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Joseph Hutchins | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Top 10 Newcomers - Quarterbacks
Which QBs will rise into the fantasy top ten in 2014?
8/18/14
Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers

A couple weeks ago, I identified those quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers I believe are most likely to tumble from the ranks of the top 10 this coming season. Now it’s time to discuss the guys who I think are capable of replacing them in 2014.

Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s default standard scoring.

A quick reminder of the Top 10 fantasy QBs from last season…

  Top 10 Quarterbacks - 2013
Rank Player
1 Peyton Manning
2 Drew Brees
3 Andy Dalton
4 Matthew Stafford
5 Cam Newton
6 Philip Rivers
7 Andrew Luck
8 Ben Roethlisberger
9 Matt Ryan
10 Russell Wilson


Quarterbacks Most Likely to Rise in 2014:

Tony Romo

Romo has topped 4000 yards in four of eight seasons.

Tony Romo, DAL: Tony Romo, DAL: I also pegged Romo as a Top 10 Riser last year, so he’s a prima facie case of frustrated expectations and underachievement, right? Not exactly. Despite failing to meet this guy’s fantasy expectations, he had by far his best season as a pro, leading the league in passer rating, completion percentage, and yards per attempt. Not surprisingly, the ‘Boys parlayed his vastly improved efficiency into an NFC East crown and only missed a shot at the NFC title by the narrowest, and most controversial, of margins: Dez Bryant’s failure to complete the catch “process” at Lambeau Field.

So how did Romo end up outside the Top 10 looking in? For starters, he did something no Top 10 quarterback did in 2014 (or 2013, for that matter): He missed a game. That’s unfortunate because his 21.8 PPG mark was plenty good enough to vault him into that elite group (right between Eli Manning and Philip Rivers). He likely would have overcome that missed action, nevertheless, had he simply attempted more passes, something many expected him to do under the historically pass-happy Scott Linehan, Dallas’ new offensive coordinator. Instead, Linehan called DeMarco Murray;s number a staggering 392 times and let him run wild behind the league’s best offensive line. Nobody had amassed that many rushing attempts, for perspective, since Larry Johnson way back in 2006.

That offensive line is still in place, but Murray has since moved on to Philly and there doesn’t appear to be anybody left on the Dallas roster capable of handling that kind of load. Thus, it seems plausible the Cowboys will rely more heavily on their well-protected signal caller and his stable of very capable targets this coming season. That, of course, bodes well for Romo’s prospects of attaining Top 10 status in 2015.

Cam Newton, CAR: Newton was just slightly better than Romo on a per-game basis, 22.3 points to 21.8, and also missed action (two games worth) which prevented him from being a Top 10 quarterback. That’s about where the statistical similarities end, however. While Dallas’ triggerman was completing almost 70% of his passes, sporting a slick 34-to-9 TD-to-INT ratio, and leading his team deep into the playoffs, Newton was completing a shaky 59% of his throws, tossing just 18 TD strikes against 12 picks (to go with five fumbles), and…leading his 7-8-1 team deep into the playoffs. Who says numbers never lie?

Big Cam commonly draws physical comparisons to Big Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh’s franchise flinger, but the similarities are, again, largely superficial. They’re gigantic men who happen to play quarterback. The end. Both statistically and physically, therefore, Newton appears to be in a class all by himself, for good reasons and for bad. He’s a prototypical pocket passer who is, sadly, highly erratic and turnover-prone. He’s also, on the flip side, a speedy and agile dual-threat field general who makes up for his passing deficiencies by gashing opponents on the ground. It isn’t always pretty when Newton racks up his fantasy bottom line, but that bottom line rarely wavers: He’s averaged between 22.3 and 27.6 PPG in all four of his professional seasons.

To do it again in 2015, he’ll need to stay healthy and get a little more help from his teammates now that Kelvin Benjamin (ACL) is out for the year. The Panthers added Devin Funchess through the draft and also added some peripheral weapons, Ted Ginn Jr. and Jarrett Boykin, via free agency. It remains to be seen if the Panthers will hit the free agent market for receiver help, but if the aging duo of Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert can keep opposing defenses honest on the ground, Newton’s own ground game and current receiving corps should be enough to reclaim his spot in the Top 10.

Sam Bradford, PHI: Romo and Newton look like Favre-esque ironmen compared to the habitually hobbled Bradford. In just five years as a Ram, the former No.1 overall pick missed over 30 games, including one entire season (last season), and tore the same ACL twice. Why even bother with a guy who’s shown basically no ability to stay healthy, you ask? No you don’t because you already know the answer: Charles “Chip” Kelly.

Chipper’s been squarely in the media crosshairs of late for his alleged failings as a manager of NFL personalities, but you don’t hear anyone denying his Xs and Os. Since he took over in Philly back in 2013, Kelly’s Eagles have finished no worse than fifth overall in either total offense or total points. This despite utilizing far from elite talent under center. Nick Foles, a skinny third-rounder with lead feet, posted the third most efficient season in NFL history after replacing the injured Michael Vick. Though Mark Sanchez wasn’t as efficient replacing the injured Foles last season, he still managed 21.3 points per game, not a whole lot fewer than the aforementioned and hugely efficient Romo.

But back to Bradford. Why exactly will he be an improvement over Foles and Sanchez? I’m not saying he will, but let’s presume, for spits and giggles, he does make it through an entire 16-game slate. The last time he did that was in 2012 and he managed a respectable 18 PPG, despite lousy weapons. In the first seven games of 2013, before he injured his knee, he’d upped that average to 20.5. Is it really so hard to imagine Bradford averaging in the neighborhood of 22-23 points per contest in Kelly’s higher-octane attack? If he does, he’ll be in Cam Newton territory and you’ll be calling me a soothsayer.

Next: Running Backs