There aren’t many players who are hotter than 49ers tight
end George Kittle. Kittle has been electric down the stretch this
season and after a down game against the Seahawks in the Wild
Card round, he got right back into elite fantasy production this
past week with a five-catch, 95-yard performance against the Cowboys
that included one of the best circus catches we’ve seen
this year. Kittle has averaged just 5.5 targets per game over
his past seven contests and while that number doesn’t sound
particularly high, he’s still been able to produce huge
numbers, including nearly 400 yards and seven touchdowns over
that stretch. He now faces a Philadelphia defense that has allowed
nearly 65 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends over
their final six games and they didn’t even face a top-level
tight end during that stretch.
For the 49ers to win this game they’re likely going to
need a different strategy than what worked against the Cowboys
when they simply pounded the ball between the tackles. We know
that Kittle and McCaffrey allow tremendous flexibility which is
why they should be priorities in the San Francisco offense this
week, but the other player that will likely need to have a big
game in order for the 49ers to walk away with a win is Deebo Samuel.
Samuel missed three of the 49ers’ final four games of the
regular season and was used sparingly in Week 18, but he returned
with fire in the playoffs. He’s been targeted a team-high
16 times over San Francisco’s two playoff games while adding
an additional seven carries. He’s compiled 221 total yards
in the playoffs and should be in line for a number of manufactured
touches as the 49ers attempt to keep up on the scoreboard against
the high-powered Eagles offense.
Brock Purdy has been one of the best stories of this NFL season,
but when you look at the quarterback landscape of the remaining
four teams, his name sticks out like a sore thumb against the
likes of Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts—all of whom
have to be in the running for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award.
Purdy has, however, been able to put up some pretty decent fantasy
numbers, albeit mostly against subpar defenses. He did struggle
this past week against a Cowboys defense that can create pressure.
It was the first time he had started a game and failed to throw
multiple touchdowns. In fact, he didn’t even throw a single touchdown
against Dallas. He may suffer a similar fate this weekend as he
faces an excellent Philadelphia defense that was excellent down
the stretch of the regular season. Only two quarterbacks reached
even 170 passing yards against the Eagles over their final seven
contests and Daniel Jones threw for just 135 yards against them
this past week in their first playoff game. Purdy has been a nice
story and it’s certainly not written in stone that he takes a
loss here, but this is a bad game to be looking at Purdy for fantasy
production.
Similar to Purdy, top wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk could also
be in for a tough afternoon against the Eagles. Philadelphia shut
down opposing wideouts down the stretch. Only one wide receiver—CeeDee
Lamb in Week 16—has reached even 80 yards receiving against
the Eagles over their past seven games, including the playoffs.
That doesn’t bode well for Aiyuk who has been struggling
as of late. He did light up the Raiders with nine receptions on
12 targets back in Week 16, but otherwise, his usage has been
limited. Besides that game against the Raiders, Aiyuk has failed
to exceed five receptions in a single game since back in Week
9. He’s been able to reach the end zone a few times so he
hasn’t been a complete fantasy disaster, but this matchup
is just way too difficult for fantasy managers to be relying on
him in this one.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
This past week’s game against the Giants was the first
time that A.J. Brown was held to under 70 yards receiving since
Week 11, so fantasy managers should be confident that it was just
a blip on the radar. Meanwhile, his teammate DeVonta Smith continues
to produce huge numbers and is averaging over 88 receiving yards
per game over his past seven contests. That includes a six-reception
game this past week against the Giants. Smith hasn’t seen
fewer than eight targets in a game since all the way back in Week
9 and he now faces a 49ers defense that was the sixth-best matchup
for opposing wide receivers throughout the regular season. San
Francisco’s defense is excellent overall, but they can be
taken advantage of on the perimeter so look for Philadelphia to
test that with their high-level wide receiver duo.
