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Kirk Hollis | Archive | Email  
Staff Writer


Tuesday Morning Buzz
Fantasy Headlines from Week 11
11/22/16

Sometimes strange weekends occur in fantasy football. That’s what happened this past weekend as weather made its presence felt and some players rose to the challenge while others did not. Always makes for an interesting review and that’s what we do here at the Buzz…

Andy Dalton

Things couldn't get much worse for Andy Dalton who lost two of his best receiving threats in Week 11.


That Wicked Weather…


All those missed extra points on Sunday were well-documented (there were a dozen of them), but points and yards were also down in general due to blustery conditions in much of the country. Prior to Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers combining for over 700 yards passing on Sunday night, only two other QBs had gone for 300-plus yards passing all day. In a league where almost a third of the QBs break that barrier each and every week, that’s saying something. There was also only one WR with 120 yards or more (Rishard Matthews). If you were counting on Ben Roethlisberger or Antonio Brown, for example, their performances were far below normal benchmarks. It’s a solid reminder of something you now have to do every week from now until the fantasy season ends for you. That is, check weather conditions and adjust accordingly. Missed PATs are one thing, but they won’t likely cost you like starting a QB in 30-plus MPH winds in Buffalo. We’ll just have to see what the precise impact is during the next five weeks. Expect the unexpected.

Bad Day to Be a Bengal…

Although Andy Dalton salvaged his day with a rushing TD and rookie Tyler Boyd showed he can make plays, it was otherwise a dreadful day for owners counting on A.J. Green on Sunday and in the foreseeable future. Green went down on the third play of the game and initial reports of his hamstring injury could be of the multi-week variety. Not good news if you were counting on Green to help win you a championship. Few were probably counting on Giovani Bernard to play a significant role down the stretch, but he too is out for the foreseeable future with a torn ACL that will definitely end his season. Both losses make Dalton only worthy of starting consideration in two QB league as he won’t be able to generate the kinds of totals in the passing game with both guys gone. Boyd and Brandon LaFell will attempt to keep the offense going forward, but look for Tyler Eifert to benefit most from a bad/unfortunate situation.

Kirk Cousins and His Band of Merry Men

Cousins was mentioned previously, and yes, his 375 passing yards and 3 TDs came against the lowly Packers defense, but in a week where offenses were largely stymied, the Washington offense thrived. Jamison Crowder (100-plus yards, 1 TD) is becoming a very reliable WR2, projecting as a 1,000 yard/10 TD receiver by season’s end. Pierre Garcon was able to have his most productive game in years (116 rec. yards, 1 TD), and above all else, Rob Kelley looked like the second coming of Timmy Smith (you old guys will understand that reference). Kelley’s was fantasy football’s most productive RB in Week 11- something NO ONE could have foreseen or even imagined. Cousins and Co. won’t play the Packers every week, but this is an offense in rhythm and guys like Crowder and Kelley have earned their way into starting lineups from here on out. Hail to the ‘Skins!

Motor City Malfunctioning

On the flip side of Washington’s great weekend comes a story of offensive futility in Detroit. Sure, the Lions are 6-4 and they scored 26 points on Sunday…but nearly half of those points came on a punt return and an interception return. Their only offensive touchdown actually came courtesy of a rushing touchdown by none other than TE Eric Ebron. We have discussed the shift from Marvin Jones to Golden Tate in the passing game in recent weeks, but on Sunday, both were nearly invisible, accounting for only 42 yards receiving combined. And, that’s three times the number of yards rushed for against the (gulp) mighty Jaguars defense. Detroit may be winning, but they’re not doing fantasy owners any favors. And, while they often play above their heads on Thanksgiving Day, a matchup with the Vikings hardly seems like a recipe for rejuvenation. Maybe Ameer Abdullah will return prior to your fantasy playoffs and give this team a boost. If not, don’t be counting on anyone down the stretch unless it’s perhaps Ebron or Theo Riddick in a PPR league. Then again, you probably shouldn’t count on rushing TDs from your tight end to happen again, either.

