Prediction: Patriots 24, Ravens 17
by Mike Krueger | Follow @FF_Today
Player Rankings and Projections
|
Baltimore Ravens |
Rank |
Player |
Projections |
QB 7 |
Joe Flacco |
Pass: 240, 2 TD Rush: 5, 0 |
RB 8 |
Justin Forsett |
Rush: 65, 0 TD Rec: 3-20, 0 |
RB 18 |
Bernard Pierce |
Rush: 5, 0 TD Rec: 0-0, 0 |
WR 8 |
Torrey Smith |
Rec: 6-70, 1 TD |
WR 10 |
Steve Smith |
Rec: 5-70, 1 TD |
WR 24 |
Kamar Aiken |
Rec: 2-20, 0 TD |
TE 5 |
Owen Daniels |
Rec: 4-45, 0 TD |
TE 12 |
Crockett Gillmore |
Rec: 1-10, 0 TD |
K 7 |
Justin Tucker |
FG: 1/1 XP: 2/2 |
DEF 6 |
Defense / ST |
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New England Patriots |
Rank |
Player |
Projections |
QB 5 |
Tom Brady |
Pass: 275, 2 TD Rush: 5, 0 |
RB 6 |
LeGarrette Blount |
Rush: 50, 1 TD Rec: 0-0, 0 |
RB 10 |
Shane Vereen |
Rush: 20, 0 TD Rec: 4-30, 0 |
RB 17 |
Jonas Gray |
Rush: 5, 0 TD Rec: 0-0, 0 |
WR 6 |
Julian Edelman |
Rec: 7-75, 1 TD |
WR 12 |
Brandon LaFell |
Rec: 4-50, 0 TD |
WR 20 |
Danny Amendola |
Rec: 2-30, 0 TD |
TE 1 |
Rob Gronkowski |
Rec: 8-75, 1 TD |
K 5 |
Stephen Gostkowski |
FG: 1/1 XP: 3/3 |
DEF 2 |
Defense / ST |
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Game Notes
Ravens Have reached playoffs in 6 of past 7 seasons... Ravens are 10-5 all-time on road in postseason... QB Joe Flacco is 1st QB to start postseason game in 6 of 1st 7 NFL seasons in Super Bowl era. Has started 14 playoff games, tied with Tom Brady for most ever by QB in 1st 7 seasons. Has not thrown INT in 166 consecutive pass attempts in playoffs, 4th-longest streak in NFL postseason history & trailing only HOFers STEVE YOUNG (173) & JOE MONTANA (179) & DREW BREES (226). Passed for 259 yards with 2 TDs vs. 0 INTs for 114.0 rating last week vs. Pit. Aims for 6th consecutive playoff game with 100+ rating. Has 10-4 postseason record. Had career-best 3,986 passing yards in 2014, 2nd-most in season by Raven... RB Justin Forsett rushed for career-high 1,266 yards & 8 TDs on 235 att., leading NFL RBs in rushing average (5.4). Ranked 2nd in AFC & tied for 3rd in NFL with 5 100-yard rushing games in 2014... In 1st season with Ravens, WR Steve Smith, SR. led team with 1,065 receiving yards on 79 catches with 6 TDs. 1 of 4 players in NFL history with at least 3 TD catches of 50+ yards in season at age 35+ (HOFers JERRY RICE & JAMES LOFTON & JOEY GALLOWAY). Has 10 career postseason TDs (8 receiving, 1 rush, 1 PR), most among active players. Led team with 101 receiving yards vs. Pit. & needs 43 to reach 1,000 career postseason yards (957)... WR Torrey Smith led team with 11 TD catches in 2014, which ranks 2nd on Ravens' all-time single-season list (MICHAEL JACKSON, 14 in 1996). Averages 20.7 yards per catch in postseason career (17 rec., 352 yards, 3 TDs), 1st among active NFL WRs (min. 15 catches). In 4 career meetings (incl. playoffs), has 16 catches for 347 yards (21.7 avg.) with 3 TDs. In only career playoff meeting (1/13/13 Div. playoff with Hou.), TE Owen Daniels had 9 catches for 81 yards... LB Terrell Suggs has 12 career playoff sacks, tied with HOFer REGGIE WHITE for 3rd all-time (WILLIE MC GINEST, 16; BRUCE SMITH 14.5). Suggs is Ravens' all-time sack leader (106.5) & is 1 of 7 active players with 100+ career sacks. 1 of 3 players to have 10+ sacks in 4 of past 5 seasons (JARED ALLEN, DE MARCUS WARE). LB C.J. Mosley (129) joins RAY LEWIS as only rookies in Ravens history to lead team in tackles. LB Elvis Dumervil led team with single-season club record 17 sacks this season... K Justin Tucker has 89.8 career FG pct. (97 of 108), highest of any player in NFL history (min. 100 att.)... Club had 3 players selected to 2015 Pro Bowl (LB Dumervil, LB Mosley, G MARSHAL YANDA).
