A dynasty league is a much different animal than a redraft league,
and the rookie draft is one of those major differences that make
it both unique and exciting. Unlike redraft leagues, where all teams
are starting from scratch and are looking only short term, dynasty
leagues have established teams, and many, if not all the teams,
are looking beyond the coming year. The following draft was done
May 31 in one of the dynasty leagues I participate in. For reference,
this is year three of this particular league, and besides being
competitive and active, it is a two-quarterback league where most
of the teams are looking to build solid, long-lasting franchises
rather than “win now and forget the future” teams.
Mike Evans will have an immediate impact
as a rookie.
This year’s crop of rookies is deep, but there is hardly a
consensus on the top players. I have seen the results of at least
eight dynasty rookie drafts this year, and all eight have very different
results. Here are our results:
Round 1
1. Mike Evans (WR Tampa Bay)
2. Sammy Watkins (WR Buffalo)
3. Brandin Cooks (WR New Orleans)
4. Eric Ebron (TE Detroit)
5. Johnny Manziel (QB Cleveland)
6. Teddy Bridgewater (QB Minnesota)
7. Bishop Sankey (RB Tennessee)
8. Blake Bortles (QB Jacksonville)
9. Carlos Hyde (RB San Francisco)
10. Terrance West (RB Cleveland)
11. Odell Beckham Jr. (WR New York Giants)
12. Kelvin Benjamin (WR Carolina)
Best Pick of Round: Sankey
Worst Pick of Round: Cooks
Although the values of rookies this year are all over the map
depending on who you talk to, most results I have seen have Watkins,
Evans or Sankey as the top pick. Depending on need and risk level,
I could certainly see a handful of players taken No. 1 and, in
our particular draft, I thought Evans, who should be an immediate
red zone contributor, was a solid pick. This is a deep wide receiver
class, but I agree with most people who believe Evans and Watkins
have the most upside (fantasy-wise). Both should contribute enough
right away to make them solid low-end WR3s, with the potential
for more.
The first surprise to me in this round was Cooks being taken
at No. 3. While I like his skill set and the quarterback throwing
to him, I think he was a bit of a reach, considering the talent
the Saints already have and the other players available with this
selection. The team taking Cooks, however, had a need at WR and
is in rebuilding mode, so it is hard to argue with his long-term
potential.
Ebron at No. 4 might be another minor reach, but he is clear
and away the top tight end in this draft and lands in an ideal
situation in a pass-happy offense that has Calvin Johnson to clear
the middle of the field for the tight ends.
The team picking at No. 5 had a man-crush on Manziel, and while
I personally would shy away from him, it is hard to argue against
his potential upside as a dual-threat quarterback who could eventually
put up Michael Vick-type numbers in his prime.
Bridgewater at No. 6 was another small surprise, but the team
drafting him was extremely QB-needy and was afraid he might not
get a quarterback by the time he picked again in round two. I
personally like Bridgewater more than the other quarterbacks this
year, at least as far as a solid, safe pick. With some decent
weapons around him, I could see Bridgewater being in that 12-15
range of fantasy QBs for multiple seasons, although probably not
for another year or two.
Sankey at No. 7 is probably a few picks later than he usually
goes and therefore could be the steal of the first round. He easily
has the best situation of any rookie running back and can be a
fantasy starter right away. While many people probably will take
Sankey in the top 3 of their rookie drafts, I personally would
not unless you are in “win now” mode and one solid
RB away from being a contender. While Sankey’s situation
is nice, he is nowhere near an elite talent, and there are no
guarantees he takes the job and runs with it.
The rest of the first round was more or less predictable, with
West being the most heavily debated player. Many in this draft
did not have him in their top 20, while others thought it was
a solid pick. I do not believe in Ben Tate to stay healthy all
year, and with that offense being centered on the run, West could
provide a mid-season spark to those who invest in him early. Benjamin
at 12 might seem like excellent value to some who looks at Carolina’s
situation and Benjamin’s size, but to me he is a weekly
boom-or-bust type player who will be TD-dependent because he does
not get off the line very well and is not the best route runner.
