Week 13 wasn’t full of surprises other than a couple of lower
tier tight ends enjoying career games and a couple quarterback duds
(more on that later). Still, there were a lot of moving parts to
digest and that’s our specialty here at the Buzz. So, the
top ten things we noticed…
Jordan Howard cut his way throught the
snow and the 49ers defense for 117 yards and three TDs.
A Perfect Storm: The Jordan Howard Story
Games played in the snow are often a running back’s wildest
dream come true as they lean the game script in the direction of
conservative play calling and ton of carries. Add in the league’s
worst run defense and we should have known in advance that Jordan Howard was going to have a field day against the hapless 49ers.
And, that is exactly what took place. Howard gained 117 yards on
32 carries, but even more importantly crossed the goal line three
times. If you opted to start him, you were rewarded with one of
the two best performances of the week from the RB position. Weather
will always be one of fantasy football’s most volatile variables.
But, when you add a horrid run defense into the equation, it’s
a set up for tremendous success. Hence, the perfect combination.
Carolina Blues
Sometimes, I can’t believe we’re watching the same collection
of players from Carolina that we watched in 2015. Sure, Seattle
is a formidable defense, but Cam Newton has now completed less than
50 percent of his passes in three straight games and failing to
reach 250 yards in each contest. Simply put, Newton’s 2015
season may end up being an outlier along with his rookie season
when he bolstered his totals by rushing for 14 scores. Newton was
hardly alone in terms of being a disappointing on Sunday night.
Jonathan Stewart, Greg Olsen, and especially Kelvin Benjamin were
little more than a whimper in terms of fantasy production. For Olsen,
it marked his fourth straight game with three points or less in
a non-PPR format. The Panthers (much like the Jets on Monday night)
appear to be mailing it in and hopefully you’re not counting
on anyone in blue & silver to win you games in December. At
least, not Carolina blue and silver…
Heads, I Win...
There’s another blue and silver that is worthy of some praise
from Sunday. And, they’re the good side of a two-sided coin
that unfolded in the comfy confines of the Superdome. Matthew Stafford
was a wrecking ball, even with Marvin Jones sitting the game out
and still no running game to speak of. Golden Tate was his primary
object of attention and if you traded for Tate early in the season,
you have really gotten your money’s worth more weeks than
not. The Saints’ defense had been improving, but it’s
not a surprise that the Lions got well on offense against them.
What was surprising…
Tails, You Lose…
In the same game as above, the New Orleans Saints’ superstar
QB threw…zero touchdown passes. That hasn’t happened
to Drew Brees at home in almost five years. And, if you were counting
on Brees to carry you into the fantasy playoffs, I hope this performance
didn’t cost you. It’s hard to be critical of Brees -
he’s likely won you far more games this year than he’s
lost, but this was a strange and unforeseen effort. Mark Ingram’s
rollercoaster season was something we documented last week and that
was again the case vs. Detroit as he only managed 53 yards on 12
touches. Tim Hightower was an even bigger bust with 9 total yards,
although if were starting Hightower, you’ve got bigger problems
than just one game. All in all, this was supposed to be the league’s
shoot-out game. The Lions lived up to their part of the bargain.
The Saints? Not so much.
I Would Tell You to Stop Starting Todd
Gurley, But...
It wouldn’t do much good to bench Todd
Gurley now if you’ve had him all year. Gurley has likely cost
you a playoff spot as the price you paid to get him was steep. When
Gurley ripped off a series of high-yardage games last year, it was
thought that even the offensively challenged Rams couldn’t hold
him down. The thought now is that yes, they indeed can. Gurley is
on pace to get 50 or so more carries than he did in 2015, but would
also fall short of 1,000 yards as of now by nearly 100. Somehow,
Kenny
Britt has emerged as a semi-reasonable WR3 for the Rams, but
that hardly takes the sting off what Gurley has, or in this case,
hasn’t done. But, hey, at least the Rams held Danny
Woodhead to not a single yard from scrimmage on Sunday afternoon.
