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Steve Schwarz | Archive | Email |  
Staff Writer


Preseason to Nowhere
8/18/16


The NFL exhibition season is in full swing and you are, and will be, bombarded with information and statistics from the games. Ignore all of it.

OK, maybe not 100 percent … ignore 99 percent.

Pay attention to injuries. It’s just about the only thing that really matters. Touchdown passes, rushing yards, 100-yard receiving games … they mean almost nothing. You are not likely to find a “diamond in the rough.” The late-round draft choice that astounds the team and media in May OTAs, then goes on to produce great fantasy numbers is just that … a fantasy.

I researched the top producers during the last six preseasons (2010-15) and of the top-five passers, rushers and receivers (a total of 90 players), only 12 of them (13.3%) were “start-worthy” during that regular season. (For me start-worthy equals a top-12 fantasy passer or tight end and a top-24 runner or receiver).

But even those numbers lie.

Of the two quarterbacks who made the list, both were veterans; Tom Brady in 2010 and Matt Ryan in 2012. Certainly no new findings there.

Alfred Morris

Alfred Morris flashed in 2010 when his 5.0 ypc during preseason games translated into fantasy success.


There were four running backs who made the list, but only Alfred Morris, a sixth round selection and Andre Williams, a fourth-rounder, could be considered “discoveries.” Ryan Mathews was a first-round pick in his second season and Ronnie Hillman was in his fourth year as a pro.

The five receivers who were start-worthy, included; veterans Larry Fitzgerald, Josh Gordon, Julio Jones and Vincent Jackson. No headline story to astound your friends among those four. Future superstar Antonio Brown, however, was an undiscovered nugget who shone brightly in the 2011 preseason after posting just 16 catches for 167 yards the previous year.

The one tight end to meet our requirements was the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce, a third-round pick out of Cincinnati, so he qualifies as a discovery.

That makes a total of just four fantasy-worthy starters who made their first appearances during the exhibition season. Four of 90 or 4.4 percent.

While it is slightly possible that you could outsmart your competition, who is “foolishly” enjoying the end of the summer at the beach, it’s certainly not probable that all your preseason fantasy analysis of game statistics will pay off.

The good news for you, however, is that I’ve already assembled the best of the “long-shot” rookies who might help you this season (Ezekiel Elliott and all other first-round selections aren’t a long shot) … so go spend the next three weeks on vacation and don’t worry about a thing.

1) Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati (selected 55th overall) - As with most rookies, opportunity is the key and Boyd fell into a huge opening when both Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu left town. He’ll be the No. 2 guy behind five-time Pro Bowler A.J. Green, but that’s not a bad thing as the secondary will always be doubling/leaning toward the big man. Boyd should be a possession receiver, who will accumulate catches and yards, and at least early in the season before tight end Tyler Eifert returns from ankle surgery, will have a chance to score too.

2) Devontae Booker, RB, Denver (136th overall) – Booker (if he can learn to pass block) should be the No. 2 back ahead of Ronnie Hillman and behind starter C.J. Anderson when the whistle blows for real. Considering that Anderson has never carried the ball more than 179 times in three NFL seasons or two seasons at California, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Anderson is a 350-plus touch workhorse. That leaves plenty of opportunity for Booker to shine.

3) Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans (47th overall) – I expect Thomas to start opposite Brandin Cooks and once Brees gets confidence in a receiver they see plenty of targets. He’s a big wideout in the Marques Colston mold and we know how well the Brees-to-Colston pairing worked. The Saints threw the ball 663 times last season and there is no reason to think it will be any less in 2016 and that’s great news for any talented receiver.

4) Kenneth Dixon, RB, Baltimore (134th overall) – The Ravens’ backfield appears to be a muddled mess. Justin Forsett should be No. 1, but the veteran really only has one good fantasy year (2014) on his resume in eight seasons. Dixon will also have to get past Terrance West, who is having a good camp and Javorius Allen, but long-term, the rookie might be the team’s best option. He’s likely to have little first-half value, but could come on strong around the fantasy playoffs.

 Pre-Season Stat Leaders - 2015
QBs In-Season
Rank
RBs In-Season
Rank
WRs In-Season
Rank
Landry Jones 48 Zach Zenner 131 Rashad Ross 120
Brett Hundley x Jarryd Hayne 128 Seth Roberts 56
Ryan Nassib 60 Thomas Rawls 26 Martavis Bryant 32
Jimmy Garopollo 74 Ronnie Hillman 20 Matt Hazel 199
Taylor Heinke x Zac Stacy 104 James Jones 27

 Pre-Season Stat Leaders - 2014
QBs In-Season
Rank
RBs In-Season
Rank
WRs In-Season
Rank
Zach Mettenberger 38 Lorenzo Taliaferro 53 Allen Hurns 44
Jimmy Garopollo 54 Henry Josey x Justin Hunter 67
Ryan Nassib 65 Joe Banyard 107 Brice Butler 96
Austin Davis 30 Rashad Jennings 29 Robert Woods 48
Ryan Griffin x Andre Williams 21 Travis Kelce 8

 Pre-Season Stat Leaders - 2013
QBs In-Season
Rank
RBs In-Season
Rank
WRs In-Season
Rank
Pat Devlin x Khiry Robinson 80 Marcus Easley 164
Case Keenum 34 Jordan Todman 59 Ted Ginn 53
Matt Simms 51 Joseph Randle 75 Ladarius Green 30
Dominique Davis 61 Christine Michael 113 Charles Hawkins x
Ryan Mallett x David Wilson 93 Josh Gordon 1

 Pre-Season Stat Leaders - 2012
QBs In-Season
Rank
RBs In-Season
Rank
WRs In-Season
Rank
Kirk Cousins 39 William Powell x Travaris Cadet 129
Nick Foles 34 Rashad Jennings 61 Julio Jones 9
Matt Ryan 5 Nate Eachus x Antonio Brown 37
Chase Daniel 60 Alfred Morris 5 Damaris Johnson 113
Ryan Lindley 40 Justin Forsett 64 Joseph Morgan 77

 Pre-Season Stat Leaders - 2011
QBs In-Season
Rank
RBs In-Season
Rank
WRs In-Season
Rank
Stephen McGee 54 Kendall Hunter 47 Antonio Brown 24
Richard Bartell 60 Da'Rel Scott 138 Taj Smith x
Chase Daniel 70 Armond Smith 160 Matthew Slater 153
Chad Henne 38 Ryan Mathews 7 Larry Fitzgerald 5
Matt Moore 23 Jonathan Dwyer 108 Vincent Jackson 10

 Pre-Season Stat Leaders - 2010
QBs In-Season
Rank
RBs In-Season
Rank
WRs In-Season
Rank
Charlie Whitehurst 46 Anthony Dixon 71 Victor Cruz 187
Matt Flynn 50 Michael Bennett 136 Matt Willis 170
Stephen McGee 53 Cedric Peerman 144 Adrian Arrington 150
Luke McCown 64 Jon Dwyer 130 Max Komar 141
Tom Brady 6 Jackie Battle 102 Deon Butler 73


Steve Schwarz served as the fantasy sports editor of The Sports Network and is the 2014 FSWA Football Writer of the Year.