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Trade Targets - QBs & RBs



By Doug Orth | 10/18/24 |

The trade deadline in many leagues is still about a month away, but fantasy managers should use this time to identify some of the players who may not be valued the way they should be right now.

My goal for this week is to highlight 10 players (quarterbacks and running backs) who I believe are not being valued correctly. After I discuss my stance on the player and some of the numbers that support my stance, I will use the last paragraph to give readers an idea of who and/or what they should expect in return.

Because quarterbacks are typically very hard to trade for or trade away in one-quarterback leagues because managers tend to believe they can find similar production on the waiver wire, I will only discuss two "trade for" quarterbacks. At running back, I will discuss four players I would recommend pursuing and four others I would consider trading.

Trade For: Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers does not do much to make himself likable. He is also less than two months away from turning 41 years old. He can still run a little but nothing close to what he did during his younger days. I get it.

With that said, he is a quarterback who managed to throw for two touchdowns in four of his last five games despite facing an extended stretch of difficult defenses to begin the year. Even if the Jets did nothing to change the environment for him, he was probably going to enjoy a game in which he throws for three or four scores relatively soon. However, New York did not just tweak the personnel, but it traded for his good friend and old teammate as well as one of the most productive receivers of his generation in Davante Adams.

This case for Rodgers is rather simple. He has faced nothing but defenses ranked inside the top half of the league in limiting fantasy points to quarterbacks so far and will see two more in Week 7 (Steelers) and Week 8 (Patriots). After that, all but two of the teams left on New York's schedule rank in the more favorable half in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Rodgers was due to improve on his current QB22 standing (per-game basis) as it was, but he now has the luxury of doing so with two of the best receivers in the league. It would be stunning if he fails to bump up his passing yardage average (231.2) and significantly improve his touchdown-to-interception ratio (9:5) over the final 10 games of the fantasy season. Perhaps the only thing that will keep him from throwing for 30 TDs yet again is a Jets defense that may limit how often he needs to throw.

The beauty of prioritizing Rodgers is that fantasy managers should not have to give up much - if anything - to acquire Rodgers in their leagues. While his ownership rate is at 82 percent on MFL, it is only at 58 percent on ESPN. Not only would I prefer him to everyone else ranked immediately below him in points per game (Trevor Lawrence and Daniel Jones, to name a couple), but I would have to think long and hard about playing him over Patrick Mahomes (QB20), Jared Goff (QB11) and Geno Smith (QB10) once Week 9 rolls around.

Anthony Richardson

Trade For: Anthony Richardson

Richardson was one of the trendiest picks of the offseason, hyped up to be one of a select few quarterbacks capable of "breaking fantasy" if things went right. About that …

The season began as anticipated for last year's No. 4 overall pick (even if his 9-for-19 passing effort was a bit jarring), passing for 212 yards and two scores to go along with 56 yards rushing and another TD in Week 1. Then came the game against the Packers where Green Bay took the air out of the ball to accommodate Malik Willis in his first start with the team. Then came another game against a stout Chicago defense that remains underrated. Then came the Steelers contest in which he got off to a fast start before getting hurt and missing the next two games.

Circumstance do not account for everything here though. Richardson needs to be better. A player of his talent should be able to produce at a high level almost regardless of the opponent, especially if he is supported by a capable offensive line and strong running game - which he has. His biggest issue continues to be a lack of consistent reps and a lack of experience. The Pittsburgh game appeared to be the start of things coming together for him against a high-level defense. Thanks to his oblique injury, any positive momentum likely needs to be re-established. It is also important to keep in mind he only has eight NFL starts to his credit - on top of the 13 he had in college. In other words, he is still a rookie in terms of experience following a college career in which he barely had a chance to develop. The injuries have exacerbated the situation because it seems as though any time he is making any progress, he keeps getting pushed back to the beginning of his development. Being unable to stack the gains he made during one week in practice or one game with another positive week very often is setting him back, to say the least.

