The trade deadline in many leagues is still about a month away,
but fantasy managers should use this time to identify some of the
players who may not be valued the way they should be right now.
My goal for this week is to highlight 10 players (quarterbacks
and running backs) who I believe are not being valued correctly.
After I discuss my stance on the player and some of the numbers
that support my stance, I will use the last paragraph to give
readers an idea of who and/or what they should expect in return.
Because quarterbacks are typically very hard to trade for or
trade away in one-quarterback leagues because managers tend to
believe they can find similar production on the waiver wire, I
will only discuss two "trade for" quarterbacks. At running
back, I will discuss four players I would recommend pursuing and
four others I would consider trading.
Rodgers does not do much to make himself likable. He is also
less than two months away from turning 41 years old. He can still
run a little but nothing close to what he did during his younger
days. I get it.
With that said, he is a quarterback who managed to throw for
two touchdowns in four of his last five games despite facing an
extended stretch of difficult defenses to begin the year. Even
if the Jets did nothing to change the environment for him, he
was probably going to enjoy a game in which he throws for three
or four scores relatively soon. However, New York did not just
tweak the personnel, but it traded for his good friend and old
teammate as well as one of the most productive receivers of his
generation in Davante Adams.
This case for Rodgers is rather simple. He has faced nothing
but defenses ranked inside the top half of the league in limiting
fantasy points to quarterbacks so far and will see two more in
Week 7 (Steelers) and Week 8 (Patriots). After that, all but two
of the teams left on New York's schedule rank in the more favorable
half in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Rodgers was due
to improve on his current QB22 standing (per-game basis) as it
was, but he now has the luxury of doing so with two of the best
receivers in the league. It would be stunning if he fails to bump
up his passing yardage average (231.2) and significantly improve
his touchdown-to-interception ratio (9:5) over the final 10 games
of the fantasy season. Perhaps the only thing that will keep him
from throwing for 30 TDs yet again is a Jets defense that may
limit how often he needs to throw.
The beauty of prioritizing Rodgers is that fantasy managers should
not have to give up much - if anything - to acquire Rodgers in
their leagues. While his ownership rate is at 82 percent on MFL,
it is only at 58 percent on ESPN. Not only would I prefer him
to everyone else ranked immediately below him in points per game
(Trevor Lawrence and Daniel Jones, to name a couple), but I would
have to think long and hard about playing him over Patrick Mahomes
(QB20), Jared Goff (QB11) and Geno Smith (QB10) once Week 9 rolls
around.
Richardson was one of the trendiest picks of the offseason, hyped
up to be one of a select few quarterbacks capable of "breaking
fantasy" if things went right. About that …
The season began as anticipated for last year's No. 4 overall
pick (even if his 9-for-19 passing effort was a bit jarring),
passing for 212 yards and two scores to go along with 56 yards
rushing and another TD in Week 1. Then came the game against the
Packers where Green Bay took the air out of the ball to accommodate
Malik Willis in his first start with the team. Then came another
game against a stout Chicago defense that remains underrated.
Then came the Steelers contest in which he got off to a fast start
before getting hurt and missing the next two games.
Circumstance do not account for everything here though. Richardson
needs to be better. A player of his talent should be able to produce
at a high level almost regardless of the opponent, especially
if he is supported by a capable offensive line and strong running
game - which he has. His biggest issue continues to be a lack
of consistent reps and a lack of experience. The Pittsburgh game
appeared to be the start of things coming together for him against
a high-level defense. Thanks to his oblique injury, any positive
momentum likely needs to be re-established. It is also important
to keep in mind he only has eight NFL starts to his credit - on
top of the 13 he had in college. In other words, he is still a
rookie in terms of experience following a college career in which
he barely had a chance to develop. The injuries have exacerbated
the situation because it seems as though any time he is making
any progress, he keeps getting pushed back to the beginning of
his development. Being unable to stack the gains he made during
one week in practice or one game with another positive week very
often is setting him back, to say the least.
While the schedule does lighten up somewhat for him after Week
7, betting on Richardson is a bet on talent and better injury
luck - not upcoming matchups. That much is not in question. Part
of the early issue this year was Richardson not running nearly
as much as we expected, which came only weeks after HC Shane Steichen
suggested he would be doing the team a disservice by not weaponizing
Richardson's legs despite the inherent injury risk. The Colts
knew the risk in drafting a player like him when they selected
Richardson last season. They decided then that they were willing
to live with his growing pains and a few missed games every year.
