For the majority of owners, the fantasy playoffs begin next week.
In some high-stakes leagues like the The
Fantasy Championship, the postseason begins this week and the
league champion is decided next week (although the postseason continues
through Week 16 as owners compete for the $200,000 grand prize).
Regardless of when the fantasy postseason starts in your league
or the position you are in to begin the playoffs, we can all benefit
from players with favorable matchups the rest of the way or those
who are play away from shifting the balance of power in your league.
I identified potential league-winning picks back in late August
in the TFC and FFPC
and still stand by most of the selections I made then. However,
it goes without saying time has a way of changing things, meaning
what once looked unfavorable now looks good and vice versa. The
loss of a player like Atlanta Falcons CB Desmond Trufant for the
rest of the season removes a corner capable of limiting the production
of all but the most elite receivers in the league, while the emergence
of players like Michael Thomas and Davante Adams alters the targets
and matchups for players such as Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb.
Every season tends to produce at least a few players who put
fantasy teams on their back over the final 3-4 weeks of the season
and carry them to a title. A late-season injury to a current starter
tends to be the most common path for these rags-to-riches stories,
but that is usually only half the battle, as the situation must
be at least somewhat conducive to success and it certainly helps
if the schedule cooperates. Obviously, I am of no service to you
if I only provide players that are 100 percent owned, so the purpose
of this article will be to identify the players available in most
leagues. Many analysts will try to do this kind of thing next
week, but most owners in competitive leagues tend to look a week
or two ahead and not leave it to chance and hope their waiver-wire
pot of gold is sitting there for them the very week they need
it.
Below is a list of players available in at least 75 percent of
Yahoo leagues. I arrived at that number in order to avoid the
no-brainer adds such as Kenneth Dixon, Sammy Watkins or C.J. Fiedorowicz
- all of whom, quite frankly, should have been on someone's roster
weeks ago. I'd also just as soon try to avoid the narrowing the
scope so far as to tell owners to stash Kenjon Barner when a player
like Dixon or Ameer Abdullah is still available. I listed the
players by position and in the order of significance.
Since the start of November, Colin Kaepernick
has been the second-best QB in fantasy football.
Quarterbacks
Colin
Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers Remaining fantasy schedule: @CHI, NYJ,
@ATL, LA
In regards to Kaepernick, I'm sure I've heard it all in terms
of why owners don't want to play him in fantasy. If you don't
like what he stands for or care for his methods, to each their
own. Here's what I do know: Since the start of November (after
his first two starts), Kaepernick has been the second-best quarterback
in fantasy football, behind only Aaron Rodgers. He's been slightly
better than Marcus Mariota and Drew Brees, and he's been significantly
better than Tom Brady and Dak Prescott among many others. In other
words, hasn't Kaepernick essentially been what most of us expected
he would be in a Chip Kelly offense over the last month? We've
seen this phenomenon time and time again: average to below-average
quarterbacks in reality who can run thrive in fantasy football
because they consistently add 5-15 points every week to their
passing numbers - many of which come in garbage time - and the
result is often a 30-point day in fantasy. His remaining schedule
is hardly daunting to say the least and it isn't a stretch to
say he is the majority of the San Francisco offense right now.
I was able to snag him in a league or two in which I had been
relying on Eli Manning most of the year and highly doubt I'll
go back to Eli now.
Running Backs
Ameer
Abdullah, Detroit Lions Remaining fantasy schedule: @NO, CHI,
@NYG, @DAL
As will be the case with most of the running backs below, they
do not have clear path to playing time yet or cannot be considered
a sure thing to return from injury this season, as is the case
here. We basically had one game to see what Abdullah was capable
of before he went down with a foot injury in Week 2 and thrived
in that spot, accumulating 120 total yards and a touchdown against
the Indianapolis Colts. In the weeks since, Detroit has received
virtually nothing from his replacements and been forced to rely
on Theo Riddick's 10 carries per game and his handful of touches
as a receiver out of the backfield as its ground game. At the
very least, Abdullah gives the Lions a plus-version of Riddick
who is capable of running between the tackles and near the goal
line. Obviously, all we know now is the scheduled checkup on Abdullah's
foot "went well" and that he has a chance to make it
back before the end of the season. Serviceable RB2s typically
don't fall from the heavens every week, so owners in deeper leagues
need to find room for the second-year back in the event he can
contribute sometime before Christmas, and he is a perfect IR stash
for owners in leagues that have a spot or two designated for such
players. In the worst-case scenario for your fantasy teams, he
can be dropped in a couple of weeks when he is ruled out for the
rest of the regular season. In the best-case scenario, owners
have another flex option during the fantasy playoffs and one no
other owner can use (because you had the foresight to add him
first). Thousands and likely millions of dollars in prize money
has been won in fantasy football leagues over the years by playing
keep-a-way.
