About the only guarantee at this time of year is that someone will
emerge from relative anonymity to become his fantasy football’s
team second-half stud. Last year alone, owners that were brave enough
to take a chance on Geno Smith, Edwin Baker, Cordarrelle Patterson
or Marcedes Lewis were handsomely rewarded.
In past years, the list of fantasy playoff saviors doesn’t exactly
read like a Who’s Who of the NFL or look like a list of players
that should expect a call from Canton. Do you remember Patrick
Jeffers in 1999 or the famed Billy Volek to Drew Bennett connection
of 2004? How about Jerome Harrison in 2009?
The examples of clutch play – at least for fantasy purposes
– is certainly not limited to the names above, but the aforementioned
names should at the very least provide a bit of hope to those
owners who get the sense they are one or two players away from
making a championship run and no longer have the ability to make
a trade to acquire those assets.
As I often say, I believe one of the keys to winning consistently
in fantasy football is staying a week or two ahead of your competition.
This approach often requires working in a bit of a gray area since
a fair amount of recommended players have yet to establish playing
time and/or solid body of quality work. As such, my goal for this
week is to provide a list of 16 players/teams that will be on
most leagues’ waiver wire – they are in the majority
of my 12-team leagues with 18-man rosters – that could have
the goods to be the next Volek, Harrison, Jeffers or Bennett.
I will rank each player by position and then in order of how
I would view their upside as potential stretch-run or fantasy-playoff
saviors:
Quarterbacks
The Bucs QB can push your team into the
playoffs.
Josh
McCown, Tampa Bay – Quarterback is often called “the
most dependent position in football”. A quarterback can do everything
right on his end and still look bad when a receiver runs a hitch
and turns inside when he should have turned outside or when a
receiver stops on a route (I’m looking at you, Kelvin
Benjamin). With that in mind, can needy owners really thumb
their nose at a quarterback that can get a few fantasy points
each game on the ground and has options like Mike
Evans and Vincent
Jackson? I recognize how hard it is for owners to forget the
last time they saw a quarterback perform (for most fans, that
time was the Week 3 blowout loss to Atlanta in which he injured
his thumb, leading to a five-game absence). Since his return to
the field in Week 10, the journeyman signal-caller has thrown
for at least 288 yards and two scores in each of his two games.
As luck would have it, Tampa Bay’s opponent this week is his last
employer (Chicago), which just happens to give up the most points
to opposing fantasy quarterbacks. Weeks 13 (Cincinnati) and 14
(Detroit) are less forgiving matchups, but McCown wraps up the
fantasy season on the road against Carolina and at home versus
Green Bay, both of which are in the top half of the league in
most fantasy points allowed to fantasy quarterbacks.
Brian
Hoyer, Cleveland – Remember what I just said about
quarterback being the most dependent position in football? The
same logic applies here, if not even more so. It is probably fair
to say Hoyer has held onto this job longer than anyone expected,
especially without Josh
Gordon (or a healthy Jordan
Cameron, for that matter) to this point, and probably is a
really bad half (in any of his upcoming games) away from watching
Johnny
Manziel try to prove that he is the future in Cleveland. Hoyer
is also coming off a 20-of-50 effort against a below-average Houston
secondary, but let’s not forget how sneaky good he was for a brief
stint last year when Gordon came off suspension and Hoyer was
healthy. Yes, current OC Kyle Shanahan isn’t going to pass the
ball nearly as often as former OC Norv Turner, but common sense
suggests that Shanahan and Hoyer aren’t going to wait long to
feed Gordon.
