Jackson and Mahomes are the two easy choices if you are willing
to pay a premium at the quarterback position. Vegas projects this
game to be the highest-scoring contest of the weekend, and the
Texans gave up the third-most points to opposing quarterbacks.
Of the eight quarterbacks playing this week, Mahomes has the best
matchup on paper, and he gets to play at home. The weather in
Kansas City looks to be clear, with no wind or precipitation to
cause any issues. Mahomes is going to need to play a monster game
for the Chiefs to advance, and I believe he will be the highest-scoring
QB on the week.
Another option to consider - Lamar
Jackson vs. Tennessee
For many of the same reasons I like Mahomes, I like Watson this
week. The 49ers/Vikings and Packers/Seahawks games appear like
they might be low scoring, and I would not be surprised to see
the Ravens blow out the Titans. I think the Chiefs/Titans game
is going to be a shootout, and I anticipate it will be the highest-scoring
game of the week, making Watson a nice value at $6,500. The Chiefs
rank in the middle of the pack in points allowed to quarterbacks,
with Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, and Kirk Cousins each putting
up at least three passing touchdowns.
I’m not sure why anyone would pay 6.5k to start Rodgers
when they can pay the same amount for Watson. Rodgers has just
four total touchdowns in his last four games and only topped 20
points twice since Week 9. I like the Packers to win this game,
but Rodgers will not be a massive fantasy point scorer and should
be avoided in DFS.
Jones has averaged 25.65 points in his last four games, including
two monster 30-plus point performances. He is clearly the focal
point of the offense, and the Seahawks gave up the 11th most points
to running backs in the regular season. This game has the makings
of an ugly, throwback, low scoring game, with both teams leaning
on their run games to move the ball and win time of possession.
Look for Jones to finish with around 100 yards and a score or
two.
Another option to consider - Derrick
Henry @ Baltimore
The fact that Mark Ingram is still dealing with a calf injury
after multiple weeks of rest has me concerned about how many carries
he will get against the Titans. Of the four games this weekend,
the Ravens game has the best chance to be a blowout win, which
would bode well for Edwards getting more touches than normal with
a positive game script for the backup running back. If the game
is close, Edwards many not have much value. If it is, in fact,
a blowout for Baltimore, Edwards could be the best running back
value.
Cook is a stud, no doubt. And the Vikings are going to try their
darnedest to run the ball against the 49ers on Saturday. But the
return of safety Jaquiski Tartt and Kwon Alexander to an already
tough 49ers defense should make things difficult for the Vikings
to run the ball. Cook may reach the end zone, but I can’t
envision him providing 8k worth of return on your investment.
Hill is going to run wild on the Texans this Sunday. Houston
does not have a player in their secondary who can keep up with
Hill on deep bombs, and just like A.J. Brown did against this
secondary twice in the last month, Hill is going to catch a short
pass and take it to the house with his elite speed. Pairing Hill
with Mahomes in a GPP stack is a safe way to build a solid foundation
this week.
Another option to consider - Davante
Adams vs. Seattle
Samuel’s floor of 30 rushing yards in three of his last
four games gives him a nice boost to any production he makes in
the passing game. The Vikings are going to bring pressure to get
to Jimmy Garoppolo, leaving one-on-one matchups on the outside
and a change for the 49ers wide receivers to break tackles and
take a pass to the house. Samuel is a budding star who will come
up big on Saturday, and his 6.2k price tag makes him a decent
value.
Another option to consider - Allen
Lazard vs. Seattle
Hopkins is the most talented all-around wide receiver in the
league and a favorite player of mine to watch. While I love the
skills, I am concerned that he has not posted double digits in
targets in any of his last three games, and the Chiefs trail only
the Patriots for the fewest points allowed to wide receivers this
year.
It is no coincidence that the teams with the three best tight
ends in fantasy, the Ravens, 49ers, and Chiefs all made the playoffs
and have a first-round bye. With all three playing this week,
I’ll play the one who posted two touchdowns in his last
game of the regular season and the one who has the easiest matchup
for tight ends.
Another option to consider - George
Kittle vs. Minnesota
If you are looking for a cheap tight end play with upside, you
should consider Darren Fells for two reasons. First, the Chiefs
are giving up the second-fewest points to wide receivers and the
eighth-most to tight ends. Second, this game projects to be a
high-scoring game, and the Texans will need to get some production
in the passing game from their tight end position if they have
a shot.
I faded Rudolph last week and was spot on until he caught the
game-winning touchdown pass in overtime. Outside of that play,
he was a non-factor, and I don’t think he will be much of
a factor in this game.
Defense & Special Teams
High Priced Option Worthy of the Cost: 49ers
($3,000) vs. Vikings
Well Priced with Upside: Packers ($2,800) vs.
Seahawks