Shane
Vereen, NY Giants Remaining fantasy schedule: @PIT, DAL,
DET, @PHI
I'm not sure I can remember an 8-3 team with such a disappointing
offense. The running game was never meant to be the strength of
this team, but the up-tempo passing attack was supposed to carry
the Giants while all the new talent on defense gelled. Well, the
team has essentially thrived in spite of the offense. Be that
as it may, Vereen was actually the one good thing this offense
had going for it in September, and it is entirely reasonable to
believe he could step right back into the same breather back/third-down
role he left following his Week 3 triceps injury as early as Week
14. Rashad Jennings disappointed in a great spot last week versus
Cleveland and the Giants don't seem to want to rely too much on
rookie Paul Perkins yet (pass protection is a concern with him),
although his use last week was curious to say the least. Vereen
is probably the back Eli Manning feels most comfortable with and
likely the one New York believes its passing offense fits the
best. Owners thinking about stashing Vereen should expect a serviceable
flex player capable of rounding out a fantasy lineup, not a RB2
capable of performing like a RB1. With that said, someone with
Vereen's skill-set has a very good chance of being useful during
the final three weeks of the fantasy season (assuming he is cleared
to return by Week 14), especially given the mix of teams with
strong run defenses or the likelihood New York will be playing
from behind.
Rex
Burkhead, Cincinnati Bengals Remaining fantasy schedule: PHI, @CLE,
PIT, @HOU
Burkhead had the misfortune of being selected in the sixth round
by the same team that invested a second-round pick into Giovani Bernard the same year. The Bengals added Jeremy Hill in the next
draft, pretty much slamming the door on any hope Burkhead had
of establishing a somewhat meaningful offensive role in Cincinnati.
Bernard (ACL) is out for the year now and Hill has turned in four
straight games with fewer than four yards per carry, so there
may be an opportunity forthcoming for the Nebraska product. In
no way am I suggesting Burkhead is on the verge of overtaking
Hill on the depth chart, but let this serve as a reminder that
Hill came very close to suffering a significant ankle injury last
week and career special-teamer Cedric Peerman is the only other
back on the depth chart. Burkhead is a more impressive player
than he appears to be at first glance, and while he isn't exactly
someone a team would want to put into the feature back role, he
can be an effective combo back if given the chance. That alone
is worth something at a position where there are seemingly never
enough good options at this point of the season.
Alfred
Morris, Dallas Cowboys Remaining fantasy schedule: @MIN, @NYG,
TB, DET
While the first three running backs listed above all have some
degree of standalone value now, the remaining ones do not and
need an injury to a player in front of them in order to be worthy
of a start. The reason they are included is because each of them
would arguably be RB2s at worst if the back in front of them got
hurt, and most likely high-end RB1s. Morris is such a valuable
handcuff that I held onto him all season in a deeper league in
which I didn't own Ezekiel Elliott. While Elliott has shown no
signs of slowing down (and I don't expect him to), running backs
can be lost for multiple weeks without warning and it would be
silly for owners - especially those who own Elliott - to leave
it up to something as trivial as waiver priority or what's left
of their blind-bidding dollars to secure an asset that should
cost next to nothing at the moment. Elliott owners should hope
they never have to use Morris, but most should be able to find
room for a player that provides as much peace of mind as he does.
Best case scenario: Morris burns a spot on the bench while Zeke
goes crazy every week. Worst-case scenario: Morris posts low-end
RB1 numbers after Elliott suffers a multi-game injury this week
and allows his owners to survive in the playoffs until the rookie
returns.
