Wow, it was a tough week to be an NFL quarterback. Joe Burrow tops
the list after news he needs toe surgery and will miss three months.
(A note here - 'turf toe' sounds so minor, they
should change it to something more ominous, like 'Metatarsophalangeal
joint sprain'). He's not the only one. Commanders star
Jayden Daniels has a sprained knee and is questionable for Week
3. Justin Fields is in concussion protocol. J.J. McCarthy will likely
miss time with an injured ankle, Brock Purdy is still sidelined
and Baker Mayfield seemed to be walking very slowly at the end of
Monday night's game. And... it's only Week 2.
Truths
“The
truth… It is a beautiful and terrible thing, and should
therefore be treated with great caution.” - J.K. Rowling
1) I bleed Eagles green, but if you are not going to officiate
the “Tush Push”, then ban it.
Fact. Without rules... you have anarchy and chaos. Watching the
Eagles and Chiefs Sunday one couldn't help but notice the referees
not doing their job. The Eagles guards were beating the snap and
the entire Chiefs' DL was lined up in the neutral zone. I love
the Eagles 88% success rate on the play, but run it correctly
and officiate it right or don't allow it. Those who think the
Eagles only win because of this one play are foolish. They win
with elite talent, sheer determination, good coaching and willpower.
2) Targets are important for a fantasy receiver, but you still
have to do something with them.
True. Rome Odunze has 20 targets and 13 receptions while Chris Olave has 23 targets and 13 receptions through two games. But
Odunze has produced 165 yards and three scores and Olave has just
108 yards and hasn't reached the end zone. The result is
Odunze is averaging 23.8 FPts/G and Olave just 11.9 points. Bonus
tip: Odunze has surpassed D.J. Moore as the guy Caleb Williams
looks for first. Sell your Moore shares if you can still get a
decent price and buy Rome.
3) James Cook is delivering the kind of production fantasy managers
hoped for when they drafted Ashton Jeanty or Chase Brown.
Jeanty was a first-round selection, Chase around the 10th running
back off the board and Cook has flown past both of them. He's
produced 23.9 FPts/G on 20 touches per game and has surprisingly
continued last season's personal-best touchdown rate. His
workload is up 33% from 14.9 touches per game so fantasy owners
should keep an eye on fatigue as the season wears on. Enjoy the
ride, for now, but if you see him get tired later in the season
it could be a huge "sell high" moment.
4) We should have major concerns for Ladd McConkey reaching
preseason expectations.
True. Coming off a great rookie season, in which he finished
with a line of 82-1,149-7 and a 14.9 FPts/G average, much was
expected of the second-year Charger wideout. But the unexpected
improvement from Quentin Johnston and the late addition of veteran
Keenan Allen have conspired against McConkey. The wide receiver
room has become a genuine three-way option for quarterback Justin Herbert and he's effectively using all three. Johnston is
averaging 20.4 FPts/G, Allen 18.5 and McConkey at the bottom with
an 11.6 FPts/G total and without a touchdown catch. Each receiver
will have good days and mediocre days, but I can't see McConkey
reaching last year's production based on the team's
current usage.
5) These two rookie wide receivers are the real deal; Emeka
Egbuka and Tetairoa McMillan.
Ebguka was thought to be the most "pro-ready" leaving
college and he is. He's quick off the line and has great
hands. Beware of overvaluing Chris Godwin when he returns. This
will be a crowded receiver room, because we know Mike Evans will
get his fair share and Egbuka is earning his targets in Godwin's
absence. The Bucs may bring back Godwin more slowly than fantasy
owners would like.
McMillan is getting the volume to succeed, he just needs to get
into the end zone to make fantasy owners happy. That's coming
a bit slower than hoped as veteran free agent Hunter Renfrow scored
twice this week and looks to be the team's second option
over disappointing Xavier Legette (15 targets, four receptions).
Lies
“Never be afraid to raise your voice for honesty and truth
and compassion against injustice and lying and greed. If people
all over the world...would do this, it would change the earth.”
