In the third part of our series, we investigate which rookie tight
ends might have first-year meaningful fantasy value.
Analyzing the past three seasons, we found that to be start-worthy
at the tight end position (a top-10 value), you must produce 10.4
fantasy points in a game.
Only two rookies over the past three seasons have averaged that
mark – Kyle Pitts in 2021 and Sam LaPorta last season.
Additionally, if the rookie tight end wasn’t drafted in
the first two rounds, the odds are very much against them producing
start-worthy games (a.k.a. SWG). Players drafted in the first
two rounds produced 38 “SWG” in 123 games (30.9%)
while anyone drafted from round 3 and later had just a 12.2% chance
of producing a start-worthy game. That’s about the team’s
larger investment in a player helping determine his chances to
get on the field.
It likely means the list of fantasy-worthy first-year tight ends
will be short. There were only two tight ends drafted in the first
couple of rounds, Brock Bowers by Las Vegas and Ben Sinnott by
Washington.
NFL offensive coordinators have been salivating over Bowers since
he showed out as a freshman at Georgia (56-882-13). He spent two
more seasons in college forcing opposing defenses to focus on
him making it easy for the rest of the Bulldog offense while still
averaging 896 yards from scrimmage and 8.5 touchdowns. His landing
spot, in Las Vegas, might have been one of the worst places for
his immediate fantasy value. Bowers’ quarterback options are journeyman
Gardner Minshew or inconsistent youngster Aidan O’Connell. The
Raiders also already had a young tight end in Michael Mayer (27-304-2
for 12 games in 2023). Fortunately, Bowers, at 6-3, 245 lbs.,
is still fast enough to be split out like a wideout and has Davante
Adams distracting opposing defenses. On another team Bowers could
have been a “Sam LaPorta,” but in Las Vegas he’ll likely put up
respectable, but not quite top-10 fantasy statistics. Think Dalton
Kincaid last season.
Ben Sinnott arrived at Kansas State as a fullback and shifted
to tight end for his final two seasons. He put up respectable,
but not great numbers, his final year (49-676-6). Unfortunately,
he won’t begin the season as the starter at tight end. The Commanders
signed veteran Zach Ertz. Sinnott will learn a lot from Ertz and
by the second half of the season should take over the spot and
grow with his rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. I don’t expect
Sinnott to have fantasy value until near the fantasy playoffs,
if at all, this season. He’s a last-round stash, at best, in redraft
leagues.
Ja’Tavion Sanders has all the tools to be a big-time producer
in the NFL. He’s got size (6-4, 256 lbs.). He has decent speed
and excellent hands. He caught 99 balls for 1,295 yards and seven
touchdowns over his final two seasons. That’s very good on a team
with wideout options Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell. He should
easily beat out incumbent Tommy Tremble. Sanders’ fantasy value
will depend on how quickly second-year quarterback Bryce Young
progresses from an ugly first season. If you see Young thrive
early on this season, be prepared to pick up Sanders.
Johnson will move up on the depth charts with the retirement
of Darren Waller. That means he has just one man to beat out,
Daniel Bellinger, for playing time and targets. Penn State tight
ends, like Iowa, have a history of success in the NFL so taking
a leap of faith late in your draft might be an option. He was
only modestly productive last season (34-341-7) but did get plenty
of red zone usage.
The remainder of the rookie tight ends appear to be buried on
depth charts with little chance to produce in season one barring
injuries.
Tip Reiman, Arizona – (behind Trey McBride) Erick All, Cincinnati – (Mike Gesicki, Drew Sample and Tanner
Hudson) AJ Barner, Seattle – (Noah Fant, Pharaoh Brown) Cade Stover, Houston – (Dalton Schultz, Brevin Jordan) Jared Wiley, Kansas City – (Travis Kelce, Noah Gray) Tanner McLachlan, Cincinnati (Mike Gesicki, Drew Sample and Tanner
Hudson) Jaheim Bell, New England – (Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper
and Mitchell Wilcox) Devin Culp – Tampa Bay (Cade Otton, Ko Kieft and Payne Durham)