I see Benjamin as a poor man’s Vincent Jackson, and Jackson
did not make a significant impact until his fourth year in the
league.
Round 2
13. Devonta Freeman (RB Atlanta)
14. Jeremy Hill (RB Cincinnati)
15. Jordan Matthews (WR Philadelphia)
16. Tre Mason (RB St. Louis)
17. Derek Carr (QB Oakland)
18. Logan Thomas (QB Arizona)
19. Andre Williams (RB New York Giants)
20. Marqise Lee (WR Jacksonville)
21. Davante Adams (WR Green Bay)
22. Jarvis Landry (WR Miami)
23. Tom Savage (QB Houston)
24. Jace Amaro (TE New York Jets)
Best Pick of Round: Matthews
Worst Pick of Round: Thomas
While most of the guys taken here may not blossom for a year
or two, you could argue there is just as much talent here as there
was in the first round. I like the first two picks in the round,
with Freeman and Hill both being valuable depth, but for much
different reasons. Freeman is more of a handcuff this year but
could take over the starting role in Atlanta as soon as next season
if Steven Jackson breaks down again and Freeman takes advantage
of his opportunities this year. Hill, on the other hand, might
never be a full-time starter but could lead all rookies in TD
runs this season as the probable short-yardage guy behind Giovani
Bernard in Cincinnati.
The pick I like the most in this round is Matthews at No. 15,
who I think could be the third-best WR in this class and lands
in a nice situation in Philadelphia, where he could easily be
the second- most targeted wide receiver right away and possibly
more a year from now. Matthews’ competition is either mediocre
(Riley Cooper) or injury prone (Jeremy Maclin), and being known
as a gym rat and extremely smart player should be a huge advantage
in Chip Kelly’s fast-pace and precise offense.
Mason at No. 16 seems appropriate as a guy who could ride the
bench all year behind Zac Stacy and never amount to much or explode
on the scene and steal touches from Stacy right away. I tend to
lean more toward the former because of his lack of pass protection
skills and injury issues, but at No. 16, he’s a fairly solid
value.
Two QBs were drafted at No. 17 and No. 18, and while it’s
probably early, especially for Thomas, this is a two-QB league,
and the guy drafting Thomas has Carson Palmer as his second QB.
The rest of the round, the player that stands out to me most is
Adams, who probably will not do much this year but if things fall
the right way could be Aaron Rodgers’ No. 2 wide receiver
next season, making him a potential top-20 WR in 2015. As far
as reaches or disappointing picks in this round go (other than
Thomas), I think Lee was taken too high (injury, unknown quarterback,
Robinson better), and while I like Houston as a destination for
QBs, Savage seems like a significant reach here.
Round 3
25. Cody Latimer (WR Denver)
26. Donte Moncrief (WR Indianapolis)
27. Troy Niklas (TE Arizona)
28. Allen Robinson (WR Jacksonville)
29. Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE Tampa Bay)
30. Lache Seastrunk (RB Washington)
31. Zach Mettenberger (QB Tennessee)
32. Charles Sims (RB Tampa Bay)
33. Storm Johnson (RB Jacksonville)
34. Martavis Bryant (WR Pittsburgh)
35. Jimmy Garoppolo (QB New England)
36. Isaiah Crowell (RB Cleveland)
Best Pick of Round: Crowell or Seferian-Jenkins
Worst Pick of Round: Niklas
Round 3 was full of guys who will probably not make much of an
impact this coming year but have long-term potential to be fantasy
starters. Latimer is a solid value as the Broncos No. 4 wide receiver
who could move up the depth chart if Wes Welker can’t stay
healthy or Emmanuel Sanders fails to produce.
