Regardless of the type of league you play
in, risk/reward is a big part of the decision making process that
goes through every owners mind when drafting. Whether the risk comes
from likelihood of injury, chance of being a bust, lack of experience,
or position competition, there are many factors that can make players
risky. On the flip side, some players with a higher degree of risk
often turn out to be values and even studs so the reward ends up
outweighing the risk.
Below are three receivers who carry obvious risk with a potential
high reward. After analyzing both sides I’ll make the decision
to “buy or sell” at their current average draft position..
Note: ADP based on 12-team, standard scoring leagues.
Injury Concern? Prior to his ACL injury
Jordy Nelson had missed just 7 games in seven seasons.
Risk: Nelson is coming off an ACL injury at 31 years old. Can
he return form and regain fantasy WR1 status again? The only other
minor and much less discussed “risk” is that Nelson
has had just two elite seasons as a fantasy receiver in his seven-year
career. Nelson has already missed practice time in camp because
of “minor” knee tendonitis. Do you really want to
invest an early to mid-second round pick on a player at his age
with knee issues that can zap speed and quickness?
Reward: It was painfully obvious last year that the Packers offense
is most productive when Jordy Nelson is around. It is all but
a certainty that Nelson will regain his role as Aaron Rodgers
go-to-guy and lead the team in receiving once again. In his last
three full 16 game seasons, Nelson has averaged 84 catches, 1,365
yards and 12 touchdowns per year. Plain and simple, these are
fantasy WR1 numbers that put him among the very elite players
at his position. With a very favorable schedule, an elite quarterback,
average competition for targets, and a full 12 months recovery
time from tearing his ACL, Nelson is primed for a big comeback
and might have an even higher ADP if he wasn’t coming off
an injury. As your second pick, Nelson could easily perform as
a top 12 player overall, making his current ADP an actual bargain.
Buy or Sell at ADP: Nelson is an
interesting case, as I like a number of the wide receivers being
drafted around him including Mike
Evans (2.09), Amari
Cooper (2.10), and Keenan
Allen (2.09). That said, I am going to be a buyer of Nelson
as a second round pick. He’s a good bet in standard scoring leagues
where yardage and touchdowns rule the day. Yes, injury and age
are concerns but there are plenty of productive receivers Nelson’s
age or older (Brandon
Marshall, Larry
Fitzgerald) and let’s be honest; injury is a risk for everyone
and Nelson does not have an extensive or worrisome history (missed
just 7 games in first 7 seasons). While it may take a game or
two to get back the rhythm/chemistry between Nelson and Rodgers,
the schedule is a goldmine, facing several soft defenses and several
other games that should be shootouts, making the likelihood of
“elite” games very likely. I actually think the risks associated
with Nelson are fairly low, comparable to other receivers and
securing him as your WR2 if you’re using a WR-heavy approach is
about as good a start as you can get in fantasy drafts.
Risk: There are several factors that stand out as “risks”
by drafting Benjamin this year, although none of them seem major
on their own. First, Benjamin missed all of the 2015 with a torn
ACL so the possible difficulties of getting back into form and
risk of re-injury is certainly something to consider. Second,
although Benjamin should theoretically jump right into being the
Panthers number one receiver, he was very inefficient his rookie
year, catching just 50 percent of passes thrown his way, and much
of his production came in garbage time. Finally, after an unsteady
rookie year and another season away from football due to injury,
Benjamin is being drafted as a high-end WR2 even though that appears
to be his ceiling. With Cam Newton being a huge force near the
goal line, in a run-first offense, Greg Olsen as a high-volume
target, and a stingy defense that should dictate a conservative
game plan, Benjamin’s upside seems capped.
Reward: Benjamin’s ranked No.6 in targets his rookie year and
as we all know, Cam
Newton took a huge step forward in 2015 and this, in turn,
should trickle down to Benjamin being a more efficient receiver.
