Prediction: Broncos 27, Patriots 23
by Mike Krueger | Follow @FF_Today
Player Rankings and Projections
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New England Patriots |
Rank |
Player |
Projections |
QB 4 |
Tom Brady |
Pass: 260, 1 TD Rush: 0, 0 |
RB 4 |
LeGarrette Blount |
Rush: 60, 1 TD Rec: 0-0, 0 |
RB 5 |
Shane Vereen |
Rush: 20, 0 TD Rec: 6-50, 0 |
RB 7 |
Stevan Ridley |
Rush: 30, 0 TD Rec: 0-0, 0 |
WR 2 |
Julian Edelman |
Rec: 10-90, 1 TD |
WR 6 |
Danny Amendola |
Rec: 7-70, 0 TD |
WR 10 |
Kenbrell Thompkins |
Rec: 2-30, 0 TD |
TE 4 |
Michael Hoomanawanui |
Rec: 2-20, 0 TD |
K 1 |
Stephen Gostkowski |
FG: 3/3 XP: 2/2 |
DEF 4 |
Defense / ST |
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Denver Broncos |
Rank |
Player |
Projections |
QB 1 |
Peyton Manning |
Pass: 310, 2 TD Rush: 0, 0 |
RB 2 |
Knowshon Moreno |
Rush: 70, 1 TD Rec: 3-20, 0 |
RB 6 |
Montee Ball |
Rush: 30, 0 TD Rec: 1-10, 0 |
WR 1 |
Demaryius Thomas |
Rec: 7-100, 1 TD |
WR 3 |
Wes Welker |
Rec: 8-80, 1 TD |
WR 7 |
Eric Decker |
Rec: 4-50, 0 TD |
TE 2 |
Julius Thomas |
Rec: 4-50, 0 TD |
K 3 |
Matt Prater |
FG: 2/2 XP: 3/3 |
DEF 3 |
Defense / ST |
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Game Notes
TEAMS MEET for 3rd time in postseason. Broncos lead all-time series (incl. playoffs) 27-20. This marks the 15th meeting (including postseason) between Tom Brady-Peyton Manning. Patriots are 10-4 in those games.
Patriots With win, Patriots will advance to 8th Super Bowl in franchise history (3-4)... NE has 7-2 record in AFC Championship Games... Last week, Patriots became 6th team all-time to reach 25 postseason wins... Incl. playoffs, NE has posted 4 consecutive wins vs. Den... Head coach BILL BELICHICK & QB Tom Brady (18) have most postseason wins by head coach-QB duo... Belichick (19) is tied for 2nd-most playoff wins all-time (TOM LANDRY, 20 & DON SHULA, 19)... Patriots are 3-2 on road under Belichick in postseason... Brady's 18 postseason wins are most playoffs wins by QB in NFL history. Brady has most completions (566), attempts (912) & passing yards (6,147) in NFL playoff history. 1st QB ever to reach 6,000 career postseason passing yards. Brady (42) needs 3 TD passes to surpass BRETT FAVRE (44) for 2nd-most postseason TD passes all-time & tie HOFer JOE MONTANA (45) for most all-time. Has 18-7 (.720) playoff record, 3rd-best postseason record as starting QB in NFL history (min. 15 starts). Has 11 division titles, most by starting QB in NFL history. Brady is 1-1 vs. Den. in playoffs & has completed 46 of 70 passes (65.7 pct.) for 704 yards with 7 TDs vs. 3 INTs & 114.2 rating. In past 4 games vs. Den., Brady has completed 106 of 149 passes (71.1 pct.) for 1,250 yards with 12 TDs vs. 1 INT & 120.4 rating... Last week, Patriots totaled 234 rushing yards with 6 rushing TDs, joining 1940 Chicago Bears as only teams in NFL postseason history to rush for at least 200 yards & 6 TDs... RB LeGarrette Blount posted 4 TDs last week, 2nd-most in playoff game in NFL history (RICKY WATTERS, 5 on 1/15/94). Blount is 1st player in NFL playoff history to rush for at least 150 yards & 4 TDs in game. In past 2, Blount has rushed for 355 yards on 48 att. (7.4 avg) with 6 rush TDs. Has 8 rush TDs in past 3 games. Blount (4) needs 2 rush TD to surpass HOFer CURTIS MARTIN (5) for most postseason rush TDs in club history. RB Stevan Ridley had career postseason-best 2 rush TDs last week vs. Colts... WR Julian Edelman posted his career playoff-high 84 receiving yards last week. Had 9 catches for 110 yards with 2 TDs in last game vs. Broncos. Edelman (105) joined TROY BROWN & Wes Welker as only Patriots to have 100+ receptions in season. Posted 1st season of career with 1,000 receiving yards (1,056). WR Danny Amendola had 3 catches for 77 yards (25.7 avg.) in 1st career postseason game last week... Defense registered 4 INTs vs. Colts, tied for most INTs in postseason games in Patriots history... CB Alfonzo Dennard had career playoff-best 2 INTs last week. CB Aqib Talib led team with 13 passes defensed. CB Logan Ryan led NFL rookies with 5 INTs. Had INT in last game vs. Den... DE Chandler Jones had career-high 11.5 sacks in 2013. Had sack in last game vs. Broncos... LB DONT'A HIGHTOWER registered 1st postseason INT vs. IND last week. Hightower had team-best 97 tackles this season. Rookie LB Jamie Collins had 6 tackles, 1 sack, INT & PD in postseason debut... DT CHRIS JONES led all AFC rookies with 6 sacks... Club had 4 players selected to 2014 Pro Bowl (QB Brady, G LOGAN MANKINS, CB Talib, WR MATTHEW SLATER).