As fantasy managers, we have to hope that while Steichen can do
his best to teach Richardson when he needs to protect himself,
Richardson's early injury issues will serve as his best education
in that regard. We have already seen what is possible in the box
score. What Richardson has to see is what is possible when he
takes care of himself.
There is more to think about with Richardson given how much time
he has missed due to injury. Short of viewing him as a QB2 with
massive QB1 upside, managers have to consider how valuable the
roster spot they need to keep open for another quarterback is
- as opposed to stashing a wild card at running back or receiver
such as Sean Tucker or Devaughn Vele.
Even with the disappointing start to the season, there are not
many quarterbacks I want on my roster more than Richardson. Perhaps
it helps to value him in the same way we do Justin Fields, but
only with more injury risk and better job security. The Colts
are too invested in Richardson to bench him for Joe Flacco, so
I do not fear him losing his job. The fear of injury is about
the only thing that is keeping me from saying he should be valued
like a top-five fantasy quarterback, so I would suggest acquiring
him in exchange for the same players discussed above: Patrick
Mahomes, Jared Goff and Geno Smith. Is that a safe statement?
Absolutely not. Ultimately, I think a healthy Richardson matches
or exceeds the fantasy production of C.J. Stroud, Dak Prescott,
Caleb Williams and maybe even Kyler Murray.
There may not be a player (at least not another running back)
I would be willing to deal Walker for straight up right now. That
may sound like a bold statement for someone who has rushed for
131 yards over the last three contests combined following a two-game
absence, but that probably means there is a trade window worth
exploring in your league. He will not likely come cheap, but he
is also not going to command the same haul as it would to acquire
Derrick Henry or Saquon Barkley.
The Seahawks have made it clear they are going to get him the
ball by whatever means necessary. Even in the one game (Week 5)
in which Seattle shockingly gave him only two first-half carries
(and five for the game) - one week after he ran through Detroit's
league-best run defense - he made up the difference by catching
seven of eight targets. He followed that up with another high-volume
effort as a receiver (8-for-8) in Week 6, suggesting the Seahawks
have no issues with him being the two-minute back after it initially
appeared Zach Charbonnet was the first choice in those situations.
Despite missing two games with his oblique injury and losing some
passing-game work to Charbonnet, Walker is tied for fourth among
running backs with 21 catches.
Passing-game upside for a running back is great, but there is
admittedly more that a back needs to do to be an elite fantasy
option. He has handled all but one carry inside the 5 in the four
games he has played (Geno Smith has the other). He leads the league
in missed tackles forced/attempt (0.35). Among running backs with
at least 50 carries, Walker (9.8 percent) trails only Bucky Irving
(10.3) in explosive run rate, which is how often a run goes for
at least 15 yards. He is rushing for a touchdown on 9.8 percent
of his carries, which is easily the best mark in the league among
players with at least 50 carries (David Montgomery ranks second
at 8.0).
Perhaps the best news for Walker's fantasy managers: only three
of Seattle's remaining 10 opponents through the end of the fantasy
playoffs currently rank among the 10 stingiest defenses against
running backs. Then again, it is debatable how important that
is when Walker erupted for 116 total yards and three touchdowns
against the stingiest run defense that he will likely face all
season.
About two weeks ago, I was able to trade away Marvin Harrison
Jr. and Javonte Williams for Walker and Alec Pierce. (It helped
that I already had Justin Jefferson and Malik Nabers on my roster.)
It may take a 2-for-2 (or more) trade to get a deal for Walker
done because he seems to be in his class. Most fantasy managers
will likely not trade Henry or Barkley straight up for him, but
a 1-for-1 with Breece Hall and Kyren Williams does not seem like
enough of a return either.
It has been a nightmare start to the season for Warren. He suffered
a hamstring strain in mid-August that delayed him from being 100
percent for Week 1. He appeared to be on his way with 61 total
yards on 11 touches in Week 2, but a Week 3 knee injury cost him
the next two games. He returned in Week 6 and was stymied by the
same Las Vegas defense that allowed teammate Najee Harris to run
for over 100 yards.
