Post-Week 1 fantasy football content typically attempts to do the
near impossible: draw solid long-term conclusions from a one-game
sample. Why does the industry do this? Because 7.1 percent of the
season passes at the conclusion of every weekend during a 14-game
fantasy regular season. At least two teams are on bye in half of
those 14 weeks, meaning we get our full complement of players only
seven times before the fantasy playoffs. In short, the urgency to
win is magnified every week - perhaps even more so in those seven
"full" weeks.
Another thing post-Week 1 content tries to do is calm the masses
after a few highly regarded players suffered a multi-week injury
or failed to meet expectations. Managers can (and should) prepare
for key players missing time because injuries are unavoidable
in football, but they can only do so much to replace a first-round
talent - especially in early September. If we knew there was a
carbon copy of Puka Nacua available in the 14th round on draft
day, he would not be available that late.
However, panic is the one avoidable behavior that occurs every
year around this time, usually because of a player we believe
is underperforming (or failing to perform up to his fantasy draft
slot). Panic (or fear) is usually the product of ignorance. Ignorance
in this industry is usually the result of not watching every game
(or the right ones at least). Panic serves no purpose as a fantasy
manager, other than maybe keeping them from winning a league (or
multiple leagues).
I will not go so far as to say the two points below are solid
long-term conclusions to a one-game sample. However, I feel good
enough about each one to believe they have a great chance of happening.
I did not believe that Baker Mayfield would thrive without Dave
Canales, but I think he will.
There is an argument to be made that Mayfield's success last
season and in Week 1 is more about his supporting cast in Tampa
Bay (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan among others)
than anything he is doing well. His emergence could be written
off as nothing more than facing mostly low-quality pass defenses
he has faced since Week 10 last season. I naturally assumed -
as I am sure many others did - that the departure of Canales (last
year's offensive coordinator) would be something of a crushing
blow to Mayfield from a fantasy perspective - much as it seemed
to be for Geno Smith the year prior.
Let's take a look at Mayfield's last few games, shall we?
Baker Mayfield's Last 12 Games
Year-Week
Opp
Cmp
Att
PYds
TDs
INTs
Ru Att
Ru Yds
Ru TDs
FPTs
2023-10
TEN
18
29
278
2
1
3
12
0
20.3
2023-11
at SF
29
45
246
1
1
3
5
0
14.3
2023-12
at IND
20
30
199
2
1
3
14
0
17.4
2023-13
CAR
14
29
202
1
1
2
-2
0
11.9
2023-14
at ATL
14
29
144
2
0
3
3
1
20.1
2023-15
at GB
22
28
381
4
0
2
-2
0
31.0
2023-16
JAC
26
35
283
2
0
5
5
0
19.8
2023-17
NO
22
33
309
2
2
1
-1
0
20.3
2023-18
at CAR
20
32
137
0
0
5
7
0
6.2
2023-Wild Card
PHI
22
36
337
3
0
2
16
0
27.1
2023-Div Rd
at DET
26
41
349
3
2
2
15
0
27.5
2024-1
WAS
24
30
289
4
0
3
21
0
29.7
Totals
257
397
3154
26
8
34
93
1
246
Avg (12 games)
21.4
33
263
2
0.7
2.8
7.75
0
20.5
Pace (17 games)
364
562
4468
37
11
48
132
1
348
How much longer can we call Mayfield a product of his environment
and not give him the credit he deserves? It may have taken his
two touchdown throws to Evans in the opener to make me a believer,
but I am there now. For the purposes of this discussion, it is
not all that important Evans does a lot to make him look good.
What is important for fantasy managers is that Mayfield is consistently
putting the ball in spots Evans can win. With Godwin not back
to his home in the slot and McMillan also making plays, life is
good for the former Heisman Trophy winner. While Mayfield's lack
of rushing upside and occasional dud against some of the best
pass defenses serves as a reminder he is not a set-it-and-forget-it
fantasy QB1, we have to acknowledge he has thrown for at least
three touchdowns in his last three outings and accounted for multiple
scores in seven of his last eight.
Managers of Terry McLaurin and Marvin Harrison Jr. need to forget
Week 1 ever happened.
