Julio Jones averaged 25 yards per catch
as he and Matt Ryan (503-4 TDs) dismantled the Panthers.
Matt and Julio Down by the Schoolyard
If you’re a fan of Paul Simon (yes, I’m old) you’ll
get the reference here, but beyond that, it was a day in which the
duo of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones did take the Carolina defense to
school…and then some. Depending on how your league views yardage
bonuses, 500-plus yards passing and 300 yards receiving makes for
“monster” games. We throw that term around a lot in
fantasy football, but this was the textbook definition. Lessons
learned: Beware the stud WR who had a quiet game the week before.
That would mean that DeAndre Hopkins and/or Odell Beckham Jr. might
be due for “monster” games in Week 5. Also, Matt Ryan
is here to stay as a starting fantasy QB. I would probably sit him
at Denver, but afterwards, proceed with him as your starter unless
Drew Brees or Ben Roethlisberger is on your roster. We probably
won’t see another 500-plus yard passing performance or a 300-yard
receiving performance so hopefully you reaped the benefits of one
or both as opposed to being on the other side of the avalanche.
Beware the Angry Juggernaut
In the same way Julio Jones proved that his Week 3 stat line was
a fluke, the Pittsburgh Steelers prove their three bad hours in
Philadelphia was an anomaly. On Sunday night, it was five hours
of brilliance that resulted in five touchdown passes from Ben Roethlisberger,
multiple touchdowns from Antonio Brown, and nearly 180 yards from
scrimmage from Le’Veon Bell. We may never fully know or understand
what happened in Philly, but the first Sunday of October restored
order to the world of fantasy football. Roethlisberger may be the
No.1 QB moving forward. I know Brown and Bell are No.1 at their
respective positions. Hope you took advantage of some frustrated
owner last week and found a way to get one of the big three Steelers
on your roster.
The Gronk Dilemma, Part Two…With a Side
of Jamaal Charles
For your sake, I hope your selection of Rob
Gronkowski and/or Jamaal
Charles hasn’t put your season on the brink. Both were seen
as fairly safe picks when the majority of fantasy drafts were conducted.
Perhaps if you did a Labor Day Weekend draft, you avoided them.
Their stat lines in Week 4 weren’t pretty: 1 catch for 11 yards
for Gronk; 2 carries for 7 yards for Charles. From this point forward,
starting Gronk should be a safer proposition, but Charles’ future
is wholly uncertain. To say that the first four weeks of the 2016
season brought about major frustration for their owners is probably
saying it too kindly… especially with Martellus Bennett racking
up 100 receiving yards for the second time this season. Ouch.
It’s Getting Harder to Dismiss DeMarco
It was said that by October Derrick Henry would be getting the majority
of carries in Tennessee. It was said that DeMarco Murray was past
his prime and a poor fit in the Titans offense (is there such thing
as a good fit in that offense?). After 419 yards rushing in the
past three weeks, combined with 5 overall TDs, it seems that fantasy
pundits had it wrong. The Titans offense is indeed a mess, but it’s
not hindering Murray who received 25 carries on Sunday, by far his
most of this season. Most still see Murray as more of a No.2 fantasy
RB than a No.1, but who can you honestly put above him at this point?
Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson? - Sure. Ezekiel Elliott? -
Probably. Melvin Gordon? - Maybe. That would make Murray a top-five
RB moving forward assuming Tennessee doesn’t wear him out.
Nightmare Sunday in New England
Rob Gronkowski wasn’t the only belly-flopper in New England
over the weekend. The entire WR corps (Edelman, Amendola, Hogan)
combined for 1 catch for 16 yards. LeGarrette Blount (13-54) can
only do so much when there’s no fear of getting a wide receiver
the football. Certainly, having Tom Brady back next week will make
a world of difference, but it also may take a couple of weeks for
things to begin operating smoothly given how out of synch this offense
was on Sunday. One guy to go get this week if he’s available
- James White. White caught five passes yesterday and that total
could double next week with Brady under center.
