A couple of weeks back,
I attempted to identify the QBs, RBs, and WRs most at risk of falling
from the Top 10 ranks this coming season. This week, I’ll
be focusing on those players who I think have the potential to fill
the expected vacancies. Let’s get right to it…
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s default standard
scoring.
A quick reminder of the Top 10 fantasy QBs from last season…
Quarterbacks Most Likely to Rise in
2013:
The effecient Wilson can crack the top
ten in 2013.
Russell
Wilson, SEA: Wilson’s 2012 debut was a two-act performance
that had us yawning at intermission and shouting “bravo!” from the
balconies by the time the curtain fell. Through the season’s first
eight weeks, the Seahawks’ rook averaged a pedestrian 15.8 points
per game and topped the 20-point mark only twice. In the second
half of the campaign, he went completely bonkers, notching a nifty
25.9 points per contest and failing to top the 20-point mark only
once. Put another way, he was on his way to being Ryan Tannehill
(15.3 PPG on the year) and instead ended up doing his best Aaron
Rodgers impersonation (25.6 PPG).
OK, so the former Badger isn’t threatening to replace Sconny’s
other favorite adopted son atop the quarterback heap just yet. He
is, however, in the elite QB discussion after just 16 professional
games—pretty heady stuff for a former draft-day afterthought.
Wilson combines the precision of Tom Brady with the rushing ability
of Steve Young and the pocket pluck of Fran Tarkenton, all in a
package about the size of Drew Brees. Naturally, it’s that
last characteristic, his smallish stature, which kept the lid on
Wilson’s draft stock last April and prevented NFL scouts from
seeing him for what he truly is: a playmaker, a consummate field
general, and a winner.
Strangely, winning is the only thing that might prevent last year’s
11th-ranked QB from cracking this year’s Top 10. The Hawks
won by 20 or more points an impressive five times in 2012, and in
those games Wilson averaged only 19.2 pass attempts. Though he still
tallied his fantasy points thanks to insane efficiency and plenty
of six-pointers (both rushing and passing), the limited opportunities
are at least mildly concerning, especially if you think Seattle
will be even better in 2013.
Andy
Dalton, CIN: Standing immediately behind Wilson on the
Top 10 doorstep last season was Cincinnati’s young Dalton, a hugely
underrated option at the position who’s very quietly put together
one of the best starts to a quarterbacking career in…well, in NFL
history. You want proof? Fair enough. Here’s an exhaustive list
of quarterbacks who have thrown for at least 20 touchdown passes
in their first two seasons: Dan Marino, Peyton
Manning, and Dalton. Yup, that’s the list.
Touchdown tosses aren’t the only measure of greatness, of
course, and Dalton’s ceiling probably isn’t Canton,
Ohio. Nevertheless, he’s proven capable of doing two things
quite consistently thus far: moving an offense and winning football
games. Sound familiar? The TCU alum certainly lacks Wilson’s
overall improvisational skills and also turns the ball over too
often (29 picks and 6 lost fumbles so far). He’s very accurate,
however, throws the ball a lot more often than Seattle’s young
star, and isn’t exactly roadkill when he’s forced to
tuck it away and escape the pocket (four rushing TDs in 2012). Plus,
did I mention he’s a winner? In Cincinnati? Anyone who can
lead the Bengals to two straight playoff appearances deserves our
attention.
The next step for Dalton will be actually carrying that regular
season success into the postseason (he’s stunk in both Wildcard
games). To that end, management delivered more help this past April,
drafting dynamic running back Giovanni Bernard and field-stretching
tight end Tyler Eifert. The former should be a dangerous check-down
outlet from day one while the latter will pose instant matchup problems
for smaller defenders, especially in the red zone. Add those two
targets to the existing superstar on hand, A.J. Green, and Dalton
et al. may be able to transform “playoff appearances”
into “playoff victories” this coming year.
Jay
Cutler, CHI: A funny thing happened on the way to fantasy
superstardom. Five years ago, Cutler announced himself as an elite
option at the position, ranking third overall after a 4,500-yard,
25-touchdown season with the Broncos. Almost immediately thereafter,
he clashed with incoming coach Josh McDaniels, demanded and received
a trade to the Bears, and has suffered declining numbers in every
single season since, bottoming out in 2012 at 16.7 points per game,
his lowest career output.
My regular readers already know how I feel about Cutler the human
being (poisonous personality), but I guess I’ve always been willing
to give Cutler the quarterback the benefit of the doubt. Very few
quarterbacks possess his unique physical gifts, after all, a cannon-like
right arm and above-average mobility. In the right scheme and with
good protection—things he had in Denver—he can clearly be one of
the most accomplished triggermen in the business. Unfortunately,
he’s been consistently miscast in Lovie Smith’s punchless Chicago
offenses and has spent the better part of four years running for
his life behind shabby offensive lines (2.64 sacks per start since
2009, trailing only Aaron
Rodgers and Ben
Roethlisberger).
The Bears’ brain trust addressed both problems this past offseason,
giving Cutler every chance to succeed in perhaps his final season
at the helm (he’s in the final year of his contract). First,
they cut ties with Smith and hired Marc Trestman, a quarterback-friendly
shot caller who’s been exiled in the CFL for half a decade.
Second, with their first-round pick they went out and drafted Oregon’s
Kyle Long (Go Ducks!), a gigantic and athletic guard prospect who
should shore up a balky offensive front. If both of those moves
pay off, His Surliness could reverse a downward trajectory and leap
into the Top 10 once again.
Next: Running Backs
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