I’ve been writing this article for several
years now and while I have had some nice hits and some memorable
misses, the main thing I’ve noticed over the years is it is
getting harder and harder to find sleepers. I’ll even go as
far as to say the fantasy football sleeper is dead. Nowadays even
your average owner that plays in just home or work leagues seems
to know the full depth chart of every team in the NFL. With podcasts,
websites, twitter updates, and constant media attention, fantasy
football has become so big that there are very few, if any, hidden
gems anymore.
I don’t mean to sound like a downer though, overall it is
a great thing, as it makes leagues more competitive and gives us
more to discuss and strategize upon. So while this article is still
technically called “deep sleepers” it’s centered
on players that could easily outperform their ADP. Most of the players
are going in round 12 or later and may not even be drafted in the
majority of 12-team leagues.
Justice Hill's ability to catch the ball
makes him a nice late-round target in your fantasy draft.
One of the most interesting, and perhaps difficult teams to project
this year is the Baltimore Ravens. We don’t know for sure how
much Lamar Jackson
will progress as a passer and it’s a mystery who (if anybody)
will step up in the receiving game. What we do know for sure is
the Ravens will run the ball A LOT. They already had the most
rush attempts in the league last year (547) and there is little
reason to believe they won't be top 5 again this season.
To determine how valuable a guy like Justice Hill could be let’s
do a little math experiment. Let’s say the Ravens attempt 525
rushes this year. Mark
Ingram obviously should take the bulk of these carries so
let’s say we give him a healthy 250 carries, which would be top
5 in the league most years. We obviously have to give Lamar Jackson
a big dose as well, so let’s say 160, or 10 per game assuming
he plays all 16. This leaves a little over 100 carries spread
out among the remaining RBs on the roster which is OK but not
enough to be fantasy relevant unless it comes along with high
efficiency.
So why is Hill high on my list as a sleeper to target? First of
all these projections are probably the best (or worst) case scenario.
Ingram is a solid back but he is also going to be turning 30 this
season, has a checkered injury history, and a lot of touches on
his resume. Ingram has also played some of his best ball as a
compliment runner so the Ravens should want to keep him fresh
by using multiple options.
In the case of Jackson, would anyone be surprised if he missed
a few games given his style of play? I know it’s always risky
to predict injuries but the combo of a 30 year-old back and a
running quarterback doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in health.
Even if the injury situation doesn’t work out in Hill’s favor,
he can make his mark in other ways, primarily as a receiver, not
only on 3rd downs, but lining up as a receiver on pass plays as
well. As a sophomore, Hill caught 31 passes in 13 games and profiles
as an excellent receiver at the next level, often being compared
to Reggie Bush. As an ultra-athlete, Hill crushed the combine
(4.4 40, 40 inch vertical) and even put up 21 reps on the bench
despite being undersized. With the Ravens lacking established
receivers and Jackson struggling to throw downfield, short passes,
screens, and check-downs could easily be a big part of this offense
and Hill could be a primary target. With one of the easier schedules
on their plate and an offense centered around the run game, Hill
is in a great spot as a star-in-waiting that can be had in the
mid-13th round in standard and late 12th in PPR leagues. With
a chance to have standalone value and an even better chance to
be one of the top handcuffs, I love Hill as a late-round sleeper
this year.
One of my favorite groups of players to look at when trying to
identify sleepers and potential breakout players is second-year
wide receivers that were highly touted but did not do much in
their rookie season. In this case, Gallup fits the bill perfectly,
as he was a third-round pick by the Cowboys but had a very quiet
year, finishing with a 33/507/2 line while starting eight games.
Gallup is going very late in drafts due to the presence of Amari Cooper and the run-heavy gameplan in Dallas. Obviously nobody
in their right mind will tell you Gallup will surpass Cooper as
the team’s top receiver; however he doesn’t have to,
as Gallup was much more efficient and productive after Cooper
joined the team. Gallup does not have the physical/athletic profile
to be an alpha-dog receiver but operating behind such a player
(like Cooper) who draws the defensive attention, Gallup will have
easier matchups that he can exploit on a weekly basis. With the
Cowboys second highest targeted receiver (Cole Beasley) gone,
there should be more targets available and Gallup should easily
fill that second receiver role.
As for being a run-heavy team, that is a fair description but
it is not like Dallas was dead last in passing. There were actually
11 teams that passed less than the Cowboys last year and if anything
I’d expect a few more passes with the development and the
trust of Dak building. Along with the respect that Cooper demands,
the same can be said about Zeke and the run game, so there will
be very little defensive attention on Gallup.
The final thing that excites me about Gallup is the change in
offensive coordinators from Scott Linehan, who was often conservative
and predictable, to Kellen Moore who is bringing more innovative
concepts to the Cowboys offense.
