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Kirk Hollis | Archive | Email  
Staff Writer


Tuesday Morning Buzz
Fantasy Headlines from Week 6
10/20/15

Another wild weekend in the world of fantasy football resulted in a rise in scoring and some stellar individual performances. There were several “clunker” performances out there as well. So, who’s hot, who’s not, and who’s dangling in between? Let’s roll…

Philip Rivers

Philip Rivers has been the best fantasy QB over the last three weeks with 1226 yards and 7 TDs.

The Yardage Monsters

Continuing with a theme from last week, ten quarterbacks threw for 300 yards or more in Week 6. How many of those quarterbacks played for losing teams? Six. This proves yet again that analyzing fantasy football is a different animal than analyzing real football. In fantasy football, you actually want a QB that plays from behind or has to compensate for a poor defense or a good offensive opponent. Playing from ahead means a more conservative, running approach more often than not. Of the ten quarterbacks that hit the 300-yard barrier this week, Philip Rivers hit it the hardest with 503 yards passing. Carson Palmer and Matthew Stafford threw for 400-plus each. Game flow and/or an inability to run the ball effectively led to those monster numbers. So, what can we expect from those three QBs moving forward? Stafford, theoretically, should have more games like this one coming. He has quality weapons, especially when Eric Ebron (knee) returns and the Lions are not moving the ball on the ground. Palmer likely won’t repeat his yardage numbers that often, but it’s not because he can’t- rather, his team plays from ahead most of the time and will run the ball more than the Lions do. As for Rivers, he’s been a machine the last three weeks. The fact that Melvin Gordon has struggled out of the gate has forced him into what he now is. That’s good news if you’re a Rivers owner. Bad news if you traded him away after his first big game thinking that was the ceiling.

I Just Can’t Be Subtle Anymore…

I have tried to be patient. I’ve taken a few jabs the last couple of weeks, but held out hope that it was all going to change. It is changing. It’s getting worse. I’m talking about Eddie Lacy and his plunge into the fantasy abyss. On Sunday, Lacy got four carries. He gained six yards. He fumbled one of his carries. James Starks, on the other hand, turned his 11 touches into 117 yards and two touchdowns. If you are an Eddie Lacy owner, he is dragging your season to the depths. And, the news doesn’t get better. Next up is a bye week and then Denver’s wrecking ball defense in Week 8. I guess it’s still possible that Lacy gets it going in the right direction closer to Thanksgiving, but what chance at actually making the playoffs does that give you? Simply put, Lacy is the biggest (no pun intended) bust of the 2015 season so far. He’s officially wrestled that title away from…

Andrew Luck Gets Off The Schneid (For Now)

It wasn’t as pretty as the box score made it out to be, but there’s no denying that Andrew Luck finally resembled the same player as he was in 2014 on Sunday night. Luck’s 312 passing yards and 3 passing TDs to go along with 30-plus rushing yards was similar to what he was putting up last year on a weekly basis. T.Y. Hilton looks healthy finally and Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett are injecting new life into the passing game. The problem is, Luck had to throw 50 passes to reach the 300-yard plateau. When they review the film and numbers, they’re going to see that Frank Gore averaged six yards a carry and only got the ball 13 times. The Colts need a more balanced offense to win games and surely the coaching staff will notice and adjust. That means Luck is probably going to be scaled back to 30-35 attempts per game and Gore will be given more opportunities to move the chains and rest the defense. Look for Luck’s numbers to stabilize around the low-end QB1 level moving forward, while Gore rises into the top ten at the RB position by early November. A word of caution: Any team that tries a stupid fourth down/fake punt/whatever that was/ play cannot be full trusted to do what makes the most sense.

Meet The New Studs of Fantasy Football

It may feel like everything in 2015 is just random when it comes to fantasy football, but there are some constants out there materializing. They come in the form of a three-headed beast known as Freeman, Ivory, and Hopkins. Who could have predicted that? All those hearty pre-season discussions about whether or not Lacy was a better pick than Marshawn Lynch have converted to who will be the best RB at year’s end - Devonta Freeman or Chris Ivory. Huh? Is that for real? I think we can safely now say that both running backs are going to be in the mix for top dog moving forward with only Le’Veon Bell, Adrian Peterson, and Matt Forte having any shot of knocking them off. As for DeAndre Hopkins, I had him pegged earlier this season as mostly a garbage-time stat stuffer. Truth be told, with Brian Hoyer back in at QB, Hopkins is unstoppable. He’s on pace for 139 catches, 1,936 yards, and 14 TDs. Hopkins broke out last year in his sophomore season, but he’s gone to a whole new level in 2015. As long as Houston doesn’t do anything stupid (like going back to Ryan Mallett), expect Hopkins to continue his surge into the record books. He’s being double-teamed every week and it just doesn’t matter.

Help, I’m Falling…and My Owners Can’t Get Up

Eddie Lacy is certainly the most prominent season-killing player out there right now, but he’s not the only one. If you cringe when you hear one of the following names whispered to you, you’re probably an owner of Antonio Brown, Randall Cobb, Melvin Gordon, Alfred Morris, or C.J. Anderson. Gordon and Morris’ woes are bad, but they probably aren’t ruining your season as both were projected as RB2’s before the year began. But, Brown and Cobb are a different story. Brown owners now not only have to worry about who’s throwing him the ball, but also what impact Martavis Bryant (6-137-2) is going to have moving forward. As for Cobb, imagine if you’ve had him and Lacy both on your team the last three weeks. Some of us don’t have to imagine. Neither WR looks like they’re going to meet original projections moving forward.

LeSean and Alshon

On a much brighter note, Week 6 marked the return of LeSean McCoy and Alshon Jeffery from injuries that had essentially wiped out their impact on the fantasy football landscape through five weeks. Initial reports of their returns are very encouraging as McCoy nearly topped 100 yards and scored a TD and Jeffery nearly topped 150 yards and also had a TD. For owners who have been patiently waiting for these two superstars to get their health figured out, the time for their rising is coming soon. Jeffery will take Week 7 off (bye), while McCoy will travel to London and then have Week 8 off to further heal and rest. Expect both to have major roles from Week Nine on and kudos to you if you either hung on to them through the storm or picked them up cheap in a trade. They are both top shelf talents on teams that will seek to utilize them properly. The Bills want to win via the run and good team defense. The Bears aren’t good enough defensively to keep from airing it out game after game. You as owners of either or both will reap the benefits.

New Coach, New Philosophy?

Impactful running backs are rare nowadays, but we may have found another one this past weekend thanks to a coaching change in South Beach. The Dolphins decided that maybe it's better to actually give Lamar Miller more than five carries a game and Miller rewarded that faith with 118 yards and a TD on 21 touches. Miami actually ran the ball more times than it passed it (31-28) and getting Miller going actually makes the whole offense better including Jordan Cameron, who still has the potential to be a weekly fantasy starter as the Dolphins learn to incorporate his talents. There will be other coaches fired an interims named in the weeks to come. Sometimes, those changes bring players back into the fantasy-relevant fold. Something to keep an eye on as we now begin tracking Lamar Miller 2.0…

That'll do it for the Buzz this week. Hope you weren't counting on Eli Manning or Sam Bradford last night...or, if you were, I hope your league doesn't punish interceptions. It's on to Week 7 as Eddie Lacy owners everywhere get to do what they've wanted to do all season- leave him on the bench. See you next week!