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Regular Season, Updated: 9/6/2021

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Legend:   Upside = Upside   Risk = Risk   ADP = Average Draft Position
FF Today Standard Scoring: Review Scoring
 Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Bye: 14)
Height: 6’0”   Weight: 217   DOB: 1998-03-02   Age: 23
College: Alabama   Draft: 2020 Round 1 (5) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2020MIA10186 290 1,814 11 5 36 109 3 163.6 16.4
2021 (Projected)MIA 344 546 3,655 23 12 59 195 2 306.3  

Outlook: It's Tua time in South Beach now that Fiztmagic has joined the Washington Football Team on a one-year deal. The former first-round pick out of Alabama will get an entire offseason of reps with the No.1's on the Dolphins offense, something he did not get last season with Fitzpatrick sharing the reps and COVID-19 shortening the off-season.

For someone as decorated as Tua, it is surprising how little respect he seems to get in fantasy circles and with NFL evaluators. Sure, he managed just 11 passing touchdowns and 1814 yards in ten games as a rookie - pedestrian numbers by any measure.

But considering the circumstances in which he entered the NFL, it is not a shock that he did not have a monster rookie season. Also, it does not help that Justin Herbert did so well as a rookie by comparison.

Unlike the Jets, who left Sam Darnold hanging out to dry with no skill position supporting players and a below-average offensive line, the Dolphins have given Tua every opportunity to succeed with the addition of free-agent wide receiver Will Fuller and the first-round selection of Jaylen Waddle.

From a pure fantasy standpoint, Tua is likely to go well outside the top-12 at the position, making him more of a streaming option and someone to target in two-quarterback leagues. With matchups against the Patriots and Bills, he is someone you should avoid on draft day based on his early streaming matchups. However, he does have games against the Raiders, Jags, Falcons, and Texans after that rough start.

 Zach Wilson, NYJ (Bye: 6)
Height: 6’3”   Weight: 210   DOB: 1999-08-03   Age: 22
College: Brigham Young   Draft: 2021 Round 1 (2) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2021 (Projected)NYJ 330 540 3,729 19 15 57 255 2 300.0  

Outlook: The Jets shipped off former first-round bust Sam Darnold to the Panthers and replaced him with 2021 second-overall pick Zach Wilson. Wilson parlayed a breakout junior campaign with BYU in which he threw 33 touchdowns and just three interceptions into the second pick of the draft, jumping ahead of other top QB options like Trey Lance and Justin Fields.

Unlike Fields and Lance, Wilson will be thrown into the fire as a rookie instead of learning behind a veteran quarterback. The Jets did not have much luck using the same formula for Darnold, and it is likely that Wilson will struggle in his first season.

From a skill position standpoint, Wilson has a better supporting cast than the team gave Darnold in previous seasons, with free agent WR Corey Davis joining veteran Jamison Crowder and second-year player Denzel Mims. The team also added running back Tevin Coleman via free agency and drafted Michael Carter out of North Carolina to help a struggling run game.

The quarterback position is one of the deepest in fantasy, and Wilson is not someone who should be drafted in most leagues outside of SuperFlex formats. However, keep an eye on him as we have seen young QBs like Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes shine early in their careers. Wilson has a ton of athleticism and could turn into a streaming option later in the year.

 Mac Jones, NE (Bye: 14)
Height: 6’3”   Weight: 214   DOB: 1998-09-05   Age: 23
College: Alabama   Draft: 2021 Round 1 (15) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2021 (Projected)NE 323 529 3,812 22 11 44 115 1 296.1  

 Carson Wentz, IND (Bye: 14)
Height: 6’5”   Weight: 237   DOB: 1992-12-30   Age: 28
College: North Dakota State   Draft: 2016 Round 1 (2) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2018PHI11279 401 3,074 21 7 34 93 0 247.0 22.5
2019PHI16388 607 4,039 27 7 62 243 1 340.3 21.3
2020PHI12251 437 2,620 16 15 52 276 5 252.6 21.1
2021 (Projected)IND 297 487 3,310 21 10 47 211 1 276.6  

Outlook: There's a lot to unpack here. The truth is there's almost more riding on HC Frank Reich, Wentz' former OC in Philadelphia, than there is on the QB himself.

Hope is a big word in conversations surrounding Wentz. There's hope that a change of scenery and a new offense with an upgraded offensive line, a powerful rushing attack led by Jonathan Taylor, a three-pronged receiving trio in T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman Jr., and Parris Campbell, and a viable TE duo of veteran Jack Doyle and up and comer Mo Alie-Cox, can help Wentz find his old form. There's hope that Reich can correct the mechanical flaws that Wentz developed over the last couple seasons. And there's hope that if none of that happens, that Wentz at least doesn't self-destruct to the point that a Colts team otherwise positioned for a serious playoff run, falls short of expectations.