Baltimore: The Offensive Juggernaut
Do you ever think you have football, especially fantasy football,
figured out? Take Sunday’s game between the Ravens as Dolphins
as a sign that nobody has reached that status in reality. Joe Flacco
was Week 13’s most dynamic quarterback, throwing for 381 yards
and 4 TDs. Terrance West, once thought of as a possible difference-maker
in December returned to prominence courtesy of a couple of touchdowns.
And, Dennis Pitta put up the best game of any tight end this week
whose last name doesn’t start with A. I would have projected
the Ravens-Dolphins game to be a 16-13 game in which several players
did well, but nobody really put up difference-making numbers. That’s
not what happened, obviously. It’s been one of 2016’s
most prominent themes. You just don’t know for sure what’s
going to happen from week to week. Does that drive you towards loving
fantasy football more or just make you want to beat your head against
a brick wall? Meanwhile, don’t expect the Joe Flacco in Week
14 to resemble what you just witnessed this go-around.
Carson's Check-Downs Make David Johnson
a PPR Legend
As has been the case all year, another player the Buzz called out
on a previous week came up strong just a week or two later. Carson
Palmer passed for 300 yards exactly on Sunday and that included
no fewer than three touchdowns. But, he also averaged only 10 yards
per completion and NINE of those completions went to David
Johnson who is now on pace for 85 catches and over 1,000 yards
receiving. Johnson has already gone over 1,000 yards rushing and
has added 15 total touchdowns to boot. In short, he is fantasy football’s
premier star in leagues that award points for receptions as he catches
more balls and gains more yardage than Ezekiel
Elliott and find the end zone far more than Le’Veon Bell. In
reference to that trio, though, is there any doubt as to who the
first three picks are going to be in a redraft next summer? Of those
three, here’s suggesting Johnson will be No.1 all day and every
day in leagues that make receptions a part of the scoring framework.
A check down QB is, after all, a fantasy RB’s best friend.
The Shrinking Martellus
Does anybody still trust Martellus Bennett at this point? Every
time Rob Gronkowski is shelved, we all think Bennett becomes the
ideal play - the guy that Tom Brady is going to go to again and
again, particularly near the goal line. Instead, Bennett has averaged
only 21 yards a game with no touchdowns in six of his last seven
starts. Simply put, everyone’s status in the New England offense
is on the rise…except Bennett’s. He may put up one more
high-target, high volume game between now and the end of the year,
but the opposite of that is more likely. Proceed at your risk when
considering any more starts for Martellus.
December's Unlikely Heroes, Part One:
Dwayne Allen
For the next three weeks, we’re going to highlight the unlikely
heroes during these weeks that may play a significant role in winning
a few fantasy championships. This first time, we’re going to go
with Dwayne
Allen, the tight end from Indianapolis. Allen was likely not
in many starting lineups on Monday, but if he was…oh, what a gift
you received. Allen’s 72-yard, 3 TD game is the kind of thing you’ll
remember a long time if you happened to plug him in and needed something
miraculous/ridiculous to get over the top and win. Much like the
game that Joe Flacco produced, don’t expect a copy of this from
Allen anytime soon. We salute him nevertheless.
Trend Turned to Ruin
One final thought before we close up shop this week is that sometimes
a trendy thing in fantasy football can really come back to bite
you in the butt. How many people picked up Colin Kaepernick and
started him this past weekend vs. Chicago? After all, Kaepernick
had been one of the top five fantasy quarterbacks over the course
of the last month. And, he was playing the Bears. If you did, welcome
to Crash and Burn-Ville. Kaepernick has been in the spotlight all
year, but for fantasy owners, the debacle in Chicago (1 for 5, 4
yards passing) may be remembered the most. Something to ponder for
this week and beyond…
It’s fantasy playoff time now and we’ll be here again
next week to tell you all about it…
