The Falcons and Jets play tonight (Monday) but the bulk of preseason
Week 2 is in the books.
Every NFL team takes a little bit different approach to what
can be gained from preseason, but we take the approach here that
there is always something to be gained and/or learned from examining
the action through the lens of fantasy football. Here’s
the scoop from the weekend that was…
1. Chiefs/Commanders Running Back Fades
No two players (especially running backs) have been dropping down
fantasy rankings in August quite like Antonio
Gibson and Ronald
Jones. On Saturday, as the Chiefs and Commanders squared off,
one might have wondered if that narrative would be allowed to
shift. Nope. Washington utilized rookie Brian
Robinson Jr. out of the gate via eight touches while only
giving two carries to Gibson. Who knows exactly how Washington
will split their carries between running backs in Week 1, but
it is becoming more and more apparent that it’s likely going to
be an even timeshare at best for Gibson with J.D.
McKissic re-signed for passing down duties.
Meanwhile, Jones caught one pass for one yard as his future in
Kansas City remains muddled heading into final cuts in about a
week. At this point, Gibson is still worth a draft pick- albeit
several rounds later than was originally projected. Jones is probably
not.
2. Crickets is Actually Spelled K-M-E-T
If you read last week’s review
of Week 1, you might remember I mentioned the Bears’ passing
attack consisted of Darnell
Mooney and… crickets. But, we were reminded on Thursday evening
that there is an able source of help in the form of tight end,
Cole Kmet. Fields
was able to find Kmet twice in the first quarter for a total of
31 yards and even targeted him unsuccessfully on a third throw.
In Baltimore, Mark
Andrews is a well above average tight end, but has become
a fantasy star not only based on his own talents, but also the
lack of talent around him. And that supporting cast was and is
far superior to what Chicago is dealing with. My point is this:
Cole Kmet is going to likely finish in the top-5 among tight ends
in targets based on his prominent role in the offense and Justin
Fields need to find someone quickly upon duress. If those
targets turn into receptions on a consistent basis, you will find
that you’ve got a TE1 in the process. Adjust rankings accordingly.
3. Tribulation in Tampa
Another weekend, another serious blow to the offensive line of
the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This time, it was Aaron Stinnie, projected
starter going down. Several weeks ago, it was center, Ryan Jensen
who was lost for the season. Throw in the unexpected retirement
of Ali Marpet in the offseason and you’ve got a Tampa Bay O-line
now in total disarray. Maybe it’s just me, but offensive line
play is pretty important when you’re trying to protect, say…a
45 year-old quarterback. Especially a 45 year-old who’s been absent
from training camp for nearly two weeks. Bottom line is that Tampa
will likely find a way to cope with all these losses, but September
might be a bit rough and a slight downgrade is likely needed for
all skill position players as a result. Here’s guessing Week 3
of the preseason will see backups across the board for the beleaguered
Bucs.
4. Turbo Power in Buffalo
Some teams don’t do well in preseason on the offensive side of
the ball, but it’s hardly a concern given that starters aren’t
playing and vanilla-only offensive concepts are being employed.
That said, when a team is clicking on all cylinders in August,
it’s something you can’t fake. And, to say that Buffalo looks
like a team ready to explode on offense is like saying water is
wet at this point.
Devin Singletary
ran for nearly 10 yards a carry. James
Cook did the same. Zack
Moss and Duke
Johnson combined for 4 rushing touchdowns. The trio of Josh
Allen, Case
Keenum, and Matt
Barkley threw for over 300 yards and weren’t sacked once.
All in all, Buffalo racked up over 500 offensive yards from scrimmage
and looked like a supernova in doing so. I know the Rams defense
will offer up solid resistance in Week 1, but there’s not an offense
in the league I’m more excited about heading into the season than
this one. Don’t be afraid to reach a bit to get a Bill or two
on your team. Yes, they spread the love, particularly in the backfield,
but that love is going to come with a lot of yards and plenty
of TDs.
5. Well, if You’re Going to Pay Him that Much
No NFL player this past offseason received a more ridiculous sum
of money based on performance than Christian
Kirk in Jacksonville. It’s not that Kirk was a disappointment
during his time in Arizona - it’s just that he never established
himself as an alpha or even a prominent beta during his time in
the desert. Apparently, the Jaguars are looking to justify their
spending on Kirk by peppering him with targets as Trevor
Lawrence attempted to throw his way eight times in the first
half alone on Saturday. Kirk ended up catching 5 of those throws
for 54 yards and emerged in the process as a possible sleeper
candidate on a team that lacks much in the way of completion for
catches sans veteran Marvin
Jones. Again, if this is a sign of things to come, Kirk is
being way undervalued, particularly in PPR formats. You might
want to consider him over some guys who are currently being drafted
higher, but will only see 70% of his likely target share at best.
