I have compared the preseason draft rankings and the post-season finishes by position (based on total fantasy points earned). The idea of this exercise is to determine the primary reason for large variances in our expectations and a player’s 2025 production and whether it can help our expectations for 2026.

Looking at many of the results, I’ve divided each position category based on four conclusions:

1) WILL REBOUND: Underachieved expectations primarily due to injury, so I’m not holding these results against the player.

2) REDUCE EXPECTATIONS: Underachieved expectations due to poor play or outside factors and lowering future outlook.

3) RETURN TO PREVIOUS LEVELS: Overachieved expectations, usually for a one-time reason, therefore I’m expecting a “return to the mean” in 2026.

Quarterbacks

Will Rebound

Lamar Jackson - Started the season blazing hot, was injured and missed Weeks 5-8 and was never the same. In his final three games from Week 15-18 his highest passing attempt total was 18 passes. I believe new management can bring him back to where his physical talents allow.

Jayden Daniels - He had a season to forget, saw the field just seven times and was substandard in most of them. Based on his rookie season, I'm still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt with a healthy Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel, but start out slow and he'll be on the trading block while his name still has value.

Joe Burrow - When healthy, he is still elite. Someone please build him an android body, so he can play an entire season.

Jalen Hurts - If he's not going to run any RPOs and the "Tush Push" is only successful about 70% of the time, his production level will continue to shrink as it has the past three seasons from a high of 28.5 FPts/G in 2022.

Kyler Murray - Sorry, it's never going to be 2020 again. His stats have fallen almost every year since then and this season he wasn't start-worthy. If he starts, it's likely to be somewhere else, but I can't envision a new home which would make me want to draft him as anything but a backup option.

J.J. McCarthy - McCarthy took a 14-win team and reduced it to rubble. He can't be depended on by fantasy owners at this point, and isn't guaranteed to get a second chance with the Vikings. It was that bad.

C.J. Stroud - Results just keep getting worse and worse. An average NFL quarterback, with the 2025 Texans defense, should have been a Super Bowl participant.

Bo Nix - Still not sold, despite his 7th place finish, with 362.2 fantasy points. He can win in real life, but I'm not sure his fantasy value is equal to his value to the Broncos. Tough break getting hurt (ankle) and not being able to play in the AFC championship game.

Drake Maye - As everyone has pointed out, the schedule was extremely favorable in 2025. I'd like him to duplicate his production with the Patriots 2026 first-place schedule. He should still be top-10, particularly if they add a top receiver in the off-season.

Matthew Stafford - He overachieved because we thought he wouldn't make it through the season due to a back issue during training camp. We need better medical advice. He's going to be the MVP after a pre-season rank outside the top-24.

Trevor Lawrence - He started the season slowly, then turned into an elite quarterback starting around Week 12. It took five years, but we have finally seen why he was the No.1 overall selection in the 2021 draft. His Week 16 demolition of the Broncos, in Denver, was the final piece to convince me his 2026 will be great.