On a fairly regular basis, I debate the pluses and minuses of owners
drafting before the final 1 1/2 weeks of the preseason - especially
in high-stakes leagues. Obviously, my stance on drafting late is
not the norm (anymore) because there are plenty of high-stakes leagues
that are open for business right around the start of the NFL Draft.
In my opinion, the upside of landing players like Chris
Carson and David
Montgomery in the fifth and sixth rounds during the spring and
early summer pales in comparison to the downside of losing an every-week
starter for the season before Week 1. We were reminded of the perils
of drafting early over the weekend, as Andrew
Luck shockingly announced his retirement before turning 30 years
old and Lamar Miller
tore two ligaments in his knee on his first and only carry of the
preseason.
The problem with an elite quarterback retiring for fantasy purposes
isn't so much that owners' seasons are ruined due to his absence
(there's plenty of depth at the position now), but rather the
trickle-down effect that comes along with the drop-off in talent
from Luck to Jacoby Brissett. Obviously, the situation could be
much worse for the Colts, as Brissett has been getting all of
the first-team reps throughout the summer and his experience as
the starter during the 2017 season. Perhaps more importantly,
he has a better coaching staff, better skill-position talent surrounding
him and a better offensive line blocking for him. He's also a
more mature player, and it's often easy for fantasy owners to
remember that players can improve their game (from the last time
we saw them in regular-season action) through practice and their
offseason activities.
In other words, the sky is not exactly falling in Indianapolis
as much as it could be. However, it would be foolish to suggest
the expectations haven't changed for every fantasy property wearing
the horseshoe. For example, HC Frank Reich's talk this summer
about wanting Marlon Mack to carry the load in the backfield.
He should get that chance now, but more volume doesn't always
equal more fantasy production - especially when defenses don't
have to respect the passing game in the same way they needed to
with Luck. The automatic assumption with T.Y. Hilton is that he
will repeat his disappointing 57-catch, 966-yard campaign with
Brissett from 2017. That's not necessarily going to be the case,
as Indianapolis only attempted 487 passes that season (644 last
year). The biggest difference for him could be his efficiency.
Hilton caught only 52.3 percent of the passes thrown in his direction
two years ago (as opposed to 63.3 in 2018). Eric Ebron was already
a strong candidate to experience touchdown regression in 2018
before Luck's retirement. He's definitely a strong candidate now.
While a top-12 finish isn't completely out of the question given
how much Reich keeps the tight end involved, owners should definitely
consider Ebron a TE2 now and hope for the best.
In regards to Miller, he became a zero-RB favorite over the years
given how consistently he finished inside the top 20 fantasy backs
at the cost of a fifth- or sixth-round pick in drafts. Do the
Texans simply slide Duke Johnson into his place and hope he can
handle the same kind of workload as his fellow University of Miami
alum? I personally think he could - people have been way too quick
to pigeonhole him as little more than a passing-down back after
Cleveland went through three head coaches and four different play-callers
during his four-year stay there. He is 5-9 and 210 pounds and
did plenty of running in between the tackles during his college
career (shockingly, not all of his 526 college rushing attempts
were tosses and outside zones). He holds the Hurricanes' record
for rushing and all-purpose yards and has yet to miss a game in
his pro career. That's a pretty solid resume for a player for
a "scatback" - one considered too small to be what qualifies
as a bell-cow back nowadays. I personally believe Damarea Crockett
could end up being a low-rent Latavius Murray to Johnson's Alvin Kamara - albeit with far less fantasy upside in both cases - but
HC Bill O'Brien has typically opted to roll with one main back
throughout his coaching career.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.