Broncos Have 14-4 (.778) postseason record at home, 4th-best all-time (minimum 10 games)... Club is 6-2 all-time in AFC Championship Games... Won AFC West for 13th time & 1st time in 3 straight seasons... Den. (606) scored most points in season in NFL history... QB Peyton Manning (5,909) has 2nd-most career postseason passing yards in NFL history. Last week, Manning (34) surpassed HOFer DAN MARINO (32) for 4th-most postseason TD passes all-time. Manning (5,477) set NFL's single-season passing yards record & registered 55 TD passes, most in season in NFL history. Manning is 1st player to set both single-season passing yardage & TD records in same season since Dan Marino in 1984. Manning is 1-0 vs. NE at home in postseason. With Broncos (incl. postseason), Manning is 15-3 (.833) at home with 54 TDs vs. 11 INTs & 111.1 rating... In last game vs. NE, RB Knowshon Moreno rushed for 224 yards, 3rd-most in regular season game in franchise history. Rushed for 82 yards with TD last week. Moreno (1,038) reached 1,000 rush yards for 1st time in career. Rookie RB Montee Ball has averaged 6.5 yards per carry in past 3 games (24 att., 156 yards)... WR Demaryius Thomas has 3 TDs in 4 career postseason games. Thomas averages 112.3 receiving yards per game in 3 career contests vs. NE. Thomas is 1st Bronco to have 2 1,400-yard seasons. Set franchise postseason record with 204 receiving yards on 1/8/12 vs. Pit. WR Wes Welker has 75 receptions for 724 yards with 5 TDs in 10 career postseason games. Welker (75) needs 2 catches to surpass HOFer THURMAN THOMAS (76) for 6th-most catches in NFL playoff history. Spent 6 seasons (2007-12) with NE. Totaled 672 receptions, most in Patriots history PR-WR Eric Decker returned 3 punts for 66 yards (22 avg.) last week. Had career-high in receptions (87) & receiving yards (1,288) in 2013... TE Julius Thomas posted 6 catches for 76 yards in postseason debut last week. Thomas (12) has most TD rec. by Broncos TE in season in franchise history. Den. became 1st team in NFL history to have 5 players score at least 10 TDs in same season (D. Thomas 14, Moreno 13, J. Thomas 12, Decker 11 & Welker 10)...CB Champ Bailey has 2 career postseason INTs, incl. 100-yard INT-TD return on 1/14/06 vs. NE (tied for 2nd-longest return in postseason history). CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie had team-high 3 passes defensed last week... LB Danny Trevathan led team with career-high 125 tackles this season... LB Shaun Phillips posted 2 sacks last week, most in postseason game in career. Has 2 sacks in past 3 games vs. Patriots. Phillips (10) reached double-digits sacks for 3rd time in career... Club had 5 players selected to 2014 Pro Bowl (QB Manning, K Matt Prater, WR D. Thomas, TE J. Thomas, G LOUIS VASQUEZ).
