Last week I discussed the value of the consistency
calculator tool and how it can help you identify solid cash
game plays like Andy Dalton and Melvin Gordon.
With both of those plays paying off last week for DFS owners
who went along with my projection, I thought I would share another
free tool in this week’s article that can be used by both
cash and GPP players.
Vegas odds makers who make a living trying to predict the outcome
of games and setting favorable odds for their respective casino
provide an excellent free tool for DFS owners. The over/under
and line provided for each game can be valuable in identifying
players who are playing in possible high scoring games and players
with potentially positive game scripts.
For example, MGM Mirage has the Green Bay/Atlanta game has the
highest scoring game of the week with an over/under of 52.5 combined
points for the two teams. The line on the game is Atlanta is favored
by just three points at home, meaning that Vegas thinks both teams
will score well, but the overall winner is nearly a push.
In this game, you can target players on both teams and can anticipate
positive game scripts for both sides throughout the entirety of
the game, in what could turn out to be a close shootout.
Conversely, the same odds makers have an over/under in the New
England/Buffalo game as 47 combined, with the Patriots favored
by just under a touchdown. In this scenario, Vegas is telling
you that they do not view the game as a shootout, with the possibility
of the Patriots pulling away early and milking the lead in the
second half.
In this game, you can start Patriot skill position players who
will work with Brady to build the lead over the Bills, and LeGarrette
Blount could receive heavy usage in the second half as the
closer. In addition, Mike
Gillislee could have value in the first half when the game
is still in the balance, but could lose carries in the second
half when the Bills are training and are forced to pass.
Of course these are just speculative ideas and we don’t
know how games play out until they actually happen. But for owners
looking to decide between two similar players, taking a quick
look at betting lines is a nice free way to help set your final
roster.
Here are a few recommended plays this week using both betting
lines and the consistency calculator tool.
Back in the saddle, Ryan Fitzpatrick makes
for an interesting GPP play against the lowly Browns.
MGM Mirage odds makers predict the Kansas City/Indy game to have
the second highest over/under of the week with 49.5 points, with
the Chiefs favored by 2.5 on the road against the Colts. This
confirms my opinion that the game will be relatively high scoring,
with the Colts likely passing until the final whistle blows.
With regards to consistency, no quarterback has been more consistent
than Andrew Luck this year at providing at least 15 points per
game. In addition, Luck has been lights out recently, with three-straight
games of at least 24 points, including 30.82 points Week 7 against
the Titans.
The Chiefs have allowed over 25 points to two of the last three
quarterbacks they have faced, and are dealing with injuries in
their secondary.
All of these factors add up to an excellent cash game play in
Luck this week, as he will likely have a high floor and the possibility
of being the number one QB play.
Head coach Todd Bowles doesn’t seem to have faith in him,
and Fitzpatrick himself came out with some controversial comments
that he doesn’t believe the Jets front office believes in
him either.
DFS GPP owners looking for a nice home run play at quarterback
should believe in Fitzmagic this week, as the Jets take on the
winless and hapless Cleveland Browns.
Fitzpatrick only has one game this year with more than 20 fantasy
points, and has been one of the biggest disappointments of the
2016 fantasy season. But no quarterback has failed to throw at
least two touchdowns against Cleveland this year, and if Fitzmagic
is going to have a good game, one would think it would be this
week against the Browns.
Fade - Aaron
Rodgers vs. Atlanta ($7,500 on DraftKings)
This one may come back to bite me, as Rodgers enters the game
on the heels of a 27-point game Week 7 against the Bears.
I do think it is possible for him to play well, but he has yet
to deliver a performance on the road worthy of his $7,500 price
tag, and I think the revamped Falcons pass rush is going to give
him and the Packers passing game some fits.
No longer a value play at $7,300, Michael is currently priced
as the second-most expensive running back behind David Johnson
($7,700).
With three consecutive 20-point weeks prior to last week’s
poor performance against a tough Arizona defense on Sunday Night
Football, look for Michael to get back on track against New Orleans
and the 32nd ranked defense against the rush.
Russell Wilson is still not healthy and his inability to move
outside the pocket has limited the value of receivers like Doug
Baldwin and Tyler Lockett. But that has not affected Michael so
far in the running game, and I anticipate a high floor and very
high ceiling for Michael this week.
