If you are still alive and reading this then congratulations on
reaching the championship game. My best advice, barring injuries,
is “dance with the ones that brought you.”
“If the truth doesn’t save us, what does that
say about us?” – Lois McMaster Bujold
1) If you lost your semi-final matchup with this as your lineup:
Justin Fields, Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson, Davante Adams,
DeAndre Hopkins and Mark Andrews, you aren’t alone.
In fact, you might have been beaten by Cam Akers almost all by
himself. Or CeeDee Lamb and Nathan Peterman. All I’m trying
to say is that curious things can happen to the best lineups and
the most talented team doesn’t always win. Fantasy sports
is a matter of research/drafting/avoiding injuries… and
luck. It’s always been that way in “one-and-done”
tournaments and always will be.
Week 16 Lineups
2) My sympathy to those who started Jalen Hurts all season,
but didn’t have him available for the second round of the
True. In fact, while for the entire season, Hurts, Josh
Allen and Patrick
Mahomes were all very close in fantasy points per game (all
just over 29 FPts/G), since Week 12 Hurts had far out-performed
Allen and Mahomes. Hurts produced at a 35.5 FPts/G rate over that
span versus 28.7 for Allen and 27.0 for Mahomes.
3) The most disappointing fantasy playoff player has to be Las
Vegas wideout Davante Adams.
True. After producing 19.9 fantasy points per game for the first
13 games this season, his first with the Raiders, he managed just
10.3 fantasy points combined in the first two rounds of the fantasy
playoffs. With Derek Carr seemingly on the way out of town after
this season, the perfect quarterback for Davante would be a reunion
with his old friend Aaron Rodgers. The Packers should be ready
to start Jordan Love, but a $40 million dead salary cap hit for
Green Bay might be a sticking point. However, a trade after June
1, 2023 would lower that number to a manageable $15 million. Expect
4) Just when fantasy owners were beginning to “trust” Josh Jacobs
he let them down.
Unfortunately true. Jacobs produced 11 touchdowns (all on the
ground) in the first 13 games, but none in the last two weeks.
His 44 rushing yards against the Steelers was his second-lowest
total of the season after six 100+ yard days. I’m sure the
obscene weather had something to do with it, as the “indoor”
Raiders had to play in minus wind chill, but it appeared to me,
and Jacobs, that some on his team weren’t giving it their
all. Expect the free agent Jacobs to be on a different team in
5) I have a friend who frequently tells me that veteran players
almost always return to their historic production level by the
end of the season.
He uses this to trade for veteran players, particularly high-quality
ones, who struggled to begin the season. CeeDee Lamb is a perfect
example of this strategy being rewarded. Through the first seven
games of the season Lamb produced 479 yards, two touchdowns and
averaged 14.0 FPts/G. My friend traded for him in Week 9 during
the Cowboys’ bye week at a discounted price and since Week
10 Lamb has posted 728 yards, six touchdowns and averaged 20.8
FPts/G for eight games.
“Repetition does not transform a lie into the truth.”
Franklin D. Roosevelt
1) Justin Jefferson should be the league MVP.
Sorry no. The list of those starting to say this, including JJ
himself, is growing longer but they are all wrong. If Cooper Kupp
(145-1,947-16), Calvin Johnson (122-1,964-5 in 2012) and Randy
Moss (98-1,493-23 in 2007) couldn’t win for their extraordinary
seasons, there isn’t a chance Jefferson (123-1,756-8 thru
Week 16) wins in 2022. It’s a quarterback award anyway.
The last non-QB to grab the trophy was Adrian Peterson in 2012.
A wideout has never won this award since it was first given out
2) Jerick McKinnon can continue to play at the level he’s produced
since Week 13.
Unlikely. McKinnon is in a shared situation with rookie Isiah Pacheco, who does most of the running while McKinnon gets the
receiving workload. But McKinnon has averaged 22.9 FPts/G since
Week 13 because he’s found the end zone six times in four
games. That’s a lofty level for a back who averaged just
12.3 touches. You can’t take him out of the lineup for your
championship matchup, but he’s not likely to repeat his
last game against Denver (32.4 points). The Broncos’ defense
has given up just two RB receiving touchdowns all season (both
to McKinnon in Week 14).
3) Kareem Hunt still has fantasy value.
False. Hunt has been horrible all season, producing just three
double-digit games (none since Week 8) and producing 5.5 FPts/G
less than 2021 (13.5 to 8.0). He used to be a touchdown-maker
averaging .67 touchdowns per game in 2020-21, but has just four
touchdowns in 15 game this season (none since Week 7). His rushing
average is down from 4.9 to 3.9 ypc and his yards per reception
is also down (7.9 to 6.3). Nick Chubb has seen a much greater
portion of the workload in 2022. Hunt will be an unrestricted
free agent after this season ends and I’d expect him to
4) There is still a place for James Robinson with the Jets.
Sorry no. Robinson has no future in New York with the Jets (just
like quarterback Zach Wilson), who have Breece Hall, Michael Carter
and Zonovan Knight on their roster. Robinson has talent, but his
landing spot will have to be the right situation to be fantasy-worthy
in 2023. As a rookie he surprisingly produced 17.9 FPts/G, then
just 12.7 last season with the Jaguars. Robinson will be a restricted
free agent after the season, but probably can be had for a third-day
5) Tua Tagovailoa should play football again this season.
False. One has to be scared for Tua’s playing career after
suffering what was probably his third concussion of the 2022 season.
He needs to think about his life, not just his football life.
No one wants to live the next 50+ years with brain fog or worse.
As for Dolphins fans, I’m sure there are plenty of high
quality free agent quarterbacks and draft-eligible rookies quarterbacks
who would love to throw to Tyreek Hill (113-1,632-7) and Jaylen Waddle (67-1,260-8).