While the schedule does lighten up somewhat for him after Week 7, betting on Richardson is a bet on talent and better injury luck - not upcoming matchups. That much is not in question. Part of the early issue this year was Richardson not running nearly as much as we expected, which came only weeks after HC Shane Steichen suggested he would be doing the team a disservice by not weaponizing Richardson's legs despite the inherent injury risk. The Colts knew the risk in drafting a player like him when they selected Richardson last season. They decided then that they were willing to live with his growing pains and a few missed games every year. As fantasy managers, we have to hope that while Steichen can do his best to teach Richardson when he needs to protect himself, Richardson's early injury issues will serve as his best education in that regard. We have already seen what is possible in the box score. What Richardson has to see is what is possible when he takes care of himself.

There is more to think about with Richardson given how much time he has missed due to injury. Short of viewing him as a QB2 with massive QB1 upside, managers have to consider how valuable the roster spot they need to keep open for another quarterback is - as opposed to stashing a wild card at running back or receiver such as Sean Tucker or Devaughn Vele.

Even with the disappointing start to the season, there are not many quarterbacks I want on my roster more than Richardson. Perhaps it helps to value him in the same way we do Justin Fields, but only with more injury risk and better job security. The Colts are too invested in Richardson to bench him for Joe Flacco, so I do not fear him losing his job. The fear of injury is about the only thing that is keeping me from saying he should be valued like a top-five fantasy quarterback, so I would suggest acquiring him in exchange for the same players discussed above: Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff and Geno Smith. Is that a safe statement? Absolutely not. Ultimately, I think a healthy Richardson matches or exceeds the fantasy production of C.J. Stroud, Dak Prescott, Caleb Williams and maybe even Kyler Murray.

Trade For: Kenneth Walker

There may not be a player (at least not another running back) I would be willing to deal Walker for straight up right now. That may sound like a bold statement for someone who has rushed for 131 yards over the last three contests combined following a two-game absence, but that probably means there is a trade window worth exploring in your league. He will not likely come cheap, but he is also not going to command the same haul as it would to acquire Derrick Henry or Saquon Barkley.

The Seahawks have made it clear they are going to get him the ball by whatever means necessary. Even in the one game (Week 5) in which Seattle shockingly gave him only two first-half carries (and five for the game) - one week after he ran through Detroit's league-best run defense - he made up the difference by catching seven of eight targets. He followed that up with another high-volume effort as a receiver (8-for-8) in Week 6, suggesting the Seahawks have no issues with him being the two-minute back after it initially appeared Zach Charbonnet was the first choice in those situations. Despite missing two games with his oblique injury and losing some passing-game work to Charbonnet, Walker is tied for fourth among running backs with 21 catches.

Passing-game upside for a running back is great, but there is admittedly more that a back needs to do to be an elite fantasy option. He has handled all but one carry inside the 5 in the four games he has played (Geno Smith has the other). He leads the league in missed tackles forced/attempt (0.35). Among running backs with at least 50 carries, Walker (9.8 percent) trails only Bucky Irving (10.3) in explosive run rate, which is how often a run goes for at least 15 yards. He is rushing for a touchdown on 9.8 percent of his carries, which is easily the best mark in the league among players with at least 50 carries (David Montgomery ranks second at 8.0).

Perhaps the best news for Walker's fantasy managers: only three of Seattle's remaining 10 opponents through the end of the fantasy playoffs currently rank among the 10 stingiest defenses against running backs. Then again, it is debatable how important that is when Walker erupted for 116 total yards and three touchdowns against the stingiest run defense that he will likely face all season.

About two weeks ago, I was able to trade away Marvin Harrison Jr. and Javonte Williams for Walker and Alec Pierce. (It helped that I already had Justin Jefferson and Malik Nabers on my roster.) It may take a 2-for-2 (or more) trade to get a deal for Walker done because he seems to be in his class. Most fantasy managers will likely not trade Henry or Barkley straight up for him, but a 1-for-1 with Breece Hall and Kyren Williams does not seem like enough of a return either.

Trade For: Jaylen Warren

It has been a nightmare start to the season for Warren. He suffered a hamstring strain in mid-August that delayed him from being 100 percent for Week 1. He appeared to be on his way with 61 total yards on 11 touches in Week 2, but a Week 3 knee injury cost him the next two games. He returned in Week 6 and was stymied by the same Las Vegas defense that allowed teammate Najee Harris to run for over 100 yards.