There are only two reasons why I would stay away from Booker
in GPP games this week. First, I think everyone and their mother
will play him as he is the darling of the fantasy world right
now.
And second, what if he doesn’t respond well to the starting
role and drops a turd in what should be a choice matchup at home
against a San Diego team that has allowed the sixth-most points
to opposing running backs.
I think the first concern is valid, and owners looking to avoid
high ownership plays will not be happy with Booker’s ownership
levels Week 8. But the second one seems less likely, as Booker
has looked great in limited work this season and looks primed
to breakout with C.J. Anderson shelved with a knee injury.
Vegas doesn’t see this game as a shootout with an over/under
of 44.5, but Denver is favored by nearly a touchdown on some boards,
leading me to believe it will be Booker time in the second half.
Fade - Mark
Ingram vs. Seattle ($5,000 on DraftKings)
Ingram’s $5,000 salary appears to be a bargain, considering
where he was drafted this summer in season-long leagues and the
potent offense of the Saints. But if you look at his game log,
Ingram has managed only two 20-point games this season, with both
of them coming against easy rushing defenses in San Diego and
Atlanta.
When playing against strong rush defenses, Ingram has struggled
with three games under 11 points. The Seahawks would fall into
the latter category, making Ingram too risky of a play for me
this week in DFS.
The price tag for Marshall is a bit steep considering the fact
that he has not been the same constant TD scoring force in 2016
like in years past.
In fact, Marshall has only scored 20 or more points in one game
this season. Which is kind of surprising considering the fact
that he and injured teammate Eric Decker were the two most consistent
wide receivers in 2015.
I think Marshall and Fitzmagic get back on track in their matchup
against the Browns this week. Look for Marshall to have a decent
floor of 75 yards and a touchdown, with the possibility of a monster
game.
GPP - Will
Fuller @ Detroit ($6,000 on DraftKings)
Fuller has been nearly invisible over three of the past four
weeks, as the Texans faced off against three of the most difficult
pass defenses in Denver, New England, and Minnesota.
When going against subpar pass defenses Chicago and Tennessee,
the rookie WR from Notre Dame has been nothing short of spectacular.
The Lions have given up the ninth-most points to opposing wide
receivers, leading me to believe that this might be a get-well
game for Fuller and the Houston passing game. I can’t recommend
Brock Osweiller with a straight face, but I feel confident recommending
his skill position players.
Vegas does not have this game has a shootout (45 1/2 over/under),
but the line of 2.5 for Houston is an indication that the Texans
offense will likely need to pass throughout the game.
Fade - Dez
Bryant vs. Philly ($7,100 on DraftKings)
We don't really know how well Bryant will be able to move in
his first game back from a fracture in his knee, and the Philly
defense has given up only three touchdowns to opposing wide receivers
this season.
I’ll get back on the Dez wagon soon enough, but I can’t
spend $7,100 on him until I see that he is back to his old self.
H2H/Cash - Jimmy Graham @ New Orleans ($6,100
on DraftKings)
For those that believe in the revenge game narrative, Graham
returning home to the Super Dome to face the Saints does not get
much better.
I’m not sure I buy into that notion, but I do feel confident
in the fact that the former Saint has delivered double digit points
in four consecutive games, including two 20 point games in Weeks
3 & 4.
The Saints have only given up two touchdowns to opposing tight
ends this season, primarily due to the fact that teams have lit
them up with wide receivers and running backs. Graham will see
plenty of action out wide as a receiver, and I would be shocked
if he doesn’t score in this game.
Offenses like San Diego and Atlanta provided a template this
season on how to beat the Broncos by focusing on tight ends and
running backs out of the backfield. Look for San Diego to utilize
their tight ends again this week against Denver, with Gates reaching
pay dirt at least once.
Fade - Jack
Doyle vs Kansas City ($3,500 on DraftKings)
Everybody’s favorite cheap tight end may hit a buzzkill
this week against a Kansas City defense that has allowed only
one opposing tight end score this season.
Doyle does rule, but I like other options more this week.
Defense/Special Teams
Vikings @ Chicago ($4,100 on DraftKings)
Normally I would not advocate spending this much money on a defense,
as there are usually fine options for quite a bit less. But with
Jay pick-six Cutler returning to the field with a “I don’t
give a crap” attitude the Vikings looking for blood after
getting embarrassed by Philly, I can’t help but think this
will be the top defensive play.