Exhibit G as to Why Fantasy Football Can Drive You Mad

Maybe you can relate to this. Maybe not this Tuesday, but another Tuesday…like two weeks from now or two weeks ago. To win a game this weekend, I only needed a few points from Martellus Bennett to get the job done. Rob Gronkowski was out. Julian Edelman has had a down year. If you had told me before the game that Tom Brady was going to throw for 4 TDs and nearly 300 yards, I would have told you that Bennett was likely a large part of that. Instead, Edelman got 17 targets while Bennett got…2. I benched Jimmy Graham to start Bennett and lost by five points. But, hey at least I didn’t bench Carlos Hyde to start the slumping Isaiah Crowell. What kind of an id…

Never mind. It’s a cruel, confusing game sometimes. I know you feel my pain because you’ve got pain of your own. Sure, it’s only fantasy football, but cherish the week where everything goes as planned. Most weeks you end up wondering why Julian Edelman is suddenly so popular…

Sun Setting in Arizona as Palmer Plummets

One of the things “experts” try to do in advance of a fantasy football season is try to predict which players will “get old” before the season is through. There are always a few guys that seemingly “hit the wall” and thus don’t have what it takes to be fantasy elite anymore. One of the examples of this from 2016 is officially Carson Palmer. Arizona has a receiving corps that we once called one of the best of all-time (see Buzz, 2015). Now, you’ve got two WRs grossly underachieving (Michael Floyd, John Brown), and Palmer throwing for multiple interceptions in three games this season. After the best statistical season of his career last year, Palmer is now simply a fantasy backup at best. This is essentially an offense that relies on David Johnson for much of its production while Larry Fitzgerald still churns out an occasional worthy performance. Palmer certainly isn’t the only QB disappointing this season (see below), but he doesn’t look like the same guy he was much of last season and if the Cardinals want to win games from here on out, they’ll pass less and just keep feeding DJ…

A Ray (or Two) of Hope at Running Back…

On to something less depressing. Here’s to a couple of running backs who could make a big difference for your team down the stretch. The first could literally be a game changer. Thomas Rawls has spent most of this season on the sidelines, but will now get access to 20-25 touches minimum per game most likely with C.J. Prosise out with a shoulder injury (likely for the rest of the season) and Christine Michael now residing in Green Bay. Rawls didn’t find the end zone in Week 11, but he did gain nearly 100 yards from scrimmage and looked like a three-down back in a time when those guys are hard to find. The second guy who could be a real asset in the home stretch is Giants RB, Rashad Jennings. The Giants seem to be hanging their hat on being able to run the ball and not turn it over downfield, which plays right into Jennings’s value. He’s amassed 238 yards from scrimmage the past two weeks and the Giants have won both games. In a world where reliable RB2s are very hard to find, Jennings could be your guy if you can get him or better yet, if you’ve already got him.

Panic Setting in for Those Depending on Cam to be Cam

Aside from the Martellus Bennett debacle, I really felt like I had two near perfect matchups to exploit this weekend. One (Le’Veon Bell vs. Cleveland) turned out great, but the other was both puzzling and highly disappointing. Cam Newton vs New Orleans seemed like a path to points as he lit up the Saints on the road in Week 6 for over 300 yards passing and 3 TDs including one on the ground. I said last week that it was the perfect time to trade for Cam with not only the Saints coming up, but other great matchups to exploit in the near future as well. Then, came Thursday. Then came 192 passing yards, only 7 rushing yards, and 1 passing TD. Newton was under constant duress and was fortunate to get the points he did as Ted Ginn Jr. bailed him out with a great catch at the end of the first half. I’m going to keep starting Newton as my other options aren’t better, but my expectations have been greatly tempered. As they should be. Cam simply isn’t Cam as we defined him one year ago.

What Happens Down in Mexico…

The Texans and Raiders got it on Monday night south of the border and the Texans offense actually resembled an NFL unit for a change. And, they should have produced even more than they did as the zebras cheated them out of at least one touchdown and maybe two. Hopkins scored an early TD that was called back because they said he stepped out of bounds. He didn't. Then, the Texans got three bad spots in a row and should have had the ball in the red zone with a fresh set of downs. Lamar Miller was plenty good in spite of all of that and Derek Carr produced enough big plays (3 TD passes) to be a fantasy factor on what was a soft week for QBs. If you've stuck by Hopkins all this time, though, that initial call was cruel stuff.

Giving Thanks

As we wrap up this week's edition of the Buzz, we sincerely hope you will find some time this week to be thankful for all that you have been given in this life. As for who we think you'll be most thankful for on Thursday in terms of fantasy production, look no further than the Dallas-Washington clash. Both teams come in with momentum offensively and my advice would be get as many guys in your lineup from that game as you can. With Andrew Luck (concussion) likely out on Thanksgiving night, it's really the only game in which a shoot-out is likely. And so, to you and yours we say Happy Thanksgiving! We'll see you next week right here...