Every year, rest assured someone at some point during each of
your drafts will utter some variation of the words “value
pick.” But what exactly is a value pick? What is value?
Value is a relative term that changes based on public perception.
When I consider value, I’m looking for a positive return
on my investment. Just because a player has an a 4th round ADP
and is still available in the 6th round does not make him good
value. At the same time, taking a player a round or two above
his ADP is not necessarily bad value.
My goal in every pick I make is to take a player I believe will
have a higher ADP the following season. Last season, Devonta Freeman
had an 8th round ADP. This year, he has a 2nd round ADP. Freeman
gave owners one hell of a positive return on investment. On the
flip side, Jeremy Hill had a 2nd round ADP. This year, he has
a 6th round ADP. That’s the type of pick we all hope to
avoid.
Let’s take a look at which quarterbacks I expect to outperform
and underperform their ADPs.
Russell Wilson: It's difficult to label
the QB4 as being undervalued unless you think he's the QB1.
The case for Wilson being undervalued:
He was the top fantasy QB over the second half of last season
and is poised to continue that dominance.
The case against Wilson being undervalued:
The Seahawks have historically been a run dominant offense which
caps Wilson’s ceiling.
Verdict: I am not a Russell
Wilson fan. I have my reasons, but that does not take away
from how I judge him as a football player. The guy is simply incredible.
Over his final seven games last season (24 TDs, 1 INT), Wilson
threw multiple touchdowns in all of them and had at least three
touchdowns in all but one. He was remarkably efficient and should
be in line for a season long volume increase as the Seahawks transition
away from a run-heavy offense with the departure of Marshawn
Lynch (retirement). I don’t have to like it, but I have to
respect it. I am not an advocate for QB early, but Wilson is the
fourth QB off the board based on ADP. I have him ranked No.1 at
the position.
The case for Mariota being undervalued:
He showed flashes of brilliance in his rookie year and has the
tools to take the next step in his second season.
The case against Mariota being undervalued:
He struggled with consistency in his rookie year and the Titans
are gearing up to be a run-heavy offense.
Verdict: I’m all in on Mariota
in 2016. Last year, I thought Jameis Winston was the real deal
and Mariota was a bust. After watching them both, I think I had
it backwards. Mariota had four games with at least three touchdowns
in 2015. While injury remains a concern (five games missed in
2015), there is virtually no risk attached to his 13th round ADP.
Mariota did do most of his damage against weaker opponents (JAX,
NO, TB, IND) last year, but the good news is his 2016 schedule
is mostly favorable as well. With an improved surrounding cast
at the skill positions and offensive line, Mariota is poised to
vastly improve upon his QB24 finish from a year ago. After the
top six quarterbacks (7 counting Brady), there’s not much
separating the reset. Mariota is the 20th QB taken on average
and has top 5 upside.
The case for Flacco being undervalued:
He was on pace to set career highs in many areas before he tore
his ACL in the tenth game of the season in 2015.
The case against Flacco being undervalued:
He’s never had a 4,000-yard or 30-touchdown season and is now
on the wrong side of 30, coming off a torn ACL.
Verdict: If you extrapolate Flacco’s
numbers to assume a full season, did you know he would have led
the NFL in pass attempts? He also would have accumulated a career
high 4,465 passing yards. It’s a popular misconception,
but the Ravens are no longer a run dominant team. For perspective,
Andy Dalton is the 15th QB off the board according to ADP. Flacco,
in three fewer games, had 27 more pass attempts than Dalton last
season. The Ravens throw and they throw a lot. With Flacco’s
improving completion percentage (64.4% in 2015) combined with
the increased volume, he has QB1 potential and he’s barely
being drafted.
The case for Bortles being overvalued:
TD regression is coming and Bortles benefited from favorable game
scripts in 2015.
The case against Bortles being overvalued:
The supporting cast is above average and the favorable game scripts
should continue in 2016.
Verdict: The caliber of professional
quarterback Bortles is really does not matter. He is good enough
to start in the NFL and has zero risk of losing his job. The problem
is how much he relied on having to “chuck-chuck-chuck”
in 2015. Bortles accounted for almost 18 percent of his yardage
and 23 percent of his touchdowns in the final five minutes of
games when the Jaguars were down by multiple scores. The Jags,
seemingly, improved considerably on the defensive side of the
ball this year. Furthermore, the Jaguars signed Chris Ivory (for
way too much money, but that’s beside the point) and still
have T.J. Yeldon. They clearly plan to run more, specifically
in the red zone, in 2016. Bortles led the league in red zone passing
attempts last year but with the additions in the backfield, I
can’t imagine he comes anywhere close to the 45 passes he
attempted inside the 10-yard line again. I don’t expect
Bortles to change much as a player, but do expect a substantial
decrease in volume, which renders Bortles overvalued as the 9th
QB taken.
The case for Rivers being overvalued:
He was a fringe QB1 last year despite a massive increase in passing
volume.
The case against Rivers being overvalued:
He started off strong and showed no signs of slowing down, but
by the second half of the season he had you and me out there catching
passes.
Verdict: Rivers led the league
in pass attempts last year with 661 while his previous high was
582 in 2011. Despite a higher completion percentage and the aforementioned
significantly higher attempt total, Rivers actually had more yards
and only two fewer touchdowns in his 2011 season. He may have
showed signs of slowing down in the second half last year, but
that’s par for the course. Rivers has always struggled in
the second half, likely due in part to the beating he takes behind
the five men standing in front of him masquerading as an offensive
line. Rivers is the 11th QB off the board on average and I don’t
see any reason to burn a 9th round pick on a QB when other options
(Derek Carr, Tyrod Taylor) taken after him have a higher ceiling.
The case for Cousins being overvalued:
Are we forgetting that Cousins was nearly benched for Colt
McCoy midway through last season?
The case against Cousins being overvalued:
The five games with multiple touchdowns are the rule and the other
11 are the exception.
Verdict: I will forever hold Cousins
in high regard for his legendary post game “You Like That?!”
outburst from last season’s comeback win against the Bucs.
Cousins’ 2015 stats were bolstered by an epic late season
surge in the season’s final three contests where he threw
10 touchdowns, rushed for 1, and didn’t throw an interception.
Before those three games, Cousins had a 19-11 TD-to-INT ratio,
which is fine, but not exactly QB1 worthy. Cousins also rushed
for five scores, something he is unlikely to repeat. He is being
drafted as a fringe QB1 as the 14th QB taken, but his skills are
not special and he’s best viewed as someone to exploit during
favorable matchups. He will never be a “set it and forget
it” type player for fantasy owners. There will be a time
and a place to use Cousins this year, but the same can be said
about each of the 11 QBs taken after him. If the Captain is going
down with his ship this season, I’d prefer to not be aboard.
