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Kevin Scott | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer

Buy Low, Sell High After Week 6

Buy Low

As fantasy owners overreact to the weekly ups and downs, I would target these players in trades before their value increases with better performances.

1. Drew Brees, Saints

Brees should be within a couple weeks of returning to the field, after his thumb injury and subsequent surgery. Not only will he likely revolutionize the Saints offense when he returns, but his own fantasy value should return to previous levels. If you are in need of a QB for your stretch run, Brees would be a great trade target. The Saints have a bye in Week 9.

2. Carlos Hyde, Texans

Hyde has quietly become the permanent starting running back for the Texans, a dynamic offense for what is likely to be a playoff team. Hyde has received the bulk of the snaps (52-64% from Week 2 on) and touches all season, and is producing nicely. If you are in need of a running back and can get him on the cheap, he is worthy of being targeted especially in non-PPR leagues. He is not a buy-low option in the strict sense, but most owners still do not value him appropriately.

3. Melvin Gordon, Chargers

Gordon has been back for two weeks and has produced basically nothing (16 touches for 38 yards in Week 5, 11 touches for 48 yards in Week 6). Better days are certainly ahead if he can stay healthy. His snap share was up to 60% in Week 6, and should be at that level or higher moving forward.

4. Alvin Kamara, Saints

Kamara is another big name that owners may be very annoyed with. Again, Kamara did not find the endzone, meaning he has only scored in one week this season. He only received 11 carries in Week 6, though he did also catch 7 passes. His value is likely at low point for the season and although he’s a bit beat up, he has no serious injuries and his value should rise significantly when Brees returns.

5. Robert Woods, Rams

The Rams offense had a terrible day in Week 6 against the 49ers, and Woods has struggled throughout the season except for a huge day against the Bucs (13-164). Woods’ value likely is in the basement now – same with Brandin Cooks. It is Woods who is most likely to rebound to previous levels, as he is a possession receiver and runs the crossing routes Goff seems to prefer. While Kupp is undoubtedly the most valuable Rams receiver, Woods is a worthy target if his owner is fed up and ready to move on.

6. A.J. Green, Bengals

This is a gamble, but you can’t win big in fantasy football without taking some risks. It is unknown when Green (ankle) will return, and if he will return to the Bengals or be traded. But, it seems likely that he will return soon and take over immediately as the WR1 for this struggling offense. If his owner is getting tired of waiting, that is a risk I would be willing to take, depending on my roster construction.

Sell High

These players had a great Week 6, raising their perceived value in the eyes of fantasy owners. If you have an owner in your league willing to overpay, I’d recommend taking the value.

1. Tom Brady, Patriots

I’d be willing to bet there is an owner in every league, who now sees Tom Brady as a can’t-miss QB1 for the rest of the season. He is not. He has looked okay passing the ball, but has played 3 bottom of the barrel defenses this season (MIA, WAS, NYG). Against the Bills, the best defense he has faced, he went 18-39 for 150 yards and an interception. If an owner will pay you top dollar for Brady, cash in and watch as his numbers decline against tougher defenses over the next six weeks (Jets, Browns, Ravens, Eagles, Cowboys, and Texans).

2. Stefon Diggs, Vikings

Diggs’ huge day (7 catches for 167 yards and 3 touchdowns) likely was on the bench for many owners, since the Viking wideout had totaled 16 catches for 253 yards in the first five games combined. Diggs seems to be a boom-or-bust option, and since you simply don’t know when he is going to explode, it might be smart to explore a trade after his huge Week 6. If someone wants to pay you a premium, thinking this performance will now be the norm, sell him high.

3. Devonta Freeman, Falcons

Freeman’s been solid the past three games (18, 18, and 26 PPR points), but he has produced mainly through the air, with 16 receptions for 142 yards and 3 touchdowns. That kind of receiving production tends to be inconsistent, as it is dependent on game flow and situation. The Falcons have trailed in basically every game this season, leading to Freeman’s inflated receiving production. In addition, they will be facing a difficult stretch over the next four games (Rams, Seahawks, Saints, Panthers). The line has simply not been giving Freeman room to work on the ground, but since he has still be producing through the air, it would be a great time to sell him if there is a buyer.

4. James Conner, Steelers

Conner has scored over 25 PPR points in two of the last three games, as the Steelers have leaned heavily on him with Roethlisberger out. Due to his heavy usage and his physical running style, he has been banged up often, and I see that continuing. With the absence of a viable passing game, teams simply do not respect their air attack. This will make teams load the box to stop the run more, leading to tough sledding for Conner. Sell high if you are able, particularly with his bye coming this week.

5. Terry McLaurin, Redskins

If you are in a dynasty league, ignore this. But in a redraft league, this may be a great opportunity to sell McLaurin. He is a good player, but is on an awful team that wants to run the ball more with Callahan as head coach. Case Keenum is adequate but not special, and as teams pay more attention to stopping McLaurin I think he will struggle. I would sell him high in redraft now if the right deal presents itself.