DeAngelo
Williams, Pittsburgh Steelers Remaining fantasy schedule: NYG, @BUF,
@CIN, BAL
Everything I just said about Morris above basically applies to
Williams, who is likely back this week after sitting out the last
three games due to minor knee surgery. Although I have repeatedly
said Le'Veon Bell's injuries have been flukier more than anything
else thus far in his career (thanks, Vontaze Burfict), the fact
of the matter is he will continue to be a bit of an injury and/or
off-field risk until he proves that he is not. To their credit,
the Steelers are using Bell as a receiver more than ever (over
seven catches per game), so the odds of him missing time the rest
of this season appear slim. Still, Williams - even at age 33 -
has proven multiple times he can be effective for multiple weeks
with heavy workloads, and Pittsburgh will not hesitate to use
him in a workhorse role yet again if Bell should miss time. Both
Morris and Williams have been owned in all of my leagues all year
- I dropped a significant amount of my blind-bidding dollars to
get Williams in the two leagues he was dropped a few weeks ago
- so consider this a reminder to make sure neither slipped through
the cracks in your leagues. Players so close to guaranteed RB1
production are always valuable, even if their actual fantasy value
is nil right now. One week can really change everything.
Jalen
Richard, Oakland Raiders Remaining fantasy schedule: BUF, @KC,
@SD, IND
Among the many favors NFL coaches do not provide fantasy owners
are regular updates on their depth chart. If you do a quick search
across your league(s), there's probably better than a 50-50 chance
DeAndre Washington is owned and Richard is not. Washington was
a healthy scratch last week after playing four snaps in Week 11.
If he is about to explode onto the fantasy scene, it won't be
because the Raiders intended for it to happen. Richard, on the
other hand, has logged between 12-18 snaps in each of the last
four weeks, suggesting he has clearly moved ahead of Washington
and would be the back to own if Latavius Murray was forced to
miss time. Jamize Olawale frustratingly continues to steal snaps
and touches from both players and likely would be more active
if Murray couldn't play, but Richard would certainly have a pretty
clear path to RB2 value if it happened. The undrafted rookie free
agent falls this low on the list for two reasons: 1) he wouldn't
be featured in the event of an injury to Murray and 2) outside
of the Colts in Week 16, I also wouldn't characterize his upcoming
matchups as being overly favorable, but he belongs here because
he has big-play ability and runs behind one of the better lines
in the league.
Of the running backs we'll discuss, Hunt is easily the one that
is the most off the fantasy radar. In theory, he is behind the
injured Alfred Blue on the depth chart, although I'm not sure
that should have ever been the case or if it is now. At 5-10 and
190 pounds, Hunt isn't ever going to become a featured back, but
he is the kind of well-rounded combo back that tends to be a good
fit as a complementary back in a committee, not to mention one
who adds a bit of explosiveness to what has become a "small-ball"
offense. The Texans love Lamar Miller, but he has battled through
his share of injuries this season. Should he miss his first game
in four years sometime this December, Houston would be smart to
lean more on Hunt than Blue, especially considering how much Brock Osweiler has struggled. Given Osweiler's ineffectiveness downfield
so far, it is rather surprising the running back position hasn't
been targeted just as heavily as tight ends C.J. Fiedorowicz and
Ryan Griffin. Be that as it may, Miller still is on pace for about
40 catches and one would think Hunt would see the bulk of that
work in the passing game should Miller be sidelined. In such a
scenario, Hunt would also get at least half of the early-down
work as well, which would put him squarely on the flex radar.
The upside here is much more limited than it is with any other
back mentioned above, so keep that in mind when considering how
he could fit into your future plans.
Wide Receivers
Taylor
Gabriel, Atlanta Falcons Remaining fantasy schedule: KC, @LA,
SF, @CAR
Ted
Ginn Jr., Carolina Panthers Remaining fantasy schedule: @SEA, SD,
@WAS, ATL
Marqise
Lee, Jacksonville Jaguars Remaining fantasy schedule: DEN, MIN,
@HOU, TEN
I'm going to pair these top three together for the simple fact
they should already be owned in the majority of leagues, not just
on 25 percent of them. Gabriel has by far the most upside of the
bunch given the offense he plays in and his remaining schedule.
Over the last five weeks in PPR scoring (with his bye week included),
the Cleveland Browns castoff is 13th among receivers in total
fantasy points and seventh in fantasy points per game. In standard
leagues, those ranks are sixth and second, respectively. Whether
or not we like his current "niche" role in this offense
or not, his high-upside targets aren't going to decrease anytime
soon simply because the defense's other options each week are
to disrespect the running game and/or Julio Jones. Yes, he'll
be hard to trust going forward, but he has earned the right to
be considered a flex option in all leagues at the very least despite
his consistent lack of volume.
