Regardless of the type of league you play
in, risk/reward is a big part of the decision making process that
goes through every owners mind when drafting. Whether the risk comes
from likelihood of injury, chance of being a bust, lack of experience,
or position competition, there are many factors that can make players
risky. On the flip side, some players with a higher degree of risk
often turn out to be values and even studs so the reward ends up
outweighing the risk.
Below are two high-priced quarterbacks who carry an obvious risk
with a potential high reward. After analyzing both sides I’ll
make the decision to “buy or sell” at their current
average draft position..
Note: ADP based on 12-team, standard scoring leagues.
Newton's stellar 2015 season and dual threat
capability is making the No.1 QB off the board in 2016.
Risk: After Newton’s monstrous
2015 season the risk of regression is obvious. He bested all fantasy
quarterback’s (by as much as 50 points in some formats), leaving
nowhere else to go but down. Newton was a mid-to-late-round pick
last season but this year you will most likely have to pony up
a 3rd round pick to acquire him, meaning you are banking on a
repeat of last season in order to justify his draft slot. On paper,
his weapons are back including Kelvin
Benjamin and his offensive line returns minus a little less
depth, so what, other than his draft position is risky? First
off, history is not on his side, as it has been over 12 years
since the previous year’s number one fantasy QB has repeated the
following year (Daunte Culpepper 2003-04). Second, Cam has stayed
remarkably healthy (only 2 missed games in five years) but has
taken his share of punishment the past few seasons, meaning a
breakdown or injury is more likely to become a factor. Finally,
Newton has the spotlight brightly shining on him and the volume
of opportunities and attention has meant more scrutiny, publicity,
and obligations. While he seems to handle it fairly well, and
it is obviously impossible to quantify, others have been known
to lose focus on the field when outside influences and pressures
become overwhelming.
Reward: The possible reward is
a repeat of last season. With nearly 4,000 yards passing, 35 passing
touchdowns, over 600 yards rushing and another 10 rushing scores,
Newton posted one of the best fantasy seasons for a quarterback
in a long time. With Benjamin returning from injury and no real
additions in the run game, it is conceivable that both his passing
and rushing numbers actually increase this year. The loss of DB
Josh
Norman could lead to a small step back on defense forcing
the offense to take on a bigger role. Even if Cam regresses a
bit from last season, it is very possible he ends up on top again
with slightly less points than last year, making him a safe value
where at his current ADP.
Buy or Sell based on ADP: I was
as impressed as anyone with Newton’s performance last season.
Down their best receiver, he put the team on his shoulders and
carried the Panthers, and many fantasy teams, to a lot of victories.
However, based on a likely regression and the quality of players
being drafted around him, I must sell Newton as a 3rd round pick.
His weapons may actually be better this year (although I’m not
a big Benjamin believer) but based on a tougher schedule, a thinner
offensive line, and a likely regression in TD-to-INT numbers (he
bested his previous career high in TD’s by 11 last year) I think
Newton’s stats take a dip and he ends up being a low-end QB1 than
THE QB1. More importantly, the talent you have to pass up on in
order to draft Newton is phenomenal, including WR Brandon
Marshall, WR T.Y.
Hilton, WR Demaryius
Thomas, RB C.J.
Anderson, and WR Sammy
Watkins. These are all potential top 12 receivers and running
backs, going in Round 3. Looking at his 2015 numbers might make
you drool, but resist the urge and get yourself a stud at another
position knowing you can still get a quality quarterback several
rounds later.
Risk: Luck suffered a multitude
of injuries last season including ribs, ankle, shoulder, and a
kidney laceration that forced him to miss nine games. While all
of these injuries seem to be in the past, the mental toll these
bumps and bruises can have on a player is significant, especially
if he gets beaten up early in the 2016 season. Luck is consistently
taken as the QB3 (late 4th round on average). With legitimate
RB2’s and WR2’s being drafted just after him, you’re damaging
your team’s depth in order to take a quarterback whose fantasy
points could be matched or beaten by QB’s drafted several rounds
later. Finally, while his newly signed contract says Luck is an
all-time great player, he really only has one season (out of 4)
of being an elite (QB1-4) fantasy quarterback.
Reward: Ever since Luck was drafted
first overall he has attempted to put the Colts on his back, posting
solid numbers despite less than average talent around him. The
2014 season showed us a glimpse of Luck’s dominance, throwing
for over 4,700 yards and 40 touchdowns while rushing for 3 more
touchdowns and 273 yards. Last season injuries played a huge role
in his disappointing season but what may be most exciting for
Luck’s prospects is his surrounding cast, which is likely the
best he’s had in his career. T.Y. Hilton and Donte
Moncrief both entering the prime, giving Luck two supremely
gifted athletes whose strengths play well off each other and both
have shown outstanding chemistry with Luck over the past two seasons.
Add in 2015 first round pick Phillip
Dorsett in the mix and you have a trio of wide receivers capable
of making big plays. TE Dwayne
Allen is one of the better redzone threats in the league and
with plenty of draft capital spent on beefing up the offensive
line, including first round pick Ryan Kelly, Luck should be better
protected than in year’s past.
Buy or Sell based on ADP: This
year I have two main strategies when it comes to drafting fantasy
quarterbacks; wait till around Round 6 and grab Drew
Brees or wait until the double-digit rounds, meaning Luck
in Round 4 is a sell. I have some faith in Luck returning to form
and ending up a top 5 fantasy quarterback this season, but the
investment is too much compared to the risk. The offensive line
is improved but not to a degree where I’d consider it a strength.
His receiving options above average, but he lacks a true No.1
receiver (Dez
Bryant, Julio
Jones, A.J.
Green). Allen is a solid all-around tight end but has a long
injury history and isn’t the downfield threat that Coby
Fleener is. Luck’s ability to avoid big hits is still in question.
He seems to fight for the extra yards or hold onto the ball for
an extra second to find a receiver, leading to sacks in the pocket.
Overall, I have confidence in Luck’s talent but investing a 4th
or 5th round pick represents a cost I’m not willing to pay. Other
options like Jeremy
Hill, Jeremy
Maclin, Greg
Olsen, and Eric
Decker are safer and still provide enough upside to be top
options at their positions most weeks.
