A couple weeks ago, I identified those quarterbacks,
running backs, and wide
receivers I believe are most likely to tumble from the ranks
of the top 10 this coming season. Now it’s time to discuss
the guys who I think are capable of replacing them in 2014.
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s default standard
scoring.
A quick reminder of the Top 10 fantasy QBs from last season…
Quarterbacks Most Likely to Rise in
2014:
Romo has topped 4000 yards in four of eight
seasons.
Tony
Romo, DAL: Tony Romo, DAL: I also pegged Romo as a Top
10 Riser last year, so he’s a prima facie case of frustrated
expectations and underachievement, right? Not exactly. Despite failing
to meet this guy’s fantasy expectations, he had by far his
best season as a pro, leading the league in passer rating, completion
percentage, and yards per attempt. Not surprisingly, the ‘Boys
parlayed his vastly improved efficiency into an NFC East crown and
only missed a shot at the NFC title by the narrowest, and most controversial,
of margins: Dez Bryant’s failure to complete the catch “process”
at Lambeau Field.
So how did Romo end up outside the Top 10 looking in? For starters,
he did something no Top 10 quarterback did in 2014 (or 2013, for
that matter): He missed a game. That’s unfortunate because
his 21.8 PPG mark was plenty good enough to vault him into that
elite group (right between Eli Manning and Philip Rivers). He likely
would have overcome that missed action, nevertheless, had he simply
attempted more passes, something many expected him to do under the
historically pass-happy Scott Linehan, Dallas’ new offensive
coordinator. Instead, Linehan called DeMarco Murray;s number a staggering
392 times and let him run wild behind the league’s best offensive
line. Nobody had amassed that many rushing attempts, for perspective,
since Larry Johnson way back in 2006.
That offensive line is still in place, but Murray has since moved
on to Philly and there doesn’t appear to be anybody left on
the Dallas roster capable of handling that kind of load. Thus, it
seems plausible the Cowboys will rely more heavily on their well-protected
signal caller and his stable of very capable targets this coming
season. That, of course, bodes well for Romo’s prospects of
attaining Top 10 status in 2015.
Cam Newton, CAR: Newton was just slightly better than Romo on a
per-game basis, 22.3 points to 21.8, and also missed action (two
games worth) which prevented him from being a Top 10 quarterback.
That’s about where the statistical similarities end, however.
While Dallas’ triggerman was completing almost 70% of his
passes, sporting a slick 34-to-9 TD-to-INT ratio, and leading his
team deep into the playoffs, Newton was completing a shaky 59% of
his throws, tossing just 18 TD strikes against 12 picks (to go with
five fumbles), and…leading his 7-8-1 team deep into the playoffs.
Who says numbers never lie?
Big Cam commonly draws physical comparisons to Big Ben Roethlisberger,
Pittsburgh’s franchise flinger, but the similarities are,
again, largely superficial. They’re gigantic men who happen
to play quarterback. The end. Both statistically and physically,
therefore, Newton appears to be in a class all by himself, for good
reasons and for bad. He’s a prototypical pocket passer who
is, sadly, highly erratic and turnover-prone. He’s also, on
the flip side, a speedy and agile dual-threat field general who
makes up for his passing deficiencies by gashing opponents on the
ground. It isn’t always pretty when Newton racks up his fantasy
bottom line, but that bottom line rarely wavers: He’s averaged
between 22.3 and 27.6 PPG in all four of his professional seasons.
To do it again in 2015, he’ll need to stay healthy and get
a little more help from his teammates now that Kelvin Benjamin (ACL)
is out for the year. The Panthers added Devin Funchess through the
draft and also added some peripheral weapons, Ted Ginn Jr. and Jarrett
Boykin, via free agency. It remains to be seen if the Panthers will
hit the free agent market for receiver help, but if the aging duo
of Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert can keep opposing defenses
honest on the ground, Newton’s own ground game and current
receiving corps should be enough to reclaim his spot in the Top
10.
Sam Bradford, PHI: Romo and Newton look like Favre-esque ironmen
compared to the habitually hobbled Bradford. In just five years
as a Ram, the former No.1 overall pick missed over 30 games, including
one entire season (last season), and tore the same ACL twice. Why
even bother with a guy who’s shown basically no ability to
stay healthy, you ask? No you don’t because you already know
the answer: Charles “Chip” Kelly.
Chipper’s been squarely in the media crosshairs of late for
his alleged failings as a manager of NFL personalities, but you
don’t hear anyone denying his Xs and Os. Since he took over
in Philly back in 2013, Kelly’s Eagles have finished no worse
than fifth overall in either total offense or total points. This
despite utilizing far from elite talent under center. Nick Foles,
a skinny third-rounder with lead feet, posted the third most efficient
season in NFL history after replacing the injured Michael Vick.
Though Mark Sanchez wasn’t as efficient replacing the injured
Foles last season, he still managed 21.3 points per game, not a
whole lot fewer than the aforementioned and hugely efficient Romo.
But back to Bradford. Why exactly will he be an improvement over
Foles and Sanchez? I’m not saying he will, but let’s
presume, for spits and giggles, he does make it through an entire
16-game slate. The last time he did that was in 2012 and he managed
a respectable 18 PPG, despite lousy weapons. In the first seven
games of 2013, before he injured his knee, he’d upped that
average to 20.5. Is it really so hard to imagine Bradford averaging
in the neighborhood of 22-23 points per contest in Kelly’s
higher-octane attack? If he does, he’ll be in Cam Newton territory
and you’ll be calling me a soothsayer.
Next: Running Backs
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