Although he doesn't possess the upside Gabriel now does, Ginn's
involvement in the Panthers' offense has increased significantly
since Week 5. He has at least six targets in all but one game
since then and at least five catches and 40 yards in all but two.
While I'll be the first to admit that doesn't sound all that impressive,
Ginn is a big-play threat who doesn't need a lot of opportunities
in order to put points on the board. With no fewer than nine PPR
points in any of his last six games and Kelvin Benjamin not exactly
displaying the same kind of dominance that made him such a hot
name in September, Ginn could be a bit of a high-upside stabilizing
force for a fantasy team looking to tie up a loose end at the
receiver position.
Lee is already enjoying a career season, which sums up part of
the reason owners have been slow to warm up to him in 2016. He's
never stayed healthy for any length of time as a pro, so he's
not trustworthy. Blake Bortles has torpedoed the Jaguars' offense
to a large degree, but owners need to realize he is leaning on
Lee now about as much as he is Allen Robinson. Granted, that doesn't
mean nearly as much this year as it did last year, but there has
been a lot more good than bad for Lee this season. The reason
he finds himself behind Gabriel and Ginn is the remaining schedule.
While he'll likely see his fair share of targets going forward,
Jacksonville's next three matchups are about as difficult as one
could ask for in succession for wide receivers.
Marquess
Wilson, Chicago Bears Remaining fantasy schedule: SF, @DET,
GB, WAS
Under normal circumstances, a player like Wilson shouldn't be
considered a viable fantasy option for any number of reasons,
most notably the fact that Matt Barkley (or David Fales) will
be his quarterback for the rest of the year. However, Chicago's
offense is in such disarray right now that third and fourth options
(at best) previously are now primary weapons, and Wilson has never
lacked in the talent department. Durability is another matter
entirely, but owners only need him to make it a quarter of the
season this time. While Alshon Jeffery is eligible to return in
Week 15 from his PED suspension, there's no guarantee he has established
any kind of chemistry with Barkley or if Chicago even wants to
trot him out there with draft position and developing youngsters
probably more of a priority over the last three games of the season
than winning. Wilson has dabbled with fantasy relevance before
and shouldn't be overlooked now just because his situation is
somewhere between bad and awful. A player capable of being a lead
receiver on any NFL team is generally worth at least a flex start
in deeper leagues and volume should be on Wilson's side going
forward, as the Bears are hopelessly banged-up on both sides of
the ball, so they will be throwing the ball. The remaining schedule
also very much works in Wilson's favor. Owners shouldn't expect
a repeat of his Week 12 line (8-125-1 on 11 targets) anytime soon,
but he is more than capable of setting a floor around 4-6 catches
and 55-75 yards if he continues to see 7-8 targets per game, which
seems perfectly doable.
Malcolm
Mitchell, New England Patriots Remaining fantasy schedule: LA, BAL,
@DEN, NYJ
It is rare Tom Brady finds a connection with a receiver, much
less a rookie, so it is definitely notable when he starts to sing
the praises of any of his wideouts. Playing time is going to be
hard to come by in New England this season because the Patriots
probably aren't going to move Chris Hogan down the depth chart
anytime soon, and New England already has Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola more than capable of playing outside as well as inside.
However, with Rob Gronkowski ailing and Martellus Bennett still
far from 100 percent, there is room for potential targets for
a player like Mitchell. Is there risk with him? Of course. The
minute the offense approaches something resembling full strength,
he is liable to become an afterthought again. But what if Gronk
and The Black Unicorn are limited in some way for the rest of
the regular season? Brandon LaFell had his moment in the sun in
2014 in the role Mitchell occupies and the rookie is better now
than LaFell ever was. In the event Gronk and Bennett can't get
healthy over the next month, I'd be willing to say Mitchell could
approach low-end WR3 value in deeper leagues in three of the next
four games (Week 15 at Denver being the exception). Owners can
always do worse than bet on good talent in great offenses led
by Hall-of-Fame worthy quarterbacks.
Mike Wallace owners wanting to know where his early-season touchdowns
have wandered off to need look no further than Perriman. Granted,
he has only scored twice (both in the last three weeks) and isn't
a full-time player yet (he's been in the mid-20s the last two
weeks after seeing no fewer than 32 in any game since Week 4),
but it seems pretty clear to me Perriman is starting to earn Joe Flacco's trust. Whether that turns into anything significant this
year or not is another story, but the process is starting now.
