Outlook: Buffalo's Josh Allen became the first quarterback to finish as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback in back-to-back seasons since Drew Brees in 2011 and 2012. Allen has thrown for at least 4,400 yards and 36 touchdowns in each of the last two seasons while also adding nearly 1,200 total rushing yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. With Allen still being just 26 years old, it makes sense that he would still be looked at as the top fantasy quarterback headed into 2022 and there's even reason to believe that we may not have seen his best form quite yet.

Even though he took a bit of a step back in overall passing production from 2020 to 2021, the only real significant difference that we saw was in the interceptions department which saw him go from 10 in 2020 to 12 in 2021. Sure, his yards per attempt were lower as well, but that number was still higher than in either of his first two seasons in the league.

The one thing that we really have to love about Allen is that his athleticism isn't hampered by his size. At 6'5" and 237 lbs, he's significantly larger than the other more athletic quarterbacks like Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. This allows him to withstand more impact on hits from defenders (and even run over those defenders from time to time), reducing his relative risk of being injured. Allen is like Cam Newton as a runner, with much better box-stuffing numbers as a passer.

While Allen's weapons have taken a bit of a hit this offseason, losing both Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley, the late-season emergence of Gabriel Davis along with the continued elite play of Stefon Diggs should give fantasy managers all the confidence they need to select Allen first among quarterbacks in drafts.

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Outlook: Like everything else Tom Brady, fantasy TB12 is the exception, not the rule, especially since his move to Tampa Bay two seasons ago. In this age of dual threat quarterbacks dominating draft boards, rankings and projections, the 45-year-old Brady is the one guy who just stands in the pocket and picks apart defenses and still dishes out ridiculous fantasy production. In 2021, he averaged nearly 27.0 fantasy points per game by leading the NFL in attempts (719), completions (485), passing yards (5316), and touchdown passes (43). The previous season, he ranked 10th in fantasy points per game (25.6) and has averaged at least 20.0 fantasy points per game every season since 2014.

The truth is, as expected, this Buccaneers offense has worked its' way more towards Brady's favored ball-control passing game than Bruce Arians' "no risk it, no biscuit" attack, which never played to the quarterback's strengths. That may explain in part why Todd Bowles is now the Bucs' head coach. But that has caused some concern among fantasy owners as well. Bowles, like all coaches who come from the defensive side of the ball, loves a strong running game. Not to worry, though. Brady's accuracy and efficiency in the short to intermediate passing game really serves as an extension of the running game. Brady dominated the fantasy rankings last season with a 102.1 QB rating (7th among NFL starters) while averaging just 7.4 yards per attempt (12th among league qualifiers).

Looking forward, Gronk has called it quits and Antonio Brown is off doing his thing (whatever that is) somewhere else. But Brady still has Mike Evans, Russell Gage has joined the fray as a free agent, Scotty Miller, Breshad Perriman, and Cyril Grayson are all capable targets who have the ability to flash, TE Cameron Brate is an underrated receiver who will get his first real shot as a full-time starter and can be a moneymaker in the red zone, RB Leonard Fournette is coming off 69 receptions a year ago (3rd amongst NFL RB's), and Giovai Bernard has receiving skills and could get a bigger role with the departure of Ronald Jones. Then, later in the season, Chris Godwin should return to the lineup after recovering from his ACL injury suffered late last season.

It all adds up to one thing. Brady is a top 5 QB1 candidate.

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Outlook: There are second year leaps, and there is what Burrow accomplished in 2022. Expectations were cool for Burrow and the Bengals, as the former 1st overall pick worked his way back from a devastating rookie year knee injury. We all know those expectations were shattered as Burrow and the Bengals rolled all the way to a 3-point loss in the Super Bowl.

Scarily enough, this offense should have plenty of room to grow if the protection can improve. Burrow was sacked an unsustainable 51 times last season, and it became a meme by the time the season ended. That said, the main cogs in this offense are in their mid-20s, and Burrow gets a healthy offseason to continue to build chemistry with the receivers. The threat of the Super Bowl hangover exists, but this is a young team oozing with swag, so the improved teams in their division and increased expectations should supersede any residual effects from the tough loss. Burrow easily led the NFL in yards-per-attempt last season, and while that's a stat you can't count on year-to-year, big plays should remain a large part of the passing game with Chase and Higgins outside. Short of a rash of injuries to their skill position players (they aren't deep at receiver especially), Burrow should flirt with 40 touchdowns and 4,500 yards, numbers that squarely put him in the top-5 conversation.

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Outlook: If ESPN ever makes a "30 for 30" on the career of Derek Carr, it'll be entitled "Solid but Unspectacular." Over his eight years as the starting quarterback for the Raiders, the 31-year-old has posted a 57-70 record, made one postseason appearance, passed for between 3,925 and 4,125 yards five times, and thrown for over 30 TDs in a season exactly once. His yardage spiked a year ago, throwing for a career-high 4,804 yards in the NFL's first-ever 17-game season, but the TDs (23) stayed the course while he also set a new highwater mark in INTs (14). Solid. Unspectacular.

Carr's opportunity to change that narrative begins now with the Raiders acquiring perennial All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams from the Green Bay Packers before the draft. The duo played together during their time as Fresno State and have maintained a strong friendship over the years, so don't expect there to be many issues getting on the same page. Adams joins holdovers Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow to give Las Vegas one of the NFL's most formidable trios.

Now the question becomes whether Carr can elevate his game to another level. He's already working from behind the eight-ball in fantasy circles since he's an old-school pocket passer, having averaged just 93 yards per season on the ground. That means he'll need to post passing numbers like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford to enter the QB1 zone. While not the worst quarterback to roll the dice on for a leap, Carr is better served as a quality QB2 on draft day.

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Outlook: The Vikings of the past two seasons have been near mirror images of each other. Tantalizing talented, and just inconsistent enough to not get into the playoffs. Because of an underachieving defense, and a prehistoric offensive scheme despite dynamic talent, Mike Zimmer and his coaching staff have been replaced with another fruit plucked from the Sean McVay coaching tree, former Ram offensive coordinator Kevin O'Connell. O'Connell has bounced around the NFL as player and coach, but finally brings a brand of football to Minnesota that fits their prolific offensive players.

Cousins' fantasy numbers didn't exactly suffer under a run-first coach, as the Viking defense was so bad, throwing the ball became necessary for survival. Instead of throwing the ball around the yard to play catch-up, look for this Vikings offense to attack defenses with a scheme that isn't shy about putting the ball in their best player's hands in a variety of ways. Much like the Rams, I anticipate Cousins and the offense utilizing multiple formations and sets to get the ball out quickly to their playmakers. Passing to set up the run will open the offense, and allow more room for Dalvin Cook to scamper around. While Cousins doesn't possess the pure arm talent that Matthew Stafford does, he was in the top-10 in the NFL in pass attempts of 30+ yards last year, so he's got the moxie to go long. Along with his efficiency numbers, I expect those deep shots to increase as well.

With a more modern scheme, Justin Jefferson in his 3rd season, and NFC North that isn't exactly stacked, Cousins has a realistic shot at a top-5 season if Thielen comes back healthy, and the young receivers develop. Either way, Kirk is a great value pick on the fantasy quarterback carousel if you are looking to wait on your signal caller.

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Outlook: Dalton was less than impressive in limited action for the Bears last season, throwing just eight touchdowns to nine interceptions and averaging a meager 6.4 yards per attempt. While acknowledging that, he's still a solid handcuff play for Winston - a veteran guy who can step in and lead an offense should Winston struggle physically, or if he reverts to his old ways and starts turning the ball over.

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