Beginning with the veteran, McLaurin was a victim of a few things
out of his control. Jayden Daniels only dropped back 33 times
and attempted 24 throws. (By comparison, Matthew Stafford threw
to Cooper Kupp 21 times on Sunday night!) The No. 2 overall pick's
average depth of target was a meager 5.2 yards. Daniels only attempted
one throw longer than 15 yards and ran 16 times. He looked like
a rookie making his first NFL start, especially early. That's
OK. One reason that was the case: Tampa Bay blitzed him 42.4 percent
of the time in the opener.
It was clear from the opening drive that OC Kliff Kingsbury had
a problem that did not have a great answer: he had a rookie quarterback
making his first start working behind a sub-par offensive line
and facing a blitz-happy defensive coach (Todd Bowles). It appears
almost as if Kingsbury drilled into Daniels' mind that he would
only have enough time to make one read before it was time to run
- assuming he didn't throw a pass in the flat to a running back.
It was almost disturbing how often Daniels did not bother to look
left (where McLaurin lined up on 41-of-48 snaps). Daniels opted
to throw to his first read on 75 percent of his throws, while
McLaurin was the first read on only 16.7 of Washington's first
read and designed targets. This kind of thing will happen when
a quarterback is making his first professional start, especially
when facing a blitz on almost half of his drop-backs and the defense
is taking steps to eliminate his top target.
With that said, Daniels may have been more "rusty"
than anything. Young quarterbacks need more reps to adjust to
the difference in speed from college football to preseason football
to regular-season football. What amounts to a half of preseason
action (29 snaps) is not close to enough. That is not fair to
them or their development.
Yet, the one deep attempt Daniels unleashed - one that would
have gone for a 70-yard score to begin the second half - is likely
a pass he will connect with McLaurin on in a week or two. Better
days are ahead, perhaps as soon as this weekend against the Giants.
CB Nick McCloud (knee) may not play, while Deonte Banks and Cor'Dale
Flott have yet to experience much success in their young careers.
McLaurin figures to draw Banks the most on Sunday, but it probably
does not matter who guards him the most. New York's corners may
be the worst in the league. I cannot explain why Kingsbury did
not design more touches for McLaurin, but the new play-caller
will not keep his job very long if he doesn't start.
Harrison's day was eerily similar to McLaurin's. The major differences:
Harrison suffered an early drop and was never targeted deep. The
three deep throws Kyler Murray uncorked went to Trey McBride (two)
and Greg Dortch (one). It is also worth noting that a Buffalo
defense that did not change much in the offseason was stingy against
receivers last season, finishing seventh in the fewest fantasy
points allowed to the position. They are off to a similar start
in 2024 after keeping Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill in check in
Week 2 (combined seven catches for 65 yards). This comes on the
heels of holding the three Arizona receivers who found the box
score to eight catches for 56 scoreless yards. Miami's lack of
success against Buffalo may be the best reason to treat Harrison's
Week 1 as a mirage. He is still one of the most complete receiver
prospects to enter the league in a while and he has a quarterback
capable of helping him fulfill his potential.
Fantasy managers should also take note of this: OC Drew Petzing
admitted being "a
little bit surprised" with the amount of respect the
Bills paid Harrison early in the opener. Does that excuse the
lack of targets Harrison saw? Not really, if only because offensive
coordinators can create designed looks for their playmakers just
as much as defensive coordinators can throw the kitchen sink at
one player to make sure he does not singlehandedly beat them.
However, combined with the knowledge that the Bills are good at
stifling most receivers, it makes sense why Harrison had a slow
day at the office.
While Harrison's upcoming matchup does not project to be as favorable
as McLaurin's, I would feel much more confident in Harrison's
ability to connect on a deep pass with Murray after watching Jameson Williams handily beat Tre'Davious White on a double move last
week. Harrison and Williams are not the same kind of receiver,
but it is not a prerequisite for all vertical threats to run sub-4.4.
Can you sell the route, track the ball and win in contested catch
situations (if necessary)? Harrison can do that just as well -
if not better - than Williams can. Expect Petzing to get his prized
rookie involved early and often in Week 2 against the Rams.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and joined the
Fantasy Points website before the start of the 2024 season. He is
also a highly successful high-stakes player who often appears as
a guest analyst on Sirius XM. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association. Please check out his new podcast with
JJ Wenner called "The All-Out Blitz."