Notes:
- Green highlight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
Bengals vs Rams
- (Caron) Line: LAR -4.0 Total: 49.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: Former Heisman trophy winning quarterback Joe Burrow
now has the chance to become a Super Bowl champion in just his
second professional season. Burrow went on a tear this year, particularly
down the stretch, and he certainly has been the leader of what
has become one of the league’s most high-powered offenses.
Burrow has thrown 12 touchdown passes with just two interceptions
over his past five starts, including the playoffs. Perhaps most
impressively is that Burrow has bucked the trend of rookie quarterbacks
typically only being able to deliver one fantasy-relevant pass
catcher, as both Tee Higgins and rookie Ja’Marr Chase have
been high quality fantasy assets.
For the Super Bowl, it sounds as though Chase is likely to be
shadowed by superstar cornerback Jalen Ramsey. While Ramsey has
been beaten by a few receivers this season and Chase shouldn’t
be completely neglected for fantasy, a date with Ramsey is certainly
not a great situation for him. Instead, this looks like an opportunity
for Higgins to shine on the biggest stage of them all. Higgins
has quietly been targeted an impressive 36 times over his past
four games with Burrow behind center. With Chase likely to be
locked in battle with Ramsey for most of the afternoon, look for
Higgins to be the top target for the Bengals in the Super Bowl.
The other two top pass catching weapons for the Bengals are slot
receiver Tyler Boyd and tight end C.J. Uzomah. Boyd has quietly
become a red zone weapon for the Bengals late in the season and
while that may be a bit fluky due to his lack of overall usage,
there’s a decent chance that he also sees a bit of an uptick
in targets given the Rams’ overall defensive scheme. He’s
a high variance option that could result in a dud, but there’s
a decent chance that he gets into the end zone. Uzomah, meanwhile,
has been battling a knee injury and has missed practice throughout
the week, but most reporters and head coach Zac Taylor seem to
believe that he’ll be good to go for the game. Uzomah was
used heavily against the Raiders and Titans in the playoffs and
may be a good pivot for DFS given that Tyler Higbee is more well-known
than he is. Still, he’s only seen more than seven targets
in one game this season so his overall upside is limited.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: Joe Mixon came into the 2021 season with
a lot of fantasy players calling him “injury-prone,”
but he’s certainly done a great job defying that label.
Not only did Mixon play in every game this season (with the exception
of Week 18’s contest in which the Bengals did not play any
of their starters), but he also touched the ball at least 11 times
in every contest while finishing as a top five PPR running back
on the year. That heavy workload hasn’t slowed down in the
playoffs, either, as Mixon has now touched the ball at least 20
times in every playoff contest, completely dominating the touches
out of the Cincinnati backfield in the process.
This week he faces a Rams defense that, while talented, was only
about middle-of-the-pack in containing opposing running backs
this season. They also gave up some receiving games to running
backs throughout the year, including a nine catch game to Giovani
Bernard, an eight catch game to D’Andre Swift, and a nine
catch game to James Conner. Mixon’s usage in the passing
game is typically strong as it is, but it’s been particularly
high late in the season and into the playoffs as he’s now
caught 26 passes over his past five games. That receiving game
usage is the biggest reason why Mixon should be considered the
RB1 in the Super Bowl.
Passing
Game Thoughts: For years Matthew Stafford was blamed
by the media for failing to carry his Detroit Lions out of the
league’s toilet, but he’s now getting a chance to
shut everyone up in his first season in Los Angeles. Stafford’s
Rams are the betting favorite playing at their home stadium in
what will truly be a defining moment in Stafford’s chances
of potentially being a Hall of Famer.
Stafford was a bit sloppy late in the regular season, throwing
seven interceptions in his final three games, but he’s cleaned
things up during Los Angeles’ playoff run, having thrown
two touchdowns in each of his three games while throwing just
one interception. Not only that, but he threw for 366 yards against
the Buccaneers and 337 yards against the 49ers as the Rams really
leaned heavily on him to be the focal point of their offense.