We were all a bit worried that Jalen Hurts was not fully healthy
heading into this past week’s game, but he seemed to at least
answer some of those concerns with a nine-carry, 34-yard rushing
performance that included a touchdown, to go along with a pair
of touchdowns through the air. His passing numbers weren’t overly
impressive, but the game against the Giants was pretty much over
by midway through the second quarter, so there wasn’t much of
a reason to be concerned. The Eagles quarterback now has an extremely
difficult matchup against a high-pressure 49ers defense that held
him and the Philadelphia offense to just 11 points the last time
they squared off back in Week 2 of the 2021 season. A lot has
changed since then, of course, but what should really be considered
is that despite struggling to produce through the air in that
contest, Hurts was able to run the ball effectively against San
Francisco as he carried the ball 10 times for 82 yards and a touchdown.
The 49ers were able to avoid most of the league’s top rushing
quarterbacks this season, but Marcus Mariota did rush for 50 yards
and a touchdown against them. They also struggled to contain rushing
quarterbacks on the ground during the 2021 season. The 49ers'
edge rushers are almost certainly going to put plenty of pressure
on Hurts which is likely to lead to some scrambles from Hurts
that turn into decent production on the ground. It could, however,
also mean a lower-scoring game than we’re used to from Philadelphia
overall.
The Eagles dominated the Giants even more than most of us expected
that they would in the Divisional Round, which meant an even heavier
rushing attack than usual. While Miles Sanders’ 17 carries for
90 yards were decent enough, he continued to be a non-factor in
the passing game while splitting touches with Boston Scott and
Kenneth Gainwell, who out-produced him on the ground with 112
rushing yards. It’s tough to really gain much information from
that contest given that the game script was so positive in Philadelphia’s
favor, but one thing’s for certain—we shouldn’t expect that kind
of production from this backfield again. San Francisco has been
the league’s best defense against opposing running backs this
season and they are yet to allow a single rushing touchdown to
the position yet this season. This is a situation you’ll want
to avoid for fantasy.
Boyd has been quiet thus far in the playoffs, posting four catches
for 49 yards in the first two games. It’s a continuation
of a late-season fade that saw the veteran top 50 yards in a game
just twice over his final 11 outings. The best of the bunch came
versus Kansas City, however, when he caught four passes for 60
yards to finish second to Chase in receiving. We know that Chase
and Higgins will draw most of the attention from the Chiefs secondary,
leaving Boyd with some opportunities to make plays.
While Hurst (calf) had a nice game against the Bills, hauling
in five passes for 59 yards and a score (and giving him a 9-104-1
line for the playoffs), he picked up a calf injury during the
game and has been limited at practice this week. Sure, it could
be little more than a precautionary move, but the offseason addition
had one of his quietest games of the season back on Dec. 4 when
he managed only a dozen yards on two receptions against the Chiefs.
Put those two elements together, and Hurst offers a low floor
to go with a decent ceiling.
Fade: N/A
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Update: Travis Kelce (back)
was added to the injury report after practice on Friday. Mahomes
is not listed.
We know Mahomes is going to play. What we don’t know is
how effective he’ll be or what kind of adjustments will
be made to account for limited mobility. Based on what we saw
against Jacksonville, the answer could be more handoffs and more
short passes, which should benefit the tandem of Pacheco (101
total yards) and McKinnon (25 yards on 11 carries). Both were
effective in the December meeting with Cincinnati where the rookie
accounted for 82 total yards and a TD while McKinnon checked in
with 60 yards and a score. Look for KC’s backfield to be
featured this Sunday.
Normally, Mahomes would be a total no-brainer. Even if he were
playing through injury in Week 12 or something, you’d want
him in your lineup. When you’re talking a one-week play,
though, you may not be getting an adequate return on investment
with the presumptive MVP. Mahomes will play through a high ankle
sprain, which is usually a multi-week injury, and he’s sure
to have his ability to extend plays compromised. He threw for
a modest 223 yards and just one score versus Cincinnati in December,
and he managed 195 yards against Jacksonville last weekend. Other
than Brock Purdy, Mahomes looks to be the riskiest QB option on
the board.
After seemingly hitting his stride within the offense, Smith-Schuster
has gone largely silent during the last two-plus months. Over
his last nine games, the former Steeler has topped 40 yards in
a game just twice, and those efforts came against punching bags
Houston and Denver. He’s posted two catches in three consecutive
games, and his 3-35-0 line against the Bengals in Week 13 doesn’t
move the needle. Add Mahomes’ injury on top of it and it's
difficult to envision a big day from Smith-Schuster.
