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Kirk Hollis | Archive | Email  
Staff Writer


Tuesday Morning Buzz
Fantasy Headlines from Week 13
12/6/16

Week 13 wasn’t full of surprises other than a couple of lower tier tight ends enjoying career games and a couple quarterback duds (more on that later). Still, there were a lot of moving parts to digest and that’s our specialty here at the Buzz. So, the top ten things we noticed…

Jordan Howard

Jordan Howard cut his way throught the snow and the 49ers defense for 117 yards and three TDs.


A Perfect Storm: The Jordan Howard Story


Games played in the snow are often a running back’s wildest dream come true as they lean the game script in the direction of conservative play calling and ton of carries. Add in the league’s worst run defense and we should have known in advance that Jordan Howard was going to have a field day against the hapless 49ers. And, that is exactly what took place. Howard gained 117 yards on 32 carries, but even more importantly crossed the goal line three times. If you opted to start him, you were rewarded with one of the two best performances of the week from the RB position. Weather will always be one of fantasy football’s most volatile variables. But, when you add a horrid run defense into the equation, it’s a set up for tremendous success. Hence, the perfect combination.

Carolina Blues

Sometimes, I can’t believe we’re watching the same collection of players from Carolina that we watched in 2015. Sure, Seattle is a formidable defense, but Cam Newton has now completed less than 50 percent of his passes in three straight games and failing to reach 250 yards in each contest. Simply put, Newton’s 2015 season may end up being an outlier along with his rookie season when he bolstered his totals by rushing for 14 scores. Newton was hardly alone in terms of being a disappointing on Sunday night. Jonathan Stewart, Greg Olsen, and especially Kelvin Benjamin were little more than a whimper in terms of fantasy production. For Olsen, it marked his fourth straight game with three points or less in a non-PPR format. The Panthers (much like the Jets on Monday night) appear to be mailing it in and hopefully you’re not counting on anyone in blue & silver to win you games in December. At least, not Carolina blue and silver…

Heads, I Win...

There’s another blue and silver that is worthy of some praise from Sunday. And, they’re the good side of a two-sided coin that unfolded in the comfy confines of the Superdome. Matthew Stafford was a wrecking ball, even with Marvin Jones sitting the game out and still no running game to speak of. Golden Tate was his primary object of attention and if you traded for Tate early in the season, you have really gotten your money’s worth more weeks than not. The Saints’ defense had been improving, but it’s not a surprise that the Lions got well on offense against them. What was surprising…

Tails, You Lose…

In the same game as above, the New Orleans Saints’ superstar QB threw…zero touchdown passes. That hasn’t happened to Drew Brees at home in almost five years. And, if you were counting on Brees to carry you into the fantasy playoffs, I hope this performance didn’t cost you. It’s hard to be critical of Brees - he’s likely won you far more games this year than he’s lost, but this was a strange and unforeseen effort. Mark Ingram’s rollercoaster season was something we documented last week and that was again the case vs. Detroit as he only managed 53 yards on 12 touches. Tim Hightower was an even bigger bust with 9 total yards, although if were starting Hightower, you’ve got bigger problems than just one game. All in all, this was supposed to be the league’s shoot-out game. The Lions lived up to their part of the bargain. The Saints? Not so much.

I Would Tell You to Stop Starting Todd Gurley, But...

It wouldn’t do much good to bench Todd Gurley now if you’ve had him all year. Gurley has likely cost you a playoff spot as the price you paid to get him was steep. When Gurley ripped off a series of high-yardage games last year, it was thought that even the offensively challenged Rams couldn’t hold him down. The thought now is that yes, they indeed can. Gurley is on pace to get 50 or so more carries than he did in 2015, but would also fall short of 1,000 yards as of now by nearly 100. Somehow, Kenny Britt has emerged as a semi-reasonable WR3 for the Rams, but that hardly takes the sting off what Gurley has, or in this case, hasn’t done. But, hey, at least the Rams held Danny Woodhead to not a single yard from scrimmage on Sunday afternoon.

Baltimore: The Offensive Juggernaut

Do you ever think you have football, especially fantasy football, figured out? Take Sunday’s game between the Ravens as Dolphins as a sign that nobody has reached that status in reality. Joe Flacco was Week 13’s most dynamic quarterback, throwing for 381 yards and 4 TDs. Terrance West, once thought of as a possible difference-maker in December returned to prominence courtesy of a couple of touchdowns. And, Dennis Pitta put up the best game of any tight end this week whose last name doesn’t start with A. I would have projected the Ravens-Dolphins game to be a 16-13 game in which several players did well, but nobody really put up difference-making numbers. That’s not what happened, obviously. It’s been one of 2016’s most prominent themes. You just don’t know for sure what’s going to happen from week to week. Does that drive you towards loving fantasy football more or just make you want to beat your head against a brick wall? Meanwhile, don’t expect the Joe Flacco in Week 14 to resemble what you just witnessed this go-around.

Carson's Check-Downs Make David Johnson a PPR Legend

As has been the case all year, another player the Buzz called out on a previous week came up strong just a week or two later. Carson Palmer passed for 300 yards exactly on Sunday and that included no fewer than three touchdowns. But, he also averaged only 10 yards per completion and NINE of those completions went to David Johnson who is now on pace for 85 catches and over 1,000 yards receiving. Johnson has already gone over 1,000 yards rushing and has added 15 total touchdowns to boot. In short, he is fantasy football’s premier star in leagues that award points for receptions as he catches more balls and gains more yardage than Ezekiel Elliott and find the end zone far more than Le’Veon Bell. In reference to that trio, though, is there any doubt as to who the first three picks are going to be in a redraft next summer? Of those three, here’s suggesting Johnson will be No.1 all day and every day in leagues that make receptions a part of the scoring framework. A check down QB is, after all, a fantasy RB’s best friend.

The Shrinking Martellus

Does anybody still trust Martellus Bennett at this point? Every time Rob Gronkowski is shelved, we all think Bennett becomes the ideal play - the guy that Tom Brady is going to go to again and again, particularly near the goal line. Instead, Bennett has averaged only 21 yards a game with no touchdowns in six of his last seven starts. Simply put, everyone’s status in the New England offense is on the rise…except Bennett’s. He may put up one more high-target, high volume game between now and the end of the year, but the opposite of that is more likely. Proceed at your risk when considering any more starts for Martellus.

December's Unlikely Heroes, Part One: Dwayne Allen

For the next three weeks, we’re going to highlight the unlikely heroes during these weeks that may play a significant role in winning a few fantasy championships. This first time, we’re going to go with Dwayne Allen, the tight end from Indianapolis. Allen was likely not in many starting lineups on Monday, but if he was…oh, what a gift you received. Allen’s 72-yard, 3 TD game is the kind of thing you’ll remember a long time if you happened to plug him in and needed something miraculous/ridiculous to get over the top and win. Much like the game that Joe Flacco produced, don’t expect a copy of this from Allen anytime soon. We salute him nevertheless.

Trend Turned to Ruin

One final thought before we close up shop this week is that sometimes a trendy thing in fantasy football can really come back to bite you in the butt. How many people picked up Colin Kaepernick and started him this past weekend vs. Chicago? After all, Kaepernick had been one of the top five fantasy quarterbacks over the course of the last month. And, he was playing the Bears. If you did, welcome to Crash and Burn-Ville. Kaepernick has been in the spotlight all year, but for fantasy owners, the debacle in Chicago (1 for 5, 4 yards passing) may be remembered the most. Something to ponder for this week and beyond…

It’s fantasy playoff time now and we’ll be here again next week to tell you all about it…