Kyle
Orton, Buffalo – A slightly more tolerable option for
less risk-averse owners may be Orton, who has proven capable of
exploiting a solid matchup since his Week 5 promotion. With the
32-year-old, it boils down to whether or not he has a healthy
Sammy
Watkins and/or whether or not his rookie receiver is facing
an elite cover corner that week. The Bills actually have a relatively
tame remaining schedule in terms of fantasy points allowed to
opposing fantasy quarterbacks. This Sunday, Orton draws the Jets,
who coughed up four touchdowns to the man once known as “Neckbeard”
in Week 8. (Keep in mind that western New York is getting pounded
by snow this week, so unfavorable weather will almost certainly
be a factor.) Cleveland (Week 13) actually shows up the most difficult
fantasy matchup Orton has on his remaining schedule, although
it is almost comical how few quality quarterbacks the Browns have
faced since Week 6. (Take a peak here for the proof.) I wouldn’t
exactly be thrilled about trusting Orton going forward, but as
a Cam
Newton owner in two leagues, I feel justified saying that
I don’t trust the Bills’ current quarterback any less. Feel better?
Ryan
Mallett, Houston – While there is not a doubt in my
mind that Mallett is the most talented quarterback on this list,
I think his Week 11 performance (20-of-30, 211 yards and two touchdowns)
is near the ceiling of what owners should expect for the rest
of the season. The Texans’ remaining schedule is loaded with defenses
that Arian
Foster and/or Alfred
Blue should be able to have success against – Week 16 versus
Baltimore may be the one exception – meaning prospective and current
owners need to hope that HC Bill O’Brien opts to go away from
Foster and ride his inexperienced quarterback in the red zone,
which seems unlikely at best. I think Mallett will play the game-manager
role better than Ryan
Fitzpatrick did, however, so perhaps this helps owners in
two-QB leagues feel better about Mallett going forward.
Wild-card pick
Jimmy
Clausen, Chicago – Be honest, you didn’t know he was
still in the league, did you? All kidding aside, Jay
Cutler hasn’t put together a full 16-game season since his
first year as a Bear in 2009. Clausen worked with HC Marc Trestman
when he was preparing for the draft in 2010 and impressed the
current Bears’ coach enough in that time that he sought out the
former second-round pick when he was available this past offseason.
Clausen was sharp in preseason action and the Bears obviously
have a talented supporting cast capable of making almost any quarterback
a low-end fantasy QB1 more weeks than not. Cutler’s owners may
actually find the Notre Dame alum is more valuable as a handcuff
than the current backup quarterback on their roster, so for the
poor souls that might be going with Derek
Carr or Alex
Smith as their backup to Cutler, take some time to consider
Clausen instead.
Running Backs
Latavius
Murray, Oakland – This size/speed freak has been on
the radar of dynasty leaguers for some time now and, to a lesser
extent, deeper redraft leagues. I mentioned him a few weeks back
and will do so again because he is the very essence of the player
I’m trying to highlight this week. The 2013 sixth-round pick from
UCF saw a career-high (and team-high) 27 snaps in the Raiders’
Week 11 loss to San Diego and, even more notable, all of his touches
came with the game still somewhat in doubt. At 0-10, Oakland has
little reason to continue to give significant snaps to Darren
McFadden and Maurice
Jones-Drew and there is now reason to believe Murray’s time
is coming sooner than later. As with about any Raiders’ player
in regards to fantasy, Murray is a stash-only option at this time.
And even if Oakland were to hand him the feature-back job at some
point, it is unlikely he’d more than a flex option with the Chiefs
(twice), Rams, Niners and Bills left on his fantasy schedule.
Still, the running back position isn’t one in fantasy where many
owners can ignore a big-play back capable of 60-plus yards rushing
that can contribute in the passing game.
Dan
Herron, Indianapolis – I recall saying Herron was an
average-at-best talent when he was drafted in the sixth round
by the Bengals in 2012. He’s more explosive now than I recall
him being at Ohio State and it is for that reason alone he may
be worth a stash, especially in light of Ahmad
Bradshaw’s season-ending leg injury. How the Colts decide
to spread around Bradshaw’s touches now is far from certain, but
it does seem logical they will at least try to use Herron in a
somewhat similar fashion – albeit with fewer touches and goal-line
opportunities. Then again, there is always the possibility that
Indianapolis just decides to throw more often, which is why Herron
isn’t exactly a no-brainer addition in fantasy this week.
Juwan
Thompson/Kapri Bibbs, Denver – I’m going to assume
C.J.
