Risk: Charles returns from another ACL injury and combined with his age (soon to be 30) makes him a difficult selection in Round 2. Besides his knee woes and various other bumps, bruises, and sprains, Charles has over 1,600 career touches in eight seasons. He’s missed a total of 28 games and parts of several others. These factors make him ripe for a decline, if not a total breakdown sooner rather than later. With both Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware filling in nicely last season, the Chiefs will most likely play it safe with their most talented running back, limiting his touches in order to try and keep him fresh all season. While Charles will still be the lead-back in the offense, a loss of touches combined with the more than average injury risk should keep him out of the first two rounds of your draft.

Reward: Charles is a borderline Hall of Fame talent who has posted monster numbers in his career, including a ridiculous 2013 season (19 TDs and nearly 2,000 total yards). Charles owns an amazing 5.5 yards per carry career average and has never gone under 1,300 total yards in a year where he played at least 15 games as the starting RB. With an offense that is conservative and based on running the ball and controlling the clock, Charles should rack up a ton of touches and still has the burst to turn any play into a long touchdown. With question marks surrounding most running backs, Charles has proven to be one of the safer choices at the position as a workhorse back who can catch the ball, make big plays and is the focal part of a productive offense, backed up by a solid defense that rarely allows the team be on the wrong end of a blowout.

Buy or Sell at ADP: I love watching Charles and feel like talent-wise, he is one of the best backs in the past decade. In the early, or even mid-second round however, I am selling him this season. The injury history and the age factors are high on my list of concerns, as I believe he is the most fragile of the top running backs currently in the ADP top ten. While that alone may be reason to drop him down a notch, my main concern is the competition he will face for touches. Charles is still the most talented back on the Chiefs, however West and Ware produced when called upon and both were given contract extensions this off-season. The W-W combination was not much of a step down from Charles with Ware looking like he could be a real workhorse if given the opportunity. Between the two of them I could easily see 10-15 total touches a game, which reduces Charles’ upside. Bottom line: Charles will likely return RB2 value and have a few huge games, but the injury risk and the threat of reduced touches makes him a player to pass on early in Round 2.

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL
(ADP 1.09)

Risk: There is really only one reason why Elliott is being considered a risky pick in the first round this year; experience. Lack of experience to be exact. Elliot has exactly zero NFL snaps under his belt. By investing a first round pick on the rookie you are passing up on more experienced and proven players at the NFL level. It is not unheard of for a rookie running back to be productive, but it is also quite common for rookies, at any position, to totally bust. For every Todd Gurley there is a Melvin Gordon, and as much as we study players and think we know, nobody really knows how a player will adjust and how productive they will be in their first season. Most are assuming the Cowboys will give Elliott a workhorse role, but the offense has capable veterans (Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris) that have produced solid numbers in recent times. While drafting rookies is often exciting because of potential, usually rookies are priced at a discount because of this very notion. With Elliott you are paying full price and counting on him to produce at nothing less than a RB1 level. For someone that has yet to register a NFL carry, there is no bargain to be had.

Reward: Since Elliott has not carried the ball in a NFL game I look to recent history as a gauge to what he could do for us as fantasy owners in his first season. Todd Gurley, David Johnson were both rookies last season and both got little to no work in several games due to either injury or depth chart position, yet both finished as top ten backs in just about every scoring format. McFadden, a seven year veteran going into the 2015 season was thought to be washed up by many analysts, but racked up over 1,400 total yards for the Cowboys in his first season with the team. McFadden finished as a top ten fantasy RB in many formats despite not being the full-time starter until Week 7. While Elliott is obviously unique and any number of variables can affect the situation, I believe these three players present a very good benchmark for what Elliot could, and should do this season as long as he remains healthy. With better receiving skills than Gurley, a higher draft investment than Johnson, and fresher legs than McFadden, it is quite conceivable that Elliott out-produces all three this coming season, making him an excellent first round pick.

Buy or Sell at ADP: With fantasy owners always trying to find the “next big thing” it is often lost on us that sometimes getting someone to produce as expected is still great for our team. In this way, I am buying Elliott as a mid-to-late-first round pick. With the possible exceptions of Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and Odell Beckham Jr., the rest of the consensus first round picks (Hopkins, Gurley, Dez, Bell) all have various question marks associated with them. All things considered, even if the Cowboys play it conservative with their rookie running back, the end of the year stats should certainly place him within the top ten fantasy backs this season simply based on volume. He will get in a great situation given his offensive line, schedule, role and supporting cast. If you are apt to take a RB in the first two rounds Elliott should be an excellent, relatively safe target with upside to match.

Matt Jones: The rushing attack looked shaky (3.3 ypc) during the Redskins first pre-season game.

Matt Jones, WAS
(ADP 4.12)

Risk: Jones barely qualified as an RB3 last season (No.36) and basically had two huge fantasy games, both at home and one against the worst defensive team in the league (NO). The rest of the season Jones never hit double digit fantasy points in standard scoring. He averaged just 1.5 yards after contact, pitiful for a big back and his 3.4 yards per carry was below average for the league. With Kirk Cousins having a plethora of quality receivers and a suspect defense, the Redskins will most likely focus on the passing game and use third-down specialist Chris Johnson out of the backfield. With all these negatives against him it’s amazing he is being as drafted as high as he is, however the lack of serious competition has made Jones a darling in some fantasy circles. If last year is any indication Jones is being overvalued and could easily be a bust this season.

Reward: While Jones rookie year was unspectacular, the Redskins organization has obviously seen something special because they are handing him the starting job. Sometimes fantasy football is more about opportunity than skill and this could be one of those cases. Jones should have a clear path to 15-plus touches a game and thanks to a fairly friendly schedule, Jones could find himself in for some big statistical days. He may be inconsistent, but Jones has flashed some big play ability and could occasionally be a week-winner when the Skins play with a lead and shift to a more run-oriented game plan. With some expected growth in his second season Jones could use his size and expected volume alone could conceivably average 75-plus yards a week and perhaps steal a couple of Cousins rushing scores to become a reliable weekly option as a RB2.

Buy or Sell at ADP: With little competition for his job, Jones has appeal but after showing next to nothing last season, his draft cost is simply too high. I’m selling. Running back is arguably the most replaceable position in football and there is no way the team continues to march Jones out every week if he doesn’t improve his play early in the season. Watching Redskins games last year you can count on one hand the amount of times Jones flashed anything special. My best prediction is Jones struggles for the first few games and the backfield becomes a committee by Week 5, making Jones as nothing more than a FLEX play most weeks. In the area he is being drafted I much prefer Jeremy Hill, Donte Moncrief, and Michael Floyd. I would even wait a round or two and take Duke Johnson or Frank Gore at the running backs position.

Wide Receivers