My June column
focused on four players (QB/RB/WR/TE) that I expect to have strong
rebound performances in 2016. Plenty of readers (including Mike
Krueger himself, who continues to worry about Arian
Foster's health) took issue with one or two of my selections,
but Jim fired back with a complete list of his own top rebound
selections:
A lot of people seem to have undervalued Luck in different mock
draft formats I have done so far this offseason. I think he is
due for the classic definition of a rebound season. Indy is showing
steady improvement along the offensilve line and other teams in
the AFC South have finally made upgrades on offense. That could
lead to some more shootouts—meaning Luck could approach career
numbers across the board if he can stay healthy, which up until
last season was not a question with him.
If Chip Kelly's short tenure as coach in Philly is any indicator
of what he plans to do in SF, then Carlos Hyde is going to be
used a ton this year. He won't need to come off the field in the
quick play offense. His Week 1 tease from last season (168 yds,
2TDs) could be repeated several times in 2016. The SF QB, whoever
that turns out to be, won't have much else to throw to, so I expect
Hyde to crush his previous career high in receptions (12). 2016
may be more than a rebound for Hyde. It could easily be a slam
dunk, get-the-foul-call, and sink-the-free-throw season for him.
Somehow, a guy who had done nothing but produce solid PPR numbers
for two seasons and then finally seemed to figure out how to
find the end zone last year is still being drafted as a low-end
WR2. Tom
Brady may miss the first four games, and that will probably
keep Edelman's stock low, but I suspect that Edelman's usage
in those games will be as heavy as ever. I expect Edelman's
numbers this year to resemble or surpass the peak seasons of
Wes
Welker's time in NE. The chemistry with Brady and knowledge
of the system are undeniably huge assets for this smaller receiver.
I have to wonder if there is something else going on with Graham
that I don't know about. I know that he is recovering from a
serious injury and that he did not exactly light the world on
fire in his time on the field in 2015. But even though I hate
to resort to this argument, we're talking about Jimmy Graham
here. If I am getting Graham at backup TE prices and it makes
me happy. With Lynch gone and Rawls returning from his own serious
injury, there is going to be a rise in Wilson attempts this
year. I anticipate he will turn a lot of those extra looks towards
the mismatch-waiting-to-happen that is Graham.
Jim went on to challenge me to produce a column concerning the
most "overhyped/overpriced" players of 2016—probably because
he's ready to send me a list of his own four candidates as soon
as I do.
Well Jim, your challenge has been accepted. These are the players
at the four most important skill positions that probably won't
be on my fantasy team in 2016. To be clear, I don't expect any
of these guys to bust. I think they will all be significant
fantasy contributors throughout the season—but in every case
there are cheaper alternatives that I expect to outperform them.
Before the 2015 season, few experts projected Newton to finish
as the best fantasy QB in the league—but that didn't stop him.
Before the 2016 season, almost everyone expects Newton to finish
the season as the best fantasy QB in the league—but that doesn't
clinch things for him. Stellar QBs get a lot of attention from
opposing defenses, which is why it's so hard for anyone to finish
as the top QB (from a fantasy perspective at least) two seasons
in a row. If I'm going to blow an early draft pick on a QB (which
I almost certainly won't), then I'll only do so if I think the
QB in question is extremely likely to finish the season as the
top dog at his position. We've seen all the usual suspects accomplish
that feat in recent years (Drew
Brees in 2012, Peyton Manning in 2013, Andrew Luck in 2014,
and Cam Newton in 2015), and I expect the revolving door to
continue moving in 2016. With WR Jordy
Nelson returning to the lineup in Green Bay, my money is
on Aaron
Rodgers to edge out Newton for the No.1 QB spot this year.
Thinking about taking a running back in
the first round? Go for one that's active in the passing game.
I have no doubt that Gurley will be a monster in 2016. With Jeff
Fisher as his head coach, it's easy to see why so many folks expect
Gurley to look like the Eddie George of the late '90s or the Chris
Johnson of 2009. The main problem I have with this argument is that
the passing game has become far more important and productive in
the NFL than it was in 1999 or 2009. Don't lose sight of the fact
that Gurley finished the 2015 season with 21 catches (less than
2 per game) for a grand total of 188 yards and zero TDs. Sure, I
want Gurley (with his 1106 rushing yards and 10 TDs as a rookie)
on my team, but there are several other RBs that I want more (thanks
to their substantial involvement in the passing game), such as David
Johnson, Lamar
Miller, Le'Veon
Bell, and Jamaal
Charles.
Again, this is not meant to be a knock on Jeffery; he's a beast.
But it's unrealistic for people to assume that since his calf and
hamstring problems appear to be behind him, he's ready to return
to his 2014 form. In 2014, Jeffery was one fabulous cog in a dazzling
Bears offensive machine that included Matt
Forte, Brandon
Marshall, and Martellus
Bennett. He definitely benefited from the synergy generated
by that kind of concentrated talent and athleticism. Even if he
is as good in 2016 as he was two years ago, the people surrounding
him (Jeremy
Langford, Zach
Miller, and rookie WR Kevin
White) are unlikely to present the same kinds of challenges
to defenses that they faced vs. the Bears in 2014. You can have
Jeffery if you want; I'll take any of the five WRs currently projected
by FFToday to finish just behind him instead (Brandon
Marshall, Mike
Evans, T.Y.
Hilton, Amari
Cooper, or Brandin
Cooks).
Since I indicated in June that I expect Martellus
Bennett to be a major contributor in New England this year,
it shouldn't surprise anyone that I also expect Gronkowski's production
to decrease. There's no way Gronk doesn't finish as a top-5 TE,
but it won't surprise me to see Bennett cut deeply enough into his
stats to propel Washington's Jordan
Reed to the number one position for TEs. It's hard for me to
imagine a draft/auction scenario that would result in my pulling
the trigger on Gronk—since I can get Reed so much more cheaply. Mike Davis has been writing about
fantasy football since 1999--and playing video games even longer
than that. His latest novel (concerning a gamer who gets trapped
inside Nethack after eating too many shrooms) can
be found here.
