Recently, we’ve been discussing some 2017 fantasy heavyweights—QBs,
RBs,
and WRs—who
stand a reasonably good chance of frustrating expectations this
coming season. Now it’s time to discuss those up-and-comers
who could conceivably replace them and become the fantasy heavyweights
of 2018.
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s default standard
scoring.
A quick reminder of the Top 10 fantasy QBs from last season...
Drew
Brees, NO: The last time Drew Brees finished a season
outside the Top 10 at his position, my daughter had just turned
a year old. She’s now a few short weeks away from starting
high school (gulp). Any parent will tell you it goes way too fast,
but parenting years aren’t NFL years and 13+ years is a veritable
eternity in the NFL. The Saints’ Hall of Fame-bound wheelman
has been at the top of his game for a really long time, in other
words, and while there’s no doubt he’s closer to the
end than the beginning, there are plenty of reasons to think his
tenure as a quarterbacking A-lister isn’t completely over.
Brees threw just 537 passes in 2017, ending a string of seven straight
seasons with 600+ attempts. That amounted to 136 fewer than he’d
tossed in 2016, a sudden and staggering 20% drop in usage. The decline
in attempts was not indicative of declining skills or poor health,
interestingly, but rather a deliberate attempt on Sean Payton’s
part to establish a new offensive identity. It worked. New Orleans
dropped only from first to second in total offense (behind NE) and
ended a three-season rut of 7-9 records by finishing 11-5 to win
the NFC South.
The Saints aren’t likely to return to their pass-happy ways
this season, but even a slight uptick in usage would elevate Brees
back into the Top 10. He only missed it by about four points last
year (one TD) and his fantasy point-per-attempt rate (0.60) was
only barely off his 2016 pace (0.63). There’s a very logical
reason to expect that aforementioned uptick, moreover: Mark Ingram,
one half of New Orleans’ two-headed RB monster, serves a four-game
suspension to start the season. Expect more passes and more points
in 2018.
Mahomes may be working with the most explosive
collection of skill position players in the league.
Patrick
Mahomes, KC: The training camp info warriors were busy
dealing down in St. Joseph, MO last week as the Chiefs’ sophomore
slinger threw 7 interceptions over six practice sessions, a sloppiness
not exhibited in KC red and gold since the Matt Cassel era. Maybe
Mahomes isn’t quite ready for prime time, they seemed to suggest.
Maybe he’s too much of a risk-taker in the risk-averse world of
the NFL. Maybe, just maybe, the Chiefs will rue the day they shipped
their Steady Eddie game manager, Alex Smith, off to DC and went
all in on a riverboat gambler. To which Andy Reid essentially replied
(and I echo)…FAKE NEWS!
Mahomes, despite a single game of NFL experience, is already being
compared to some of the game’s greats (namely, Brett Favre)
and the reason why is simple: ridiculous arm talent. It’s
neither a necessary nor sufficient condition of professional success—see
Joe Montana and Jeff George, respectively—but cannon-like
arms, when combined with accuracy, good-enough wheels, and a Texas-sized
helping of moxie, can be hazardous to the health of NFL defensive
coordinators. The former Red Raider and namesake of a big league
pitcher possesses all of these things.
It certainly doesn’t hurt that he’ll be working with,
arguably, the most talented/explosive collection of skill position
players in the whole league. In Kareem Hunt and Spencer Ware, he
has a RB tandem that can keep opposing pass rushers honest. In Travis
Kelce, he has a walking/trash-talking mismatch of a TE. In Tyreek
Hill and Sammy Watkins, he has a couple of blazers who can legitimately
test his howitzer of a right arm. Finally, in Coach Reid, Mahomes
has a veteran of the NFL wars and an offensive tactician who knows
how to deploy these assets. Believe the hype.
Marcus
Mariota, TEN: It’s tricky projecting the performance
of new players in established systems (e.g., Mahomes, Alex Smith,
Kirk Cousins), but trickier still, in many ways, projecting the
performance of an established player in a new system. We already
know Marcus Mariota can be a successful quarterback, despite a clear
statistical step back in 2017. What we don’t know is how he’ll
fare in an entirely new system conceived and orchestrated by a coach—new
offensive coordinator, Matt LaFleur—who has never been a primary
play caller at any level of the game. Here’s my best guess
based on LaFleur’s stated intention to “tailor”
his offense to the talents of his players: very well.
Mike Mularkey’s stubborn refusal to make the system fit the
players instead of the other way around is likely what got him fired
despite leading Tennessee to its first playoff appearance and surprising
playoff victory after a nine-year absence. His “exotic smashmouth”
offense was nothing more than a snazzy name for a tired/anachronistic
scheme. He didn’t seem to know (or possibly care) what he
had in Mariota, a quintessential dual-threat QB who is exponentially
more dangerous optioning oncoming defenders or rolling out than
he is standing in the pocket like a sitting duck (GO DUCKS!). LaFleur
does know and has seen this movie before when he was QB coach for
Washington in 2012 (think RGIII Offensive ROY).
Two other things working in Mariota’s favor this season are
upgraded weapons and a cupcake schedule. Corey Davis is ready to
assume the WR1 role he likely would have seized in training camp
last year, had he not missed most of it, while Dion Lewis adds a
dynamic run/pass element in the backfield. The Titans also face
the league’s second-easiest schedule, despite that playoff
success. Marcus finally makes the leap this season.