So why do we want Warren? If there was some way to measure the playing style of the millions of people who play fantasy football, I think the results would tell us that 90 percent of them suffer from recency bias and operate reactively instead of proactively. Nothing Warren has done this season probably warrants a bench spot - he was dropped in a couple of my leagues - but we are about two months removed from a time when a large percentage of managers were willing to draft Warren over Harris. We are less than a year removed from Warren outscoring Harris in fantasy. Every season is its own animal, but I don't think the landscape has changed so much that Warren is virtually useless. It is also not as if Harris has been all that great himself.

Perhaps now more than ever, the Steelers need more explosive offensive playmakers if they follow through on starting Russell Wilson over Justin Fields. Wilson is no longer the kind of player who can create a ton of magic with his legs and George Pickens is the team's only true big-play threat. Enter Warren, who should benefit the most from Wilson's tendency to throw to his running backs. During his fateful two-year stay in Denver, 236 of Wilson's 869 targeted throws went to running backs. If the resulting 27.2 percent target share seems high for the running back position, it is because it is about 10 percent higher than normal.

Receiving upside is not the only reason to buy into Warren. The last time we saw a completely healthy Warren in 2023, he ranked fourth in the league in explosive run rate at 8.1 percent. That mark trailed only Jahmyr Gibbs (8.2) and De'Von Achane (12.6) among running backs with at least 100 carries. In part because Pittsburgh's offensive line has taken a few hits already this season, the need for a back who can create his own luck as a runner and break off a big run has been heightened.

Most of the Warren managers this season who value him are doing so based on where they drafted him and/or what he did last year. There is nothing wrong with that, but there is no evidence yet this year that allows them to ask for anything more than a WR4/5 type or a high-end handcuff back - not even at the level of Tyler Allgeier, Bucky Irving or Zach Charbonnet. As we know from previous years, Warren is a very capable flex with occasional RB2 upside. I would expect that to be the case again this year. I am reasonably certain I would trade any running back outside the top 40 overall scorers at his position for him and think long and hard about a handful of backs inside the top 30, including but not limited to Rachaad White, Justice Hill and Jerome Ford. I would trade Zack Moss and/or Alexander Mattison for him as well if I had any shares. It is not hard to imagine him carving out the same kind of role Chase Brown has recently, just in a less dynamic offense.

Honorable mention

Josh Jacobs - Although there have been some bumps in the road, Jacobs has been every bit the workhorse his biggest supporters expected. His biggest issues have been the Packers scoring most of their touchdowns before Jacobs has a chance to punch it in from a yard or two out. (He has no rush attempts from the 1 and only two from the 2.) Considering Green Bay has scored 17 touchdowns and 14 of them have come through the air, he is due for some positive regression soon. With two of their next three matchups coming against top-five defenses against fantasy running backs, the regression may not happen until after the Week 10 bye. Nevertheless, the Packers are a threat to score four touchdowns against any opponent. It is only a matter of time before one or two of those are going to Jacobs almost every week.

Joe Mixon - There is a small chance Mixon will be undervalued because it is only natural for many casual managers to look at a player's overall fantasy total to determine his value and disregard the time he was injured, especially the further away the player is removed from that injury. While the end of the season does not look all that promising for him, Mixon should be able to carry his managers to the fantasy postseason if Houston sticks to the balanced offensive approach it has employed in the two full games he has been healthy.

Trade Away: Alvin Kamara

For the first four weeks of the season, I was feeling slight regret about not having any shares of Kamara. After all, he was a player that I probably had on 30 percent or more of my rosters last season. The offense - led by new OC Klint Kubiak - was featuring Kamara as a runner in positive game scripts and relying on him heavily in negative game scripts. He enters Week 7 as the top-scoring back in fantasy football.