Patriots 1st team in NFL history to win 11 division titles in 12 seasons. With win, Patriots will advance to 4th straight AFC Championship Game... Club is 15-4 (.789) at home in postseason, tied for 2nd-best all-time (min. 10 games)... Patriots are 10-6 (.625) in Divisional Playoffs... Posted 7-1 record at home in 2014 & have won 16 of past 17 at home (incl. playoffs)... Head coach BILL BELICHICK & QB Tom Brady (18) have most postseason wins by QB-head coach duo... Belichick has 19 career playoff wins, tied with HOFer DON SHULA for 2nd-most all-time & trailing only HOFer TOM LANDRY (20)... Brady's 18 postseason wins are most playoff wins by QB in NFL history. Brady has most completions (590), attempts (950) in NFL playoff history & ranks 2nd in passing yards (6,424). Brady (43) needs 3 TD passes to surpass BRETT FAVRE (44) & HOFer JOE MONTANA (45) for most postseason TD passes all-time. Has 18-8 (.692) playoff record, 4th-best postseason record as starting QB in NFL history (min. 15 starts). Brady is 12-3 (.800) as starter at home in postseason. Has 12 division titles, most by starting QB in NFL history. Brady has 6-3 (.667) record vs. Bal. (incl. playoffs) with 9 TD passes... RB Shane Vereen had TD catch in last meeting. In only career playoff start, had 93 scrimmage yards (34 rush, 59 receiving). In only career Divisional playoff game (1/11/14 vs. Ind.), RB LeGarrette Blount rushed for 166 yards on 24 att. (6.9 avg.) & tied NFL playoff record with 4 rush TDs... TE Rob Gronkowski led team with 12 TD catches in 2014, tied for most among NFL TEs. 1 of 2 TEs in NFL history with 4 career 10-TD seasons (ANTONIO GATES). In 4 career home playoff games, has 19 catches for 297 yards & 3 TDs. WR Julian Edelman led team with 92 catches in 2014 & joined TROY BROWN & WES WELKER as only Patriots with consecutive 90-catch seasons... LB Jamie Collins led team with career-high 115 tackles. 1 of 3 NFL players with 4+ sacks (4) & 2+ INTs (2) in 2014. In only career home playoff game (1/11/14 vs. Ind. in Div.), had 6 tackles, sack & INT. LB Rob Ninkovich led team with 8 sacks in 2014, 3rd consecutive season with 8 sacks... Club had 5 players selected to 2015 Pro Bowl (QB Brady, TE Gronkowski, CB Darrelle Revis, K Stephen Gostkowski, ST MATTHEW SLATER).
Results and Schedule
Baltimore Ravens |
Week |
Date |
Opp |
H/A |
Score |
Dif |
1 |
2014-09-07 |
CIN |
H |
L 16-23 |
-7 |
2 |
2014-09-11 |
PIT |
H |
W 26-6 |
+20 |
3 |
2014-09-21 |
CLE |
A |
W 23-21 |
+2 |
4 |
2014-09-28 |
CAR |
H |
W 38-10 |
+28 |
5 |
2014-10-05 |
IND |
A |
L 13-20 |
-7 |
6 |
2014-10-12 |
TB |
A |
W 48-17 |
+31 |
7 |
2014-10-19 |
ATL |
H |
W 29-7 |
+22 |
8 |
2014-10-26 |
CIN |
A |
L 24-27 |
-3 |
9 |
2014-11-02 |
PIT |
A |
L 23-43 |
-20 |
10 |
2014-11-09 |
TEN |
H |
W 21-7 |
+14 |
11 |
|
Bye |
|
|
|
12 |
2014-11-24 |
NO |
A |
W 34-27 |
+7 |
13 |
2014-11-30 |
SD |
H |
L 33-34 |
-1 |
14 |
2014-12-07 |
MIA |
A |
W 28-13 |
+15 |
15 |
2014-12-14 |
JAC |
H |
W 20-12 |
+8 |
16 |
2014-12-21 |
HOU |
A |
L 13-25 |
-12 |
17 |
2014-12-28 |
CLE |
H |
W 20-10 |
+10 |
WC |
2015-01-03 |
PIT |
A |
W 30-17 |
+13 |
DP |
2015-01-10 |
NE |
A |
|
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New England Patriots |
Week |
Date |
Opp |
H/A |
Score |
Dif |
1 |
2014-09-07 |
MIA |
A |
L 20-33 |
-13 |
2 |
2014-09-14 |
MIN |
A |
W 30-7 |
+23 |
3 |
2014-09-21 |
OAK |
H |
W 16-9 |
+7 |
4 |
2014-09-29 |
KC |
A |
L 14-41 |
-27 |
5 |
2014-10-05 |
CIN |
H |
W 43-17 |
+26 |
6 |
2014-10-12 |
BUF |
A |
W 37-22 |
+15 |
7 |
2014-10-16 |
NYJ |
H |
W 27-25 |
+2 |
8 |
2014-10-26 |
CHI |
H |
W 51-23 |
+28 |
9 |
2014-11-02 |
DEN |
H |
W 43-21 |
+22 |
10 |
|
Bye |
|
|
|
11 |
2014-11-16 |
IND |
A |
W 42-20 |
+22 |
12 |
2014-11-23 |
DET |
H |
W 34-9 |
+25 |
13 |
2014-11-30 |
GB |
A |
L 21-26 |
-5 |
14 |
