Through three weeks of the 2009 season,
13 running backs had carried the ball 25 or more times in a game.
Fast-forward five years (2014) and that number dropped to 9. Fast-forward
to the present day and that number plummets all the way down to
one. You’re looking at him. Mack toted the pigskin exactly
25 times in the opener to the tune of 174 yards and a stellar
7.0 YPC clip. Though it wasn’t enough—Indy dropped
a close one to the Chargers—it was an encouraging sign the
Luck-less Colts might still be viable offensively in 2019. I actually
never doubted it (Jacoby Brissett can play) but did assume more
of the load might shift to Mr. Mack. It has so far (over 20 carries
per game) and that’s unlikely to change against a vagabond
Raiders squad Sunday. He’s a strong RB1 candidate this week.
If Saquon Barkley’s high ankle sprain
proves anything, it’s that you can never get too comfortable
with your running back resources and should always be looking
for fringe flex candidates to fill in the cracks. Austin Ekeler
used to qualify but graduated to first chair when Mel Gordon decided
to sit this season out (until now). That leaves Jackson as LA’s
current second fiddle. Most weeks, this would translate to 5-7
carries and a too-low ceiling. This isn’t most weeks. This
is Dolphins week for the Bolts and that could mean surprisingly
satisfactory numbers for the Northwestern product. The Fish are
yielding over two bills on the ground per game (over five per
carry) and opponents are running it almost 40 times per contest.
Ekeler has never once carried the rock 20 times in a game, so...do
the math and sneak Mr. Jackson into your lineups.
RB38 is not where Mixon’s owners,
or really anyone, thought he’d be ranked through the first
three weeks of 2019. In some ways, though, it’s a minor
miracle he’s ranked even that high after scoring 4.4 points
COMBINED in his first two outings. Make that 6.2 in his first
two and a half outings. That 18-yard first half effort against
the Bills last weekend had to cause panic, but he rallied in the
second half, as did his Bengals, and ultimately ended up with
a respectable 15.5-point day. Whew! A trip to Heinz Field wouldn’t
normally be the best thing for building off that gained momentum,
but this isn’t your typical Steelers team. The offense is
a shell of its former self and the defense hasn’t so far
been able to compensate, surrendering 25.9 FPts/G to opposing
backs. Start Mixon Monday.
If you want to know how good Chicago’s
defense is, go watch clips of Chicago’s offense from Weeks
1 and 2 and then do the mental gymnastics required to figure out
how the team is possibly sitting at 3-1 after this next weekend.
Mitchell Trubisky has regressed big time in year three, despite
a strong statistical effort Monday night, and is dragging down
all boats, Montgomery’s included. The rook’s totals
weren’t bad against Washington (16 touches for 81 yards)
but almost half those touches and more than half the yards came
on Chicago’s final, clock-slaying drive. In a more competitive
game, I’d be highly skeptical he could provide much value
outside of a cheap TD. This Sunday’s divisional showdown
with the Vikes should be a lot more competitive and is shaping
up to be a low-scoring affair. I’d be very reluctant to
start Montgomery this weekend.
Freeman carried the ball 14 times in 2018
due to leg and groin injuries, a total he’s already surpassed
in 2019 (35). His only competition is Ito Smith now that Tevin Coleman calls San Francisco home, and that, along with above-average
receiving chops, makes him an intriguing option the rest of the
way as he works himself back into form. I’m not certain
the rest of the way starts this coming Sunday, however. Atlanta
RBs are averaging only 9.3 FPts/G thus far and only one team is
worse (you know who). Freeman’s done most of that rushing,
is still looking for his first score, and now draws a Tennessee
defense that held Leonard Fournette to -3 yards on 14 carries...and
69 yards on one. Freeman’s a great buy-low candidate, I
think, as he regains his sea legs, but wait another week or two.
Michel wasn’t much better than Fournette
in New England’s Week 3 drubbing of the Jets (nine carries
for 11 yards), but offset his paltry totals with a six-pointer
instead of a 69-yard jaunt. That ho-hum, 7.1-point day was troubling
in light of James White’s surprise baby leave and also when
coupled with Michel’s Week 1 effort (15 carries for 14 yards).
If you’re scoring at home, that’s a ghastly 1.04 YPC
clip in Weeks 1 and 3 for the former Georgia Bulldog. I don’t
pretend to know what goes on in Bill Belichick’s mind (nobody
should) but I’m fairly certain his tolerance for a yard-per-carry
meal ticket isn’t very high, right now or ever. If Michel
struggles early in the showdown of undefeateds at Orchard Park
this Sunday, you can expect to see a lot more Rex Burkhead and
that familiar side helping of White.