Of course, that's exactly what Wentz did in 2020. He self-destructed. In addition to just flat-out poor play that resulted in his benching after Week 12 and the technical flaws that have taken the air out of his game, he actually led the NFL in interceptions, fumbles, and sacks taken. Then there are the issues he reportedly had in the locker room, with the coaching staff, and with the front office in Philadelphia. It's a lot to ask of Reich, but if he can somehow reach Wentz, the rest of the pieces are in place for a potent, if not explosive offense. However, until he proves the transition is officially underway, he's a borderline QB2.

 Jameis Winston, NO (Bye: 6)
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 231   DOB: 1994-01-06   Age: 27
College: Florida State   Draft: 2015 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2018TB11244 378 2,992 19 14 49 281 1 259.7 23.6
2019TB16380 626 5,109 33 30 59 250 1 418.5 26.2
2020NO47 11 75 0 0 8 -6 0 3.2 0.8
2021 (Projected)NO 276 445 3,250 21 13 47 187 1 271.2  

Outlook: Jameis Winston is going to be the Saints' Week 1 starter at quarterback. There, I said it. Of course, I don't really know that. No one does, with the possible exception of HC Sean Payton. We've heard all the usual pre-camp proclamations about open competitions and guys earning their spot in a post-Drew Brees world. But we've also gotten a lot of indications out of New Orleans that Payton and company feel that Winston learned a lot and matured a lot in one year in the quarterback room with Brees.

The truth is, unless there's a major change in scheme coming (which is never out of play with the creative mind of Sean Payton), Winston makes the most sense. As well as Taysom Hill played in relief of an injured Brees last season, Winston is the more polished pocket passer, has the stronger arm, and has more command of the reads in the passing game than Hill at this point. Word is that Winston has done a lot of work on his accuracy, particularly in the short and intermediate game that's so important to the Saints attack, and ball protection has been drilled into his head over the past year. Unless he falls on his face during camp, it's hard to envision a scenario where he doesn't at least get the first shot.

With that being said, Hill will be a factor in this offense, and fantasy owners can almost count on his package being expanded from the Brees days. That means plenty of 3rd down work and lots of red zone and goal line play. That will obviously significantly cut into Winston's fantasy value, as will the two-headed running game of Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray, which I expect to be featured more with the departure of Brees.

In the end, even if Winston wins the job, it's not going to mean much for fantasy owners who should really be looking in places other than New Orleans for their quarterback.

 Teddy Bridgewater, DEN (Bye: 11)
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 214   DOB: 1992-11-10   Age: 28
College: Louisville   Draft: 2014 Round 1 (32) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2018NO514 23 118 1 1 11 5 0 10.4 2.1
2019NO9133 196 1,384 9 2 28 31 0 108.3 12.0
2020CAR15340 492 3,733 15 11 53 279 5 304.6 20.3
2021 (Projected)DEN 246 372 2,756 16 12 28 144 2 228.2  

Outlook: Veteran quarterback Teddy Bridgewater was brought in via trade by the Broncos the day before the draft, signaling that the team would no longer be targeting a quarterback with their first round draft pick. That turned out to be true as Denver now enters the preseason with a quarterback competition between Bridgewater and 2020 starter Drew Lock. Bridgewater joins the team after having started 15 games for the Panthers in 2020. He threw for a career high 69.1 completion percentage, as well as career highs in both passing yardage (3,733) and touchdowns (15). Despite this, Bridgewater narrowly held on to a top-20 quarterback season and without a substantial change to his play style, he's probably never going to be a QB1 for fantasy, even though he's joining a Denver team that is loaded at the skill positions.

Bridgewater's checkdown style does benefit running backs in the passing game as well as short-to-intermediate pass catchers like Noah Fant. Him being the starter probably isn't ideal for wide receivers Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, however, and it would likely be especially poor for deep threat KJ Hamler.

Current ADPs have Bridgewater and Lock ranked almost identically, so there doesn't yet appear to be a consensus on which player will actually end up starting in Week 1, but either way, Bridgewater is outside even QB2 rankings and should be avoided in everything other than 2QB and Superflex formats.

 Jared Goff, DET (Bye: 9)
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 215   DOB: 1994-10-14   Age: 26
College: California   Draft: 2016 Round 1 (1) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2018LAR16364 561 4,688 32 12 43 108 2 385.2 24.1
2019LAR16394 626 4,638 22 16 33 40 2 335.9 21.0
2020LAR15370 552 3,952 20 13 51 99 4 311.5 20.8
2021 (Projected)DET 311 501 3,559 20 14 47 75 1 271.5  

Outlook: Since 2016, the year I started doing the NFC North Outlooks, this is the first time a name other than Matt Stafford is in this section. Say what you will about his inability to get the team a playoff victory, but during his time in the Motor City he played with guts and heart week in and week out, and even had a few dominant fantasy seasons. With Stafford given an opportunity to restart in LA, perennial punching bag Jared Goff steps in to lead the moribund Lions in 2021.

