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Bill Anderson | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer
Positions: QBs | RBs | WRs

Buy or Sell? High Risk, High Reward WRs in your Draft
8/14/16
Regardless of the type of league you play in, risk/reward is a big part of the decision making process that goes through every owners mind when drafting. Whether the risk comes from likelihood of injury, chance of being a bust, lack of experience, or position competition, there are many factors that can make players risky. On the flip side, some players with a higher degree of risk often turn out to be values and even studs so the reward ends up outweighing the risk.

Below are three receivers who carry obvious risk with a potential high reward. After analyzing both sides I’ll make the decision to “buy or sell” at their current average draft position..

Note: ADP based on 12-team, standard scoring leagues.

Jordy Nelson

Injury Concern? Prior to his ACL injury Jordy Nelson had missed just 7 games in seven seasons.


Jordy Nelson, GB
(ADP 2.05)

Risk: Nelson is coming off an ACL injury at 31 years old. Can he return form and regain fantasy WR1 status again? The only other minor and much less discussed “risk” is that Nelson has had just two elite seasons as a fantasy receiver in his seven-year career. Nelson has already missed practice time in camp because of “minor” knee tendonitis. Do you really want to invest an early to mid-second round pick on a player at his age with knee issues that can zap speed and quickness?

Reward: It was painfully obvious last year that the Packers offense is most productive when Jordy Nelson is around. It is all but a certainty that Nelson will regain his role as Aaron Rodgers go-to-guy and lead the team in receiving once again. In his last three full 16 game seasons, Nelson has averaged 84 catches, 1,365 yards and 12 touchdowns per year. Plain and simple, these are fantasy WR1 numbers that put him among the very elite players at his position. With a very favorable schedule, an elite quarterback, average competition for targets, and a full 12 months recovery time from tearing his ACL, Nelson is primed for a big comeback and might have an even higher ADP if he wasn’t coming off an injury. As your second pick, Nelson could easily perform as a top 12 player overall, making his current ADP an actual bargain.

Buy or Sell at ADP: Nelson is an interesting case, as I like a number of the wide receivers being drafted around him including Mike Evans (2.09), Amari Cooper (2.10), and Keenan Allen (2.09). That said, I am going to be a buyer of Nelson as a second round pick. He’s a good bet in standard scoring leagues where yardage and touchdowns rule the day. Yes, injury and age are concerns but there are plenty of productive receivers Nelson’s age or older (Brandon Marshall, Larry Fitzgerald) and let’s be honest; injury is a risk for everyone and Nelson does not have an extensive or worrisome history (missed just 7 games in first 7 seasons). While it may take a game or two to get back the rhythm/chemistry between Nelson and Rodgers, the schedule is a goldmine, facing several soft defenses and several other games that should be shootouts, making the likelihood of “elite” games very likely. I actually think the risks associated with Nelson are fairly low, comparable to other receivers and securing him as your WR2 if you’re using a WR-heavy approach is about as good a start as you can get in fantasy drafts.

Kelvin Benjamin, CAR
(ADP 3.07)

Risk: There are several factors that stand out as “risks” by drafting Benjamin this year, although none of them seem major on their own. First, Benjamin missed all of the 2015 with a torn ACL so the possible difficulties of getting back into form and risk of re-injury is certainly something to consider. Second, although Benjamin should theoretically jump right into being the Panthers number one receiver, he was very inefficient his rookie year, catching just 50 percent of passes thrown his way, and much of his production came in garbage time. Finally, after an unsteady rookie year and another season away from football due to injury, Benjamin is being drafted as a high-end WR2 even though that appears to be his ceiling. With Cam Newton being a huge force near the goal line, in a run-first offense, Greg Olsen as a high-volume target, and a stingy defense that should dictate a conservative game plan, Benjamin’s upside seems capped.

