While his overall regular season numbers weren't outstanding
compared to some other rookies, Xavier Worthy has really stepped
up in the second half of the season. He's still yet to reach 100
yards receiving in a game, but Worthy has now caught at least
five passes in seven straight games (excluding the Chiefs' Week
18 contest when they rested their starters), and he's scored three
times in his past four contests while seeing an average of over
eight targets per game during this stretch. His performance in
a must-win game against the Bills, was perhaps his best of the
season as he set a career high with 85 yards and also got into
the end zone. Worthy does have a tough matchup against an excellent
Eagles defense, but he's in position to be perhaps the most important
offensive weapon for the Chiefs in this year's Super Bowl.
The media surrounding the Chiefs potentially becoming the first
team to ever win three straight Super Bowls certainly has quarterback
Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce in the spotlight for
this contest. While both players are unquestionably pillars of
this historic run atop the league, the truth is that both have
been quite streaky this season and were ultimately disappointments
for fantasy managers who used premium draft capital on them.
Mahomes, typically one of the league's highest-volume passers,
reached 300 yards passing just three times, including the playoffs,
and he's thrown either one or zero touchdown passes in 10 of his
18 games this season. It'd be too critical to call his season
"bad," but perhaps "bad for Mahomes" is a better descriptor. Kansas
City's defensive-minded approach has meant that Mahomes isn't
getting himself involved in quite as many shootouts as he has
in the past, and a matchup against the Eagles doesn't look like
a great opportunity for us to see the Mahomes of old make his
return. Philadelphia conceded the third-fewest fantasy points
to opposing quarterbacks during the regular season, and only one
quarterback - Jayden Daniels - threw more than two touchdowns
against them in a game this season. Mahomes is still Mahomes and
the talent is still there, but the odds just don't seem strong
that he delivers a high-ceiling game.
Kelce has also had a frustrating season, and the tight end has
been uncharacteristically unpredictable for fantasy purposes.
He dominated both the Chiefs' Week 17 game against the Steelers
and their Divisional Round playoff game against the Texans, compiling
15 receptions for 201 yards and two touchdowns on 19 targets during
those contests. However against the Bills - in a game where the
Chiefs managed to score 32 points - Kelce was held to just two
receptions for 19 yards, he didn't score a touchdown, and he was
targeted just four times. This type of inconsistency has been
extraordinarily irritating for fantasy managers this season, as
he's had multiple stretches of big performances followed by a
complete back-breaking dud. Kelce has been kept to under 35 receiving
yards in eight of his 18 games this season, and he did not score
a touchdown in any of those eight contests, meaning that we're
essentially getting about a 50/50 bust chance this season from
the greatest fantasy tight end of all time. Kelce is good enough
to succeed in any matchup, but with three duds over his past five
games and a matchup against an Eagles defense that gave up the
second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season, this seems
like a smart time to pivot away from the tight end GOAT.
The Chiefs started the season red hot with their running game
compiling over 100 yards in six of their first eight games, but
things haven't been nearly as great as of late. Since that point,
the Chiefs have rushed for 100 or more yards as a team in just
four of their remaining 11 games. While that does include the
victory over the Bills, they really only got to that number because
quarterback Patrick Mahomes rushed for 43 yards on a season-high
11 carries. Without that, the Chiefs would've been held under
the 100-yard mark on the ground for the fourth straight contest
as we head into the Super Bowl.
These overall numbers are even more discouraging when we consider
that neither Kareem Hunt nor Isiah Pacheco has rushed for even
70 yards in a single game since Hunt did it all the way back in
Week 9 - and that was a game that Pacheco was inactive. Additionally,
neither player has reached even 25 receiving yards in a game since
Week 10. Needless to say, this is a backfield that is hanging
on by a thread for fantasy purposes, and they're really only doing
it because of Hunt's touchdown efficiency. Hunt has now scored
on the ground in four straight games despite rushing for just
183 total yards during this stretch. Meanwhile, Pacheco has been
a complete nonfactor for fantasy since returning to the lineup
in late-November, having scored zero touchdowns while averaging
under 30 yards per game on the ground.
