Chances are pretty good that when you draft your fantasy football
team in the coming days most of the people you draft with will
have at least some basic strategy that guides them through the
first few rounds, maybe even the first half of your draft. Those
strategies are typically based on position scarcity, perceived
value and a desire to formulate a somewhat balanced team. Thus,
when the halfway point of a draft is reached, most people have
executed their draft plan to the best of their ability.
For some, though, draft strategies fall apart after that halfway
point. The second half of some drafts have little rhyme or reason
as fantasy owners look to fill out rosters with guys they’ve
had on their teams before, or guys from their favorite NFL or
college team, or just guys that some cheat sheet says possess
the most value. It is in these later rounds that an astute owner
can often separate himself or herself from his or her pack of
rivals or, at the very least, protect against the likelihood of
injuries. In the paragraphs that follow, this article will seek
to give you the edge in those later rounds with some ideas for
making the most of the picks that round out your team.
1. Take Fliers on Young/High-Upside
Players
Tight end Zach Ertz should be on your late-round
radar.
If you are taking a cheat sheet to your draft with a list of
players based solely on projected fantasy points, you may end
up with a bench full of veterans particularly if you are using
somebody else’s projections. And, while having a few veterans
like Anquan
Boldin or DeAngelo
Williams can certainly give your team some stability, it limits
your ability to have a truly explosive team. Consider these names:
Eddie
Lacy, Zac
Stacy, Andre
Ellington, Alshon
Jeffery, Keenan
Allen, Cordarrelle
Patterson, Jordan
Cameron and Julius
Thomas. All enjoyed breakout seasons in 2013 and all (minus
Lacy perhaps) were second half, redraft selections at best. If
you hit on even one of them, it likely propelled your team to
another level. So, rule No. 1 is take some chances. And, if you’re
playing in a keeper or dynasty league, the importance of this
rule TRIPLES. The whole second half of your draft should be fliers
minus maybe one or two “safe” picks. Here are some examples of
what we’re talking about here:
RB: Take Carlos
Hyde, Andre
Williams, Christine
Michael, Terrance
West, Tre
Mason and Devonta
Freeman over running backs like Darren McFadden, Shonn Greene,
Chris Ivory, Jonathan Stewart and Knowshon Moreno.
WR: Take Brandin
Cooks, Rueben
Randle, Terrance
Williams, Kelvin
Benjamin, Sammy
Watkins and Kenny
Stills over wide receivers like Greg Jennings, Hakeem Nicks,
Steve Smith and James Jones.
TE: Take Zach
Ertz, Ladarius
Green, Tyler
Eifert and Eric
Ebron over tight ends like Antonio Gates, Heath Miller and
Jared Cook.
Note: The one primary position
that I didn’t include in this was quarterback. If you’re going
to take a flier on a young/high upside quarterback who hasn’t
yet established himself, make sure he’s your No. 3 quarterback
and not your primary backup. Rookie quarterbacks rarely break
out, which leads to consideration No. 2.
2. Obtain an Upper-Tier Backup Quarterback
In recent years, the quarterback position has been deeper than
ever with respect to fantasy drafts. When you consider Ben
Roethlisberger has basically been considered a “backup” quarterback
for fantasy purposes for most his career and then you look at
his actual numbers season in and season out (3,900 yards and 24-plus
TDs on average), you’ll get a feel for just how deep the position
is. This depth can lull a general manager to sleep, and this year
there’s a big difference between the top-tier “backup” quarterbacks
and the lower-tier backups. Let me be more specific: Jay
Cutler, Philip
Rivers, Roethlisberger and Andy
Dalton are significantly better/safer/wiser than Ryan
Tannehill, Alex
Smith, Joe
Flacco and Sam
Bradford. You can find wide receivers on the waiver wire throughout
the course of a season, but once the draft is over, you’re basically
stuck at quarterback barring a trade. Thus, if your starter goes
down, it could be a season-killer unless you’ve got one of the
top-tier quarterback’s noted above. Dalton and Rivers in particular
were top five at the position last year in most scoring formats
(8,800 yards and 65 touchdowns combined). Although coaching changes
this season (Jay Gruden and Ken Whisenhunt are now head coaches
elsewhere and not coordinators) have led to a drop in their respective
values, their presence on your team could prove invaluable. Don’t
put this off. You might just thank me later.
3. Draft Running Backs Who Backup
Players with Health Risks
I would imagine many of you have read a dozen articles over the
years on “handcuffing.” It’s not exactly a new concept. I think
handcuffing, however, is still a vital late-round drafting strategy
with respect to one position and one position only: running back.
If Andre
Johnson were to get injured during the season, for example,
it’s highly unlikely that Keshawn
Martin will fill his shoes in such a way that the numbers
resemble what Johnson puts up. There’s a reason that most receivers
don’t crack the starting lineup on NFL teams. In the case of running
backs, a good offensive line can make even a marginal player into
a productive fantasy starter if he’s forced into action. That’s
why it’s a good idea not only to handcuff, but look to draft running
backs who do indeed directly back up high-risk guys. Keeping that
in mind, here are the running backs (top 25 or so) with the most
and least health risk entering the 2014 season:
Level Four Risk (Running backs whose health
is MOST concerning): Arian
Foster, Ben
Tate.
Level Three Risk (Running backs with elevated
health concerns): DeMarco
Murray, Doug
Martin, Reggie
Bush, C.J.
Spiller, Ryan
Mathews, Frank
Gore.
Level Two Risk (Running backs with mild
to moderate health concerns): Jamaal
Charles, Adrian
Peterson, Marshawn
Lynch, Montee
Ball, Le’Veon Bell, Chris
Johnson, Trent
Richardson.
Level One Risk (Running backs whose health
is LEAST concerning): LeSean
McCoy, Matt
Forte, Eddie Lacy, Giovani
Bernard, Alfred Morris, Zac Stacy, Andre Ellington, Toby
Gerhart, Rashad
Jennings.
All of that is to say that players like Terrance
West (CLE), Jonathan
Grimes (HOU), Lance
Dunbar (DAL), Bryce
Brown (BUF), Donald
Brown (SD), and Bobby
Rainey (TB) make really nice late-round targets, even if you
don’t have the guys starting in front of them on your roster.
There’s a decent chance they’ll start some games given the injury
history or the age of the guy directly in front of them on the
depth chart.
4. Get a Second Team Defense
Fantasy football is all about matchups, and nowhere is that more
true than with respect to team defenses. Even if you feel great
about the team defense you selected on draft day, pick a second
one late in your draft, particularly if you can get a defense
that is going up against a rookie quarterback twice during the
season or plays in an offensively challenged division like the
AFC South. Having a second team defense gives you options- options
you may need as the season progresses to break open a tightly
contested matchup.
I’m sure there are other late-round strategies worth employing
in the world of fantasy football that warrant discussion, but
I think if you keep these four in mind, you’ll be rewarded down
the road for doing so. Remember, seasons are not always won or
lost based upon what happens in rounds one, two or three of a
fantasy draft. It’s those later rounds that sometimes can and
do make all the difference.
Suggestions, comments, or questions? E-mail
me.
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