Do you remember how much fun flings were when you were younger (or
maybe they still are … who am I to judge what you do)? It brings
to mind to a particular episode
of Frasier from about 15 years ago. Early in the episode, Niles
meets a Café Nervosa waitress named Kit. Eventually, Kit winds up
at Niles’ place and, during a visit with Frasier and Martin, she
tells the three Crane men in regards to her fling with Niles, “I
told you, no strings … just fun.”
I mention this phrase because it somewhat accurately describes
what this season has been in terms of fantasy football: hopefully
you’ve had some fun, because the chances are pretty good
that your heart been broken more than once already. It has been
nearly impossible for owners to commit to more than a handful
of fantasy players due to a number of factors; the amount of injuries
and depth-chart changes that typically dominate the headlines
every season chief among them.
While the number of injuries probably isn’t substantially
different than years past, fantasy football seems more fluid than
ever. Didn’t it used to be that owners fortunate enough
to have (or acquire) the handcuff to the stud running back that
suffered a season-ending injury around midseason were the same
owners that were typically competing for the championship in their
league a few weeks later? This year, it almost seems like owners
that land the handcuff of the handcuff are the ones making late-season
noise in their league. Of course, that assumes said owners have
some kind of feel one way or the other regarding the identity
of one or both handcuffs.
Injuries are a part of the game and that is the one thing that
will never change in the NFL. What has changed in recent years
– and the one area owners are going to need to account for
moving forward – is the number of hard-to-explain lineup
decisions (or lineup shuffling, as I like to call it) that don’t
seem to have a logical base. Regular depth-chart movement is another
fact of life in the NFL, but allow me to cite John Crockett as
a recent example of what I’m talking about here.
Crockett is not an elite talent and probably destined to be a
backup for the bulk of what figures to be a brief NFL career,
but wasn’t he the same guy that gave the Green Bay offense
a spark when it needed one against Detroit in Week 13? How is
a spot on the inactive list the following week his reward for
that effort?
Sticking with the Packers, I have found it nearly impossible
– like many other owners – to get any kind of handle
regarding the use (or lack thereof) and handling of Eddie Lacy.
He’s either overweight or he’s not. He’s either
motivated to play or he’s not. I understand those types
of things can vary during the course of season and that coaches
feel obligated to punish certain behavior (such as Lacy missing
team curfew prior to the Week 13 game), but it doesn’t make
much sense to keep a “starting” running back active
if the plan is only to use him six times in that game, only to
say he was “rejuvenated” about three days later –
during which time they probably didn’t even practice. I
completely understand how Lacy could have “learned his lesson”
from such an ordeal, but his eventual Week 13 workload him a waste
of a game day roster spot. Perhaps HC Mike McCarthy’s intention
was to see how it went with Lacy against Detroit (and that Lacy’s
production in that case convinced McCarthy he should only see
six touches), but at some point the whole handling of the situation
becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy for the coach, the player or
both. Lacy later said his benching for missing curfew refocused
him, so does that imply that he didn’t get the first two
or three public messages McCarthy sent him?
One thing that has not changed over the years is that the grind
of the season usually catches up with NFL players. By the time
Week 15 rolls around just about every year, at least one position
on just about every team is depleted – at least from the
list of players that it opened the season with at that spot. Last
week saw more potential title-run contributors fall by the wayside,
which means owners must consider another round of players –
most of which we probably couldn’t have imagined to be fantasy-viable
even a week or two ago.
The Fun for Andy Dalton owners ended last
week.
The Injured: QB Andy
Dalton (fractured right thumb)
The Replacement:AJ
McCarron
To give you some sense of how Bengals’ fans felt about Dalton
going into this season, the fifth-year pro was booed at a celebrity
softball event during Major League Baseball’s All-Star Game festivities
in Cincinnati in the days leading up to the Midsummer Classic.
About six months later, most pundits aren’t giving Cincinnati
much of a chance to compete without him following the thumb injury
he suffered against Pittsburgh this weekend.
McCarron is a smart and confident guy, which is sometimes more
than half the battle when it comes to deciding whether a quarterback
is capable of being something more than a fill-in while the starter
is out. It also says a lot about a backup quarterback when he
is able to perform as well as he did off the bench against Pittsburgh
in Week 14. (Backup quarterbacks rarely see more than 10-15 percent
of the snaps during practice each week, so it suggests he prepares
like a starter.) Of course, the more pessimistic view is that
opponents aren’t prepared for the strengths and weaknesses
of the backup, which makes his job significantly easier.