While the right time to sell shares of Kamara was probably at the start of October, the situation in New Orleans has deteriorated in a big way over the last three games. There is also not a lot of hope things going to go back to the way they were anytime soon. C Erik McCoy (groin) is expected to be sidelined until November, Chris Olave just suffered his fourth documented concussion since October of 2020, Derek Carr (oblique) could be out for another week or two and Rashid Shaheed (knee) is expected to miss the rest of the season. While some of those developments should lock Kamara into a heavy workload each week, there comes a time when the promise of 20-plus touches does not make up for the fact the defense knows who it has to stop each week. Furthermore, Kamara has typically been at his best when he could be used to complement a grinder like Mark Ingram or Latavius Murray and not have to do the grinding himself.

Kamara's blistering start likely ensures that his managers will still get a solid return for him. Perhaps they should wait for the Saints' Week 9 date against the Panthers before selling. However, nothing should be assumed for this offense anymore. With three of the 11 stingiest matchups for fantasy running backs coming up before the Week 12 bye, there is a possibility Kamara will considered a RB2 option by the time your league's trade deadline rolls around. If I were attempting to do a 1-for-1 trade for Kamara, I would not do so for any back currently ranked inside the top 15 - outside of Chuba Hubbard and Jordan Mason. Conversely, I doubt the market feels the same pessimism about him right now that I do, so there is a distinct possibility his fantasy managers can get someone like David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs or even Kyren Williams in return.

Trade Away: J.K. Dobbins

I sincerely hope Dobbins becomes the first Achilles success story, if only because it would be a great reward for all the adversity that he has dealt with and the work he has put into getting back to the point where he is now. With that said, the advanced analytics are backing up what his per-game averages are telling us. He has not cracked four yards per carry since facing the weak run defenses of the Raiders and Panthers in the first two games of the season. In Weeks 1-2, Dobbins was breaking off a 15-yard run (or better) on 14.8 percent of his carries, forcing a missed tackle every third rush attempt and averaging 6.85 yards before contact. In the three games since, his explosive run rate is 1.9, his missed tackle forced rate is 0.13 (about one every eight carries) and his yards before contact mark is 1.43. While we can chalk some of that up to better competition, there may be another reason for his decline: Achilles injuries make it very hard for players to regain their explosiveness. It would seem that even with the early bye week, we might have already seen the best of Dobbins.

Even if we do nothing more than attribute Dobbins' decline to more difficult matchups, there is a small matter of his injury history pre-Achilles. He played 15 games as a rookie and logged 134 rushing attempts during that 2020 season. Including Week 6, he has played in 14 games and handled the rock 181 times since. Instead of trying to preserve him, the Chargers seem to be taking the opposite approach. Dobbins shattered his previous career high of 17 carries with 25 rush attempts coming off their bye week. Perhaps all of the training he did for his Achilles has made him a better candidate to withstand the rigors of the NFL, but that is taking a very optimistic view on a situation that has known nothing but failure.

It is probably too ambitious to expect Dobbins to bring back someone like Kyren Williams in a trade, but I would much rather have Josh Jacobs or Aaron Jones moving forward. The possibility also exists that Dobbins could fetch someone like David Montgomery - especially if his manager happens to believe Jahmyr Gibbs will eventually handle more of the backfield work - or Joe Mixon.

Honorable mention

Kyren Williams - While a player missing games for injury cannot be assumed just because he does not have a great track record for staying healthy, Williams has missed at least five games in each of his first two seasons in the league. Given the workload that he is handling once again for the Rams, it feels like it is only a matter of time before he is sidelined. Feel free to ignore this recommendation if you have Williams and handcuffed him with Blake Corum.

James Conner - The message here is similar to the one with Williams. The major difference is Conner has a longer injury history. That is the only reason I would be interested in selling Conner. If you were fortunate enough to draft him as your RB3, I encourage you to hold instead - especially if you found a way to cuff him with Trey Benson. He has a great chance to run roughshod during the fantasy playoffs against the Patriots, Panthers and Rams. Another major difference between the situations with Conner and Williams is that Benson is unlikely to be featured in the same way Corum would be if either starter go down.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points website before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on Sirius XM. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Please check out his new podcast with JJ Wenner called "The All-Out Blitz."