Before sitting down at my desk with a cup of coffee to write this
article, I spent the last two hours hiking around the foothills
of my town with my dog, trying to overcome my frustration from last
night’s game between the Patriots and Bucs.
Sitting at 1-3 in my season long league of record, I needed Jameis Winston and Mike Evans to have big games in what is likely a must-win
week for my team. It seemed like a matchup made in heaven, with
the Bucs taking on a Patriots team that had given up the most
fantasy points and at least 300 yards passing to all four opponents
this season.
As luck would have it, Winston would continue his erratic ways,
and Evans would be limited to five catches for 49 yards and no
touchdowns. To make matters worse, my opponent started Doug Martin,
who nearly matched the production of both Winston and Evans. Oh,
I almost forgot, I got cute with my second flex (12-team league
with large benches) and started Dwayne Allen with the hope of
a flukey touchdown (zero targets).
We all know the saying in the industry that “no one cares
about your fantasy team,” and frankly, I’m sure most
of you reading this are thinking the same thing about my pathetic
story.
The reason I shared this with you is not to get sympathy, but
rather, to remind all of you that this game is supposed to be
fun, and it is beyond silly to ruin your evening over something
as inconsequential as fantasy football. It took two hours of hiking
for me to clear my head and gain a little perspective. On a positive
note, at least I got some much-needed exercise and burned some
calories.
Back to the task at hand. Here are a few DFS plays I am targeting
this week:
Dak Prescott ranks 3rd in our consistency
rankings behind only Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.
Quarterbacks
H2H/Cash - Dak Prescott vs. Green Bay ($6,800
on DraftKings)
Prescott has been a model of consistency this season, scoring
at least 17 points in all four of his matchups against challenging
opponents. After a string of tough games that included matchups
against the Giants, Cardinals, and Broncos, Dak and the Boys should
feast on a Packers team that gave up 212 yards and two touchdowns
on 21-of-27 passing to Andy Dalton. Don’t be fooled by Green Bay’s
ranking of 29th-fewest points against opposing QBs; those numbers
are skewed by Mike Glennon and Russell Wilson’s lousy opening
week performance.
GPP - Carson
Palmer @ Philadelphia ($5,900 on DraftKings)
An inexpensive play who has thrown for over 325 yards in each
of his last three games, highlighted by a 325, two-touchdown game
against Dallas Week 3. Although no other quarterback has been
sacked more than Palmer, the Eagles will once again be without
Fletcher Cox and they are decimated with injuries in the secondary.
Fade - Philip
Rivers @ NY Giants ($5,100 on DraftKings)
Rivers playing an early road game after a cross-country trip
is a risky play, especially against a Giants team looking for
their first win. If this game were played at home (A loose sense
of the term for the Chargers), I would feel more comfortable.
Running Backs
H2H/Cash - Frank Gore vs. San Francisco ($4,400
on DraftKings)
At just $4,400, Frank Gore is an excellent RB2 option for cash
game owners looking for a touchdown and 80 yards. Old man Gore
will have a little extra pep in his step playing against his old
team for the first time, and the Niners run defense has given
up the most points to opposing RB’s this year.
GPP - Bilal
Powell @ Cleveland ($6,200 on DraftKings)
Powell was a GPP game changer last week against the Jags with
Matt Forte out of the lineup with a toe injury. The Browns are
not a pushover against the run like in years past (19th most points
allowed in 2017), but four RB’s have posted double-digit points
against Cleveland this season, and the run game will continue
to be an area of focus for the Jets.
H2H/Cash -Dez Bryant vs. Green Bay ($6,500 on
DraftKings)
The Dak/Dez stack (say that five times fast) will be a centerpiece
on all of my cash games, and possibly some of my GPP tickets.
Bryant is a $7500 wide receiver with a deflated salary based on
average performances against difficult defenses. He is a lock
for double-digit targets with high touchdown upside in what could
be a very high scoring game.
In tournaments I like to use inexpensive players that receive
sizable target share relative to their price. It is even more
enticing when those players have attractive matchups against teams
with poor secondaries like the Eagles. I anticipate Brown will
have a high ownership amount based on his $4,500 salary and the
fact that he has double-digit targets in two of his last three
games, but he is still worth a play this week against the Eagles.
Fade - Antonio
Brown vs. Jacksonville ($8,400 on DraftKings)
It would not surprise me to see Brown come through with a big
game at home after a regrettable 4/34 game last week at Baltimore.
But with a matchup opposite Jalen Ramsay, I don’t think
Brown is worth the risk at $8,400.
Tight End
H2H/Cash -
Evan Engram vs. L.A. Chargers ($4,000 on DraftKings)
Engram isn’t the steal he was last week now that he entered
the 4k plateau, but his volume and usage at a tricky position
cannot be ignored. Although the Chargers have yet to allow a touchdown
to an opposing tight end, Zack Ertz’s 5/81 line from last
week is not out of the possibility for Engram in Week 5.
With goose eggs in two of his first four games, Henry is the
definition of a high risk, high reward play this week against
a Giants team that has allowed a whopping five touchdowns this
year. You are rolling the dice here, as there is a chance that
Antonio Gates, and not Henry, has a big day against the G-Men.
I’m betting on the younger and more talented TE.
The health of Marcus Mariotta and the chance of him leaving the
game early due to his strained hamstring makes Walker too risky
this week, even in a nice matchup against Miami.
Defense & Special Teams
Giants vs. Chargers ($3,600)
Rivers tends to force bad passes on the road, and the New York
defense is better than they have played so far this season. I
will go with Pittsburgh over the Giants if Jason Pierre-Paul is
ruled out before the game.