Be that as it may, McCarron didn’t look overmatched in
his first shot at extensive NFL action. He also has a great supporting
cast to work with, even if one of its key members will be limited
or out of action this weekend (Tyler Eifert). Working against
him is an underrated slate of remaining matchups. San Francisco
(Week 15) has yielded a total of nine touchdowns in six home games
this season, Denver (Week 16) has allowed 13 touchdowns passes
in 13 games and Baltimore (Week 17) has been decent against league-average
quarterbacks for most of the season despite its awful overall
numbers against quarterbacks, only getting torched by the recognized
elite signal-callers. And, as announcers love to say during division
games, you can throw out the records when rivals meet.
Rest-of-season fantasy viability for the
replacement: Slightly above average. Owners of Dalton in
12-team (or larger) leagues probably aren’t going to do
much better than McCarron on the waiver wire, but I think I would
rather play T.J. Yates given Houston’s remaining schedule.
The Replacements for the Replacement:
Every back on the roster
You know it’s been an odd season when a team’s offense
begins to start rolling about the same time as the featured part
of said offense for the previous four-plus seasons is sidelined.
Beginning in Week 11 – the game after Marshawn Lynch last
played – Russell Wilson has posted a 16:0 touchdown-to-interception
ratio and is doing most of his damage in the pocket while competing
75.4 percent of his throws over those four contests.
Recently, I attributed Seattle’s offensive resurgence to
the breakaway threat that Rawls posed for run defenses. We’ll
get to see just how accurate I was in that assessment over this
final three-game stretch after the undrafted rookie free agent
was lost for the season in Week 14. It’s too bad for him
and his fantasy owners since Cleveland (this week’s opponent)
ranks as one of the better matchups for running backs, even though
the Browns have been much better in that regard over the last
month and a half.
In logic that only NFL front offices and coaching staffs can
understand, Bryce Brown – added for a third time to the
Seahawks’ roster – was deemed a better fit this week
than DuJuan Harris, who became the featured back following Rawls’
injury last week. Christine Michael – returning to the team
that traded him right before the start of the season - was signed
on Wednesday and early reports suggest he will be splitting early-down
reps with Brown. Meanwhile, Fred Jackson, who has been with the
team since Michael was traded, appears to have no chance to grab
anything more than the third-down role he had before Rawls’
injury.
Rest-of-season fantasy viability for the
replacement: Minimal. At this point, the roster status
of Brown and Michael can be considered no better than week-to-week.
Whereas a lot of coaches talk about riding the “hot hand”,
this might actually be one of those situations where that will
be the case, at least until Lynch gets back. With Rawls out of
the picture, Seattle really needs Lynch or else its late-season
run could fizzle out early in the postseason.
The Replacement:Denard Robinson
Fortunately for Yeldon, his injury is not season-ending in the
traditional sense. However, it figures to be season-ending for
his owners and possibly for his team since Jacksonville could
easily see its unlikely playoff hopes become virtually nonexistent
if he is forced to miss the next two weeks, as expected.
Whether people want to admit it right now or not, Robinson is
probably one of the best backup runners in the league and the
quintessential second-string running back in that he can carry
a running game for a short period of time. We saw this very phenomenon
play out last year when he produced two 100-yard rushing efforts
in the middle of the season during which it was difficult for
any other Jaguar running back to exceed 50. The difference this
time around is a healthy Allen
Robinson, the presence of Julius
Thomas and a much more confident Blake
Bortles. “Shoelace” showed just how capable he was again last
week, rushing for 75 yards and a touchdown 14 carries in a blowout
win over Indianapolis.
Rest-of-season fantasy viability for the
replacements: High. For owners whose league championship
is decided this week and/or next week, Robinson could easily be
a huge difference-maker. Atlanta (Week 15) and New Orleans (Week
16) rank as the first- and third-most accommodating defenses,
respectfully, against running backs and don’t appear to
be on the verge of improving in that area anytime soon either.
Robinson was featured after Yeldon’s departure last week
and should remain in the same capacity as long as the rookie is
sidelined. He should be on the radar of redraft and DFS owners
alike as a flex option, at the very worst.
The Replacements: Every back on
the roster (again)
At the beginning of the month, HC Ron Rivera suggested he would
be looking for chances to “spell” Stewart in order
to keep him healthy for what the Panthers hope will be a long
playoff run. It looks like he’ll get his wish, although
it won’t come in the manner he hoped it would. Fortunately
for Stewart, neither the injury nor the timetable for his return
appears to be substantial.
Based solely on snap counts and on-field contributions so far
this year, Fozzy Whittaker and Mike Tolbert would seem to be the
clear leaders in the clubhouse when it comes to replacing Stewart.
