When preparing for your draft, unless you are in a Super flex league,
all first round picks are likely to be running backs or wide receivers…minus
one.
Travis Kelce
is such a unique weapon at tight end that he is typically being
taken in the first twelve picks. And for good reason. He scored
89 more fantasy points than any other tight end in Half-PPR leagues
last season.
So, you’ve analyzed all the data and looked at all of your options
and decided that Kelce will indeed be your first-round pick, knowing
you may feel uneasy about passing on the RB & WR positions.
The question then becomes: How do I proceed for the remainder
of the draft? I could use the word “recover”, but taking Kelce
is a good thing and shouldn’t make you nervous. Instead, you have
an opportunity to build a unique and highly competitive team.
Here’s how:
1. Identify Value Tiers, not just Individual Player Values
Let’s say you picked 9th in the first round and took Kelce in
a league that features 12 teams. That means you would have the
16th overall pick in Round 2. It’s not enough to know who your
highest ranked player will be at that time. You need to be thinking
ahead just as you were if you were playing chess.
At what point does the value (ADP) drop off at each position and
where is that drop-off going to occur? In other words, when you
pick at No.33 and No.40 overall, what are going to be the positions
of value at that time? If you perceive that running back value
drops dramatically towards the middle of Round 3, that makes getting
a running back in Round 2 a priority.
However, if you like three or four of the running backs likely
available near the 3/4 turn, perhaps grabbing a top-8 WR is in
order.
However, if you think RB value falls off a cliff after, say,
Kenneth Walker, then perhaps getting a RB like Najee Harris at
2.04 makes more sense.
I think the value at RB drops off dramatically after the consensus
top 8 are off the board, so unless a Tony Pollard or Josh Jacobs
is available at 2.04, I would look for a WR. Like I said, it all
depends on your tiers of value.
2. Be Mindful of Your League Rules & Starting Lineup Requirements
First of all, if your league lumps wide receivers and tight ends
into one position, you can stop reading this article right now.
Travis Kelce’s first round value is dependent upon tight
end being a separate position. Assuming that’s the case,
let’s examine some important parameters as you seek to build
a team around the legendary Kansas City tight end.
First, how does the flex position work in your league? In other
words, can you start three running backs with one being the flex?
Is it possible to only start one running back alongside three
or even four wide receivers? Is this a PPR league or a non-PPR
league? Running back is a scarce position compared to WR, but
if you are in a PPR league that allows you to start only one RB,
you do not want to wait until 3.09 to grab your first WR.
Conversely, in leagues in which three RBs can be in your starting
lineup, making sure you have at least two by the end of Round 5
is probably imperative. Drafting Kelce does not put you behind the
8-ball, but it does require attention to detail moving beyond your
first-round pick. The value of RBs vs. WRs is impacted greatly by
the specific lineup requirements that your league has in place.
3. Avoid Taking Your Second Tight End Until the End of Your Draft
I have yet to see a scenario in which using a second tight end
as a flex option works well vs. utilizing a RB or WR. I suppose
if Mark Andrews fell to you at 5.09, and tight end is one of the
flex options in your league, you could consider having the duo
of Kelce and Andrews in your lineup from week to week.
But, aside from that unlikelihood, the reality of taking a tight
end in the first round is that you have to focus on getting quality
RBs and WRs on your roster. As such, I would recommend not even
addressing the position again until one of the final three rounds
of your draft – or not taking a backup tight end at all, if your
league has a short bench.
Kelce’s health history is fairly remarkable and there’s simply
no match-up out there that would cause you to bench him for another
tight end. He’ll be your every week starter all season long (minus
his bye week) giving you the luxury of not having to worry about
his backup on your roster. You can ignore the position altogether
until the final rounds even if you see a solid tight end falling
further in your draft than he should.
4. Avoid Taking a Quarterback in the First Five Rounds
I realize that for old school VBD drafters, you don’t make
statements like this, but truth be told, if you use two of your
top five picks on a TE and a QB, you’re going to be thin
at RB and WR in ways that are going to make it difficult on you,
especially when the bye weeks roll around.
Figure out in advance which QBs you are comfortable with as your
starter from Round 6 on and then attempt to land one of them around
that time frame. If you’re looking to select a high-upside,
but high risk QB like Tua Tagovailoa as your starter, you might
also need a high-end QB2.
Waiting to take a QB until at least Round 6 means that in addition
to Kelce, you will have a couple of running backs and a couple
of wide receivers or possibly even three receivers if you’re in
a league in which the lineup and scoring dynamics make that position
most valuable.
While this is my general advice, there is one more interesting
scenario to explore…
5. Throw Caution to the Wind and Select the Kelce/Mahomes Stack
I realize this suggestion contradicts nearly everything I just
said, but I have already seen this strategy employed in the first
few weeks of August and it is an intriguing option to say the
least.
Taking Kelce at 1.09 might mean that Mahomes would still be available
at 2.04 - in most leagues. If he is, then for every Mahomes-to-Kelce
completion and especially a Mahomes-to-Kelce TD, you’re
racking up points.
It also means you can avoid taking a second QB until very late
in the draft as well. Using your first two picks on Kelce then
Mahomes, will require eight consecutive picks at least on RBs
and WRs. That won’t yield you any top tier guys at those
positions, but it should give you enough depth at both to find
combinations that work as the season goes on.
I am personally more comfortable with taking Kelce and then waiting
on a QB, but the “stack” approach when it comes to
two of the most reliable scorers in fantasy football is something
that shouldn’t be ignored.
So, based on these recommendations, what would an ideal Travis Kelce-led team look like? Based on where I have my value tiers
and on a league that allows the flex player to be either a RB
or WR, here’s how it might shake out:
Of course, it’s possible those targets would be snatched
up just prior to your picks. My point is not to tell you “who”
to draft, but give a path forward in terms of best case scenario
for a Kelce team. If Tony Pollard, for example, lasted until 2.04,
you could take him and then look to add WRs in two, if not all,
of the next three rounds.
Knowing your tiers of value makes all the difference in how you
react when constructing a team with Kelce in Round 1. Knowing
the nuances of your scoring system and lineup requirements matters
a great deal, too.
Above all, don’t draft scared. Taking Travis
Kelce in the first round still leaves you with a number of
viable paths as your draft proceeds.