This matchup is the most difficult one, at least on paper, that
the Chiefs backs could face (considering they can't play against
their own defense), as the Eagles have allowed just five total
touchdowns to opposing running backs throughout the regular season.
Sure, Hunt might be able to find his way into the end zone, but
the likelihood of either he or Pacheco having a big game is minuscule.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Jalen Hurts' passing yardage numbers have been alarming down
the stretch, as the quarterback has been held to fewer than 135
yards through the air in four of his past six games (excluding
Philadelphia's Week 18 matchup where their starters played just
briefly). However, it's worth considering that while his passing
numbers are down, he's remained one of the most productive fantasy
players in the league, particularly in the red zone. Hurts has
scored a ridiculous 18 rushing touchdowns so far this season,
including three this past week against the Commanders, and he's
doing so while his team's running back, Saquon Barkley, remains
dominant.
The Chiefs' defense has perhaps been the reason they've gotten
as far as they have this season, but it's worth noting that they
actually ranked as a top-12 matchup for opposing quarterbacks
during the regular season. Kansas City allowed two or more total
touchdowns to an opposing quarterback in 10 different games, and
Josh Allen threw for a pair of scores against them in the AFC
Championship game.
Saquon Barkley is likely going to be the focal point of the Eagles'
offensive attack as he has been throughout most of the season,
but if Philadelphia has a tough time running against this exceptional
Kansas City run defense, then things will fall onto Jalen Hurts'
shoulders as he looks to win a championship for his team. Look
for Hurts to potentially throw the ball 30 or more times for just
the second time since Week 4.
If we assume that Jalen Hurts may need to carry a bigger share
of the offensive production than usual, then we should also consider
that his primary pass catcher will also see an uptick in work
for the Super Bowl. This is important information as we look at
this game because while the Chiefs do have Travis Kelce, and Xavier
Worthy has stepped up in recent weeks, neither player has been
nearly as consistent a target earner as Brown has been for the
Eagles. Despite essentially missing five games, Brown managed
to see over 21 percent of Philadelphia's total targets during
the regular season, and he's continued that trend in the playoffs,
particularly over his past two games.
Brown would probably be considered a "Favorite" if
we had a better idea of how effective the Eagles will be in running
the ball, because if they can continue doing what they have been
doing to opposing defenses, then we may see Jalen Hurts in the
low-20s for total pass attempts yet again this week. If the Chiefs
are able to contain Barkley to some extent, then a 30-attempt
game for Hurts is definitely in the cards, which would give Brown
a real shot to approach 10 targets himself, making him the clear
top passing game weapon in this year's Super Bowl.
Tight end Dallas Goedert has been the secondary weapon in the
Eagles' passing game, particularly as of late, and he's coming
off a big seven-catch, 85-yard performance on eight targets against
the Commanders this past week. Goedert has now caught at least
four passes in each of his past four games and he's reached at
least 47 receiving yards in each of those contests. While those
numbers might not be earth-shattering, the reality is that they're
at least more consistent than what we've been seeing out of Travis
Kelce on the opposite sideline. This isn't to say that Goedert
is a better option than Kelce overall, but the cost savings from
going with Goedert instead of Kelce might allow fantasy managers
to make important upgrades at other positions for this week's
DFS tournaments.
As mentioned above, the Philadelphia offense has simply not needed
to pass the ball very often in order to put up points, and their
extreme focus on A.J. Brown has meant that other players are left
fending for the scraps. DeVonta Smith has taken a backseat in
the playoffs, having caught just four passes in each of the Eagles'
playoff contests, and having been held out of the end zone thus
far. It's not that Smith is likely to deliver a terrible game,
but we have to consider that he's a player who just hasn't been
much of a spike-game producer this season. Smith has just two
100-yard performances all season and he only reached the end zone
twice in one game. Meanwhile, he's now been held to fewer than
60 yards receiving in seven of his past nine games. He's a great
second or third option for Jalen Hurts in the passing game, and
his presence could absolutely be pivotal for the Eagles to win
this game, but Smith himself is not the priority, and it's unlikely
that he's going to come through with a big statistical performance
in the Super Bowl.