Reward: Benjamin’s ranked No.6 in targets his rookie year and as we all know, Cam Newton took a huge step forward in 2015 and this, in turn, should trickle down to Benjamin being a more efficient receiver. His 9 touchdowns and just over a 1000 yards was not considered “polished” indicating room for growth. With a year to absorb the playbook and a full off-season to build chemistry with his QB, there is a strong likelihood of some progression, both mentally and physically for this young man. Other than Olsen, there are no legitimate receiving threats on this team and Benjamin should easily contend for the most targets on the team. Ted Ginn Jr., the Panthers second leading receiver last season managed 10 touchdowns on 96 targets, almost 50 less than Benjamin had his rookie season. With Cam getting beat up by opposing defenses, the Panthers may want to call less rushing plays for him inside the 5-yard line in order to protect their franchise quarterback and Benjamin should easily be the recipient of those opportunities. Benjamin’s touchdown upside alone should be enough to vault him into the top 15 of receivers this year.

Buy or Sell at ADP: I understand why there is excitement for Benjamin this season but I believe the hype has driven his price up too high, so I am a seller of Benjamin as a 3rd round pick. While I highlighted most of the risks, and I do believe there are merit to each one, the main reason I am a seller is I do not believe Benjamin’s skills fall short of other No.1 wideouts. Other than his size (6-5, 235), which of course is elite, Benjamin is neither fast nor quick, is prone to drops, and is nowhere near a polished route runner. Because of this, defenders are able to defend a lot of passes thrown his way, which leads to inefficiencies in his game. Bottom line: Benjamin is going to need a ton of targets and/or be very touchdown dependent to live up to his draft status. With his 2014 rookie target number looking like his absolute ceiling Benjamin would likely need to dramatically increase his efficiency or score 12-plus touchdowns to become a top 15 fantasy receiver. I’d prefer safer options like Brandin Cooks, T.Y. Hilton, Demaryius Thomas, and Sammy Watkins all being drafted around or after Benjamin in Round 3.

Doug Baldwin, SEA
(ADP 4.10)

Risk: After scoring a total of 15 touchdowns in his first four seasons combined, Baldwin scored 14 TDs in 2015, with 12 coming in the final eight games. Can you say “outlier”? Simply put, this pace is unsustainable especially for an unspectacular talent like Baldwin. Baldwin is a solid all-around receiver, able to block, run solid routes, with above average hands, but he does not possess traits that set him apart and allow him to dominate the game the way more traditional number one receivers do. Baldwin has average size, speed and athletic ability, and plays on one of the more run-heavy teams of the past decade. Add in second-year receiver Tyler Lockett, a more physically gifted receiver, and the probable return of Jimmy Graham, and Baldwin is likely to revert back to his 50-60 catch, 700 or so yards and 4-5 touchdown stat line that was becoming the norm in his career before lighting struck last season.

Reward: While most believe Baldwin won’t keep up the pace he was on last season, the facts remain; Baldwin did finish as a top 10 receiver and with almost no personnel changes around him, it is certainly possible that even with a little regression, Baldwin is a bargain in the late 4th round. With Marshawn Lynch calling it quits and after drafting three running backs this off-season it appears the team is searching for a player to keep their run-heavy philosophy going. With Russell Wilson emerging, improving, and gaining more trust from his coaches, this could be the year the Seahawks shift to a pass-heavy approach. And even if Lockett emerges as the big play receiver in the offense, it is very likely the chemistry Wilson and Baldwin have created will carry on making Baldwin the security blanket for one of the league’s most efficient passers.

Buy or Sell at ADP: While Baldwin is not going excite many fantasy owners, I truly believe he presents solid value in the late 4th/early 5th round. I’m buying. The expected regression is built into his ADP meaning he is actually becoming a value. Currently Baldwin is the 23rd receiver off the board, which is too much of an expected drop from finishing as the WR7 last year. While the Seattle backfield certainly has talent, I trust the coaches will put the ball in Russell Wilson’s hands and I can envision Baldwin being the Larry Fitzgerald, Eric Decker, or Jeremy Maclin of 2015 - consistent, safe, and occasionally explosive. If you are like me and normally draft two receivers and a running back in the first three rounds, Baldwin makes for an excellent third wideout on your fantasy team who should post consistent WR2 points each week and flirt with WR1 value when Seattle is forced to throw more than usual.

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