Anderson is owned in the majority of competitive leagues by
now. And as far as I’m concerned, Anderson is the Broncos’ back
to own for the rest of the season barring injury. (There’s some
that would have said he should have seen his opportunity long
before now.) With that said, it doesn’t mean owners should stop
tapping into that Denver running back pipeline. The reasons Thompson
and Bibbs (in that order) appear here even though they are clearly
blocked at the moment are: 1) when injuries strike one team at
a position, they seem to strike hard and 2) the Broncos actually
have five backs (obviously including Montee
Ball and Ronnie
Hillman) on their roster and practice squad that are usable
in fantasy if they were handed the feature-back role. The upcoming
schedule is far from easy with Miami, Kansas City (which has yet
to surrender a rushing score) and Buffalo coming up over the next
three weeks. However, I’ll always be happy taking my chances with
a running back in a Peyton
Manning-led offense over all but about a handful of more-established
backs. In the leagues I have Anderson, I’m going to do what I
can to stash Thompson.
Wide Receivers
Kenny
Britt, St. Louis – Opportunity and some good luck (or
bad luck for their teammates) must shine favorably upon certain
players in order for them to deliver at the end of the season.
And let’s face it: there’s not a ton of fantasy upside with the
Rams right now, outside of perhaps Tre
Mason as a flex option. When looking for upside where seemingly
very little exists, owners often rationalize that “someone has
to produce” in that offense and there is really little question
that Britt is the best candidate for that honor in the St. Louis
passing game. Brian
Quick had a nice run before his injury, then Jared Cook caught
fire for a bit before Shaun King replaced Austin
Davis under center. I’d hate to be in a position where I’d
have to count on Britt for a prolonged stretch, although upcoming
matchups against Oakland, Washington and Arizona may just be good
enough to pencil him in as a WR3. Make no mistake about it, though,
Britt was getting open at will against Denver last week and was
an underthrown ball away from scoring two long touchdowns on his
first two catches.
Chris
Hogan, Buffalo – It’s always a good sign when a receiver
earns the nickname “7-11”, right? Chain-moving receivers aren’t
glamorous or particularly high-scoring fantasy players, but they
do offer a fair amount of consistency and that is exactly what
Hogan has done over the Bills’ last five games. The former lacrosse
player from Penn State and Monmouth product has at least five
catches for 57 yards in four of his last five games and probably
isn’t going to drop off much as Watkins likely sees a lot of Joe
Haden and Aqib
Talib in Weeks 13 and 14, respectively. Hogan has attracted
16 combined targets and full-time snaps over the last two weeks
(60-of-72 in Week 10 and 49-of-62 in Week 11), making Mike
Williams a bit of an afterthought in the offense. It wouldn’t
come as a complete shock if he eventually steals Scott
Chandler’s role in the red zone as well, assuming he hasn’t
already.
Charles
Johnson, Minnesota – The Packers’ seventh-round pick
out of Grand Valley State a year ago, Johnson has been a magnet
for receiver-needy NFL teams ever since Green Bay let him go last
summer. He was impressive in Browns’ camp this summer and the
team held him as long as it could on the practice squad until
the Vikings – likely at the urging of old friend Norv Turner,
who got to see Johnson in Cleveland last year – snatched him up
in mid-September. Johnson had limited opportunities to perform
until last week, when he took advantage of injuries of Jarius
Wright and Greg
Jennings to haul in six catches for 87 yards against Chicago.
Perhaps it is just a blip on the radar, but it’s not usually a
good idea for fantasy owners to ignore highly athletic 6-2, 215-pound
receivers that run under 4.4-40s on teams that need a playmaker
to step up.
Wild-card pick
Marquess
Wilson, Chicago – How much did the Bears miss Wilson?
