It’s Week 3-of-17 and patterns are starting to form. It’s
imperative that you recognize the changes from preseason expectations
and adjust to what you are seeing on the field. The faster you recognize
these tendencies the faster you can exploit them before your other
“If you would be a real seeker after truth,
it is necessary that at least once in your life you doubt, as
far as possible, all things.” – Rene Descartes
1) Three of the top-nine fantasy quarterbacks to date are running
quarterbacks with 100+ rushing yards.
Expected runners Lamar Jackson (31.5) and Jalen Hurts (27.6)
are joined unexpectedly with the New York Giants’ Daniel Jones (29.0). And all three have what should be great matchups
in Week 3; Jackson sees Detroit, Jones hosts Atlanta and Hurts
travels to Dallas to face the Cowboys. All are bottom-11 defenses.
2) Mac Jones may be the future for the New England Patriots,
but he is not fantasy-worthy at this time.
True. He’s not a runner (zero attempts) and he’s not throwing
the ball deep down the field. The result is he’s averaging just
9.1 yards-per-completion and has one touchdown pass. By comparison,
is averaging 13.8 yards-per-completion on one less catch and even
11.7 is well ahead of Mac
Jones. Only 31 of Jones’ passes are to wide receivers with
18 to running backs and 17 to tight ends. His 13.7 FPts/G ranks
30th among all quarterbacks.
3) Damien Harris should have been better in a 25-6 domination
of the New York Jets.
Fact. You would have thought that Harris would have been running
the ball down the Jets throat in the second half, but he actually
saw nine less touches in Game 2 than in an opening season loss
to Miami. It should concern those who have Harris on their roster
that backup/third-down back James White has seen 11 touches in
each game. And at some point, explosive rookie Rhamondre Stevenson
will see part of the workload (when Bill Belichick lets him out
of the doghouse for his Game 1 fumble) and it will likely come
from Harris’ assignments.
4) Now would be a good time to “buy low” on running back James
Sure, the Jaguars have a new quarterback and a completely new
coaching staff, but after a scare in the season opener, things
returned to normal for Robinson in Week 2. Robinson was the primary
running back in Week 2 out-touching Carlos Hyde 14-2 after both
saw 11 touches in the opener. Buy now before he becomes the back
who averaged 17.9 FPts/G a season ago (or at least something close
to that level).
5) The top-10 receiver no one expected through two games is
Sterling Shepard (No. 9 averaging 20.9 FPts/G).
True and it might be a great time to “sell high,” but not until
after Week 3 when you can reap the benefits of another very good
matchup against a weak Falcons’ pass defense. Shepard is “on pace”
for 161 targets despite the team bringing in a “big-time” receiver
in Kenny Golladay.
At some point Golladay will take over as WR1 and Shepard along
Slayton and rookie Kadarius
Toney will play second fiddle. Hope for another big game against
Atlanta and then sell, sell, sell.
“I do not mind lying, but I hate inaccuracy.” –
1) Darrell Henderson’s is currently a top-10 running back
and is likely to stay there throughout the season.
False. Yes he’s currently ranked No. 10 (16.5 FPts/G),
but we saw in Week 2 the “Michel Effect” come to bear.
In Week 1 Henderson was on the field for 49-of-52 snaps (94%),
but after a week more of playbook study by Michel that fell to
68% (40-of-59). Henderson handled 18 touches and Michel 10 vs.
17-1 in the season opener. This feels like it’s going to
be a 65-35 split if both stay healthy – but advantage still
to Henderson as the better receiver.
2) You can start Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts every week this
I’m going to have to say no. There appears to be a pattern
in his six starts (Yes, I know, small sample size but it’s
what we have to go on). He plays well against mediocre and bad defenses
and average against top-10 defenses. That’s not unexpected
and the predictability is actually very good for fantasy owners.
That’s an average of 21.9 FPts/G against top-10 and 33.5 against
the bottom 22. Monday night’s opponent, Dallas, is No. 27,
then Chiefs are No.24, but avoid the Panthers at No.7. Predictability
in an unpredictable world is the ultimate gift … the brass
Jalen Hurts vs. Defense
QB Pts Allowed Rk
3) Teddy Bridgewater is just a game manager.
Not in 2021. In the first two games this season he’s thrown
for more than 260 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions
and he’s ranked No. 13 averaging 23.8 FPts/G. You know how
many times he did that in all of 2020? Twice. In his 51-start
career he’s done it just six times. He’s getting better,
he’s looking more often down field (career-high 9.6 yards-per-attempt)
and gets an injury-riddles Jets this Sunday in the Broncos’
4) Najee Harris will play up to his draft position.
I’d like to believe it, but my “eight ball”
says all indications are no. He’s getting all of the workload,
but he’s averaging just 3.2 ypc because the inferior offensive
line in front of him isn’t opening any holes. Last season
the Steelers as a team averaged 3.6 ypc and starter James Conner
managed 4.3 ypc. The rebuilt line includes two rookies, one second-year
player and a second-year starter. “Development is that,
its development,” said Tomlin this week. “It doesn’t
happen in an instant. It doesn’t happen overnight.”
Sorry, but fantasy owners have trouble with patience from a high-round
draft pick particularly when it might not be until 2022 when the
rookie blossoms into a stud back.
5) Ezekiel Elliott is still a first-round fantasy workhorse.
Oh, if only that were true. He’s not even the most explosive
back on his team. Tony Pollard is averaging 15.7 FPts/G on 23
touches (1.36 FPts/touch) while Zeke is averaging 11.8 on 31 touches
(.76 FPts/touch). Elliott will continue to be the Cowboys starter,
but this is looking like a 60-40 split with Dallas management
saying they are just trying to conserve Elliott for later in the
season all the while enjoying the backup’s production and
not planning any late-season adjustments.