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Truths and Lies - Week 3



By Steve Schwarz | 9/17/25

Wow, it was a tough week to be an NFL quarterback. Joe Burrow tops the list after news he needs toe surgery and will miss three months. (A note here - 'turf toe' sounds so minor, they should change it to something more ominous, like 'Metatarsophalangeal joint sprain'). He's not the only one. Commanders star Jayden Daniels has a sprained knee and is questionable for Week 3. Justin Fields is in concussion protocol. J.J. McCarthy will likely miss time with an injured ankle, Brock Purdy is still sidelined and Baker Mayfield seemed to be walking very slowly at the end of Monday night's game. And... it's only Week 2.

Truths

“The truth… It is a beautiful and terrible thing, and should therefore be treated with great caution.” - J.K. Rowling

1) I bleed Eagles green, but if you are not going to officiate the “Tush Push”, then ban it.

Fact. Without rules... you have anarchy and chaos. Watching the Eagles and Chiefs Sunday one couldn't help but notice the referees not doing their job. The Eagles guards were beating the snap and the entire Chiefs' DL was lined up in the neutral zone. I love the Eagles 88% success rate on the play, but run it correctly and officiate it right or don't allow it. Those who think the Eagles only win because of this one play are foolish. They win with elite talent, sheer determination, good coaching and willpower.

Rome Odunze

2) Targets are important for a fantasy receiver, but you still have to do something with them.

True. Rome Odunze has 20 targets and 13 receptions while Chris Olave has 23 targets and 13 receptions through two games. But Odunze has produced 165 yards and three scores and Olave has just 108 yards and hasn't reached the end zone. The result is Odunze is averaging 23.8 FPts/G and Olave just 11.9 points. Bonus tip: Odunze has surpassed D.J. Moore as the guy Caleb Williams looks for first. Sell your Moore shares if you can still get a decent price and buy Rome.

3) James Cook is delivering the kind of production fantasy managers hoped for when they drafted Ashton Jeanty or Chase Brown.

Jeanty was a first-round selection, Chase around the 10th running back off the board and Cook has flown past both of them. He's produced 23.9 FPts/G on 20 touches per game and has surprisingly continued last season's personal-best touchdown rate. His workload is up 33% from 14.9 touches per game so fantasy owners should keep an eye on fatigue as the season wears on. Enjoy the ride, for now, but if you see him get tired later in the season it could be a huge "sell high" moment.

4) We should have major concerns for Ladd McConkey reaching preseason expectations.

True. Coming off a great rookie season, in which he finished with a line of 82-1,149-7 and a 14.9 FPts/G average, much was expected of the second-year Charger wideout. But the unexpected improvement from Quentin Johnston and the late addition of veteran Keenan Allen have conspired against McConkey. The wide receiver room has become a genuine three-way option for quarterback Justin Herbert and he's effectively using all three. Johnston is averaging 20.4 FPts/G, Allen 18.5 and McConkey at the bottom with an 11.6 FPts/G total and without a touchdown catch. Each receiver will have good days and mediocre days, but I can't see McConkey reaching last year's production based on the team's current usage.

5) These two rookie wide receivers are the real deal; Emeka Egbuka and Tetairoa McMillan.

Ebguka was thought to be the most "pro-ready" leaving college and he is. He's quick off the line and has great hands. Beware of overvaluing Chris Godwin when he returns. This will be a crowded receiver room, because we know Mike Evans will get his fair share and Egbuka is earning his targets in Godwin's absence. The Bucs may bring back Godwin more slowly than fantasy owners would like.

McMillan is getting the volume to succeed, he just needs to get into the end zone to make fantasy owners happy. That's coming a bit slower than hoped as veteran free agent Hunter Renfrow scored twice this week and looks to be the team's second option over disappointing Xavier Legette (15 targets, four receptions).

Lies

“Never be afraid to raise your voice for honesty and truth and compassion against injustice and lying and greed. If people all over the world...would do this, it would change the earth.” - William Faulkner

1) Those who think their season is lost because of the injury to Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow are mistaken.

It wasn't that long ago (2023) when Jake Browning replaced Burrow for seven games, went 4-3, and averaged 23.5 FPts/G. He threw 11 touchdowns and rushed for three more in those seven games, but as yesterday, will have to work on his interception rate (seven INTs). Burrow's average from 2020-2024 was 24.1 FPts/G. Browning will still have a pair of elite receivers (Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins) and a solid running back (Chase Brown). Make the waiver claim.

On the other hand... Ja'Marr and Tee might not be crazy about the news. Only three out of 11 times did one of them crack the 15 FPts/G mark during those seven Browning starts.

 Starts with Browning
Week Chase FPts Higgins FPts
12 4-81-0 12.1 DNP -
13 11-149-1 31.9 3-36-0 6.6
14 3-29-0 5.9 2-72-0 9.2
15 4-64-0 10.4 4-61-2 22.1
16 DNP - 5-140-1 25.0
17 3-41-0 7.1 1-19-0 2.9
18 4-19-0 5.9 DNP

2) New Bears punter Tory Taylor said he got this text from Caleb Williams in April 2024: "Hey, you're not going to punt too much here."

Maybe Williams can have a second job as a standup comedian? Taylor has punted a league-high 92 times since the statement. Williams is 5-14 with a 62.4 completion rate, averages 208.3 passing yards and has taken 74 sacks in those 19 games. I think Williams has talent and I wouldn't quit on him yet. I like his receiving corps as a group. You might think the lack of a running game would help him be a better fantasy value, but in fact it's hurting him. If the Bears can figure out how to be an efficient running team (they were ranked 30th at 4.0 ypc last season), Williams could be a success.

3) Ashton Jeanty is the next Barry Sanders.

False. Very false. Extremely false. Those who insisted his college numbers meant he was going to tear up the NFL were blinded by statistics. Those who drafted Jeanty as a top-10 fantasy running back are crying. So far, he's been a dud, rushing for 81 yards on 30 carries (2.7 ypc) and has five receptions for three yards. No, I'm not going to bother doing the math on his receiving yards per catch. His 9.7 FPts/G has him surrounded by Tony Pollard and Nick Chubb... not Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley. Jeanty probably won't be much better in Week 3 as he faces the Commanders, who rank sixth-best in holding down opposing running backs. We were hoping for at least a Maurice Jones-Drew level of production. We got Nancy Drew. Perhaps you can find another owner who still believes in Santa Claus, but it isn't me.

4) There is concern for Mike Evans, who currently ranks 46th in FPts/G producing just 10.4 through two weekends.

Ha-ha, you funny. Two games into the season and you doubt the man who has produced 11 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons? Who has produced double-digit touchdowns in four of the last five seasons? As long as Baker Mayfield is healthy (a bit of a concern as he was beaten up in Monday night's win at Houston) I have complete confidence in Evans. If a fantasy owner has shown you the least bit of concern, make him an offer.

5) Trey McBride, Brock Bowers and George Kittle are dominating the tight end position as expected.

Sorry, not yet. Have you checked the top of the tight end leaderboard? The top four are; Tucker Kraft, Juwan Johnson, "older than dirt" Zach Ertz and rookie Tyler Warren. Who had that foursome on their bingo card? Kraft is succeeding because the Green Bay wide receiver room is always like the "walking wounded." He should continue to produce. Johnson is off to a hot start because no Saints quarterbacks can't throw downfield. Ertz has become the favorite safety value for Daniels like he was in Philadelphia for Carson Wentz and Warren is just a stud who was always going to succeed. I think Kraft and Warren will continue making a home at the top of the leaderboard, particularly with Kittle out, Bowers nicked up and Travis Kelce living in another world which barely includes football.