While Gallup might not have the upside to be a WR1 or maybe not
even a WR2, he is being drafted as a WR6 which doesn’t make
a lot of sense to me. Gallup is as an integral piece and an up
and coming talent on an efficient and possibly (from time to time)
even explosive offense where he should have constant favorable
matchups. I’ll gladly take Gallup this year as a WR5 or
6 knowing he has WR3 upside.
The Dolphins are not exactly a team that screams excitement but
Wilson does scream extreme fantasy value. Wilson is coming off
a hip injury but has avoided the PUP list and looks to be a full-go
for the preseason. Wilson was on his way to a breakout season
last year, posting the best yards after catch (YAC) as well as
the highest forced missed tackle rate of any receiver with a minimum
of 25 receptions. Wilson showed off his blazing speed, recording
the 3rd fastest on-field speed last year (21.74 mph), behind only
Tyreek Hill and ranked among the top 5 in fantasy points per target.
Unfortunately Wilson got hurt and was unable to fulfill his breakout,
but the fact that he was so efficient should give us confidence
that the best is yet to come.
Just barely 27, Wilson is still in the prime of his career on
a team that should have to throw a lot and doesn’t have
a bona fide star, or even legitimate reliable receiver on the
roster. In addition, Wilson plays the slot almost exclusively
and Ryan Fitzpatrick, the expected starter, targets the slot at
a higher rate than any quarterback in the past 8 years (600 minimum
attempts).
Given this, you would think Wilson was at least getting drafted
in most leagues, but you would be wrong. The crazier thing to
me is that both Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker are both being
drafted despite being less efficient and in Parker’s case,
a bust. While I do not think any Dolphins player is going to be
a stud this season, Wilson stands out to me as someone who can
be very consistent with some occasional big games thanks to his
after-the-catch ability.
As a late-round flyer or even waiver wire pick up you could do
much worse than a receiver that was on his way to a top 40 WR
season last year whose situation has only improved.
Perriman was a first round draft pick by the Ravens just four
years ago but quickly received the bust label after losing his
first year to injury and subsequently catching just 43 balls in
27 games as a Raven. After being released, the Browns picked him
up last season and Perriman flashed in spurts (21.3 ypc) but not
enough to garner fantasy attention as shown by his current ADP
of undrafted in 15 round drafts. Now, still just 26 years old
and a member of the Bucs, Perriman looks to rebound and salvage
his career on his third NFL team in four years.
The reasons I like Perriman are plenty and start with being a
member of what easily could be the most pass-heavy attack in the
NFL. The Bucs were already the 4th most pass-heavy attack last
season and they brought in Bruce Arians as head coach. Considering
the lack of talent at the RB position and a terrible defense,
it would be no surprise to see the Bucs at the top of the passing
attempts category by year’s end.
Currently Perriman is penciled in as the Bucs third receiver and
while I do not see him passing Chris Godwin or Mike Evans, there
is room for Perriman to make an impact. The Bucs lost 179 targets
from last year with the departures of Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson, and while Godwin’s targets will likely increase
and O.J. Howard’s should as well, there is still plenty
more to go around. Perriman could easily see 70+ targets if healthy.
With a similar skill set to Jackson, Perriman could fill the void
that Jackson left all the while being six years younger and about
4 inches taller with similar raw speed. Perriman might just be
a one-trick pony but the pony could eat in this offense. If Godwin
or Evans were to miss any time Perriman’s value would rise even
higher and could even rise to WR2 status for a limited time. The
bottom line with Perriman is he failed as an alpha-dog receiver
but obviously has the raw talent to be successful. He just needs
to find his role and this situation seems to be a perfect fit.
Tight End is a position where I love to find sleepers because,
let’s be honest, unless you invest an early round pick in
one of the big three, or strongly believe in the next small tier
of up-and-comers, you are going to be most likely streaming.
Swaim, for those of you who haven't heard of him (I don’t
blame you!) is going into his 5th season and his first with the
Jaguars, after spending his first four in Dallas. Swaim was drafted
in the 7th round in 2015 and was a decent but not an exciting
prospect, with barely above average measurables and production.
So why should you care about this guy? First off, tight end is
traditionally a position that takes a while to develop and going
into his 5th season, Swaim finally showed signs of being a decent
receiver last year, with 26 receptions in 9 games last season
after catching just 9 passes total his first three years.
Secondly, Swaim chose to go to the Jaguars and sounds like a guy
who made his decision to go there based on playing with Nick Foles
and his propensity to throw to tight ends. While the Jaguars did
draft Josh Oliver, he is a bit of a raw prospect and Swaim is
a much better blocker so should be the starter in Week 1.
The Jaguars are still likely a run-first team but with Foles behind
center they should also throw more effectively as well. With no
star receivers that demand targets, the ball should be spread
around and Swaim may be the team’s best red-zone threat
at 6’4’’ 250.
While Swaim isn't a threat to the elite at the position, he could
easily finish as a top 15 tight end but can be had for free on
the waiver wire in most drafts. I’d rather take a chance
on a guy like Swaim for free than spend a mid-round pick on the
position that you will most likely be dropping after a few weeks
anyway.