Well, after getting placed on the IR/designated for return and
missing the first 10 weeks of the season, Chicago let him play
58 of 78 snaps in Week 11. The 6-4 wideout is a longshot for redraft
value assuming Brandon
Marshall and Alshon
Jeffery remain healthy, but that hasn’t exactly been a given
this season. With that said, the high snap count suggests either
the Bears really wanted to spread things out against Minnesota
(Josh
Morgan also saw one of his highest snap totals of the season)
or was an indication that Chicago wants to rely heavily on the
added downfield dimension Wilson can bring. The second-year receiver
out of Washington State was highly impressive over the summer,
so it is not a stretch to say the heavy snap count is an indication
of things to come. Perhaps he is nothing more than an occasional
deep threat for the rest of the season, although the upside with
him is huge if something happens to either Marshall or Jeffery.
Tight Ends
Marcedes
Lewis, Jacksonville – Owners probably don’t need to
be reminded about how bleak the tight end landscape is, so desperate
times call for desperate measures. Lewis’ nine-touchdown season
in 2009 might as well have been a lifetime ago, but there is a
small glimmer of hope that he could be a stretch-run star. First
of all, Denard
Robinson has given the Jaguars a ground game (without the
blocking exploits of Lewis, who is considered one of the best
blockers at his position in the NFL). Secondly, the loss of Allen
Robinson frees up a pretty sizeable chunk of production that
needs to be filled by at least one player – if not multiple players.
Last but not least, only Houston (Week 14) ranks in the bottom
half of most points allowed to opposing fantasy tight ends. In
fact, the Colts (Week 12), Giants (Week 13) and Titans (Week 16)
all rank among the top 11 in terms of most points allowed to the
position. Perhaps Lewis gets the Kyle
Rudolph treatment this week and plays limited snaps, but it
just as possible that Lewis’ red-zone presence will be needed
immediately versus Indianapolis.
Jermaine
Gresham, Cincinnati – To be completely honest, I’m
trying to wrap my mind around the idea of trusting the Bengals’
pending free agent. However, it is notable that since Week 6,
Gresham is a top-12 tight end. In case readers think that might
have coincided with Giovani
Bernard’s absence, the running back was hurt in Week 8. Amazingly,
Gresham has seen as many red-zone targets on the season as Travis
Kelce (eight) and one fewer than Rob
Gronkowski (nine), so he’s getting the opportunities – at
least in comparison to his peers at his position. The next two
weeks are bad matchups for him – Houston defends the tight end
better than any team in the league and Tampa Bay isn’t far behind
– but the fantasy playoffs provide neutral or favorable opponents
for him. Tyler
Eifert appears to be on the verge of being ruled out for the
season, pretty much leaving all the meaningful playing time at
the position to Gresham.
Wild-card pick
Tim
Wright, New England – Handcuffs aren’t just for running
backs. Let this be another reminder that as good as Gronkowski
has been lately, he hasn’t made it through a full season since
2011. While no one is going to replicate Gronk’s numbers in the
event of an injury, it has become abundantly clear that Tom
Brady loves throwing to his tight ends in the red zone. I’ve
already discussed the state of the tight end position, so Gronk’s
owners could do much worse than to secure Wright just in case.
Defense/Special Teams
Rams – Even since St. Louis rediscovered
sacking the quarterback in Week 7, the Rams have amassed 18 sacks
over the last five games after posting one over their first five.
Wait, it gets better. Although San Diego isn’t an overly enticing
matchup this week, the Chargers are dealing with injuries up front
and to Philip
Rivers. The Rams host Oakland the following week and face
Washington the week after. Need I remind each of you that Washington
managed to make the Tampa Bay defense look dominant a week ago?
Arizona (Week 15) is a less than thrilling matchup, but the Giants
(Week 16) are yet another favorable opponent given Eli
Manning’s propensity to post multi-interception games. Also
bear in mind that DE Chris
Long should be joining the fray over the next week or two
after returning to practice prior to St. Louis’ win against Denver.
The Rams were a highly-regarded fantasy defense before the start
of the season, so perhaps this is a case of better late than never.
Suggestions, comments, about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me or follow me on Twitter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today
since 2006 and has been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football
Preview magazine since 2010. He has hosted USA Today’s hour-long,
pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday over the
past two seasons and appears as a guest analyst before and during
the season on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” as well
as 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). Doug is also a
member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. |