Rest assured someone at some point during each of your drafts
will utter some variation of the words “value pick.”
But what exactly is a value pick? What is value? Value is a relative
term that changes based on public perception. When I consider
value, I’m looking for a positive return on my investment.
Just because a player has an a fourth round ADP and is still sitting
there in the sixth round does not make him good value. At the
same time, taking a player a round or two above his ADP is not
necessarily bad value. Again, everything is relative.
Last season, JuJu Smith-Schuster had a 4th round ADP. This year,
he has a second round ADP. JuJu gave owners one hell of a positive
return on investment. On the flip side, Chris Hogan had a fourth
round ADP. This year, he’s going undrafted. That’s
the type of pick we all hope to avoid.
Let’s take a look at which WRs I expect to outperform their ADPs
and which I expect to fail.
The case for Lockett being undervalued: He’s
locked in as Seattle’s WR1 and it is impossible for the team to
throw less than it did last season.
The case against Lockett being undervalued:
His 2018 efficiency is simply impossible to replicate and regression
in catch rate and touchdowns is inevitable.
Verdict: Lockett first appeared on this list
back in 2016 when I thought he would overtake Doug
Baldwin as Seattle’s WR1. Three years and a Baldwin retirement
later leaves Lockett as the unquestioned top option in Seattle’s
passing game.
Baldwin vacates 73 targets in a year where Russell Wilson attempted
a league low 427 passes. Lockett only saw 70 targets in a full
16-game season and caught a touchdown on an absurd 14% of them.
That touchdown rate is undoubtedly going down, but the volume
has to go up. Seattle projects to have one of the worst defenses
in the league and they face a lot of strong offenses (NO, LARx2,
CLE, ATL, TB). As much as they want to run the ball, game script
may force their hand.
From 2015-2017, Baldwin averaged 114 targets a season. It would
be shocking if Lockett didn’t reach 100 targets this season.
Even assuming his 81.4% catch rate dips closer to his career average
of 70.3%, we’re still looking at a 70-catch, 1000-yard season.
And those estimates are conservative as there is plenty room for
growth in the volume department. The most pass heavy teams attempt
600+ passes. If Wilson somehow is allowed to throw the ball closer
to 550 times, Lockett can easily reach WR1 numbers. Lockett is
going as a low-end WR2 because many people fear Seattle’s
backwards offensive philosophy and understand how ridiculously
efficient he was in 2018. Increased volume will make up for the
decreased efficiency and the upside if things break right is league
winning.
The case for Robinson being undervalued: He’s
a lock to lead the Bears in targets and has showcased elite WR1
ability in the past.
The case against Robinson being undervalued:
He hasn’t been productive since 2015 and Mitch Trubisky may the
second coming of Blake
Bortles.
Verdict: Allen Robinson was considered a value
last season as well, but ultimately underperformed expectations.
The problem was not Robinson; it was the expectations, particularly
those of a wide receiver joining a new team coming off a torn
ACL.
Robinson is now two years removed from his injury and was starting
to heat up late last season. Robinson averaged eight targets over
his final four regular season games and had a monster performance
in the Bears lone playoff game, ripping off 143 yards on 10 of
13 targets with a touchdown. While it is important to resist the
vividness bias of his best game coming on a national stage in
the playoffs, it is important to remember what Robinson is capable
of as a talent. You don’t win leagues by drafting safe,
floor players in the middle rounds. You win by drafting players
that outperform their ADP. Given the volatility of defensive performance
and particularly turnovers from year to year, it is reasonable
to assume the Bears regress defensively. They are going to see
more negative game script and they are not winning 12 games again.
Trubisky will have to throw more and his primary target is going
to be Robinson.
There is a very strong chance Robinson averages eight or nine
targets per game and what if Trubisky takes a step forward and
becomes more consistent? The upside is still WR1 and the risk
is minimal given his mid WR3 price tag.
The case for Samuel being undervalued: He’s
the clear WR2 in Carolina and saw his snap count skyrocket in
the second half of 2018.
The case against Samuel being undervalued: Samuel
is certainly not ahead of D.J.
Moore and Cam
Newton has never supported a second wide receiver.
Verdict: Curtis Samuel’s ADP is broken and I guarantee
you it rises throughout the month of August. I still think he
will be undervalued regardless because the problem is less about
Samuel’s ADP and more how far away he is from D.J. Moore.
Why is Moore considered a clear top 24 WR, but Samuel can’t
even crack the top 40?
Samuel is one of the fastest players in the league and capable
of taking any touch to the house. He’s entering his third
NFL season and he’s just 23 years old. He played at a big
time school in Ohio State and was a second round pick. He checks
all of the boxes for a breakout WR, yet no one seems to care.
Samuel became a fantastic route runner last season and was excellent
whenever he touched the ball, averaging 2.1 fantasy points per
target, 16th in the league. Samuel saw 65 targets last season
which should easily push 100 this year. His 60% catch rate has
room to improve and he should tack on 100 yards and a score on
the ground.
Samuel is an elite athlete with splash play ability playing on
a good offense as the clear third option in the passing game (behind
Christian McCaffrey and Moore). His target share is not going
to be much lower than Moore’s and if I had to bet on one
player in all of fantasy football to finish above his ADP, it
would be Curtis Samuel.
