The only constant at the top is inconstancy, as we’ve been
talking about the past week or so. Regardless of whether I’m
right about the who—which top QBs, RBs, and WRs from last
year, in particular, will fall from grace in 2021—we already
know I’m right about the what: Many, if not most of them,
certainly will. The historical data is overwhelming on that point,
friends. So who are this season’s “disruptors”
best positioned to replace last year’s studs? Let’s
break it down.
A quick reminder of the Top 10 fantasy WRs from last season…
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s
Non-PPR league scoring.
Keenan
Allen, LAC: If there’s been a more
consistent WR the past four years...name him. Since missing almost
all of the 2016 season due to a torn ACL, Allen has been remarkably
consistent, notching about 100 receptions, 6-8 TDs, and northward
of 10+ FPts/G. Had he not missed two games last year, his first
in since that lost 2016 season, we might not be talking about him
in this spot. As it stands, he’s coming off a WR17 season and now
looks to build rapport with his sensational sophomore QB, Justin
Herbert.
There are certainly more dynamic, athletic, highlight-generating
pass grabbers in the NFL, but what makes Allen special for fantasy
GMs is his boring predictability and elite target share. In that
four-year stretch from 2017 to last season, he ranked 5th, 12th,
6th, and 5th in WR targets. Add in two-plus more games of expected
targets in 2020 (he missed most of Weeks 5 and 15, as well) and
he’d have very possibly led the league in the category, arguably
the most important for a fantasy wide receiver. More opportunity
equals more production, all things being equal.
Los Angeles will run it back with pretty much the same wideouts
in 2021—Allen, Mike
Williams, and Jalen
Guyton—but upgrades along the offensive line and the return
of Austin Ekeler
could make for a more comfortable Herbert, perhaps unleashing the
full power of that rocket launcher of a right arm. I’ll probably
talk myself into drafting Big Mike again (cheaper, more explosive,
and I just can’t help myself), but if I’m being honest, Allen is
the Chargers receiver to own. This has been the case for many years
running now, so don’t overcomplicate matters. He’s the WR1 in a
rising offense and a great bet to crack the Top 10.
Terry McLaurin,
WAS: On paper, there aren’t too many better marriages than
a speedy, productive WR and a veteran QB who’s spent the last several
years casting caution aside and routinely driving the ball down
the field. Fitzmagic can slap singles and doubles around, sure,
but he’s more inclined to swing for the fences these days, as evidenced
by his QB7 ranking in yards/attempt last year and his QB1 ranking
in 2018 with Tampa. That has to be music to Scary Terry’s ears after
he spent most of last year shagging balls from a bottom three QB
room. Only Giants and Jets QBs scored fewer QB fantasy points than
WFT (which maybe doesn’t say much for quarterback play in the Big
Apple, yeah?).
McLaurin’s WR20 performance was actually very impressive when
you consider the other WR options Washington paired with that woeful
quarterback crew: the Sims tandem (Cam and Steven), Isaiah Wright,
and Dontrelle Inman. Yeesh. Is it any wonder the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th
best passing game options were RBs (J.D. McKissic and Antonio Gibson)
and Logan Thomas? McLaurin will still be the focal point for opposing
secondaries in 2021, but there are more dangerous, productive playmates
to worry about now, Curtis Samuel and Adam Humphries, namely, not
to mention third-rounder Dyami Brown, a home-run hitter from Tobacco
Road. Paired with last year’s top performers, WFT fans have
a right to be excited about this coming season.
I’ve already predicted a Top 10 finish for McLaurin’s
teammate, Gibson, so maybe I’m a little TOO giddy about the
expected turnaround in our nation’s capital. Until Fitz trades
in the shoulder pads for the porch swing, however, anything could
happen. My money’s on Ron Rivera’s boys to be significantly
better than last year’s NFC East “champions.”
Grab McLaurin in drafts.
Brandin
Cooks, HOU: The two New York teams
have a long way to go to reclaim relevance, but no organization
has a steeper mountain to climb than Houston, which is shocking
when you consider how recently the team was competitive. Since their
2019-20 playoff appearance (only 16 games ago!), the Texans have
been in a violent tailspin, trading away precious draft picks, cutting
or selling off top talent for parts, and then sitting by helplessly
while their franchise quarterback—who doesn’t want to play for them,
anyway—gets swallowed up whole by scandal. About the only thing
Houston shot callers got right this past year and a half was canning
Bill O’Brien, who didn’t properly value draft capital or know how
to keep the talent happy.
All of which makes for a weird preamble to proclaiming that Cooks,
the best player on a terrible team, has a chance to be a Top 10
interloper in 2021. Houston’s offense will almost certainly
be a bottom five unit and if the team wins more than three games,
I’ll eat my Stetson (I’ll have to buy one first). Nevertheless,
Watson’s presumed replacement, Tyrod Taylor, has had success
before and will spend most afternoons coming from (way) behind.
That creates lots of opportunities for the established Cooks, who
will command a huge target share. Taylor’s other options?
Chris Conley, Andre Roberts (43 receptions since 2015), rookie Nico Collins, Keke Coutee, and Anthony Miller. :-|
It’s also important to note that, despite playing for four
different NFL franchises, Cooks has FIVE 1,000-yard seasons to his
credit. Those were achieved playing with much better QBs (Brees,
Brady, and Watson), but at some point it’s fair to throw some
credit his way. So long as Taylor or equivalent keeps throwing PASSES
his way, the Top 10 is in reach.