However, ESPN reporter David Newton wrote less than two weeks
ago that Cameron Artis-Payne would take over as the every-down
back if Stewart was to get hurt and Rivera himself said this week
that his rookie will “get his share of opportunities”.
Some owners may realize that Artis-Payne has been inactive the
last six games, but it stands to reason since Carolina really
doesn’t need to carry four running backs on its game day
roster considering that Whittaker and Tolbert play special teams
already and Cam Newton is, in many ways, Stewart’s “breather”
back.
Rest-of-season fantasy viability for the
replacements: Minimal. It makes all the sense in the world
for the Panthers to plug Artis-Payne into Stewart’s slot
this week (and for however much longer his foot needs to heal).
There’s virtually no chance that he’ll see the 20
carries per game that has become Stewart’s norm recently,
but owners should be able to count on 12-15. The problem is there
is no guarantee what should happen will happen in terms of distribution
and virtually no chance the rookie scores a goal-line touchdown
(Newton and Tolbert will be the heavy favorites there). Thus,
any owner that takes the chance on starting Artis-Payne this week
needs to recognize his floor – if he does in fact lead a
committee – is probably about 40 yards with little chance
for a touchdown and only a slightly better chance to contribute
more than 1-2 catches as a receiver. Gambling on Artis-Payne is
a low-upside move at a time of the year where owners demand significant
upside.
The Replacement:Brandon Bolden
Back in the day when staying four years in college was the thing,
it was common for an opposing team’s fans to make some kind
of reference about that a particular star play was in his sixth,
eighth or 10th year of college because that is how long it seemed
like he was a thorn in the side of his opponents. Bolden has only
provided a few moderately productive games as a pro and is more
of a special teams standout than anything else, but I was genuinely
surprised to learn he is only in his fourth season as a pro; he
seems to pop up on the fantasy radar for one reason year after
year. Back to present day, here we are near the end of another
season and, yet again, Bolden is ready to be fantasy-viable yet
again thanks to the rash of injuries New England has suffered
to its running back corps.
Before we dismiss Bolden as a player that will eventually break
our heart during fantasy playoff time, let’s consider the
other options in the backfield: James White. That’s it,
that’s the list. Montee Ball was added to the practice squad
this week, but reportedly checked in at 230 pounds and is probably
at least 2-3 weeks away from contributing in any way, shape or
form. The team also hosted Steven Jackson this week, but that
visit could be nothing more than updating an emergency list. The
point to be made here is that while fantasy owners could still
very well get tricked by Bill Belichick yet again, the odds of
that happening now are no worse than 50-50 in what is typically
one of the more productive backfields in fantasy.
Rest-of-season fantasy viability for the
replacement: Moderately high. Allow me go on the record
right away and say I would not want to put my hopes on winning
a fantasy title in Bolden’s (or Belichick’s) hands.
With that said, Bolden is a jack-of-all-trades running back that
Belichick will be more comfortable with in all situations than
he probably was with Blount. It seems unlikely that Bolden will
eat into White’s role much, but it is certainly possible
that Bolden sees more regular touches than Blount did because
he does possess an all-around skill set. Tennessee (Week 15) and
the New York Jets (Week 16) appear to be games more suited for
White than Bolden, but I think there’s a pretty decent chance
Bolden ends up as the most valuable contributor since I can easily
see him splitting the passing-game touches and hogging most –
if not all – of the early-down work.
The Replacements:Chris
Gragg and Nick
O'Leary
Five years and $38 million with $20 million guaranteed doesn’t
buy what it used to. That’s not really a knock on Clay,
who I feel is still one of the top 10 or so tight ends in the
league (and certainly one of the more versatile). Barring a pair
of nine-catch games during the time Sammy Watkins was struggling
to stay healthy, it is hard to see why Buffalo made signing Clay
such a huge priority since he only has 33 receptions in the team’s
other 11 contests.
Gragg has long been one of my under-the-radar favorites at tight
end, but if OC Greg Roman is struggling to get Clay involved in
the game plan every week, I don’t see where that is going
to change with Gragg taking most of the snaps. O’Leary is
a deficient blocker that lacks the overall talent of Clay and
Gragg, making him even more of a longshot to enjoy fantasy value
anytime soon.
Rest-of-season fantasy viability for the
replacements: Minimal. Clay is considered day-to-day, but
back injuries are unpredictable, which is the only reason I chose
to include Clay & Co. Gragg has nine catches for 115 yards
on 16 targets this season in five games, so he has been able to
display a bit of the playmaking ability that keeps him on my radar.
With that said, Washington (Week 15) and Dallas (Week 16) are
far from great matchups for tight ends, meaning there is really
nothing to see here for the rest of the fantasy season.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.