The case for Thomas being overvalued: His 85%
catch rate is just insane and he’s one of the most volatile wide
receivers in fantasy.
The case against Thomas being overvalued: He
should see a similar target count and Drew
Brees has been the most accurate QB in the league for the
past two seasons.
Verdict: I am not anti-Michael Thomas. He is an excellent wide
receiver and he is going to finish as a WR1, likely a top six
wide receiver. My issue is that he is going higher than similar
WRs with better season-long ceilings, higher weekly ceilings,
and with more consistency week-to-week.
Thomas is in one of the lowest volume passing offenses in the
league. Brees attempted just 489 passes last season, down from
an already low 536 in 2017 and gone are the days of Brees tossing
it up 600+ times. Thomas is the clear WR1 in New Orleans and is
going to maintain a near 30% target share but there isn’t
much room for improvement. He could conceivably see a few more
targets, but it is foolish to expect an 85% catch rate again.
Even a drop to the high 70s would be impactful.
I am confident Thomas’ numbers will be there at the end
of the season, but fantasy football is a weekly game and Thomas
is going ahead of far more consistent WRs such as Julio Jones,
Tyreek Hill, Odell Beckham Jr., and JuJu Smith-Schuster. I am
not suggesting it is necessarily wrong to take Thomas over these
guys as Thomas has a level of safety regarding his health, offense,
and target share that the others don’t clearly have. But
Thomas is volatile and so reliant on volume. What if the Saints
have a better defense and more positive game script?
Thomas is incapable of producing passable numbers without double-digit
targets. Of course ever WR is better when he sees 10+ targets,
but the difference between Thomas and the other elite WRs is that
Thomas needs 10 targets. He produced just one WR1 week last season
with fewer than 10 targets and it was on a week where he caught
all eight of his targets and scored twice. Guys like Hill, Beckham,
and JuJu can have a five or six target game and still give you
a splash play to salvage the week. Thomas does not have that in
his repertoire.
He had five weeks outside of the top 36 WRs last season. He had
just eight receptions of at least 30 yards. In his career, he’s
scored exactly two touchdowns of longer than 25 yards. That is
by far the lowest number out of the elite WRs. The final numbers
will be there, but Thomas was the third least consistent WR last
season and is too heavily reliant on volume to be going in the
first round as the WR3.
The case for Cooper being overvalued: He’s inconsistent
week-to-week and the Cowboys are a low volume passing attack.
The case against Cooper being overvalued: He’s
an elite talent and has now had a full offseason to learn the
playbook and develop chemistry with Dak
Prescott.
Verdict: Cooper has been in the league since 2015. Through four
seasons, he has yet to finish higher than his ADP. Yet, Cooper
is being drafted as a near WR1 despite having never been a WR1
in his career.
I’m a Cowboys fan. I like Cooper. But I couldn’t
be more out on him in fantasy. Remember how Michael Thomas was
the third most volatile WR in weekly fantasy scoring? You’ll
never guess who No.1 was! This notion that Cooper was more consistent
with the Cowboys is false. Cooper played nine games with Dallas
last season. He was the overall WR1 twice. He was a WR2 twice.
He was a WR3 once. The other four games he was somewhere between
a low WR4 and a WR7.
Unlike Thomas, we can’t point to a single factor dictating
when he produced. Cooper’s first overall WR1 week came with
single-digit targets and one of his WR4 or lower weeks came with
double-digit targets.
Cooper also scored multiple long touchdowns last season that
he had no business scoring where the defender simply fell down.
He also has the splash play in his arsenal (14 career touchdowns
from 30+ yards), but more concerning is his lack of red zone productivity.
Out of Cooper’s 25 career touchdowns, just five have come
from inside the 10-yard line.
Cooper should see more consistent targeting this year, but nothing
about his first four seasons suggests he will produce consistently.
Until I see it, I cannot spend a third round pick on him.
The case for Allison being overvalued: He is
the least talented WR on the Packers depth chart and should be
easily passed by more talented options.
The case against Allison being overvalued: The
Packers WR2 job is wide open and whoever lands it should have
value.
Verdict: Allison is entering his fourth season and he has yet
to breakout. History does not favor any wide receivers breaking
out later than their third season and the deck is more heavily
stacked against a UDFA.
In terms of athleticism, Allison is bottom of the barrel. His
speed score is 23rd percentile. His burst score is 43rd percentile.
His agility score is 6th percentile. His catch radius is 29th
percentile. He wasn’t a dominant college producer and he
broke out (in college) after the age of 20 (not ideal).
In 30 career games with the Packers, he’s amassed just
758 yards on 55 receptions. The Packers drafted three receivers
last season, all of whom are more talented than Allison. Between
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown, J’Mon Moore,
and Jake Kumerow, it is unlikely that Allison is the guy that
will emerge. Even if Allison is getting the courtesy nod in Week
1, he could quickly fall out of favor. Wide receiver is not like
running back where any replacement level player getting meaningful
touches can produce. If Allison is not producing, he will be displaced.
There is a chance Allison opens the season as the primary slot
WR and the third option in the passing game with Davante Adams
and MVS on the outside. Best-case scenario is Allison is able
to produce WR3 numbers. Worst case is he loses his job and you
drop him in September (if not sooner). There are dozens of WRs
going after Allison that have more upside. Do not waste your eighth
round pick on a, low-ceiling player.
