Last Month's Question: Which players
are most overpriced in 2016?
In my column for July,
I reviewed players at the four primary skill positions (QB,
RB, WR, and TE) that I expect to be overpriced in 2016 drafts/auctions.
I received fair criticism from a reader named Mike, who challenged
my assumption that Martellus
Bennett is likely to cut into Rob
Gronkowski's production in New England. Mike pointed out
that Gronk's best year was 2011, when Aaron Hernandez played
14 games—so there's a good case to be made that Gronkowski only
improves when he shares the field with another elite
tight end.
Mike made a strong point in Gronkowski's favor, but the suspension
of Tom
Brady for the first four weeks of the season counts as an
even stronger point against the NFL top TE. Last year, I benefited
when Brady got an unexpected, last-minute reprieve from his
suspension. This year, knowing what we know now, I doubt I'm
alone in thinking that same kind of Brady magic will have to
repeat itself for Gronkowski to finish as the #1 fantasy TE.
Unsurprisingly, Jim (the reader who challenged me to name the
4 players I considered most overpriced) had four candidates
of his own in mind. I have to give him props for challenging
me directly on two players I'm on record as targeting in drafts
this year (David
Johnson and Jordan
Reed), but here's how he reached his conclusions about which
players he considers most overpriced:
QB Russell
Wilson
Ok, my first choice would've been Cam
Newton. I am right there with you on your thoughts on him.
But for the sake of not mimicking your list I will make a case
for Wilson. In my support of Jimmy Graham in last month's article
I alluded to Wilson having to throw more in 2016. However, I
think that defenses are going to be able to focus more on Wilson
without Lynch commanding so much attention, which will likely
cause a negative impact on Wilson's numbers overall. I still
think he is a stud, but until I see him do it without Lynch
back there making it a lot easier, for a whole season, I will
hope he falls in drafts to me. I won't be reaching for him though.
There are too many good QBs to be reaching for any QB.
RB David
Johnson
I think Johnson is going to be a very good RB this year. I also
think there is a difference between very good and great. I have
heard of people taking him number 1 overall this year and I
wonder if that's a prisoner-of-the-moment (albeit the moments
from the end of last season) type thing. There is a little voice
in my head saying "fresh legs." Fantasy savvy vets have seen
it time and again. A young guy comes in midseason and tears
it up. The next preseason that guy is climbing the ranks faster
than Joey Chestnut chowing down on a hot dog and water-drenched
bun. Anyhow, I have to take into account that the Cardinals
still play a tough schedule, and have a ton of options in the
passing game, as well as Chris
Johnson and Andre
Ellington to take the load off of David Johnson. He might
still wind up as a RB1 . . . but not the RB1.
WR Dez
Bryant
As with all the players on this list, Dez is a great talent
and I expect him to do in 2016 what he has proven he can do
in the past (i.e. play well when both he and Tony
Romo are healthy). I just have very little confidence in
that scenario occurring for the entire 2016 season. This isn't
me trying to rip on either one of them. This is just me pointing
out that a lot of Bryant's value lays in the health of not only
himself but in that of his aging and increasingly injury-prone
QB. WRs with leg injuries, and QBs with arm/torso issues don't
make for a good combo to bank on. And note that I didn't even
mention Ezekiel
Elliott getting a lot of red zone work that might cut into
Bryant's TDs . . . until now. I've seen Dez go regularly as
the 5th WR overall. I'd be dropping him down closer to 9th.
TE Jordan
Reed
This guy is a flat out nightmare for defenses. His ability to
get wide open is impressive. His athletic ability is scary good.
If I am facing him in any week I am nervous. I am also nervous
if I am owning him. His injury history is a bit concerning,
and there are a lot of underrated options in the Washington
passing game. I think a regression in TDs and yards is coming
this year for Reed. Cousins really caught fire midseason of
last year. If he can stay hot in 2016 and Reed stays healthy,
he could challenge Gronk (without Brady for 4 games) for top
TE this year. That is a high ceiling and a lot of people are
buying into the hype. I will let others draft him as the 2nd
or 3rd TE overall and get my TEs much, much later than Reed.
Make of Jim's comments what you will, but I think he deserves
a round of applause for putting so much thought and care into
his own assessment of the questions I examined. I especially
like the little touches of fine writing that he put into his
response (such as pointing out that Jordan Reed should make
both opposing defenses and his own fantasy owners nervous).
This month's question: Are fantasy
leagues improved by dropping the kicker position to make room
for a second QB?
Has your league ditched Steven Hauschka
and the rest of his kind for the quarterback position?
The idea of dropping kickers for a second QB received a fair amount
of attention from various fantasy commentators during this offseason.
The argument is easy to follow and almost instantly compelling:
1) Fantasy kickers are pretty much a crapshoot.
There doesn't appear to be any amount of analysis or research that
would enable FFers to predict which kickers are likely to finish
3rd-5th as compared to 8th-10th in a given week.
2) Fantasy kickers are even more pointless than
a crapshoot because the difference between the 5th- and 10th-best
kickers doesn't usually amount to much. So why bother?
3) In single-QB leagues, there are almost always
valuable QBs available on the waiver wire.
4) The difference between the 3rd-5th as compared
to the 8th-10th QBs available on the waiver wire in your league
is something that analysis and research could predict with reasonable
accuracy.
5) Even more importantly, the difference between
the 5th- and 10th-best QBs available on the waiver wire is likely
to be substantial. So why not incorporate that meaningful difference
into your league?
6) In standard leagues, it's always hard to find
good RBs and WRs on the waiver wire in the middle of the season.
That's part of the challenge. Why not structure leagues so that
finding good QBs midseason is also a challenge?
7) Who cares about kickers anyway?
I believe that Heath Cummings of CBS' Fantasy Football Today
(no connection to FFToday) is the most passionate proponent
of this argument—and I suspect that a few fantasy leagues out
there have heeded his advice.
But even though I have participated in 2-QB leagues, those leagues
also made room for kickers. I've never been involved with a
standard league that eliminated kickers specifically to make
room for a second QB in each owner's lineup.
I hope to get a testimonial or two from FFers whose leagues
have undergone such a transition. When did you make the change?
What pushed you over the edge on the kicker question? Were there
any problems associated with the transition? And how did the
2-QB format go over with owners who were accustomed to having
competent QBs available on the waiver wire? Was the response
positive, negative, or mixed?
If you belong to a league that has made (or is contemplating) such
a change, please respond in the comments section below or by emailing
me with your take.
One of the comments below will have nothing to do with the kicker/QB
question. It's an advertisement for JAFFL, the mega-league in which
I have participated since the late '90s. JAFFL aggregates multiple
12-team leagues (each with their own drafts/auctions) into an extensive
playoff scenario. There were three conferences of 12 teams each
last year, so the championship went to the best team out of 36 (rather
than the best team out of 12). I mention JAFFL partly because the
commissioner wants to add another conference in 2016—and partly
because it gives me an opportunity to repeat that I was the champion
in 2015 (thank you, Devonta
Freeman!). Mike Davis has been writing about
fantasy football since 1999--and playing video games even longer
than that. His latest novel (concerning a gamer who gets trapped
inside Nethack after eating too many shrooms) can
be found here.
