After spending the previous three weeks playing exclusively in head-to-head
matchups, I decided to focus on cash game multipliers in Week 8
to take advantage of a few cheap plays that I thought would have
high floors and the possibility of a huge upside.
In head-to-head matchups I tend to find as many consistent performers
with the hope of providing a high baseline or floor to help me
defeat my opponent. After selecting a few foundation players that
fit this description, I then use the remaining budget on cheap
upside players that could deliver breakout games to put me over
the top.
Multipliers and 50/50 games require a bit of a different strategy,
as I am going against a group of players instead of just one opponent.
In these types of games, I still need a core group of consistent
foundation players to give myself a baseline amount of points
to compete, but the increased number of opponents in the contest
means that I need more upside players than I would in a head-to-head
game.
With my strategy in place, my first goal was to identify the
quarterback that I thought would give me the highest floor regardless
of price. As I wrote in my preview piece,
Andrew
Luck had been one of the most consistent fantasy performers
in the first seven weeks of the season, giving fantasy owners
an average of 27 points in his previous three games.
Next, I decided to go with two running backs and one wide receiver
who I felt would be the highest scoring players at their respective
positions for the week, and then go with upside players in the
remaining skill positions to round out my roster.
Devonta Freeman at home against the Packers and Christine Michael
on the road against the Saints were the two running backs that
I identified as the best RB plays of the week, regardless of price.
In addition, I determined in my selection process that Mike Evans
at home against the Raiders was the best wide receiver play of
the week.
The remaining players on this ticket were chosen due to advantageous
matchups or they were projected to receive a high volume of targets.
As you might imagine after Evans’ dud against the Raiders,
I failed to cash on this ticket and my strategy this week did
not work out.
Keep reading to find out other errors in my strategy, including
investing too heavily on Brock Osweiler’s skill position
players in what appeared to be a choice matchup at home against
the Lions.
Quarterback: Andrew
Luck DraftKings Points: 20.4
Grade: C
In head-to-head matchups my goal is to get at least 20 points
from my quarterback. In multipliers and 50/50’s, I increase
that baseline goal to 25 points, considering the fact that the
probability of other people in the group having the chalk play
for the week is higher that when I am playing against one person.
Luck appeared to be a great value play at $6,800 due to the fact
that he averaged 25 points in his last three games, including
two games on the road against Houston and Tennessee.
But the injury bug bit Luck, as top receiver T.Y. Hilton was
limited to just one catch for six yards after missing a big chunk
of the game with a hamstring injury.
On face value 20.4 points seemed like a manageable amount to
allow me to complete for one of the 4000 multiplier spots, but
that was not the case as 17 other quarterbacks outperformed Luck
this week.
I would need strong performances from my other skill position
players to pick up the slack.
Michael and Freeman were my selections to deliver the highest
floor and ceiling for the week at the RB position regardless of
price. Michael’s recent stellar play increased his salary by $1300
over the past month, while Freeman’s salary ($6,500) appeared
to be a value based on the fact that Tevin Coleman was ruled out
with a hamstring injury.
The latter proved to be the better play, as Freeman shined with
two touchdowns and 58 combined yards.
A poor game script for Michael proved to be his downfall, as
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense struggled despite having
an excellent matchup against the Saints. Michael scored a rushing
touchdown, but poor play from Wilson and the Saints milking the
clock in the second half limited Michael to just 11 touches.
Projecting fantasy points in a combination of anticipating the
number of touches a player will get and the value of those touches
based on the opponent and possible game script.
I was correct in my projection for the quality of touches for
Michael in this game, but I was dead wrong in the number of touches
and projected game script. This failure was a key contributor
to my loss this week.
Spending $8,100 on a wide receiver is not something I typically
do, unless I anticipate that the player will be the top scoring
player of the week at this respective position. With Evans playing
at home against an Oakland team that allowed the 10th most points
to opposing wide receivers, I figured he was a lock to give me
his baseline average of 23 points this season.
The only game in which Evans failed to score at least 19 points
was against the Broncos, and we all know that the Raiders are
light years away from the Broncos when it comes to defending the
pass.
Of course Evans dropped a turd of a game, with only four catches
for 50 yards on 11 targets. He proved to be the Evans of 2015
for me this week and not the Evans of 2016, and wound up costing
me a chance to cash.
Fuller at home against the league’s worst pass defense
in the Lions was my home run play. In three games against easy
opponents, Brock Osweiller and Fuller connected for just over
300 yards and two scores, including five catches for 107 yards
and a TD Week 1 against the Bears.
With Detroit fitting well in the phylum (shout out to Chris Harris)
of terrible pass defenses, I was near certain Fuller would once
again deliver a solid fantasy performance. Needless to say, I
was wrong, and Fuller caught one stinking ball for 23 yards. Ugh.
The Adams play was a no brainer based on volume and what appeared
to be a high scoring game. He caught 12 balls for 74 yards, but
did not reach the end zone.
The Fedora has quietly put up top 10 fantasy points this season
for tight ends, with at least four catches in his last five games.
In addition to volume, he has proven to be StinkWeiler’s
favorite target in the red zone, as evident by his two receiving
TD’s in his last three games.
In a week where Gronk, Kelce, Eifert, and Reed all came through
for their fantasy owners, the Fedora was quietly a top five play
at a fraction of the price.
I came up 20 points short of cashing this week on this ticket,
and it was certainly not C.J.’s fault.
To round out my Davonte trifecta I went with the trendy pick
of the week in Devontae Booker of the Denver Broncos.
It was a popular pick on DraftKings, with nearly half of all
players choosing the rookie from Utah on their tickets for the
week. 84 combined yards and a TD were great, but the fumble was
disappointing and the Denver offense as a whole did not perform
quite as well as I thought they would.
Defense: Jets DraftKings Points: 4
Grade: F
I continue to fall into the trap of picking defenses that go
against the Browns, only to be disappointed because although the
Browns are terrible, they have not given up many defensive scores
this year.
Picking defenses is a crapshoot and something I have not excelled
at this year. Perhaps going with the Broncos against whomever
they play is the best thing to do.