Look for that to continue in the Super Bowl as the Bengals have
a beatable secondary. While Cincinnati finished roughly in the
middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points given up to opposing
quarterbacks this season, a deeper dive into their schedule would
show you that they played an extremely weak schedule of opposing
quarterbacks. The best fantasy QBs they faced included Aaron Rodgers,
Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes, who all threw
for over 250 yards against the Bengals. All but one of them also
threw for multiple touchdown passes, with the only exception being
Jackson who instead ran for 88 yards against them and still had
an excellent fantasy day. Sure, Cincinnati has shut down some
of the league’s worst quarterbacks, but Stafford is absolutely
not in that category and this looks like a potential shootout
for him to exploit.
While Stafford is the quarterback, the true breakout superstar
for the Rams this season has been wide receiver Cooper Kupp. Kupp
completely dominated during the regular season, finishing as the
league leader in receptions (145), receiving yards (1,947) and
touchdowns (16) with very few competitors even within striking
distance with the season ended. Kupp has continued that incredible
production right on into the playoffs where he has now been targeted
a ridiculous 32 times in three games, catching 25 of those passes
for 386 yards and four touchdowns. He has not finished a game
with fewer than five receptions this season and don’t expect
the Super Bowl to be where he breaks that streak. He’s the
WR1 in this game and it’s really not close.
Fellow wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has also seen a nice career
resurgence since joining the Rams and while much of that was fueled
by an unsustainable touchdown pace, Beckham may have finally put
something more substantial on the board this past week in a game
he didn’t even score in. Beckham was targeted 11 times,
catching nine of those passes for 113 yards against the 49ers
and he was instrumental in the Rams’ passing game not just
in the red zone, but everywhere on the field. We hadn’t
really seen that from him since he came to L.A. so this is a welcome
change. While he has to be ranked behind Kupp, Higgins and Chase,
Beckham is a nice option as the fourth-best receiver in the Super
Bowl.
WIth Beckham really taking a strong grasp of the WR2 spot in Los
Angeles, second-year wide receiver Van Jefferson has taken a backseat,
especially late in the season and into the playoffs. The former
second-round draft pick has now failed to catch more than two
passes in seven of his past eight contests and has scored just
one touchdown over that stretch. He’s an under-the-radar
option and he could end up breaking loose for a deep score, but
he’s not someone you should be banking on in the Super Bowl.
Tight end Tyler Higbee has become the defacto WR3 for the Rams
late in the season and he’s now averaging over four catches
per game over his past seven contests. That’s not anything
spectacular and considering he’s questionable to play due
to a knee injury, DFS players might be wise to punt the position
overall in favor of upgrades at WR and RB.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: Cam Akers has been the workhorse for the
Rams throughout the playoffs and his 54 carries should have fantasy
managers excited for what could end up being a shootout. The Bengals
are a decent defense, but they’re definitely beatable and
Akers should get plenty of opportunities to show off his recovered
Achilles’ in this one.
The only real concern here is that, while Akers has far out-touched
him in the playoffs, Sony Michel is still an active member of
the Rams roster and someone who could absolutely step in and take
some touches, particularly if Akers struggles out of the gate.
Michel’s usage has been erratic at best during the playoffs
as he touched the ball 11 times in the NFC Championship and 13
times in the Wild Card round, but just three times in the Divisional
round. It’s that potential complete bust potential that
makes Michel extremely dangerous to use for fantasy, but he is
enough of a threat to push Akers down to the RB2 spot for the
Super Bowl.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Former Heisman trophy winning quarterback Joe Burrow
now has the chance to become a Super Bowl champion in just his
second professional season. Burrow went on a tear this year, particularly
down the stretch, and he certainly has been the leader of what
has become one of the league’s most high-powered offenses.
Burrow has thrown 12 touchdown passes with just two interceptions
over his past five starts, including the playoffs. Perhaps most
impressively is that Burrow has bucked the trend of rookie quarterbacks
typically only being able to deliver one fantasy-relevant pass
catcher, as both Tee Higgins and rookie Ja’Marr Chase have
been high quality fantasy assets.
Passing
Game Thoughts: For years Matthew Stafford was blamed
by the media for failing to carry his Detroit Lions out of the
league’s toilet, but he’s now getting a chance to
shut everyone up in his first season in Los Angeles. Stafford’s
Rams are the betting favorite playing at their home stadium in
what will truly be a defining moment in Stafford’s chances
of potentially being a Hall of Famer. 