So why do we want Warren? If there was some way to measure the
playing style of the millions of people who play fantasy football,
I think the results would tell us that 90 percent of them suffer
from recency bias and operate reactively instead of proactively.
Nothing Warren has done this season probably warrants a bench
spot - he was dropped in a couple of my leagues - but we are about
two months removed from a time when a large percentage of managers
were willing to draft Warren over Harris. We are less than a year
removed from Warren outscoring Harris in fantasy. Every season
is its own animal, but I don't think the landscape has changed
so much that Warren is virtually useless. It is also not as if
Harris has been all that great himself.
Perhaps now more than ever, the Steelers need more explosive
offensive playmakers if they follow through on starting Russell
Wilson over Justin Fields. Wilson is no longer the kind of player
who can create a ton of magic with his legs and George Pickens
is the team's only true big-play threat. Enter Warren, who should
benefit the most from Wilson's tendency to throw to his running
backs. During his fateful two-year stay in Denver, 236 of Wilson's
869 targeted throws went to running backs. If the resulting 27.2
percent target share seems high for the running back position,
it is because it is about 10 percent higher than normal.
Receiving upside is not the only reason to buy into Warren. The
last time we saw a completely healthy Warren in 2023, he ranked
fourth in the league in explosive run rate at 8.1 percent. That
mark trailed only Jahmyr Gibbs (8.2) and De'Von Achane (12.6)
among running backs with at least 100 carries. In part because
Pittsburgh's offensive line has taken a few hits already this
season, the need for a back who can create his own luck as a runner
and break off a big run has been heightened.
Most of the Warren managers this season who value him are doing
so based on where they drafted him and/or what he did last year.
There is nothing wrong with that, but there is no evidence yet
this year that allows them to ask for anything more than a WR4/5
type or a high-end handcuff back - not even at the level of Tyler
Allgeier, Bucky Irving or Zach Charbonnet. As we know from previous
years, Warren is a very capable flex with occasional RB2 upside.
I would expect that to be the case again this year. I am reasonably
certain I would trade any running back outside the top 40 overall
scorers at his position for him and think long and hard about
a handful of backs inside the top 30, including but not limited
to Rachaad White, Justice Hill and Jerome Ford. I would trade
Zack Moss and/or Alexander Mattison for him as well if I had any
shares. It is not hard to imagine him carving out the same kind
of role Chase Brown has recently, just in a less dynamic offense.
Honorable mention
Josh
Jacobs - Although there have been
some bumps in the road, Jacobs has been every bit the workhorse
his biggest supporters expected. His biggest issues have been
the Packers scoring most of their touchdowns before Jacobs has
a chance to punch it in from a yard or two out. (He has no rush
attempts from the 1 and only two from the 2.) Considering Green
Bay has scored 17 touchdowns and 14 of them have come through
the air, he is due for some positive regression soon. With two
of their next three matchups coming against top-five defenses
against fantasy running backs, the regression may not happen until
after the Week 10 bye. Nevertheless, the Packers are a threat
to score four touchdowns against any opponent. It is only a matter
of time before one or two of those are going to Jacobs almost
every week.
Joe Mixon
- There is a small chance Mixon will be undervalued because
it is only natural for many casual managers to look at a player's
overall fantasy total to determine his value and disregard the
time he was injured, especially the further away the player is
removed from that injury. While the end of the season does not
look all that promising for him, Mixon should be able to carry
his managers to the fantasy postseason if Houston sticks to the
balanced offensive approach it has employed in the two full games
he has been healthy.
For the first four weeks of the season, I was feeling slight
regret about not having any shares of Kamara. After all, he was
a player that I probably had on 30 percent or more of my rosters
last season. The offense - led by new OC Klint Kubiak - was featuring
Kamara as a runner in positive game scripts and relying on him
heavily in negative game scripts. He enters Week 7 as the top-scoring
back in fantasy football.
While the right time to sell shares of Kamara was probably at
the start of October, the situation in New Orleans has deteriorated
in a big way over the last three games. There is also not a lot
of hope things going to go back to the way they were anytime soon.