If Baltimore hopes to be anything more than a one-and-done team
in the playoffs, it could very much use Wallace and Perriman scaring
defenses vertically while Steve Smith works the middle of the
field. The Ravens also realize 2016 probably isn't going to be
their year in terms of winning a Super Bowl, so doing what they
can to further Perriman's development this season should be one
of the priorities. Last year's No. 26 overall pick is really only
a deep-league consideration this year since Flacco isn't playing
well consistently enough to make any receiver a must-start, but
the schedule should allow for a role player like Perriman to hit
another deep shot or two before the season comes to a close.
Tight Ends
Vernon
Davis, Washington Redskins Remaining fantasy schedule: @ARI, PHI,
CAR, @CHI
The general consensus seems to be Jordan Reed is day-to-day and
will be listed as questionable for Week 13. That may very well
be the case, but I can't believe any player who needs to catch
passes for a living who has roughly 30 percent range of motion
in his shoulder is going to be very effective for the rest of
this season. As such, I'd be stunned if he plays full-time snaps
anytime soon and shocked if he is productive in any game the rest
of the season. Kirk Cousins may not be willing to lean on Davis
quite as much as he does Reed, but HC Jay Gruden uses him in much
the same way and the matchups will be favorable for Redskins'
tight ends in Weeks 15 and 16. I may not be willing to give Gruden
credit for much, but he has figured out how to utilize the tight
end position in Washington. At a position where it is difficult
to find more than 6-8 players who were actually worth starting
in a given week in fantasy, playing Davis in those weeks - especially
if Reed is as limited as I think he will be - could pay off in
a big way.
While the Jamie Collins trade was certainly the most shocking
deal of the season, Derby to Denver was a close second in my book.
The Patriots' sixth-round pick last season was highly impressive
this summer and seemed like a logical candidate to move up the
depth chart in 2017 if/when New England moved on from Martellus Bennett. Denver acquired him for a fifth-rounder in late October
and he's already started to make an impact. In case we need a
reminder, HC Gary Kubiak helped Owen Daniels become a two-time
Pro Bowler, simply because the tight end in his offense almost
always runs a short, high-percentage route across the middle of
the field, usually putting him directly in the sightline of the
quarterback. Defenses typically will let a quarterback have a
three-to-five yard pass because it plays into the defensive mindset
of keeping everything in front of the linebackers and safeties.
At any rate, Trevor Siemian profiles much more like the quarterbacks
Kubiak had in Houston than Peyton Manning, so it is reasonable
to assume as soon as he has someone he trusts at tight end again,
Kubiak will have his next Owen Daniels. While I wouldn't want
to make the mistake of comparing Derby to Gronk, it was a few
of Derby's Gronk-like qualities that made the trade to New England's
biggest non-AFC East rival so surprising to me. Derby is definitely
a dynasty asset in my eyes, and I wouldn't be overly shocked if
he becomes a low-end fantasy starter by the end of this season
given his combination of skill and schedule.
Ladarius
Green, Pittsburgh Steelers
Remaining fantasy schedule: NYG, @BUF, @CIN, BAL
In my experts' dynasty league, I added Green roughly two minutes
after he was dropped by the previous owner back in late August
despite the fact I already own Rob Gronkowski and Kyle Rudolph.
In other words, I think very highly of his fit in the Steelers'
offense. While I still don't believe Green will be able to work
his way into must-start status by the end of this year, the fact
that it is remotely possible speaks to how gifted he is. (Remember,
he didn't log his first practice with the team until Oct. 25,
as he missed the entire offseason due to concussion concerns and
ankle surgery.) Beyond Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh
lacks another option who can threaten the defense over the middle
or down the field, so there is a void for Green's services. HC
Mike Tomlin told reporters this week that he expects Green will
see more snaps moving forward, which admittedly may not mean all
that much when you consider his season-high snap count is 14.
Nevertheless, when he is capable of getting 67 yards on two catches
like he did Thanksgiving night, he probably doesn't need to be
a full-time player to be useful in fantasy. Green could be a reasonable
play in Weeks 13 and 15, so owners playing the position week-to-week
may want to consider him then. For what it's worth, I fully anticipate
he will be a top-eight tight end in 2017, health permitting.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.