His 9 touchdowns and just over a 1000 yards was not considered
“polished” indicating room for growth. With a year to absorb the
playbook and a full off-season to build chemistry with his QB,
there is a strong likelihood of some progression, both mentally
and physically for this young man. Other than Olsen, there are
no legitimate receiving threats on this team and Benjamin should
easily contend for the most targets on the team. Ted
Ginn Jr., the Panthers second leading receiver last season
managed 10 touchdowns on 96 targets, almost 50 less than Benjamin
had his rookie season. With Cam getting beat up by opposing defenses,
the Panthers may want to call less rushing plays for him inside
the 5-yard line in order to protect their franchise quarterback
and Benjamin should easily be the recipient of those opportunities.
Benjamin’s touchdown upside alone should be enough to vault him
into the top 15 of receivers this year.
Buy or Sell at ADP: I understand why there is excitement
for Benjamin this season but I believe the hype has driven his
price up too high, so I am a seller of Benjamin as a 3rd round
pick. While I highlighted most of the risks, and I do believe
there are merit to each one, the main reason I am a seller is
I do not believe Benjamin’s skills fall short of other No.1
wideouts. Other than his size (6-5, 235), which of course is elite,
Benjamin is neither fast nor quick, is prone to drops, and is
nowhere near a polished route runner. Because of this, defenders
are able to defend a lot of passes thrown his way, which leads
to inefficiencies in his game. Bottom line: Benjamin is going
to need a ton of targets and/or be very touchdown dependent to
live up to his draft status. With his 2014 rookie target number
looking like his absolute ceiling Benjamin would likely need to
dramatically increase his efficiency or score 12-plus touchdowns
to become a top 15 fantasy receiver. I’d prefer safer options
like Brandin Cooks, T.Y. Hilton, Demaryius Thomas, and Sammy Watkins
all being drafted around or after Benjamin in Round 3.
Risk: After scoring a total of 15 touchdowns in his first four
seasons combined, Baldwin scored 14 TDs in 2015, with 12 coming
in the final eight games. Can you say “outlier”? Simply
put, this pace is unsustainable especially for an unspectacular
talent like Baldwin. Baldwin is a solid all-around receiver, able
to block, run solid routes, with above average hands, but he does
not possess traits that set him apart and allow him to dominate
the game the way more traditional number one receivers do. Baldwin
has average size, speed and athletic ability, and plays on one
of the more run-heavy teams of the past decade. Add in second-year
receiver Tyler Lockett, a more physically gifted receiver, and
the probable return of Jimmy Graham, and Baldwin is likely to
revert back to his 50-60 catch, 700 or so yards and 4-5 touchdown
stat line that was becoming the norm in his career before lighting
struck last season.
Reward: While most believe Baldwin won’t keep up the pace he
was on last season, the facts remain; Baldwin did finish as a
top 10 receiver and with almost no personnel changes around him,
it is certainly possible that even with a little regression, Baldwin
is a bargain in the late 4th round. With Marshawn
Lynch calling it quits and after drafting three running backs
this off-season it appears the team is searching for a player
to keep their run-heavy philosophy going. With Russell
Wilson emerging, improving, and gaining more trust from his
coaches, this could be the year the Seahawks shift to a pass-heavy
approach. And even if Lockett emerges as the big play receiver
in the offense, it is very likely the chemistry Wilson and Baldwin
have created will carry on making Baldwin the security blanket
for one of the league’s most efficient passers.
Buy or Sell at ADP: While Baldwin is not going excite many
fantasy owners, I truly believe he presents solid value in the
late 4th/early 5th round. I’m buying. The expected regression
is built into his ADP meaning he is actually becoming a value.
Currently Baldwin is the 23rd receiver off the board, which is
too much of an expected drop from finishing as the WR7 last year.
While the Seattle backfield certainly has talent, I trust the
coaches will put the ball in Russell Wilson’s hands and I can
envision Baldwin being the Larry
Fitzgerald, Eric
Decker, or Jeremy
Maclin of 2015 - consistent, safe, and occasionally explosive.
If you are like me and normally draft two receivers and a running
back in the first three rounds, Baldwin makes for an excellent
third wideout on your fantasy team who should post consistent
WR2 points each week and flirt with WR1 value when Seattle is
forced to throw more than usual.