Offense Stats Comparison
|
NE Offense |
DEN Offense |
NFL Avg. |
Adv. |
Points for |
32.3 |
34.3 |
23.4 |
DEN |
Rushing yards |
110.5 |
131.0 |
116.8 |
DEN |
Rushing yards per attempt |
4.47 |
4.86 |
4.26 |
DEN |
Completion % |
63.3% |
65.8% |
61.2% |
DEN |
Passing yards |
301.0 |
351.3 |
228.9 |
DEN |
Passing yards per completion |
10.93 |
11.21 |
10.71 |
DEN |
Passing yards per attempt |
6.92 |
7.38 |
6.56 |
DEN |
Interceptions |
0.8 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
DEN |
Fumbles lost |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
DEN |
Sacks allowed |
1.8 |
1.0 |
2.4 |
DEN |
3rd down conversions |
40.5% |
43.8% |
38.3% |
DEN |
4th down conversions |
50.0% |
80.0% |
50.5% |
DEN |
Time of possession |
32:19 |
32:44 |
30:22 |
DEN |
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Defense Stats Comparison
|
NE Defense |
DEN Defense |
NFL Avg. |
Adv. |
Points against |
25.3 |
24.3 |
23.4 |
DEN |
Rushing yards |
129.8 |
114.5 |
116.8 |
DEN |
Rushing yards per attempt |
4.75 |
4.16 |
4.26 |
DEN |
Completion % |
58.3% |
58.8% |
61.2% |
NE |
Passing yards |
253.5 |
200.5 |
228.9 |
DEN |
Passing yards per completion |
12.06 |
10.31 |
10.71 |
DEN |
Passing yards per attempt |
7.03 |
6.06 |
6.56 |
DEN |
INT return |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
- |
Fumble recoveries |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
- |
Sacks |
2.8 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
NE |
3rd down conversions |
41.5% |
39.0% |
38.3% |
DEN |
4th down conversions |
11.1% |
42.9% |
50.5% |
NE |
Time of possession |
28:57 |
30:32 |
30:22 |
NE |
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Special Teams Stats Comparison
|
NE |
DEN |
NFL Avg. |
Adv. |
Yards per punt return |
8.3 |
3.9 |
9.5 |
NE |
Yards per kick return |
26.4 |
21.4 |
23.1 |
NE |
Yards allowed per punt return |
5.3 |
10.1 |
9.5 |
NE |
Yards allowed per kick return |
21.8 |
35.3 |
23.1 |
NE |
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Misc Stats Comparison
|
NE |
DEN |
NFL Avg. |
Adv. |
Penalties |
4.0 |
7.5 |
5.9 |
NE |
Penalty yards |
27.5 |
64.5 |
50.2 |
NE |
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Note: Team statistics are shown as the average per game
through Weeks 12 to 17 of the 2013 season after deducting the best
and worst value from the data set. The exception is yards per rush attempt, completion %, yards per
pass completion, yards per pass attempt, 3rd and 4th down conversions, special teams and the NFL averages, which are each calculated based on
totals through Weeks 12 to 17 with no adjustment.
Weather
Team vs. Team History
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos |
Season |
Week |
Date |
Vis |
Home |
Score |
Winner |
2000 |
5 |
2000-10-01 |
NE |
DEN |
28-19 |
NE |
2001 |
7 |
2001-10-28 |
NE |
DEN |
20-31 |
DEN |
2002 |
8 |
2002-10-27 |
DEN |
NE |
24-16 |
DEN |
2003 |
9 |
2003-11-03 |
NE |
DEN |
30-26 |
NE |
2005 |
6 |
2005-10-16 |
NE |
DEN |
20-28 |
DEN |
2005 |
DP |
2006-01-14 |
NE |
DEN |
13-27 |
DEN |
2006 |
3 |
2006-09-24 |
DEN |
NE |
17-7 |
DEN |
2008 |
7 |
2008-10-20 |
DEN |
NE |
7-41 |
NE |
2009 |
5 |
2009-10-11 |
NE |
DEN |
17-20 |
DEN |
2011 |
15 |
2011-12-18 |
NE |
DEN |
41-23 |
NE |
2011 |
DP |
2012-01-14 |
DEN |
NE |
10-45 |
NE |
2012 |
5 |
2012-10-07 |
DEN |
NE |
21-31 |
NE |
2013 |
12 |
2013-11-24 |
DEN |
NE |
31-34 |
NE |
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Note: Only playoff games from the 2004 to 2010 seasons are included in the team vs. team history. Playoff games from seasons prior to 2004 are not currently included in the database. DP = Divisional Playoff
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