Shattering Another Myth: You Shouldn’t
Own RBs on Bad NFL Teams
Below the surface, there continues to be a radical shift in fantasy
football. It is perhaps the biggest shift in strategy in the 30
years that I have been involved in the hobby. Formerly, it was a
rule that you didn’t want RBs on your roster from bad NFL
teams. After all, those teams often played from behind and didn’t
get into the red zone as often. This year, the flip side has emerged:
That is, most bad NFL teams don’t have good quarterbacks and
thus MUST rely on their running game to stay competitive. Consider
this: five of the top ten fantasy running backs through four weeks
come from Tennessee, San Francisco, Cleveland, San Diego, and Buffalo.
Those aren’t good NFL teams (although Buffalo is getting better).
Isaiah Crowell is averaging 110 yards and nearly a TD every week.
Carlos Hyde is averaging 82 yards and over a TD per week. DeMarco
Murray and Melvin Gordon have already been mentioned. And, in Week
4, Jordan Howard and Matt Jones both notched well over 100 yards
from scrimmage for their mediocre squads. Again, the paradigm has
shifted. Bad passing teams become good running teams by necessity.
It’s the latest thing.
Finally, Some Clarity in Baltimore
If you happened to read any of my preseason articles, it was noted
several times that the Baltimore backfield was perhaps the most
difficult situation in the NFL to decipher. That remained the case
through three weeks, but in Week 4, Terrance West staked his claim
to being “the man” by gaining 113 yards on 21 carries
with Justin Forsett a healthy scratch from the game-day roster.
So, West is the man going forward, right? You would think so, but
remember that Kenneth Dixon is set to return to the field this week
and could shake things up yet again. At least for this one moment
in time, we can say the Ravens RB situation looks like something
other than a badly muddied pond water.
Russell’s Return
Lost in all the Week 4 craziness was a return to normalcy for Russell
Wilson. Wilson’s 300-plus yard passing day included three
touchdown passes to three different receivers and a bunch of pitch
and catch sessions with the re-emerging Jimmy Graham ( 6-113; two
additional targets). Wilson didn’t run the ball much (-5 yards
rushing), but the high-volume passing attack resembled what we saw
from him in November and December of last year. Wilson tends to
get bogged down in NFC West divisional tilts for some reason, but
remains an elite option when playing outside of the division. His
stat line from Sunday was certainly encouraging to say the least.
Will the No.1 Wide Receiver in Oakland
Please Stand Up?
Perhaps he already has. For the third consecutive week, Michael
Crabtree overshadowed Amari
Cooper and now leads Cooper for the season in terms of touchdowns,
4-to-0. Crabtree was an afterthought in most fantasy drafts compared
to the trendy Cooper, but thus far this season, Crabtree is scoring
more like a fantasy WR1 while Cooper's numbers have been anything
but top-notch. So, who is the Oakland WR to own going forward? Derek
Carr has been very efficient in the red zone this season and
that's where Crabtree excels. I do think Cooper's talent will propel
him to top-15 numbers by the middle of the season, but at this point,
he's merely 1A/1B with Crabtree, who is no longer the forgotten
man in Oak-town.
Monday Night Musings
As you tune in this Tuesday morning, the freshest thing on your
mind is what you watched Monday night. As such, here some random
thoughts to conclude the Buzz for this week. First, if you own Jerick
McKinnon, Monday night was encouraging. Matt
Asiata, in the past, has been a TD vulture in recent memory.
The fact that McKinnon converted a run inside the five yard-line
could give him more red zone opportunities moving forward. He's
clearly the best runner in that backfield. On the other side of
the ball, Odell Beckham Jr. continues to be shut out of the end
zone, a la Cooper. Don't panic. Beckham scored 25 times in his first
two years in the league. He's drawn some difficult assignments thus
far this season, but better matchups await including the hapless
Packers secondary in Week 5.
That's all for the Buzz on this first week of October. What a ride
this season has been so far...
