar – Red-zone targets
Tar % - The percentage of red-zone
targets a player had for his team (For example, Larry Fitzgerald
secured 24 of Arizona’s 68 red-zone passing attempts, meaning
he had 34.3% of his team’s red-zone targets.)
Rec – Red-zone receptions
ReTD – Receiving TD
ReTD% - The rate at which a red-zone
reception resulted in a red-zone touchdown reception
| **** Sorted by by RuAtt, then by RuTD |
QBs
| RBs | WRs | TEs |
Before we dig into the running back position, I feel it necessary
to point out that 29.4 percent of Lynch’s red-zone rushing attempts
and 44.4 percent of his red-zone rushing touchdowns this season came
last week against the Giants. OK, now we can continue…
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the presence of Miller
in second place on this list. Even more surprising is the number
next to his attempts: 43.3. Yes, that is percentage of times the
ball ends up in his hands on a rushing play in the red zone. (In
other words, he isn’t even getting half of his team’s
red-zone carries.) Miami is the only team with three running backs
that have at least 10 rushing attempts inside the 20 (and that includes
Moreno, who played only parts of three games and saw his last action
in Week 6). For what it is worth, Miller collected 13 red-zone attempts
in Weeks 7-9 before his bum shoulder limited him most of last week.
Owners looking for an explanation on McCoy’s fall from fantasy
grace need to focus their attention somewhere else besides the red
zone. Last year, “Shady” scored six times inside the
20 on 38 carries and five catches. Through nine games this season,
he has 25 rushing attempts and three receptions inside the 20, putting
him on a slightly better pace in terms of attempts (2.7-2.4 per
game) and catches (.33-.31) than last year.
In case some people thought Lynch’s 10 carries inside the red zone
was a bit of an uncommon occurrence, it’s not (at least not in the
sense that backs don’t see that kind of workload on a semi-regular
basis around the league.) Ingram had 11 carries and two scores in
Week 9 while Jonas
Gray (Week 8) and Joique
Bell (Week 7) led the way with eight in the two weeks prior.
Speaking of Ingram, there is no doubt his rise to fantasy prominence
has been due to the coincidental absence of Pierre
Thomas and Khiry
Robinson. With that said, he is averaging four carries inside
the 20 in the six games he has played thus far – a pace that has
been kept by only one regular running back over a full year in the
last four seasons (2011-14): Arian
Foster averaged 4.6 such carries during his last16-game season
in 2012.
West appears to be the leader in the Browns’ running back
clubhouse at the moment, but be forewarned that Cleveland used formation
(you are reading that right) to determine which back saw action
on a given play against Cincinnati in Week 10. (West played in two-tight,
two-wide formations, Tate was the man in three-wide packages, etc.)
Things haven’t changed with the Browns; one quick look at
the volume of touches that Browns’ backs are getting inside
the 20 (Tate – 23 carries; West – 21 carries and three
catches; Crowell – seven carries) makes any potential leader
of the committee a desirable back to own in fantasy. It should also
send a pretty clear message that if one of these backs puts together
a couple of good games in a row, Cleveland will be tempted to stick
with him. With matchups against Houston (11th-most points allowed
to fantasy backs) and Atlanta (most RB points allowed), the stage
is set for West to claim the lion’s share of the carries.
HC Mike Pettine has said he wants one of these backs to stand out
in practice, but he’ll be hard-pressed to go against his third-round
rookie if he can string together three solid games together before
the Browns face Buffalo in Week 13.
Some other notables before moving on:
- Knile Davis has more red-zone touches (19) than Jamaal Charles
(17);
- Giovani Bernard – much like Ingram – remains firmly
in the top 10 on this list despite missing multiple games;
- Similarly, Rashad Jennings (18), who hasn’t played since
Week 5, has one less touch in the red zone than Foster (19), who
has only missed one game and been limited or sidelined in parts
of two others.
- Fred
Jackson (one), Bobby
Rainey (one) and Le’Veon
Bell (zero) are the only backs in the league with at least
15 red-zone carries that have fewer than two rushing touchdowns.
QBs
| RBs | WRs | TEs
Suggestions, comments, about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me or follow me on Twitter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today
since 2006 and has been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football
Preview magazine since 2010. He has hosted USA Today’s hour-long,
pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday over the
past two seasons and appears as a guest analyst before and during
the season on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” as well
as 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). Doug is also a
member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. |
