The NFL is often referred to a week to week game, and it is amazing
how much can change in less than a month. After the first two weeks
of the season, Matthew Stafford appeared poised for a monster season
with six touchdown passes against two perceived tough defenses in
Arizona and the New York Giants, while rookie Deshaun Watson looked
lost as his preseason struggles carried over into the regular season.
Of course, Watson has emerged as a fantasy darling with three
straight monster games, including five touchdown passes last week
against the Chiefs, while Stafford has thrown just three touchdowns
combined in his last three contests.
The moral of the story is that things change pretty quickly in
the NFL as the season progresses and what a team did last month
is not always a valid predictor of what may happen in the future.
With that said, I am all in this week with a Watson/Hopkins stack
against the Browns. Here are a few other DFS targets that should
be considered for Week 6.
Coming off a bye the Redskins have an easy
matchup at home against a leaky 49ers pass defense.
H2H/Cash - Kirk Cousins vs. San Francisco ($6,800
Tom Brady against the New York Jets secondary is a nice matchup
for cash games, but I am not sure he is worth the $1500 premium
over Kirk Cousins at home against the 49ers defense that has allowed
the 25th most points to opposing QBs. Cousins has averaged 26
points over his last two games and should continue that streak
this week with the Redskins fresh off the bye.
With a struggling run game and a defense that has been surprisingly
bad this season, Carson Palmer has been forced to throw the ball
an average of 45 times a game, while topping the 325-yard mark
in three of his five games. The only knock on Palmer is the fact
that he has not thrown for more than two touchdowns in a game,
despite his hefty yardage totals. I look for that to change this
week against a 31st-ranked Tampa Bay defense that is injured in
the linebacking corps.
The price is tempting, and the Chiefs have been surprisingly
giving to opposing quarterbacks, but I just don’t buy into
Ben turning around his season at Arrowhead. As Bill Parcells famously
said, “when you start talking about retiring you already
have.” I think Ben is done.
The formula for Buck Allen success looks to be pretty clear:
If the Ravens are up big, Allen will be used the primary pass
catching back and he is the one that John Harbaugh leans on as
the closing RB in the second half. Allen’s three big usage
games of this season came when the Ravens were up big, which is
something I assume will happen in this game.
With fat Rob Kelley likely out against the 49ers, Samaje Perine
is a popular play based on the fact that he is cheap at $4,400
and he will likely be the first and second down back with Kelley
on the shelf. But remember that Jay Gruden hates fumbles and Perine’s
last carry was a terrible fumble on a pitch play. It would not
surprise me to see Mack Brown get some work in this game as well.
The Washington RB I am targeting is Chris Thompson, who came
back to Earth with 2.7 points after monster games in Weeks 2 and
3. The film on the 49ers is clear: They struggle against the run,
but even more so against shifty and quick running backs like Marlon
Mack last week against Indy. Look for a bounce back with Thompson
this week, with 100 total yards and a touchdown.
At his hefty price tag of $9,600, Bell would need to have a multi-touchdown
game to justify the expense. He will be active in the passing
game, and his receptions will help give him a nice floor, but
the huge price tag with a tough matchup in Arrowhead seems too
risky for my blood.
H2H/Cash - Chris Hogan vs. New York Jets ($7,000
I would have said you are crazy if you asked me two months ago
if I thought Chris Hogan would be a $7,000 receiver and Amari
Cooper would cost $5,000 at any point in the season. But just
as I said in my opening, things can change pretty quickly in the
NFL. With a touchdown in last four games and a steady increase
in target share, Hogan has quietly become one of the most consistent
wide receivers in fantasy.
A preseason breakout darling for many fantasy writers (myself
included), Crowder has been a massive bust this season with zero
touchdowns and 106 yards in four games. Heck, Crowder managed
to post a line last week with negative seven yards and a fumble,
which is not an easy feat to accomplish.
With a $4,000 salary, Crowder looks to have hit rock bottom.
But it should be noted that he has been playing hurt most of the
season and is now fully healthy by some reports. In addition,
head coach Jay Gruden was quoted in saying that he would like
to get Crowder more involved, and the home matchup against the
49ers doesn’t get much better. As flex in GPP, Crowder could
be a difference maker this week.
Nelson had his biggest game of the year against Minnesota last
season and has been a steady touchdown producing weapon for Aaron
Rodgers. But his back injury is a concern, and this game has the
makings of an Xavier Rhodes shutdown if Jordy is not 100% healthy.
With injury concerns surrounding the top-three ranked tight ends
this week, Austin Seferian-Jenkins oddly enough is one of the
tight ends with the highest floor. The Patriots will likely create
a game script in which Josh McCown and the Jets passing game will
need to throw the ball, and ASJ is his favorite target.
There is a no-brainer move in fantasy this season when looking
for tight ends: find out who the Browns and Giants are playing,
and go with the better value. Of the two tight ends playing those
respective teams, Ryan Griffin at home is the play to make.
Kelce has been a limited participant in practice after suffering
a concussion against the Texans last week. It looks like he might
play, but I would not risk $6,100 on a tight end unless I were
certain he would play at 100%.
Defense & Special Teams
Atlanta vs. Miami ($3,500)
Jay Cutler and the Dolphins are a mess, and the Falcons are tough
at home, especially with two weeks to prepare. This could be an
ugly game for the Phins.