2014-12-07 |
SD |
A |
W 23-14 |
+9 |
15 |
2014-12-14 |
MIA |
H |
W 41-13 |
+28 |
16 |
2014-12-21 |
NYJ |
A |
W 17-16 |
+1 |
17 |
2014-12-28 |
BUF |
H |
L 9-17 |
-8 |
WC |
|
Bye |
|
|
|
DP |
2015-01-10 |
BAL |
H |
|
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Offense Stats Comparison
|
BAL Offense |
NE Offense |
NFL Avg. |
Adv. |
Points for |
25.3 |
23.8 |
22.0 |
BAL |
Rushing yards |
132.5 |
92.5 |
112.6 |
BAL |
Rushing yards per attempt |
4.72 |
3.96 |
4.24 |
BAL |
Completion % |
61.3% |
63.8% |
62.2% |
NE |
Passing yards |
236.0 |
244.8 |
227.7 |
NE |
Passing yards per completion |
11.30 |
9.81 |
10.65 |
BAL |
Passing yards per attempt |
6.92 |
6.26 |
6.63 |
BAL |
Interceptions |
0.3 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
BAL |
Fumbles lost |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
NE |
Sacks allowed |
0.8 |
1.5 |
2.6 |
BAL |
3rd down conversions |
42.9% |
44.4% |
38.5% |
NE |
4th down conversions |
25.0% |
60.0% |
46.9% |
NE |
Time of possession |
29:20 |
28:39 |
30:03 |
BAL |
|
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Defense Stats Comparison
|
BAL Defense |
NE Defense |
NFL Avg. |
Adv. |
Points against |
19.3 |
15.0 |
22.0 |
NE |
Rushing yards |
94.5 |
96.8 |
112.6 |
BAL |
Rushing yards per attempt |
3.91 |
3.58 |
4.24 |
NE |
Completion % |
64.2% |
57.9% |
62.2% |
NE |
Passing yards |
229.5 |
226.8 |
227.7 |
NE |
Passing yards per completion |
9.85 |
11.44 |
10.65 |
BAL |
Passing yards per attempt |
6.32 |
6.63 |
6.63 |
BAL |
INT return |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
BAL |
Fumble recoveries |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
BAL |
Sacks |
4.0 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
BAL |
3rd down conversions |
37.9% |
36.8% |
38.5% |
NE |
4th down conversions |
33.3% |
55.6% |
46.9% |
BAL |
Time of possession |
30:40 |
31:21 |
30:03 |
BAL |
|
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Special Teams Stats Comparison
|
BAL |
NE |
NFL Avg. |
Adv. |
Yards per punt return |
11.2 |
8.8 |
9.2 |
BAL |
Yards per kick return |
25.1 |
22.0 |
23.7 |
BAL |
Yards allowed per punt return |
6.5 |
7.9 |
9.2 |
BAL |
Yards allowed per kick return |
21.9 |
22.6 |
23.7 |
BAL |
|
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Misc Stats Comparison
|
BAL |
NE |
NFL Avg. |
Adv. |
Penalties |
7.8 |
5.3 |
6.5 |
NE |
Penalty yards |
55.8 |
53.5 |
54.4 |
NE |
|
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Note: Team statistics are shown as the average per game
through Weeks 12 to 17 of the 2014 season after deducting the best
and worst value from the data set. The exception is yards per rush attempt, completion %, yards per
pass completion, yards per pass attempt, 3rd and 4th down conversions, special teams and the NFL averages, which are each calculated based on
totals through Weeks 12 to 17 with no adjustment.
Weather
Team vs. Team History
Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots |
Season |
Week |
Date |
Vis |
Home |
Score |
Winner |
2004 |
12 |
2004-11-28 |
BAL |
NE |
3-24 |
NE |
2007 |
13 |
2007-12-03 |
NE |
BAL |
27-24 |
NE |
2009 |
4 |
2009-10-04 |
BAL |
NE |
21-27 |
NE |
2009 |
WC |
2010-01-10 |
BAL |
NE |
33-14 |
BAL |
2010 |
6 |
2010-10-17 |
BAL |
NE |
20-23 |
NE |
2011 |
CF |
2012-01-22 |
BAL |
NE |
20-23 |
NE |
2012 |
3 |
2012-09-23 |
NE |
BAL |
30-31 |
BAL |
2012 |
CF |
2013-01-20 |
BAL |
NE |
28-13 |
BAL |
2013 |
16 |
2013-12-22 |
NE |
BAL |
41-7 |
NE |
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Note: Only playoff games from the 2004 to 2010 seasons are included in the team vs. team history. Playoff games from seasons prior to 2004 are not currently included in the database. WC = Wild-Card CF = Conference Final
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