In a stunning offseason trade that saw two 1st overall quarterbacks get swapped (with a few draft picks thrown in for good measure), Goff gets freed from the glitzy expectations of a team trying to get back to the Super Bowl, to a Detroit team in the infant stages of yet another rebuild. It's not that Goff has been a bad quarterback, but he simply hasn't lived up to the price the Rams paid in the 2016 draft. To his credit, he did lead the team to a Super Bowl and a few playoff wins, but there just wasn't confidence he could get the team further. Goff's lack of field stretching physical ability, both at runner and thrower, means his production is largely dependent on what the defense gives him, and what his players do with the ball after they catch it. Despite the likelihood of many 2nd half deficits to take advantage of, Detroit replaced Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones with castoffs Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman, and the team's most reliable receivers are a tight end and a running back.

Goff couldn't get it done and was run out of L.A., and despite what the Lions might say, he's a bridge quarterback at best. Those long Michigan winter nights are going to be a far cry from the sunshine and bright lights of Los Angeles. A combination of limited talent and subpar weapons is not a recipe for fantasy success.

 Jimmy Garoppolo, SF (Bye: 6)
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 226   DOB: 1991-11-02   Age: 29
College: Eastern Illinois   Draft: 2014 Round 2 (30) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2018SF353 89 718 5 3 8 33 0 59.2 19.7
2019SF16329 476 3,978 27 13 46 62 1 319.1 19.9
2020SF694 140 1,096 7 5 10 25 0 85.3 14.2
2021 (Projected)SF 174 255 1,967 11 6 24 46 1 153.0  

Outlook: San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan has said that there "is no open competition at QB." Jimmy Garoppolo is the starter as we head into the 2021 season. While this isn't great for fantasy football as far as the overall quarterback position goes, it does give us clarity as to how the team currently views the quarterback they invested heavily in back in 2018.

It's been a rocky road for Garoppolo thus far in his 49ers career. He's had stints where he's looked like one of the next great quarterbacks in the league, but he's mostly been average throughout his tenure despite the fact that he did lead his team to a Super Bowl. Some of the disappointment can be blamed on the fact that Garoppolo has been extraordinarily unlucky in the health department, including his shortened 2020 season in which he suffered an ankle sprain early on, only to have it flare up and become a season-ending injury after just six games. The ankle injury noticeably bothered him and he didn't perform well even in the games he did play, averaging just 183 passing yards per game with only seven total touchdowns in those six games, along with five interceptions.

As we look forward into 2021, Garoppolo is probably not worth drafting in single-QB leagues, but he might actually be undervalued right now in 2QB/SuperFlex formats. The 49ers offense has been pretty good throughout the Shanahan regime, even when they've had some pretty terrible quarterback play. Garoppolo might not be an elite quarterback, but he's also not completely worthless, yet he's being treated that way in a lot of drafts.

The 49ers offensive line continues to actually be among the best at protecting their quarterback, so those predicting another Garoppolo injury are doing so solely based on the injuries he's suffered before, very few of which have anything to do with one another. The "he's just injury prone" line has been largely disproven by experts, so don't disregard Garoppolo solely based on that.

Garoppolo has one of the league's best young trios of pass catchers with tight end George Kittle along with wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. He's never going to give you much in the running game, but he could turn out to be a reliable QB2 in fantasy as long as he's able to stay on the field.

 Tyrod Taylor, HOU (Bye: 10)
Height: 6’1”   Weight: 217   DOB: 1989-08-03   Age: 32
College: Virginia Tech   Draft: 2011 Round 6 (15) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2018CLE442 85 473 2 2 16 125 1 50.2 12.5
2019LAC84 6 33 1 0 10 7 0 6.4 0.8
2020LAC216 30 208 0 0 6 7 0 11.1 5.6
2021 (Projected)HOU 217 368 2,466 13 6 29 161 1 197.4  

Outlook: So, it would seem the whole Deshaun Watson debacle would be a boon for Tyrod Taylor, the former Ravens, Bills, Browns, and Chargers QB who was signed to a Texans contract this Spring, indicating the team saw him as something more than a backup. Given Watson's current issues, it would seem they saw it correctly.

However, everyone I talk to points to the Texans roster and expects this to be an epically bad season in Houston. That means even if Taylor exceeds his modest career stats, at some point the Texans will probably reach the "let's see what the young kid's got" juncture of the season and take a test drive with 3rd-round pick and former Stanford QB Davis Mills, sending Taylor and his dual threat abilities to the bench.