- William Faulkner
1) Those who think their season is lost because of the injury
to Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow are mistaken.
It wasn't that long ago (2023) when Jake
Browning replaced Burrow for seven games, went 4-3, and averaged
23.5 FPts/G. He threw 11 touchdowns and rushed for three more
in those seven games, but as yesterday, will have to work on his
interception rate (seven INTs). Burrow's average from 2020-2024
was 24.1 FPts/G. Browning will still have a pair of elite receivers
(Ja'Marr Chase
and Tee Higgins)
and a solid running back (Chase
Brown). Make the waiver claim.
On the other hand... Ja'Marr and Tee might not be crazy
about the news. Only three out of 11 times did one of them crack
the 15 FPts/G mark during those seven Browning starts.
Starts with Browning
Week
Chase
FPts
Higgins
FPts
12
4-81-0
12.1
DNP
-
13
11-149-1
31.9
3-36-0
6.6
14
3-29-0
5.9
2-72-0
9.2
15
4-64-0
10.4
4-61-2
22.1
16
DNP
-
5-140-1
25.0
17
3-41-0
7.1
1-19-0
2.9
18
4-19-0
5.9
DNP
2) New Bears punter Tory Taylor said he got this text from Caleb
Williams in April 2024: "Hey, you're not going to punt too
much here."
Maybe Williams can have a second job as a standup comedian? Taylor
has punted a league-high 92 times since the statement. Williams
is 5-14 with a 62.4 completion rate, averages 208.3 passing yards
and has taken 74 sacks in those 19 games. I think Williams has
talent and I wouldn't quit on him yet. I like his receiving
corps as a group. You might think the lack of a running game would
help him be a better fantasy value, but in fact it's hurting
him. If the Bears can figure out how to be an efficient running
team (they were ranked 30th at 4.0 ypc last season), Williams
could be a success.
3) Ashton Jeanty is the next Barry Sanders.
False. Very false. Extremely false. Those who insisted his college
numbers meant he was going to tear up the NFL were blinded by
statistics. Those who drafted Jeanty as a top-10 fantasy running
back are crying. So far, he's been a dud, rushing for 81
yards on 30 carries (2.7 ypc) and has five receptions for three
yards. No, I'm not going to bother doing the math on his
receiving yards per catch. His 9.7 FPts/G has him surrounded by
Tony Pollard and Nick Chubb... not Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley. Jeanty probably won't be much better in Week 3
as he faces the Commanders, who rank sixth-best in holding down
opposing running backs. We were hoping for at least a Maurice Jones-Drew level of production. We got Nancy Drew. Perhaps you
can find another owner who still believes in Santa Claus, but
it isn't me.
4) There is concern for Mike Evans, who currently ranks 46th
in FPts/G producing just 10.4 through two weekends.
Ha-ha, you funny. Two games into the season and you doubt the
man who has produced 11 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons? Who has
produced double-digit touchdowns in four of the last five seasons?
As long as Baker Mayfield is healthy (a bit of a concern as he
was beaten up in Monday night's win at Houston) I have complete
confidence in Evans. If a fantasy owner has shown you the least
bit of concern, make him an offer.
5) Trey McBride, Brock Bowers and George Kittle are dominating
the tight end position as expected.
Sorry, not yet. Have you checked the top of the tight end leaderboard?
The top four are; Tucker Kraft, Juwan Johnson, "older than
dirt" Zach Ertz and rookie Tyler Warren. Who had that foursome
on their bingo card? Kraft is succeeding because the Green Bay
wide receiver room is always like the "walking wounded."
He should continue to produce. Johnson is off to a hot start because
no Saints quarterbacks can't throw downfield. Ertz has become
the favorite safety value for Daniels like he was in Philadelphia
for Carson Wentz and Warren is just a stud who was always going
to succeed. I think Kraft and Warren will continue making a home
at the top of the leaderboard, particularly with Kittle out, Bowers
nicked up and Travis Kelce living in another world which barely
includes football.