At the time of writing Watson has been suspended six games by
the arbitrator. Now we await the league to decide on whether or
not to appeal the arbitrator's decision with commissioner Roger
Goodell acting as the final judge. So, it’s still anyone’s
guess whether Watson will see the field this season, and if he
does, for how long. Clearly his fantasy value depends on how many
starts he makes, so for purposes of this outlook, let’s
work on the assumption he misses half the season.
Watson was a top-5 QB in the last two seasons he played, and
has essentially been a top fantasy option in every game he’s
been a starter in the NFL. He excelled with much lesser talent
and coaching around him when he was in Houston, so the move to
Cleveland is an upgrade in every way. With the way NFL athletes
train, and the time he’s been able to put into this offseason,
rustiness and system comfort are the least of my concerns. He
will be prepared to play when the time comes. Watson’s value
comes solely in the form of how many starts he can make for you
in the fantasy season. He’s worth a significant draft investment
if he can play 12+ games, but much less if it’s 8 or less.
As for Brissett, the man Cleveland turns to if/when Watson is
suspended? Steer clear. In two seasons as a near full-time starter,
Brissett couldn’t reach 20 passing touchdowns, barely completed
60% of his passes, and has demonstrated after 6 years in the league
that he’s a back-up level talent at the very best. Not exactly
a ringing fantasy endorsement.
With an ideal mix of balance, speed, and power, Chubb is the
best natural runner in the NFL and reminds me a lot of former
Ravens running back Jamal Lewis. He’s averaged more than 5 yards-per-carry
in his career, and has scored 39 total touchdowns in four seasons.
In only 14 games last year he surpassed 1,200 yards rushing and
scored 9 touchdowns. Only the lack of quality work in the passing
game keeps him out the top-5. Catching passes has never been a
part of Chubbs' game, even going back to college where he only
caught 31 passes in 47 games with the Dawgs, so he won’t magically
become a dual threat. Even the loss of Kareem Hunt for nine games
last season didn’t add to his role as a receiver.
This Cleveland offense looks monumentally different depending
who the quarterback is, but Chubbs' role as the ground and pound
element is cemented. It’s a good bet he’ll see more
carries in games with Brissett under center, and have better lanes
to run in when and if Watson returns, so he’ll produce in
either scenario, and still should be treated as a top tier option
in standard leagues, and a low-end RB1 in PPR leagues.
Last season was one Kareem Hunt would like to forget. Leg and
ankle injuries cost him nine games, and Hunt enters 2022 looking
to rebound on the final year of his deal. Despite missing over
half the season, Hunt did manage to score 5 touchdowns, and boasted
a respectable 10.8 standard points-per-game average. Cleveland
will be desperate to lean on Chubb and Hunt as a 1-2 punch while
Brissett is under center, something that greatly factored into
their success during their run to the AFC title game two seasons
ago. In 2020 Hunt was a viable RB2 even playing second fiddle
to Chubb, and this Kevin Stefansky offense is going to look to
continue to ride their running back tandem for as much, and as
long as they can. Hunt has a steady and predictable role in the
offense, and will be hungry to prove he’s worth a lucrative
contract in free agency.
The Cleveland passing game was an absolute mess last season in
so many ways. Injuries, inconsistency, and roster turmoil doomed
the receiver unit on the field, and in fantasy. Not a single Browns’
receiver cracked the top-50 in any format, so with that the Browns
made a deal for Amari Cooper to help stabilize a raw, unproven
group of pass catchers. Since coming into the league in 2015,
Cooper has averaged over 115 targets, 73 catches, and 1,000 yards
a season to go along with 44 touchdowns.
The former Cowboy and Raider has been incredibly consistent as
a high end WR2 in all formats since entering the NFL, but he comes
to his new team off a disappointing final season with Dallas,
and smack dab in the middle of a quarterback quagmire. Brissett
is a huge downgrade in talent from Dak Prescott, and there just
isn’t any other receiver currently on this roster that defenses
have to respect. Add in the fact that Cooper always seems to be
in the training room (to be fair he’s only missed five games in
his career), and I think he’s due for a demotion to mid-tier WR3
territory. The caveat here is Watson’s potential return. If you
can’t draft Cooper at value, make him a priority trade target
at the deadline.
With Landry hurt, and OBJ shown the door, Peoples-Jones, the 2020
6th rounder from Michigan was thrust into a role he was woefully
underprepared for. In his two seasons as a pro, DPJ has shown
to be a one-dimensional deep play threat. His iffy route running
and inconsistent hands simply weren’t up to the task of
carrying the passing game. With both Landy and OBJ gone, Peoples-Jones
now finds himself as the team’s No.2 receiver, hoping to
be enough of a threat to take some heat off Amari Cooper. From
top to bottom this is one of the most inexperienced receiving
corps in the league, and the offense with anyone else other than
Watson under center, just won’t be able to support a 2nd
fantasy receiver.
After almost being cast off the roster as recently as last offseason,
Cleveland inked Njoku to an eye-popping contract that made him
the 5th highest paid tight end in the NFL. Lofty numbers for a
player that has certainly been more bark than bite over his first
five seasons. While he’s flashed at times, Njoku has been
hard pressed to even sniff the numbers he put up in his 2nd season
when he finished with a 56-639-4 line on 88 targets. Even with
the team desperate for playmakers last year, Njoku couldn’t
reach 40 yards in any game past week 5. The Browns certainly aren’t
paying Njoku for past production, so they must know something
we don’t. With Watson under center, Njoku makes for a sneaky
TE1 play, without, he might be barely rosterable, as the talent
just hasn’t been able to overcome mediocre quarterback play.