Taylor has never averaged more than 300 passing yards per game, never averaged more than 8.0 yards per attempt, and never thrown more than 20 TD's in a season. But he is athletic and has the toolbox of skills to serve as a spot starter, and the best seasons of his career came in Buffalo, where current Texans HC David Culley was his QB coach. If your starting QB has an early bye, and the matchup is right, Taylor might be worth a pickup. But after Week 8 or so, he'll probably have zero value.

 Deshaun Watson, HOU (Bye: 10)
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 221   DOB: 1995-09-14   Age: 26
College: Clemson   Draft: 2017 Round 1 (12) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2018HOU16345 505 4,165 26 9 99 551 5 397.4 24.8
2019HOU15333 495 3,852 26 12 82 413 7 379.9 25.3
2020HOU16382 544 4,823 33 7 90 444 3 435.6 27.2
2021 (Projected)HOU 146 224 1,705 10 5 21 98 0 135.1  

Outlook: Some fantasy owners may have sat up and crossed their fingers when Deshaun Watson showed up at Texans camp. But the latest in a weird saga that continues to get weirder by the day has Watson showing off his defensive chops as a member of the scout team at training camp. This is, I guess, his best effort to avoid daily fines for missing camp after getting tired of playing 4th string QB last week.

With the three-time Pro Bowler and the Houston front office at an impasse, Watson will not see a single play of game action for the Texans this season. With 22 sexual assault cases pending, no team in their right mind, even the Eagles (who reportedly have floated offers), is going to bring him into their building at this point. Watson owners, like me, who rode him to a championship last season, will have to wait until at least 2022 when this whole mess gets sorted out and we see where he lands.

 Taysom Hill, NO (Bye: 6)
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 221   DOB: 1990-08-03   Age: 31
College: Brigham Young   Draft:
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2018NO133 7 64 0 1 37 196 2 34.8 2.7
2019NO163 6 55 0 0 27 156 1 24.4 1.5
2020NO1688 121 928 4 2 87 457 8 156.1 9.8
2021 (Projected)NO 68 100 700 3 1 61 337 4 104.7  

Outlook: Despite all the Jameis Winston love above, the real win for fantasy owners would be if Taysom Hill gets hot right out of the gate this summer and wins the starting QB job. His athletic ability and playmaking skills as a runner make him an ideal dual threat in today's NFL if he can polish up his skills in the passing game, and he has the ability to score from just about anywhere on the field, particularly in the red zone.

The argument for Hill begins with the fact that he was the one who got the ball from HC Sean Payton when Drew Brees went down with an injury for four games in 2020. He availed himself pretty well in that stretch, completing 70% of his passes and averaging about 7.2 yards per attempt - not bad for a guy who isn't back there a whole lot. He also threw four touchdown passes, averaged over 52 rushing yards per game and ran for another two scores while leading the Saints to a 3-1 record. However, he turned the ball over five times, throwing two interceptions and losing three of six fumbles.

He'll have to clean that up, obviously. But if he does, and makes progress with his reads in the passing game and his ability to play from the pocket, he could become a viable QB1 option in Payton's offense. But until he's named the starter, his only real fantasy value is as a sort of flex option in certain matchups.

 Drew Lock, DEN (Bye: 11)
Height: 6’4”   Weight: 228   DOB: 1996-00-00   Age: 25
College: Missouri   Draft: 2019 Round 2 (10) 
SeasonTeamGameComp Att Yard TD INTAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2019DEN5100 156 1,020 7 3 18 72 0 86.2 17.2
2020DEN13254 443 2,933 16 15 44 160 3 244.7 18.8
2021 (Projected)DEN 97 164 1,085 7 4 18 65 0 88.8  

Outlook: Drew Lock showed some promise in the limited playing time he got as a rookie, but actually seemed to regress in his second season. Lock's completion percentage dropped 7% despite the fact that his yards per attempt stayed at an ugly 6.6. Lock also showed signs of being a dangerous passer as he ended the season tied for league-most with 15 interceptions.

Like Bridgewater, the 2020 version of Lock doesn't give much hope to fantasy owners. He doesn't run the ball and despite the fact that he has plenty of skill position weapons to work with, the likelihood of Lock suddenly becoming a QB1 for fantasy just looks very minimal, especially as he's now entrenched in a battle for the starting job with Bridgewater.

Lock himself should be avoided for fantasy, other than in very deep Superflex and 2QB formats, but he does have a substantially more aggressive play style than Bridgewater, which could potentially lend itself to some big plays down the field - something that wide receiver Courtland Sutton is excellent at converting. Lock and Sutton did have a solid connection in their rookie seasons back in 2019, which is going a bit under-the-radar right now. It doesn't really affect Lock's value, but it could be interesting for Sutton.