C Erik McCoy (groin) is expected to be sidelined until November,
Chris Olave just suffered his fourth documented concussion since
October of 2020, Derek Carr (oblique) could be out for another
week or two and Rashid Shaheed (knee) is expected to miss the
rest of the season. While some of those developments should lock
Kamara into a heavy workload each week, there comes a time when
the promise of 20-plus touches does not make up for the fact the
defense knows who it has to stop each week. Furthermore, Kamara
has typically been at his best when he could be used to complement
a grinder like Mark Ingram or Latavius Murray and not have to
do the grinding himself.
Kamara's blistering start likely ensures that his managers will
still get a solid return for him. Perhaps they should wait for
the Saints' Week 9 date against the Panthers before selling. However,
nothing should be assumed for this offense anymore. With three
of the 11 stingiest matchups for fantasy running backs coming
up before the Week 12 bye, there is a possibility Kamara will
considered a RB2 option by the time your league's trade deadline
rolls around. If I were attempting to do a 1-for-1 trade for Kamara,
I would not do so for any back currently ranked inside the top
15 - outside of Chuba Hubbard and Jordan Mason. Conversely, I
doubt the market feels the same pessimism about him right now
that I do, so there is a distinct possibility his fantasy managers
can get someone like David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs or even Kyren
Williams in return.
I sincerely hope Dobbins becomes the first Achilles success story,
if only because it would be a great reward for all the adversity
that he has dealt with and the work he has put into getting back
to the point where he is now. With that said, the advanced analytics
are backing up what his per-game averages are telling us. He has
not cracked four yards per carry since facing the weak run defenses
of the Raiders and Panthers in the first two games of the season.
In Weeks 1-2, Dobbins was breaking off a 15-yard run (or better)
on 14.8 percent of his carries, forcing a missed tackle every
third rush attempt and averaging 6.85 yards before contact. In
the three games since, his explosive run rate is 1.9, his missed
tackle forced rate is 0.13 (about one every eight carries) and
his yards before contact mark is 1.43. While we can chalk some
of that up to better competition, there may be another reason
for his decline: Achilles injuries make it very hard for players
to regain their explosiveness. It would seem that even with the
early bye week, we might have already seen the best of Dobbins.
Even if we do nothing more than attribute Dobbins' decline to
more difficult matchups, there is a small matter of his injury
history pre-Achilles. He played 15 games as a rookie and logged
134 rushing attempts during that 2020 season. Including Week 6,
he has played in 14 games and handled the rock 181 times since.
Instead of trying to preserve him, the Chargers seem to be taking
the opposite approach. Dobbins shattered his previous career high
of 17 carries with 25 rush attempts coming off their bye week.
Perhaps all of the training he did for his Achilles has made him
a better candidate to withstand the rigors of the NFL, but that
is taking a very optimistic view on a situation that has known
nothing but failure.
It is probably too ambitious to expect Dobbins to bring back
someone like Kyren Williams in a trade, but I would much rather
have Josh Jacobs or Aaron Jones moving forward. The possibility
also exists that Dobbins could fetch someone like David Montgomery
- especially if his manager happens to believe Jahmyr Gibbs will
eventually handle more of the backfield work - or Joe Mixon.
Honorable mention
Kyren
Williams - While a player missing
games for injury cannot be assumed just because he does not have
a great track record for staying healthy, Williams has missed
at least five games in each of his first two seasons in the league.
Given the workload that he is handling once again for the Rams,
it feels like it is only a matter of time before he is sidelined.
Feel free to ignore this recommendation if you have Williams and
handcuffed him with Blake Corum.
James
Conner - The message here is similar
to the one with Williams. The major difference is Conner has a
longer injury history. That is the only reason I would be interested
in selling Conner. If you were fortunate enough to draft him as
your RB3, I encourage you to hold instead - especially if you
found a way to cuff him with Trey Benson. He has a great chance
to run roughshod during the fantasy playoffs against the Patriots,
Panthers and Rams. Another major difference between the situations
with Conner and Williams is that Benson is unlikely to be featured
in the same way Corum would be if either starter go down.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and joined the
Fantasy Points website before the start of the 2024 season. He is
also a highly successful high-stakes player who often appears as
a guest analyst on Sirius XM. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association. Please check out his new podcast with
JJ Wenner called "The All-Out Blitz."