I guess sometimes money does talk.
6. New Dogs, Same Old Lack of Tricks
The running game in Miami has been putrid now for a number of
years and this season, Miami is attempting to flip the script
on that by bringing in not one, not two, but three veteran running
backs. First, they signed Chase
Edmonds. Then, Raheem
Mostert followed his former coach to South Beach and finally,
Sony Michel
was brought on board. But, after running for less than 3 yards
a tote in Week 1 of the preseason, the Dolphins ran for a listless
2.1 yards a carry this past weekend. Edmonds was used effectively
in the passing game (2-21), but if one is thinking a bunch of
new recruits is going to fix a decade-long problem, it might be
time for a reality check. The good news for Miami is that they
did throw for over 300 yards and so that aspect of the offense
may indeed be better. Just don’t expect the run game to get fixed
overnight… and perhaps not at all.
7. Some Love for Olave...
No one really knows at this point what the future holds for WR
Michael Thomas.
Once largely considered the best wide receiver in football, Thomas
has essentially collected two years of paychecks with almost no
production on the field to show for it. It is possible that no
player in drafts this summer is being undervalued more than Thomas,
but it’s also possible that his days of being the best WR even
on his own team are done after two injury-riddle campaigns.
Enter rookie Chris
Olave who could become the top pass catcher in New Orleans
almost immediately. Though the sample size is small, Olave looked
the part Friday night catching a nifty 20-yard touchdown pass
from reserve QB Ian
Book. Reports out of practice the past couple of weeks have
sent Olave’s value soaring in fantasy football and the actual
game action from the weekend did little to stem that optimism.
Like I said, maybe Thomas returns to being a WR1 or 2 for fantasy
purposes this year, but I think Olave has just as good a chance,
and will come at a much cheaper price on draft day.
8. ...And Some Additional Love for Nico
Often times, the WR2 on a rebuilding NFL team doesn’t garner much
love in fantasy circles given they don’t get in the end zone nearly
as much as competitive teams and thus TD opportunities are hard
to come by. But, that doesn’t mean they should be ignored altogether.
One such player who continues to look the part as a weekly option
is second-year receiver Nico
Collins in Houston. Collins has great hands, is able to separate
from defenders and is proving to be a solid red zone target. Specifically,
he made a brilliant TD catch on Friday night and ended up catching
4 balls for 48 yards on six Davis
Mills targets. Michael
Pittman Jr. is an example of a WR that made major strides
recently from Year 1 to Year 2. Maybe Nico doesn’t match that
progression stride for stride, but he should be on your radar
just the same, particularly in dynasty leagues who draft non-rookies.
9. When the Quarterback is Great, You Dig a Bit Deeper
Last week, it was noted that it’s important in fantasy football
to pay attention to the WR depth chart on great offensive teams.
That’s because a WR3 on a great offensive team can be more valuable
for fantasy purposes than many to most WR2s on lesser units. That
said, this past weekend’s game offered up another showcase for
Josh Palmer
of the LA Chargers. Palmer caught 3 balls for 75 yards and a TD
and appears to be way out in front among the options beyond Keenan
Allen and Mike
Williams. It’s important also to remember that any missed
time due to injury for Allen or Williams would likely make Palmer
a flex play at worst and a WR2 at best for fantasy usage. That
makes him worthy of a late-round flier as Justin
Herbert will make anyone who lines up out wide for significant
snaps fantasy-relevant.
10. Two Productive Tight Ends in Baltimore Likely?
Forgive the shameless play on words, but it would be impossible
not to notice what Baltimore seems to have found at the TE position
coming out of this year’s draft. Isaiah
Likely was a fourth round pick out of Coastal Carolina and
was selected most likely (did it again) to provide depth at his
position. Instead, he is putting on a show in camp and on Sunday,
that translated to 8 receptions on 8 targets for 100 yards and
a TD. That’s impressive for a tight end, even if it’s only preseason.
The last time I can remember two tight ends being the focal point
of a passing offense was the era of Gronkowski and Hernandez in
New England. Not saying that Likely is going to fit into that
frame perfectly, but he’s in the perfect situation to do so given
how little Baltimore is operating with at wide receiver. You design
an offense based on your strengths and the Ravens seem to have
found something unique in this regard. If your league allows for
a deep roster, consider Likely an intriguing late-round pick with
upside.
That’s a wrap on preseason Week 2. We’ll put a bow
on the entire exercise next week with one final recap with insights!
Until then…