Moncrief is a personal favorite of mine, and while his situation
does not look great right now, being fifth on the depth chart
at best, two of the guys in front of him are aging and/or injury
prone (Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks), and both guys are playing
on one-year contracts. With the physical makeup of a No. 1 WR,
Moncrief is oozing with long-term potential, even if he does not
produce much this year.
I personally like Robinson over Lee, who went earlier in this
draft and who the Jags drafted before Robinson. Robinson has excellent
size (6’3, 220) and produced at a high level for multiple
seasons in college.
Of the two TEs taken in this round, I much prefer Sefarian-Jenkins,
who was taken after Niklas. Niklas is a try-hard guy and probably
the better all-around tight end, but Sefarian-Jenkins is a much
better athlete and pass-catching threat, not to mention his situation
is probably a bit better compared to Niklas, who will be asked
to block more in Arizona.
The Seastrunk pick was a bit of a waste to me, as he will probably
be seldom used in Washington unless injury strikes both Alfred
Morris and Roy Helu.
Mettenberger has serious arm talent but seems like a career third-
stringer or bust, but the guy who drafted him owns Jake Locker,
so he figured why not double down on the Titans QB situation (as
if that is a good thing?).
I like Storm Johnson where he was taken; he is a good fit for
the Jags, and while many people are hyping Toby Gerhart, why not
take a flyer on his backup who could run away with the job if
Gerhart chokes?
Bryant seems like decent value where he was picked but also has
the looks of a guy who will take a good amount of time to develop.
Crowell may actually be the best pick of the round, at least
value-wise, as perhaps the most physically talented back in the
draft. Crowell will enter the season third on the depth chart
in Cleveland, but Tate finds it difficult to stay healthy, and
West (though I like him), has not exactly proven he can play against
superior talent yet. In that Browns offense, Crowell could be
a near stud come fantasy playoff time if the chips fall the right
way.
Round 4
37. Ka’Deem
Carey (RB Chicago)
38. C.J. Fiedorowicz (TE Houston)
39. Jerick McKinnon (RB Minnesota)
40. James White (RB New England)
41. Lorenzo Taliaferro (RB Baltimore)
42. Devin Street (WR Dallas)
43. Paul Richardson (WR Seattle)
44. Shaquelle
Evans (WR New York Jets)
45. Colt Lyerla (TE Green Bay)
46. Tajh Boyd (QB New York Jets)
47. Tyler Gaffney (RB Carolina)
48. Jeff Janis (WR Green Bay)
Best Pick of Round: Taliaferro
Worst Pick of Round: Boyd
The final round of our draft started with two guys I really like
as quality depth. Carey should immediately be the top backup to
Matt Forte and, if Forte goes down, could easily be a solid RB2,
thanks to his lack of competition, prowess in the passing game
and open running lanes he should see because of Brandon Marshall
and Alshon Jeffery on the outside. Fiedorowicz is not easy to
say or spell and is part of a muddled tight end situation in Houston
but could rise to the top of that depth chart by mid-season. Bill
O’Brien will utilize his tight ends in the passing game.
McKinnon and White are both interesting because of their situations,
McKinnon as Adrian Peterson’s most gifted backup on the
Vikings and White on the Patriots, a team that gets three-plus
RBs involved nearly every game. Neither guy excites me much right
now, but they are decent picks for teams looking for young depth
with situational upside.
Taliaferro is a solid pick here, and chances are, if this draft
was held today, he’d be picked a little earlier, as his
chances of playing time seem to increase daily. With Ray Rice
likely suspended a few games and Bernard Pierce coming off a down
and injury-plagued year, Taliaferro could actually wind up starting
a few games this season.
Of the remaining picks, none really excited me, but Lyerla is
an interesting flyer as a physically gifted, but troubled, tight
end who could make a real impact as soon as this year if he gets
his head on straight. Jeff Janis will not do much of anything
this year but is a guy to monitor next year depending on how the
Packers WR situation pans out. None of the other last few picks
have much of a shot to stick with the fantasy teams that drafted
them.
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